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Last Updated: August 19, 2016

100% Rebate on Slot Losses

Introduction



In the year prior to the writing of this page, I've known of two casinos that offered 100% rebate on slot losses promotions. What this means is that the casino will refund all documented losses on slot machines within the promotional period of time. Usually the refund is given in the forum of free play, and may be broken down in installments, to keep you coming back.

This type of promotion can be very lucrative. This page endeavors to show how much the player can expect to win and what winning goal the player should set.

Strategy



If video poker is allowed under a slot rebate promotion, then the player should consider that option. However, if casino management is smart, then they will either exclude video poker or remove the high-denomination games from eligibility. It may be that high-denomination slot machines are the better game to play under a 100% loss rebate promotion, depending on exact rules and game availability.

Normally volatility is the enemy of the advantage player, but when trying to exploit a loss rebate, it is your friend. You don't want the house edge to grind you down, but your goal should be to quickly hit your winning goal, or go bust trying. That said, you should make the largest wagers possible. This will probably be 2 or 3 credits on a $100-denomination single-line game. As an example of such a game, this page is based on the single-line Double Diamond slot machine.

It is critical to know what return the slot machine is set to so you can make a correct decision in regards to your winning goal. Unfortunately, the player is unlikely to acquire this information. High-denomination slots are generally set to pay a higher return. For example, in Las Vegas, $25 and up slots tend to be set to a return of about 95%. However, if casino management is smart, they will temporarily set their machines to a lower return during the promotion. The lowest return most slots can be set to is about 85%. Without knowing any other information, I would suggest being conservative by assuming an 85% return during a 100% loss rebate promotion.

For those unfamiliar with how slot machines work, these returns are just theoretical averages, an no guarantee over short-term results. Each play of a slot machine is independent of the past. The laws of probability dictate that if a machine has an expected win per play of 95% (for example) of money bet, then the more the game is played, the more the actual return of the game will get close to 95%. This is true of any form of gambling. In mathematics, it is known as the Law of Large Numbers.

Example



For example, for an 85% machine and 800-credit maximum loss, the table below shows the optimal goal is a win of 120 units, with an expected win of 72.74 units, and a probability of success of 28.05%. However, for practical purposes, notice how the expected win is almost as high for much smaller win goals. Factoring in the Kelly Criterion and the lost time having to return to collect the rebate, I think a reasonable target is about half the optimal winning goal.

For those who don't understand what I mean by a "unit," it means a total bet. In the example above, if you bet 2 credits on a $100-denomination game, then a unit is $200. A winning goal of 60 units would have an expected win of 67.16 credits. At $200 a bet, that would be an expected win of $200 × 67.16 = $13,432.

800-Credit Bankroll



In all tables the optimal goal, to the nearest ten units, is highlighted in green.

85% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 800 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 43.00 65.69%
20 52.37 57.06%
30 58.03 51.35%
40 61.65 47.01%
50 64.88 43.34%
60 67.16 40.44%
70 68.83 37.79%
80 70.05 35.37%
90 71.17 33.24%
100 72.10 31.32%
110 72.46 29.57%
120 72.74 28.05%
130 72.73 26.54%
140 72.49 25.22%
150 72.41 24.00%

90% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 800 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 57.93 66.72%
40 72.48 57.15%
60 81.30 50.51%
80 87.11 45.38%
100 91.17 41.08%
120 93.87 37.49%
140 95.57 34.40%
160 96.61 31.59%
180 97.03 29.17%
190 97.05 28.10%
200 96.99 27.11%
220 96.59 25.30%
240 95.93 23.68%
260 95.05 22.21%
280 93.97 20.85%
300 92.69 19.58%

95% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 800 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 93.41 69.37%
100 121.56 58.39%
150 138.56 50.41%
200 149.28 44.11%
250 155.46 39.18%
300 158.82 35.05%
350 160.13 31.47%
360 160.19 30.83%
400 159.86 28.48%
450 158.46 25.94%
500 156.24 23.74%
550 153.35 21.78%
600 149.93 20.03%

98% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 800 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 141.97 71.77%
200 193.96 59.88%
300 225.27 51.53%
400 245.46 45.04%
500 257.80 39.97%
600 265.08 35.82%
700 268.63 32.24%
790 269.56 29.32%
800 269.51 29.01%
900 268.01 26.03%
1000 264.55 23.40%

400-Credit Bankroll

85% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 400 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 36.54 62.84%
20 44.70 53.51%
30 49.36 47.55%
40 52.50 43.01%
50 54.78 39.19%
60 56.35 36.08%
70 57.46 33.42%
80 58.25 30.98%
90 58.76 28.80%
100 59.04 26.83%
110 59.13 25.10%
120 59.05 23.56%
130 58.85 22.15%
140 58.55 20.83%
150 58.14 19.58%
160 57.64 18.38%
170 57.11 17.32%
180 56.54 16.40%
190 55.97 15.58%
200 55.37 14.83%

90% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 400 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 38.64 71.54%
20 49.51 62.89%
30 56.39 57.02%
40 61.36 52.45%
50 65.23 48.57%
60 68.20 45.31%
70 70.54 42.49%
80 72.45 39.91%
90 73.99 37.57%
100 75.20 35.43%
110 76.13 33.50%
120 76.82 31.76%
130 77.31 30.15%
140 77.63 28.64%
150 77.82 27.22%
160 77.88 25.85%
170 77.81 24.60%
180 77.65 23.47%
190 77.42 22.44%
200 77.12 21.50%

95% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 400 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 54.52 74.39%
40 71.45 65.81%
60 83.16 59.41%
80 91.83 54.29%
100 98.67 49.89%
120 104.00 46.12%
140 108.20 42.81%
160 111.59 39.78%
180 114.21 37.10%
200 116.15 34.76%
220 117.56 32.68%
240 118.57 30.81%
260 119.20 29.11%
280 119.55 27.55%
300 119.61 26.09%
320 119.45 24.72%
340 119.11 23.47%
360 118.65 22.36%
380 118.06 21.35%
400 117.37 20.43%

98% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 400 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 84.94 71.73%
100 114.68 61.02%
150 134.84 53.17%
200 149.31 46.95%
250 159.55 42.12%
300 167.04 38.13%
350 172.49 34.73%
400 176.22 31.92%
450 178.71 29.61%
500 180.26 27.63%
550 181.12 25.90%
600 181.43 24.36%
610 181.47 24.07%
650 181.31 22.96%
700 180.76 21.66%
750 179.83 20.43%
800 178.62 19.26%

200-Credit Bankroll

85% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 200 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 29.38 58.48%
20 35.55 48.38%
30 38.88 42.09%
40 40.97 37.40%
50 42.36 33.53%
60 43.22 30.45%
70 43.72 27.86%
80 43.97 25.52%
90 44.01 23.48%
100 43.90 21.66%

90% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 200 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 30.95 66.49%
20 39.20 56.66%
30 44.17 50.17%
40 47.57 45.26%
50 50.08 41.18%
60 51.89 37.84%
70 53.21 35.01%
80 54.20 32.48%
90 54.91 30.22%
100 55.38 28.19%
110 55.67 26.42%
120 55.79 24.85%
130 55.78 23.42%
140 55.67 22.08%
150 55.46 20.81%

95% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 200 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 43.35 66.65%
40 55.48 56.38%
60 63.22 49.15%
80 68.48 43.67%
100 72.31 39.15%
120 75.00 35.47%
140 76.90 32.34%
160 78.26 29.53%
180 79.15 27.10%
200 79.63 25.02%
220 79.83 23.22%
230 79.84 22.40%
240 79.79 21.63%
260 79.55 20.18%
280 79.15 18.87%
300 78.60 17.65%

98% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 200 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 65.69 60.12%
100 84.29 47.61%
150 95.13 39.45%
200 102.08 33.45%
250 106.36 29.05%
300 109.07 25.55%
350 110.70 22.62%
400 111.50 20.29%
440 111.68 18.75%
450 111.68 18.41%
500 111.48 16.87%

100-Credit Bankroll

85% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 100 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 22.24 51.58%
20 26.38 40.58%
30 28.35 34.13%
40 29.40 29.55%
50 29.97 25.96%
60 30.20 23.26%
70 30.21 21.04%
80 30.06 19.00%
90 29.79 17.21%
100 29.42 15.63%

90% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 100 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 23.47 58.86%
20 29.10 47.64%
30 32.17 40.67%
40 34.07 35.66%
50 35.32 31.70%
60 36.09 28.64%
70 36.55 26.13%
80 36.82 23.88%
90 36.91 21.90%
100 36.88 20.12%
110 36.74 18.58%
120 36.51 17.23%
130 36.23 16.03%
140 35.88 14.92%
150 35.48 13.88%

95% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 100 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 32.49 55.89%
40 40.01 44.27%
60 44.14 36.93%
80 46.56 31.77%
100 48.12 27.65%
120 49.04 24.40%
140 49.51 21.73%
160 49.67 19.38%
180 49.59 17.44%
200 49.36 15.90%

98% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 100 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 46.93 46.01%
100 56.31 33.51%
150 60.90 26.15%
200 63.30 21.20%
250 64.36 18.01%
300 64.74 15.53%
310 64.75 15.08%
350 64.66 13.46%
400 64.29 11.85%
450 63.74 10.58%
500 63.07 9.57%

50-Credit Bankroll

85% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 50 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 15.72 42.62%
20 18.08 31.05%
30 18.95 24.94%
40 19.26 20.89%
50 19.30 17.84%
60 19.18 15.60%
70 18.96 13.81%
80 18.65 12.24%
90 18.30 10.95%
100 17.93 9.88%

90% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 50 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 16.70 49.08%
20 20.05 36.80%
30 21.59 29.88%
40 22.37 25.27%
50 22.77 21.81%
60 22.92 19.22%
70 22.92 17.17%
80 22.81 15.40%
90 22.63 13.92%
100 22.41 12.67%

95% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 50 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 18.24 54.87%
20 22.60 43.12%
30 24.97 36.17%
40 26.45 31.38%
50 27.47 27.64%
60 28.16 24.77%
70 28.63 22.47%
80 28.95 20.49%
90 29.16 18.80%
100 29.28 17.36%
110 29.32 16.17%
120 29.32 15.14%
130 29.26 14.20%
140 29.17 13.32%
150 29.05 12.47%

98% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 50 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 24.32 46.70%
40 29.16 35.33%
60 31.74 28.78%
80 33.33 24.34%
100 34.39 21.03%
120 35.06 18.65%
140 35.50 16.70%
160 35.83 14.94%
180 36.02 13.46%
200 36.12 12.29%
220 36.14 11.32%
240 36.12 10.52%
260 36.07 9.85%
280 35.98 9.28%
300 35.85 8.72%

25-Credit Bankroll

85% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 25 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 10.38 32.66%
20 11.41 21.67%
30 11.63 16.53%
40 11.57 13.24%
50 11.38 10.88%

90% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 25 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 11.14 37.97%
20 12.75 25.94%
30 13.30 19.94%
40 13.48 16.14%
50 13.47 13.40%
60 13.38 11.60%
70 13.23 10.27%
80 13.05 9.14%
90 12.83 8.14%
100 12.58 7.26%

95% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 25 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 12.27 42.19%
20 14.50 30.24%
30 15.50 24.07%
40 16.04 20.06%
50 16.36 17.06%
60 16.52 14.98%
70 16.58 13.42%
80 16.59 12.12%
90 16.56 10.97%
100 16.49 9.96%

98% Double Diamond — Max Loss = 25 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 15.66 32.62%
40 17.77 22.50%
60 18.69 17.41%
80 19.15 14.40%
100 19.42 12.09%
120 19.55 10.48%
140 19.59 9.39%
150 19.59 8.87%
160 19.58 8.33%
180 19.53 7.41%
200 19.46 6.70%

Methodology



This analysis was done using Double Diamond par sheets and many random simulations. The simulations used a Mersenne Twister random number generator.


Written by: Michael Shackleford

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