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Last Updated: August 10, 2019

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Golden Frog Baccarat Side Bets

Introduction

The Golden Frog is a set of four baccarat side bets. I first noticed it at the Palms in Las Vegas on August 8, 2019.

Rules

  1. The Golden Frog are a side bet for baccarat, which I assume the reader is already familiar with.
  2. There are four side bets, which do not have names, as follows:
    • Any 8 beats any 6 — Pays 25 to 1.
    • 2-card 9 beats 2-card 7 — Pays 50 to 1.
    • 3-card 9 beats 3-card 1 — Pays 150 to 1.
    • 3-card 9 beats 3-card 7 — Pays 200 to 1.

With all beats, it does not matter which sides beats which.

Any 8 Beats Any 6 Analysis

The following table shows my analysis of the any 8 Beats any 6 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 21.79%

Any 8 Beats any 6

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
8 beats 6 25 150,358,085,283,840 0.030081 0.752031
All other -1 4,848,040,190,219,520 0.969919 -0.969919
Total   4,998,398,275,503,360 1.000000 -0.217887

2-Card 9 Beats 2-Card 7 Analysis

The following table shows my analysis of the 2-Card 9 Beats 2-Card 7 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 8.10%

2-Card 9 Beats 2-Card 7

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
2-card 9 beats 2-card 7 50 90,066,027,282,432 0.018019 0.900949
All other -1 4,908,332,248,220,930 0.981981 -0.981981
Total   4,998,398,275,503,360 1.000000 -0.081032

3-card 9 beats 3-card 1 Analysis

The following table shows my analysis of the 3-card 9 beats 3-card 1 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 13.87%

3-card 9 beats 3-card 1

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
3-card 9 beats 3-card 1 150 28,511,182,835,712 0.005704 0.855610
All other -1 4,969,887,092,667,650 0.994296 -0.994296
Total   4,998,398,275,503,360 1.000000 -0.138686

3-card 9 beats 3-card 7 Analysis

The following table shows my analysis of the 3-card 9 beats 3-card 7 bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 11.89%

3-card 9 beats 3-card 7

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
3-card 9 beats 3-card 7 200 21,911,654,125,568 0.004384 0.876747
All other -1 4,976,486,621,377,790 0.995616 -0.995616
Total   4,998,398,275,503,360 1.000000 -0.118869

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