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Last Updated: Sep. 9, 2015

Matching Dragon


The Matching Dragon is a baccarat side bet found somewhere in Macau. I heard it can be found at the Lisboa, but my source wasn't sure.

It is actually 13 side bets, one for each rank. The player is paid according to the number of cards of the chosen rank that appear in the next hand. It does not matter how many cards are dealt the next hand, four to six, they all count. Following is the pay table. All wins are on a "to one" basis.

Matching Dragon Pay Table

Matching
Cards
Pay Table 1 Pay Table 2
6 100 100
5 60 60
4 40 30
3 20 15
2 3 2
1 1 1
0 Loss Loss

Example: Consider the following hands:

Player: Q22
Banker: KQ2

A bet on a 2 would have paid 20 to 1 for three twos, Q 3 to 1 for two queens, K 1 to 1 for one king, and the other 10 bets would have lost.

The next table shows the number of combinations for each total number of cards for each rank, based on an eight-deck game.

Matching Dragon CombinationsExpand

Rank Total to Appear
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
A 3,372,235,347,405,820 1,376,864,854,298,620 227,334,747,041,792 20,748,232,028,160 1,174,231,511,040 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
2 3,374,205,845,711,870 1,372,886,682,968,060 229,384,762,118,144 20,753,336,463,360 1,130,651,443,200 36,344,340,480 652,458,240
3 3,375,668,306,236,410 1,368,547,890,921,470 233,294,440,835,072 20,047,474,974,720 840,162,535,680 0 0
4 3,376,297,590,838,270 1,365,203,603,582,970 237,624,138,319,872 18,841,460,736,000 431,482,026,240 0 0
5 3,369,867,624,655,870 1,381,466,839,506,940 225,192,490,123,264 20,626,123,653,120 1,201,241,210,880 43,303,895,040 652,458,240
6 3,360,312,058,915,840 1,398,234,533,609,470 219,826,491,219,968 18,905,100,472,320 1,079,228,067,840 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
7 3,360,436,360,129,530 1,396,785,482,645,500 222,199,903,375,360 17,958,953,410,560 986,765,414,400 30,158,069,760 652,458,240
8 3,341,662,250,324,990 1,429,319,839,928,320 212,157,913,151,488 14,755,316,551,680 502,955,546,880 0 0
9 3,345,838,246,777,850 1,419,219,581,763,580 219,618,524,149,760 13,491,384,115,200 230,538,696,960 0 0
10 3,372,222,296,173,560 1,376,888,919,302,140 227,325,253,173,248 20,746,767,360,000 1,174,176,276,480 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
J 3,372,222,296,173,560 1,376,888,919,302,140 227,325,253,173,248 20,746,767,360,000 1,174,176,276,480 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
Q 3,372,222,296,173,560 1,376,888,919,302,140 227,325,253,173,248 20,746,767,360,000 1,174,176,276,480 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
K 3,372,222,296,173,560 1,376,888,919,302,140 227,325,253,173,248 20,746,767,360,000 1,174,176,276,480 40,210,759,680 652,458,240

The next table shows the probability for each total number of cards for each rank, based on an eight-deck game.

Matching Dragon Probabilities

Rank Total to Appear
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
A 0.67466319 0.27546121 0.04548152 0.00415098 0.00023492 0.00000804 0.00000013
2 0.67505742 0.27466532 0.04589165 0.00415200 0.00022620 0.00000727 0.00000013
3 0.67535001 0.27379729 0.04667384 0.00401078 0.00016809 0.00000000 0.00000000
4 0.67547590 0.27312822 0.04754006 0.00376950 0.00008632 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 0.67418950 0.27638191 0.04505293 0.00412655 0.00024033 0.00000866 0.00000013
6 0.67227777 0.27973652 0.04397939 0.00378223 0.00021591 0.00000804 0.00000013
7 0.67230264 0.27944662 0.04445422 0.00359294 0.00019742 0.00000603 0.00000013
8 0.66854662 0.28595557 0.04244518 0.00295201 0.00010062 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 0.66938208 0.28393487 0.04393778 0.00269914 0.00004612 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 0.67466058 0.27546603 0.04547962 0.00415068 0.00023491 0.00000804 0.00000013
J 0.67466058 0.27546603 0.04547962 0.00415068 0.00023491 0.00000804 0.00000013
Q 0.67466058 0.27546603 0.04547962 0.00415068 0.00023491 0.00000804 0.00000013
K 0.67466058 0.27546603 0.04547962 0.00415068 0.00023491 0.00000804 0.00000013

The next two tables show the return for each total number of cards for each rank, based on pay tables 1 and 2 and an eight-deck game. The right column shows the total expected return for each of the 13 bets.

Matching Dragon Return Table — Pay Table 1

Rank Total to Appear
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
A -0.674663 0.275461 0.136445 0.083020 0.009397 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169845
2 -0.675057 0.274665 0.137675 0.083040 0.009048 0.000436 0.000013 -0.170180
3 -0.675350 0.273797 0.140022 0.080216 0.006723 0.000000 0.000000 -0.174592
4 -0.675476 0.273128 0.142620 0.075390 0.003453 0.000000 0.000000 -0.180885
5 -0.674189 0.276382 0.135159 0.082531 0.009613 0.000520 0.000013 -0.169972
6 -0.672278 0.279737 0.131938 0.075645 0.008637 0.000483 0.000013 -0.175826
7 -0.672303 0.279447 0.133363 0.071859 0.007897 0.000362 0.000013 -0.179363
8 -0.668547 0.285956 0.127336 0.059040 0.004025 0.000000 0.000000 -0.192190
9 -0.669382 0.283935 0.131813 0.053983 0.001845 0.000000 0.000000 -0.197806
10 -0.674661 0.275466 0.136439 0.083014 0.009396 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169850
11 -0.674661 0.275466 0.136439 0.083014 0.009396 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169850
12 -0.674661 0.275466 0.136439 0.083014 0.009396 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169850
13 -0.674661 0.275466 0.136439 0.083014 0.009396 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169850

Matching Dragon Return Table — Pay Table 2

Rank Total to Appear
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
A -0.674663 0.275461 0.090963 0.062265 0.007048 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238431
2 -0.675057 0.274665 0.091783 0.062280 0.006786 0.000436 0.000013 -0.239093
3 -0.675350 0.273797 0.093348 0.060162 0.005043 0.000000 0.000000 -0.243001
4 -0.675476 0.273128 0.095080 0.056542 0.002590 0.000000 0.000000 -0.248135
5 -0.674189 0.276382 0.090106 0.061898 0.007210 0.000520 0.000013 -0.238061
6 -0.672278 0.279737 0.087959 0.056733 0.006477 0.000483 0.000013 -0.240876
7 -0.672303 0.279447 0.088908 0.053894 0.005922 0.000362 0.000013 -0.243756
8 -0.668547 0.285956 0.084890 0.044280 0.003019 0.000000 0.000000 -0.250402
9 -0.669382 0.283935 0.087876 0.040487 0.001384 0.000000 0.000000 -0.255701
10 -0.674661 0.275466 0.090959 0.062260 0.007047 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238432
11 -0.674661 0.275466 0.090959 0.062260 0.007047 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238432
12 -0.674661 0.275466 0.090959 0.062260 0.007047 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238432
13 -0.674661 0.275466 0.090959 0.062260 0.007047 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238432

It is not difficult to see that this bet would be highly countable, especially with the permissible use of a score card and pen. However, there is a high house edge to overcome as well, especially with pay table 2. Sorry, but you're on your own with that.

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For more baccarat side bets, please see my baccarat appendix 5.