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Last Updated: January 31, 2017

Dragon Dragon Baccarat Progressive

Introduction

The Dragon Dragon Baccarat Progressive is a baccarat side bet I first saw at the Gold Coast in Las Vegas on January 25, 2017. It pays based on the combined cards of the Player and Banker hands. Winning hands range from a three of a kind out of four total cards up to a six of a kind.

Rules



  1. The wager is a flat amount, either $1, $2, or $5, depending on the decision of casino management.
  2. Wins are based on all cards in the Player and Banker hands.
  3. Following is the pay table. Wins are expressed on a "for one" basis.


Pay Table

Event $1 bet $2 bet $5 bet
Six of a kind Jackpot
Five of a kind 10% of Jackpot
Double three of a kind $250 $500 $1,500
Four of a kind $50 $100 $300
Three of a kind out of four cards $25 $50 $150



Notes:
* Jackpot divided among all players who made the Dragon Dragon bet.
** The two three of a kinds can be mixed between the Player and Banker hands. For example, if the Player had QQK and the Banker had KQQ, it would count.
*** Only four total cards qualify for this win. If either the Player and/or Banker draw a card, then any chance of this win will be lost.

Analysis



Following is my analysis of the Dragon Dragon for $1 and $2 bets. Wins are expressed on a "for one" basis, meaning relative to the bet amount and that wagers are never returned, even on a win. The following table shows the same thing for a $5 bet.

Dragon Dragon Return Table for $1 and $2 bets

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Six of a kind Jackpot 5,872,124,160 0.00000117 x
Five of a kind 10% of jackpot 351,070,863,360 0.00007024 y
Double three of a kind 250 616,417,689,600 0.00012332 0.030831
Four of a kind 50 12,273,961,559,040 0.00245558 0.122779
Three of a kind out of four cards 25 32,896,683,048,960 0.00658144 0.164536
Loser 0 4,952,254,270,218,240 0.99076824 0.000000
Total 4,998,398,275,503,360 1.00000000 0.318146+x+y


Dragon Dragon Return Table for a $5 bet

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Six of a kind Jackpot 5,872,124,160 0.00000119 x
Five of a kind 10% of jackpot 351,070,863,360 0.00007089 y
Double three of a kind 300 616,417,689,600 0.00012447 0.037342
Four of a kind 60 12,273,961,559,040 0.00247846 0.148708
Three of a kind out of four cards 30 32,896,683,048,960 0.00664277 0.199283
Loser 0 4,952,254,270,218,240 1.00000000 0.000000
Total 4,998,398,275,503,360 1.00931778 0.385332+x+y


The return of the fixed pay awards is 31.81% for $1 and $2 bets. For $5 bets, it is 38.18%.

The next table shows the break-even meter (the point at which there is no house advantage), depending on the bet size and number of players, including yourself.

Additional Return per $10,000 in the Meter

Players $1 bet $2 bet $5 bet
1 1.877% 0.939% 0.375%
2 0.939% 0.469% 0.188%
3 0.626% 0.313% 0.125%
4 0.469% 0.235% 0.094%
5 0.375% 0.188% 0.075%
6 0.313% 0.156% 0.063%
7 0.268% 0.134% 0.054%
8 0.235% 0.117% 0.047%

The next table shows the break-even meter, at which point there is no house advantage, depending on the bet size and number of players, including yourself.

Break-even Points

Players $1 bet $2 bet $5 bet
1 $83,168.48 $166,336.96 $377,036.89
2 $166,336.96 $332,673.92 $754,073.77
3 $249,505.44 $499,010.89 $1,131,110.66
4 $332,673.92 $665,347.85 $1,508,147.54
5 $415,842.41 $831,684.81 $1,885,184.43
6 $499,010.89 $998,021.77 $2,262,221.32
7 $582,179.37 $1,164,358.74 $2,639,258.20






Written by:
Michael Shackleford

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