Share this

Wizard Recommends

Last Updated: August 22, 2016

On This Page

Baccarat Odds Given Known Card

Introduction

There are ways of knowing the exact position of a particular card in baccarat. By counting down the cards, the player will know when exactly to expect the known card. Lest any advantage players get angry at me who already know how to do this, I won't reveal the secret. However, I will present the following tables showing the probability of winning and expected value (EV) of all three bets given the position of the known card. Cells in red indicate a positive expected value.

Position = 1 or 3

Card Player
Probability
Banker
Probability
Tie
Probability
Player
EV
Banker
EV
Tie
EV
0 0.415228 0.495203 0.089568 -0.079975 0.055215 -0.193885
1 0.415476 0.493789 0.090736 -0.078313 0.053623 -0.183380
2 0.417197 0.490844 0.091959 -0.073647 0.049105 -0.172366
3 0.419852 0.487016 0.093132 -0.067164 0.042814 -0.161815
4 0.423290 0.479533 0.097177 -0.056242 0.032266 -0.125406
5 0.433347 0.468070 0.098583 -0.034723 0.011320 -0.112754
6 0.450141 0.442579 0.107279 0.007562 -0.029691 -0.034485
7 0.483157 0.409506 0.107337 0.073651 -0.094126 -0.033970
8 0.538370 0.365435 0.096195 0.172935 -0.191207 -0.134247
9 0.559462 0.344181 0.096357 0.215281 -0.232490 -0.132789

Position = 2 or 4

Card Player
Probability
Banker
Probability
Tie
Probability
Player
EV
Banker
EV
Tie
EV
0 0.482923 0.424876 0.092200 0.058047 -0.079291 -0.170196
1 0.479480 0.428435 0.092085 0.051045 -0.072467 -0.171236
2 0.475867 0.432106 0.092027 0.043761 -0.065366 -0.171760
3 0.472411 0.435284 0.092306 0.037127 -0.058891 -0.169246
4 0.465526 0.440687 0.093788 0.024839 -0.046873 -0.155910
5 0.452179 0.454358 0.093463 -0.002179 -0.020539 -0.158834
6 0.433199 0.460388 0.106413 -0.027189 0.004170 -0.042287
7 0.400152 0.493067 0.106781 -0.092916 0.068262 -0.038972
8 0.356026 0.548373 0.095600 -0.192347 0.164928 -0.139597
9 0.334672 0.569564 0.095764 -0.234892 0.206414 -0.138127

Position = 5

Card Player
Probability
Banker
Probability
Tie
Probability
Player
EV
Banker
EV
Tie
EV
0 0.380218 0.534474 0.085308 -0.154257 0.127533 -0.232225
1 0.420820 0.479574 0.099606 -0.058754 0.034776 -0.103546
2 0.456504 0.430362 0.113134 0.026142 -0.047660 0.018204
3 0.497991 0.391163 0.110846 0.106828 -0.126386 -0.002386
4 0.538285 0.355126 0.106590 0.183159 -0.200915 -0.040694
5 0.514847 0.377449 0.107704 0.137398 -0.156270 -0.030660
6 0.490071 0.399824 0.110105 0.090246 -0.110237 -0.009055
7 0.468767 0.426246 0.104987 0.042521 -0.063833 -0.055115
8 0.460376 0.471510 0.068114 -0.011133 -0.012442 -0.386972
9 0.432676 0.492616 0.074708 -0.059941 0.035310 -0.327628

Position = 6

Card Player
Probability
Banker
Probability
Tie
Probability
Player
EV
Banker
EV
Tie
EV
0 0.516285 0.384990 0.098725 0.131295 -0.150545 -0.111471
1 0.478876 0.421323 0.099801 0.057553 -0.078619 -0.101793
2 0.440520 0.458751 0.100729 -0.018230 -0.004707 -0.093442
3 0.403863 0.497170 0.098966 -0.093307 0.068448 -0.109303
4 0.379405 0.524860 0.095735 -0.145454 0.119211 -0.138384
5 0.368326 0.540489 0.091185 -0.172163 0.145139 -0.179338
6 0.371184 0.542547 0.086270 -0.171363 0.144236 -0.223572
7 0.400481 0.512086 0.087433 -0.111605 0.086001 -0.213103
8 0.432286 0.478288 0.089426 -0.046002 0.022088 -0.195163
9 0.461125 0.446294 0.092581 0.014831 -0.037145 -0.166770


Written by: Michael Shackleford

Wizard Recommends

On This Page