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Last Updated: August 22, 2016

Baccarat Flashing Dealers

Introduction

It has been known to happen that the dealer in baccarat will flash the next card to be dealt before closing bets. For those unfamiliar with the term, to flash a card means to show it prematurely, in this case before the player makes a bet. When this happens the player has a huge advantage. This section will tell you what to bet on according to the flashed card, the probability of winning, and your advantage. All tables are for eight decks.

The following table shows the probability of each bet winning according to the flashed card.

Probability of Winning by Flashed Card — Eight Decks

Flashed Card Banker Wins Player Wins Tie Wins
0 0.495203 0.415228 0.089568
A 0.493789 0.415476 0.090736
2 0.490844 0.417197 0.091959
3 0.487016 0.419852 0.093132
4 0.479533 0.423290 0.097177
5 0.468070 0.433347 0.098583
6 0.442579 0.450141 0.107279
7 0.409506 0.483157 0.107337
8 0.365435 0.538370 0.096195
9 0.344181 0.559462 0.096357

The following table shows the expected value of each bet winning according to the flashed card.

Expected Value by Flashed Card — Eight Decks

Flashed Card Banker EV Player EV Tie EV Best Bet
0 0.055215 -0.079975 -0.193887 Banker
A 0.053624 -0.078313 -0.183377 Banker
2 0.049105 -0.073647 -0.172369 Banker
3 0.042813 -0.067164 -0.161812 Banker
4 0.032266 -0.056243 -0.125407 Banker
5 0.011320 -0.034723 -0.112753 Banker
6 -0.029691 0.007562 -0.034488 Player
7 -0.094126 0.073651 -0.033967 Player
8 -0.191207 0.172935 -0.134245 Player
9 -0.232490 0.215281 -0.132787 Player

All things considered, the player advantage, if the dealer always flashes, is 6.76%.


Go back to baccarat
Go to baccarat appendix 1
Go to baccarat appendix 2
Go to baccarat appendix 3
Go to baccarat appendix 4
Go to baccarat appendix 5
Go to baccarat appendix 6

Baccarat: The Known Card — Article by Eliot Jacobson on not just the advantage of a known card in baccarat, but how advantage players attain can attain that information by exploiting the "ribbon spread."


Written by: Michael Shackleford

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