On this page
Card Counting the Lucky 6 Bet in Baccarat
Introduction
This article shall address card counting the Lucky 6 bet in baccarat. It is not hard to see that a deck rich in sixes would benefit the player. All analysis shall be based on the liberal 23-12 pay table, which has a house edge of 11.70%.
Effect of Removal
The following table shows the effect on the player's expected value from removing one card from a full eight-deck shoe. Note the strong negative effect of removing a 6 and the moderate good effect of removing a 7 to 9.
Effect of Removal
| Rank | Effect | Effect x3274 |
Rounded Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | -0.000611 | -1.999652 | -2 |
| 1 | -0.000329 | -1.075759 | -1 |
| 2 | -0.000323 | -1.056097 | -1 |
| 3 | -0.001131 | -3.701455 | -4 |
| 4 | -0.000393 | -1.286914 | -1 |
| 5 | -0.000278 | -0.910899 | -1 |
| 6 | -0.005386 | -17.632244 | -18 |
| 7 | 0.003907 | 12.792298 | 13 |
| 8 | 0.003537 | 11.578561 | 12 |
| 9 | 0.002838 | 9.291114 | 9 |
Level 1 Count
My level 1 count assigns the following values to each rank:
- 6: -3
- 7 to 9: +1
- 0 to 5: 0
The true count is the running count divided by the number of decks remaining to be dealt. The player should be with a true count of +7 or more.
Here are some statistics following my level 1 count.
- Probability positive count = 3.09%
- Average advantage per hand = 0.19%
- Average advantage per bet = 6.27%
- Hands per shoe = 80.1
- Average units won per shoe = 0.155
Level 2 Count
My level 2 count assigned the same values per rank as the "rounded" column in the effect of removal section, as follows:
- 0: -2
- 1: -1
- 2: -1
- 3: -4
- 4: -1
- 5: -1
- 6: -18
- 7: +13
- 8: +12
- 9: +9
The true count is the running count divided by the number of decks remaining to be dealt. The player should be with a true count of +48 or more.
Here are some statistics following my level 2 count.
- Probability positive count = 4.13%
- Average advantage per hand = 0.29%
- Average advantage per bet = 7.00%
- Hands per shoe = 80.1
- Average units won per shoe = 0.23
Conclusion
Counting the Lucky 6 is, for all practical purposes, a waste of time. This is under the liberal pay table and shuffling rules. Obviously, it gets even worse with the stingier pay table or more shallow placement of the cut card. Counting the Dragon 7 or Panda 8 would be more profitable, but those are also a waste of time. There are much more profitable ways for the advantage player to make money.
External Links
Discussion about counting the Lucky 6 in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.