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Upcard Luck
Introduction
Upcard Luck is a blackjack side bet found on Dynasty blackjack games by IGT. The premise is that it wins if the player is in a good situation after the initial cards are dealt. To win, the dealer must have a 2 to 7 showing and the player a blackjack or total of 9 to 11 or 18 to 20.
I first saw it at the Encore in Las Vegas in early 2021. Later, I saw it again, with another pay table, at the 2021 Global Gaming Expo.
Rules
To win, the dealer must have an up-card of 2 to 7. In addition, the player must have one of the hands below.
The following is what I call Pay Table 1.
- Jacks of spades and ace of spades — pays 78 to 1.
- Any other blackjack — pays 7 to 1.
- Total of 9 to 11 — pays 3 to 1.
- Total of 18 to 20 — pays 3 to 1.
The following is what I call Pay Table 2.
- Jacks of spades and ace of spades — pays 80 to 1.
- Any other blackjack — pays 8 to 1.
- Total of 9 to 11 — pays 4 to 1.
- Total of 18 to 20 — pays 3 to 1.
Following is a picture of the rules screen, if my explanation wasn't clear.
I presume the game is played with eight decks and the cards are shuffled after every hand, but I am not sure.
Analysis of Pay Table 1
The following table shows my analysis based on eight decks of cards. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 14.36%.
Pay Table 1 — Eight Decks
| Event | Win | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace of spaces and jack of spades | 78 | 12,288 | 0.000344 | 0.026820 |
| Other blackjack | 7 | 774,144 | 0.021663 | 0.151638 |
| Total of 9 to 11 | 3 | 2,042,912 | 0.057166 | 0.171498 |
| Total of 18 to 20 | 3 | 3,817,472 | 0.106823 | 0.320468 |
| All other | -1 | 29,089,664 | 0.814005 | -0.814005 |
| Total | 35,736,480 | 1.000000 | -0.143580 |
The next table shows the house edge for other numbers of decks.
Pay Table 1 — House Edge
| Decks | House Edge |
|---|---|
| 8 | 14.36% |
| 6 | 14.29% |
| 4 | 14.16% |
| 2 | 13.76% |
| 1 | 12.94% |
Analysis of Pay Table 2
The following table shows my analysis based on eight decks of cards. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.41%.
Pay Table 2 — Eight Decks
| Event | Win | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace of spaces and jack of spades | 80 | 12,288 | 0.000344 | 0.027508 |
| Other blackjack | 8 | 774,144 | 0.021663 | 0.173301 |
| Total of 9 to 11 | 4 | 2,042,912 | 0.057166 | 0.228664 |
| Total of 18 to 20 | 3 | 3,817,472 | 0.106823 | 0.320468 |
| All other | -1 | 29,089,664 | 0.814005 | -0.814005 |
| Total | 35,736,480 | 1.000000 | -0.064064 |
The next table shows the house edge for other numbers of decks under pay table 2.
Pay Table 2 — House Edge
| Decks | House Edge |
|---|---|
| 8 | 6.41% |
| 6 | 6.34% |
| 4 | 6.21% |
| 2 | 5.82% |
| 1 | 5.01% |
Card Counting
It is easy to see that this side bet would be very vulnerable to card counters. I presume IGT shuffles the deck after every hand to defend against this.