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Pair Square
Introduction
"Pair Square," which also goes by the name "Bet the Set" and "Any Pair," is one of the most successful blackjack side bets. It wins if the player's first two cards are a pair, usually more for a suited pair. I have seen or heard of a number of pay tables through the years. Following are return tables for some of them.
Pair Square — 12-10 Pay Table — Six Decks
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suited pair | 12 | 780 | 0.016077 | 0.192926 |
| Non-suited pair | 10 | 2808 | 0.057878 | 0.578778 |
| No pair | -1 | 44928 | 0.926045 | -0.926045 |
| Total | 48516 | 1.000000 | -0.154341 |
Pair Square — 12-12 Pay Table — Six Decks
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suited pair | 12 | 780 | 0.016077 | 0.192926 |
| Non-suited pair | 12 | 2808 | 0.057878 | 0.694534 |
| No pair | -1 | 44928 | 0.926045 | -0.926045 |
| Total | 48516 | 1.000000 | -0.038585 |
Pair Square — 15-10 Pay Table — Six Decks
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suited pair | 15 | 780 | 0.016077 | 0.241158 |
| Non-suited pair | 10 | 2808 | 0.057878 | 0.578778 |
| No pair | -1 | 44928 | 0.926045 | -0.926045 |
| Total | 48516 | 1.000000 | -0.106109 |
Pair Square — 20-10 Pay Table — Six Decks
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suited pair | 20 | 780 | 0.016077 | 0.321543 |
| Non-suited pair | 10 | 2808 | 0.057878 | 0.578778 |
| No pair | -1 | 44928 | 0.926045 | -0.926045 |
| Total | 48516 | 1.000000 | -0.025723 |
Pair Square — 25-10 Pay Table — Two Decks
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suited pair | 25 | 52 | 0.009709 | 0.242718 |
| Non-suited pair | 10 | 312 | 0.058252 | 0.582524 |
| No pair | -1 | 4992 | 0.932039 | -0.932039 |
| Total | 5356 | 1.000000 | -0.106796 |
Pair Square — 15 Pay Table — One Deck
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-suited pair | 15 | 78 | 0.058824 | 0.882353 |
| No pair | -1 | 1248 | 0.941176 | -0.941176 |
| Total | 1326 | 1.000000 | -0.058824 |
The following 25-8 pay table is used by Evolution Gaming, calling it the "Any Pair." They use eight decks of cards. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 4.10%.
Pair Square — 25-8 Pay Table — Eight Decks
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suited pair | 25 | 1,456 | 0.016867 | 0.421687 |
| Non-suited pair | 8 | 4,992 | 0.057831 | 0.462651 |
| No pair | -1 | 79,872 | 0.925301 | -0.925301 |
| Total | 86,320 | 1.000000 | -0.040964 |
The next table summarizes the house edge for all known pay tables, except the 25-8 one, by number of decks. A negative house edge denotes a player advantage, for a combination of pay table and number of decks you're unlikely to ever see, but let me know if you do.
Pair Square — House Edge Summary
| Decks | 0-15 Pay table |
12-10 Pay table |
12-12 Pay table |
15-10 Pay table |
20-10 Pay table |
25-10 Pay table |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.88% | 35.29% | 23.53% | 35.29% | 35.29% | 35.29% |
| 2 | 5.83% | 23.30% | 11.65% | 20.39% | 15.53% | 10.68% |
| 3 | 5.81% | 19.35% | 7.74% | 15.48% | 9.03% | 2.58% |
| 4 | 5.80% | 17.39% | 5.80% | 13.04% | 5.80% | -1.45% |
| 5 | 5.79% | 16.22% | 4.63% | 11.58% | 3.86% | -3.86% |
| 6 | 5.79% | 15.43% | 3.86% | 10.61% | 2.57% | -5.47% |
| 7 | 5.79% | 14.88% | 3.31% | 9.92% | 1.65% | -6.61% |
| 8 | 5.78% | 14.46% | 2.89% | 9.40% | 0.96% | -7.47% |