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Last Updated: October 10, 2019

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Pair Square

Introduction

"Pair Square," which also goes by the name "Bet the Set" and "Any Pair," is one of the most successful blackjack side bets. It wins if the player's first two cards are a pair, usually more for a suited pair. I have seen or heard of a number of pay tables through the years. Following are return tables for some of them.






Pair Square — 12-10 Pay Table — Six Decks

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Suited pair 12 780 0.016077 0.192926
Non-suited pair 10 2808 0.057878 0.578778
No pair -1 44928 0.926045 -0.926045
Total   48516 1.000000 -0.154341

 

 

Pair Square — 12-12 Pay Table — Six Decks

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Suited pair 12 780 0.016077 0.192926
Non-suited pair 12 2808 0.057878 0.694534
No pair -1 44928 0.926045 -0.926045
Total   48516 1.000000 -0.038585

 

 

Pair Square — 15-10 Pay Table — Six Decks

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Suited pair 15 780 0.016077 0.241158
Non-suited pair 10 2808 0.057878 0.578778
No pair -1 44928 0.926045 -0.926045
Total   48516 1.000000 -0.106109

 

 

Pair Square — 20-10 Pay Table — Six Decks

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Suited pair 20 780 0.016077 0.321543
Non-suited pair 10 2808 0.057878 0.578778
No pair -1 44928 0.926045 -0.926045
Total   48516 1.000000 -0.025723

 

 

Pair Square — 25-10 Pay Table — Two Decks

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Suited pair 25 52 0.009709 0.242718
Non-suited pair 10 312 0.058252 0.582524
No pair -1 4992 0.932039 -0.932039
Total   5356 1.000000 -0.106796

 

 

Pair Square — 15 Pay Table — One Deck

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Non-suited pair 15 78 0.058824 0.882353
No pair -1 1248 0.941176 -0.941176
Total   1326 1.000000 -0.058824

 

The following 25-8 pay table is used by Evolution Gaming, calling it the "Any Pair." They use eight decks of cards. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 4.10%.

Pair Square — 25-8 Pay Table — Eight Decks

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Suited pair 25 1,456 0.016867 0.421687
Non-suited pair 8 4,992 0.057831 0.462651
No pair -1 79,872 0.925301 -0.925301
Total   86,320 1.000000 -0.040964

The next table summarizes the house edge for all known pay tables, except the 25-8 one, by number of decks. A negative house edge denotes a player advantage, for a combination of pay table and number of decks you're unlikely to ever see, but let me know if you do.

Pair Square — House Edge Summary

Decks 0-15
Pay table
12-10
Pay table
12-12
Pay table
15-10
Pay table
20-10
Pay table
25-10
Pay table
1 5.88% 35.29% 23.53% 35.29% 35.29% 35.29%
2 5.83% 23.30% 11.65% 20.39% 15.53% 10.68%
3 5.81% 19.35% 7.74% 15.48% 9.03% 2.58%
4 5.80% 17.39% 5.80% 13.04% 5.80% -1.45%
5 5.79% 16.22% 4.63% 11.58% 3.86% -3.86%
6 5.79% 15.43% 3.86% 10.61% 2.57% -5.47%
7 5.79% 14.88% 3.31% 9.92% 1.65% -6.61%
8 5.78% 14.46% 2.89% 9.40% 0.96% -7.47%

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