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Dead Man's Hand
Introduction
Dead Man's Hand is a blackjack side bet by Dunow Gaming. I believe it has been played in Deadwood, South Dakota, for years. As of this writing in November 2017 it can be found at the Boot Hill Casino in Dodge City Kansas and at the Silverado, Franklin, and Gold Dust casinos in Deadwood, South Dakota.
Rules
Dead Man's Hand can be added to any conventional blackjack games. It pays if at least one of the player's first two cards are an eight or an ace. More if both of them are. Even more if splitting eights and aces result in at least one A-8 hand in the first two hands after splitting. Following is the full pay table. All pays are on a "to one" basis.
Dead Man's Hand Pay Table
| Event | Pays |
|---|---|
| Two A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 100 |
| One A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 20 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards | 4 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards & dealer blackjack | 50 |
| A-8 in first two cards | 4 |
| A or 8 in first two cards | 2 |
Analysis
The following table shows my analysis of the pay table above, based on two decks.
Dead Man's Hand — Two-Deck Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 100 | 59,684,352 | 0.000055 | 0.005463 |
| One A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 20 | 1,598,650,368 | 0.001463 | 0.029266 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards | 4 | 9,267,780,480 | 0.008483 | 0.033932 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards & dealer blackjack | 50 | 496,742,400 | 0.000455 | 0.022734 |
| A-8 in first two cards | 4 | 13,054,694,400 | 0.011949 | 0.047797 |
| A or 8 in first two cards | 2 | 287,203,276,800 | 0.262883 | 0.525765 |
| All others | -1 | 780,833,908,800 | 0.714712 | -0.714712 |
| Total | 1,092,514,737,600 | 1.000000 | -0.049756 |
The following table shows my analysis of the pay table above, based on four decks.
Dead Man's Hand — Four-Deck Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 100 | 4,564,224,000 | 0.000061 | 0.006062 |
| One A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 20 | 115,482,501,120 | 0.001534 | 0.030674 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards | 4 | 681,225,780,480 | 0.009047 | 0.036188 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards & dealer blackjack | 50 | 38,165,299,200 | 0.000507 | 0.025343 |
| A-8 in first two cards | 4 | 895,400,325,120 | 0.011891 | 0.047566 |
| A or 8 in first two cards | 2 | 19,698,807,152,640 | 0.261613 | 0.523226 |
| All others | -1 | 53,863,925,808,000 | 0.715347 | -0.715347 |
| Total | 75,297,571,090,560 | 1.000000 | -0.046289 |
The following table shows my analysis of the pay table above, based on six decks.
Dead Man's Hand — Six-Deck Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 100 | 55,049,043,456 | 0.000063 | 0.006264 |
| One A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 20 | 1,367,931,672,576 | 0.001556 | 0.031129 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards | 4 | 8,115,535,062,144 | 0.009234 | 0.036936 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards & dealer blackjack | 50 | 460,985,462,784 | 0.000525 | 0.026226 |
| A-8 in first two cards | 4 | 10,434,262,164,480 | 0.011872 | 0.047489 |
| A or 8 in first two cards | 2 | 229,553,767,618,560 | 0.261192 | 0.522384 |
| All others | -1 | 628,881,675,871,680 | 0.715558 | -0.715558 |
| Total | 878,869,206,895,680 | 1.000000 | -0.045129 |
The following table shows my analysis of the pay table above, based on eight decks.
Dead Man's Hand — Eight-Deck Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 100 | 318,151,827,456 | 0.000064 | 0.006365 |
| One A-8 in first two hands after splitting | 20 | 7,836,173,500,416 | 0.001568 | 0.031355 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards | 4 | 46,621,742,731,776 | 0.009327 | 0.037309 |
| A-A or 8-8 in first two cards & dealer blackjack | 50 | 2,666,136,403,968 | 0.000533 | 0.026670 |
| A-8 in first two cards | 4 | 59,295,178,801,152 | 0.011863 | 0.047451 |
| A or 8 in first two cards | 2 | 1,304,493,933,625,340 | 0.260982 | 0.521965 |
| All others | -1 | 3,577,166,958,613,240 | 0.715663 | -0.715663 |
| Total | 4,998,398,275,503,350 | 1.000000 | -0.044547 |
The final table summarizes the house edge for 2, 4, 6, and 8 decks.
House Edge Summary
| Decks | House Edge |
|---|---|
| 2 | 4.98% |
| 4 | 4.63% |
| 6 | 4.51% |
| 8 | 4.45% |
Video
In this video, I interview Mark Dunow, the creator of Dead Man's Hand, at the 2022 Table Game Protection and Table Games Conference.