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Lucky Match
Introduction
Lucky Match is a side bet found on tables labeled 21st Century Baccarat. The base game is the same as conventional baccarat. One of the side bets found on this game is the Lucky Match. It pays based on the poker value of the combined cards between the Player and Banker hands.
The side bet may be found at the Bicycle casino near Los Angeles.
Rules
- The rules of the base game are the same as conventional baccarat, which I assume the reader is familiar with.
- As usual in baccarat, eight decks of cards are used.
- The pay table is shown below. All pays are on a "to one" basis.
Pay Table
| Event | Pays |
|---|---|
| Five or six of a kind | 250 |
| Double triplets | 100 |
| Four of a kind | 30 |
| Full house | 15 |
| Three of a kind | 6 |
| Two or three pairs | 4 |
Analysis
The following table shows the number of permutations, probability, and contribution to the return for all possible outcomes of the Lucky Match bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 8.89%.
Return Table
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five or six of a kind | 250 | 356,942,987,520 | 0.000071 | 0.017853 |
| Double triplets | 100 | 616,417,689,600 | 0.000123 | 0.012332 |
| Four of a kind | 30 | 12,273,961,559,040 | 0.002456 | 0.073667 |
| Full house | 15 | 40,022,630,768,640 | 0.008007 | 0.120106 |
| Three of a kind | 6 | 207,858,985,697,280 | 0.041585 | 0.249511 |
| Two or three pairs | 4 | 385,294,498,430,976 | 0.077084 | 0.308334 |
| Loser | -1 | 4,351,974,838,370,300 | 0.870674 | -0.870674 |
| total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1.000000 | -0.088870 |
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Charlie Patrick for confirmation the math on this page.
Outside Links
The Lucky Match is discussed in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.