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Deal or No Deal Roulette

Introduction

 

Deal or No Deal Roulette is based on conventional single-zero roulette but adds a side bet called the "Bonus Bet." Depending on where a secondary wheel stops, the player may play one of two bonus rounds.

This game can be played at some Internet casinos, mainly ones catering to UK players, as well as some betting machines in land casinos, which I believe to be located in the UK. This page shall address the online version only.

Rules

 

Base Game

 

Following are the rules for the overall game and triggering the bonuses.

  1. The game is based on single-zero roulette. All the usual roulette bets are available with the standard odds.
  2. In addition, the player may wager on the Bonus Bet.
  3. There are two rings on the wheel. The inner wheel has the conventional numbers from 0 to 37, but the outer wheel is mostly blank except for two symbols: a red box and a black telephone.
  4. If the red box stops next to the ball, then the player will play what I call the "Suitcase Bonus." I call it that because the television show used suitcases and it sounds better than the "Red Box Bonus." Likewise, if the black telephone stops next to the ball, then the player will play what I call the "Roulette Bonus."
 

Suitcase Bonus

 
 

Following are the rules for the red box Bonus. For those familiar with the TV game show, it plays basically the same way, altering just the details.

  1. The game shall contain 22 red boxes with the following wins, relative to the amount the player bet: 3, 5, 6, 9, 11, 13, 16, 17, 19, 21, 26, 31, 41, 51, 61, 71, 76, 81, 91, 101, 126, 151.
  2. The player shall choose a red box to be set aside unopened.
  3. The player will open any six other red boxes, exposing the amounts inside, leaving 16 unopened red boxes.
  4. The banker shall offer the player a surrender offer. In my experience, this offer, as well as the others, are between 96.05% and 96.10% of the average of the remaining red boxes.
  5. If the player rejects the offer, then he shall open five more red boxes, leaving 11 unopened red boxes.
  6. Again, the player is given a surrender offer from the banker.
  7. If the player rejects the offer, then he shall open five more red boxes, leaving 6 unopened red boxes.
  8. Again, the player is given a surrender offer from the banker.
  9. If the player rejects the offer, then he shall open four more red boxes, leaving 2 unopened red boxes.
  10. Again, the player is given a surrender offer from the banker.
  11. If the player rejects the offer, then he shall be given the option to switch red boxes with the only other one left.
  12. The player shall open his case and win the amount inside.

Roulette Bonus

 
 
 

Following are the rules for the Roulette Bonus.

Roulette Bonus — Possible Wins

Maximum of 50 Maximum of 80 Maximum of 100
2 6 11
2 6 11
3 7 13
3 7 13
4 9 15
4 9 15
5 11 16
5 11 16
5 11 16
6 12 17
6 12 17
7 13 19
7 13 19
9 15 21
9 15 21
10 16 22
10 16 22
11 17 25
11 17 25
12 19 26
12 19 26
13 21 31
13 21 31
15 26 33
16 29 37
17 31 41
19 33 46
21 37 49
22 41 51
25 43 61
26 49 65
31 51 71
33 61 73
37 65 76
41 71 81
46 76 91
51 81 101
  1. The player shall open one of three boxes, revealing a maximum amount he may win on the subsequent bonus spin.
  2. The following table shows the possible wins on the wheel, according to the maximum established by the red box chosen. You'll notice the highest win is one greater than what is stated in the red box. I assume this is because the wheel amounts include the original wager, which is not won but just returned.



    3.  
  3. The player shall spin the wheel and be offered the amount where the ball lands.
  4. The player may accept this amount or decline it and spin again.
  5. If player chooses to decline the win from the first spin, then he will again choose a box and spin the wheel.
  6. Again, the player may accept the amount from the second spin or decline it for a third spin.
  7. If the player declines the second offer as well, then he will pick another case and spin the wheel again.
  8. The player must keep the amount of the third spin.
 

Analysis

 

Base Game

 

I do not know the probability that the ball will land next to either bonus symbol. I'm quite confident it is less than 1/37 each. If it were 1/37 each, then the overall return of the bonus would be 235%, giving the player a 135% advantage. Just based on personal observation, the bonus frequency is much less than that.

While we don't know the probability of triggering a bonus, we can quantify the odds of each bonus.

Suitcase Bonus

 

Since the banker always makes inferior offers compared to the average remaining cases, the strategy is simply to play to the end all the time. Contrary to what many incorrectly believe, there is no advantage nor disadvantage to switching cases at the end.

The average win in the red box Bonus is simply the average of the possible wins, which is 1027/22 = 46.68 times the Bonus Bet amount.

Roulette Bonus

 

Following is the strategy to the Roulette Bonus:

  • With the first offer, accept 35x the Bonus Bet amount or greater, otherwise refuse.
  • With the second offer, accept 27x the Bonus Bet amount or greater, otherwise refuse.
 

Following this strategy, the average Roulette Bonus win is 40.42 times the amount bet on the Bonus Bet.

Video

 

Please see my YouTube video of the two bonus rounds.

Written by: Michael Shackleford