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Last Updated: January 21, 2019
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'Not So Ugly Ducks' Deuces Wild Strategy
Introduction
This section contains my intermediate strategy for the "Not So Ugly Ducks" deuces wild game, mostly noted by paying 16 for a 5 of a kind and 10 for a straight flush. The following table shows the probabilities and return based on optimal strategy.
Return Table for NSUD
| Hand | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural royal flush | 800 | 458740044 | 0.000023 | 0.018411 |
| 4 deuces | 200 | 3722640204 | 0.000187 | 0.037351 |
| Wild royal flush | 25 | 38014202784 | 0.001907 | 0.047677 |
| 5 of a kind | 16 | 61970767656 | 0.003109 | 0.049743 |
| Straight flush | 10 | 102265178496 | 0.005130 | 0.051304 |
| 4 of a kind | 4 | 1217014431948 | 0.061055 | 0.244218 |
| Full house | 4 | 520619308704 | 0.026118 | 0.104473 |
| Flush | 3 | 413496638196 | 0.020744 | 0.062232 |
| Straight | 2 | 1142019668916 | 0.057292 | 0.114585 |
| 3 of a kind | 1 | 5327850287628 | 0.267285 | 0.267285 |
| Nothing | 0 | 11105798652624 | 0.557150 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 19933230517200 | 1.000000 | 0.997278 |
Intermediate Strategy
Following is my intermediate strategy. As usual, if a situation isn't listed, don't play it. For example, here are a couple hands you shouldn't play because they are not listed.
- Two to a royal flush, ace high, with no deuces. Instead, toss everything
- Three to a straight flush, with two gaps, and one deuce. This would include suited 2-3-4, A-2-3, A-2-4, and A-2-5. Instead, keep the deuce only.
4 Deuces
| Hand | Expected Return |
|---|---|
| 4 Deuces | 200 |
3 Deuces
| Hand | Expected Return |
|---|---|
| Wild Royal | 25 |
| Five of a kind | 16 |
| 3 deuces | 14.344126 to 14.482886 |
2 Deuces
| Hand | Expected Return |
|---|---|
| Pat Four of a kind to Wild Royal | 5.02128 to 25 |
| 4 to a RF | 4.382979 to 5.06383 |
| 4 to a SF: 0 or 1 gap except 34, 35, 46 | 3.212766 to 3.468085 |
| 2 deuces | 3.034968 to 3.095035 |
1 Deuce
| Hand | Expected Return |
|---|---|
| Straight flush to wild royal | 10 to 25 |
| 4 to a RF | 3.489362 to 4.106383 |
| Flush to 4K | 3 to 5.0213 |
| 4 to a SF: 0 or 1 gap | 2.191489 to 2.510638 |
| Straight | 2 |
| 4 to a SF: 2 gaps | 1.9574 |
| 3 of a kind | 1.888067 |
| 4 to a SF: A low | 1.680851 |
| 3 to a RF: J-K high | 1.13136 to 1.379278 |
| 3 to a SF: 0 gaps (67 to 9T) | 1.108233 to 1.153562 |
| 3 to a RF: A high | 1.06013 to 1.07308 |
| 3 to a SF: 1 gap (57 to 9J), 45, 56 | 1.010176 to 1.074931 |
| 4 to a straight: 0 gaps (567 to TJQ) | 1 |
| 1 deuce | 0.990867 to 1.026446 |
0 Deuces
| Hand | Expected Return |
|---|---|
| Royal flush | 800 |
| 4 to a RF | 19.659574 to 20 |
| 3 of a kind through straight flush | 1.888067 to 10 |
| 4 to a SF | 1.638298 to 1.914894 |
| 3 to a RF | 1.304348 to 1.517114 |
| 4 to a flush | 0.765957 |
| 2 pair | 0.680851 |
| 3 to a SF: 0 gaps (567 to 9TJ) | 0.547641 to 0.592044 |
| Pair | 0.546778 |
| 4 to a straight: 0 gaps (4567 to TJQK) | 0.510638 |
| 3 to a SF: 1 or 2 gaps, 345, 456 | 0.412581 to 0.509713 |
| 2 to a RF: J or Q high | 0.344249 to 0.407956 |
| 3 to a SF: A low | 0.33765 to 0.345051 |
| 4 to a straight: 1 gap, 3456 | 0.340426 |
| 2 to a RF: K high | 0.323343 to 0.341351 |
| Toss everything | 0.313949 to 0.332771 |
Play For Fun
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Written by: Michael Shackleford
