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Last Updated: January 21, 2019

'Not So Ugly Ducks' Deuces Wild Strategy

Introduction

This section contains my intermediate strategy for the "Not So Ugly Ducks" deuces wild game, mostly noted by paying 16 for a 5 of a kind and 10 for a straight flush. The following table shows the probabilities and return based on optimal strategy.

Return Table for NSUD

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Natural royal flush 800 458740044 0.000023 0.018411
4 deuces 200 3722640204 0.000187 0.037351
Wild royal flush 25 38014202784 0.001907 0.047677
5 of a kind 16 61970767656 0.003109 0.049743
Straight flush 10 102265178496 0.005130 0.051304
4 of a kind 4 1217014431948 0.061055 0.244218
Full house 4 520619308704 0.026118 0.104473
Flush 3 413496638196 0.020744 0.062232
Straight 2 1142019668916 0.057292 0.114585
3 of a kind 1 5327850287628 0.267285 0.267285
Nothing 0 11105798652624 0.557150 0.000000
Total   19933230517200 1.000000 0.997278

Intermediate Strategy

Following is my intermediate strategy. As usual, if a situation isn't listed, don't play it. For example, here are a couple hands you shouldn't play because they are not listed.

• Two to a royal flush, ace high, with no deuces. Instead, toss everything
• Three to a straight flush, with two gaps, and one deuce. This would include suited 2-3-4, A-2-3, A-2-4, and A-2-5. Instead, keep the deuce only.

4 Deuces

Hand Expected Return
4 Deuces 200

3 Deuces

Hand Expected Return
Wild Royal 25
Five of a kind 16
3 deuces 14.344126 to 14.482886

2 Deuces

Hand Expected Return
Pat Four of a kind to Wild Royal 5.02128 to 25
4 to a RF 4.382979 to 5.06383
4 to a SF: 0 or 1 gap except 34, 35, 46 3.212766 to 3.468085
2 deuces 3.034968 to 3.095035

1 Deuce

Hand Expected Return
Straight flush to wild royal 10 to 25
4 to a RF 3.489362 to 4.106383
Flush to 4K 3 to 5.0213
4 to a SF: 0 or 1 gap 2.191489 to 2.510638
Straight 2
4 to a SF: 2 gaps 1.9574
3 of a kind 1.888067
4 to a SF: A low 1.680851
3 to a RF: J-K high 1.13136 to 1.379278
3 to a SF: 0 gaps (67 to 9T) 1.108233 to 1.153562
3 to a RF: A high 1.06013 to 1.07308
3 to a SF: 1 gap (57 to 9J), 45, 56 1.010176 to 1.074931
4 to a straight: 0 gaps (567 to TJQ) 1
1 deuce 0.990867 to 1.026446

0 Deuces

Hand Expected Return
Royal flush 800
4 to a RF 19.659574 to 20
3 of a kind through straight flush 1.888067 to 10
4 to a SF 1.638298 to 1.914894
3 to a RF 1.304348 to 1.517114
4 to a flush 0.765957
2 pair 0.680851
3 to a SF: 0 gaps (567 to 9TJ) 0.547641 to 0.592044
Pair 0.546778
4 to a straight: 0 gaps (4567 to TJQK) 0.510638
3 to a SF: 1 or 2 gaps, 345, 456 0.412581 to 0.509713
2 to a RF: J or Q high 0.344249 to 0.407956
3 to a SF: A low 0.33765 to 0.345051
4 to a straight: 1 gap, 3456 0.340426
2 to a RF: K high 0.323343 to 0.341351
Toss everything 0.313949 to 0.332771

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