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Last Updated: July 29, 2013

100% Rebate on Video Poker Losses

Introduction

In the year prior to the writing of this page, I've known of two casinos that offered 100% rebate on slot losses promotions, including video poker. This type of promotion can be very lucrative. This page endeavors to show how much the player can expect to win and what winning goal the player should set for playing video poker.

Strategy

When casinos offer rebates on any machine they often unfortunately remove or remove from eligibility high-denomination video poker games. In the case where the player can bet significantly more at a time in slots compared to video poker, the player should consider playing reeled slots instead. I have another page about 100% rebates on slot losses. This page considers video poker only.

Normally, volatility is the enemy of the advantage player, but when trying to exploit a loss rebate, it is your friend. You don't want the house edge to grind you down, but your goal should be to quickly hit your winning goal, or go bust trying. That said, you should make the largest wagers possible. Hopefully there will be $25-denomination video poker games available, or $5 five-play games. If not, again, you should consider playing reeled slots.

This page shows the optimal quitting point according to the maximum loss that will be refunded and four common single-line video poker pay tables.

Example

For example, for 8-5 Bonus Poker and 800-credit maximum loss, the table below shows the optimal goal is a win of 860 units, with an expected win of 295.52 units, and a probability of success of 27.89%. However, for practical purposes, notice how the expected win is almost as high for much smaller win goals. Factoring in the Kelly Criterion and the lost time having to return to collect the rebate, I think a reasonable target is about half the optimal winning goal.

For those who don't understand what I mean by a "unit," it means a total bet. In the example above, if you bet 5 coins on a $25-denomination game, then a unit is $125. A winning goal of 500 units would have an expected win of 282.06 credits. At $125 a bet, that would be an expected win of $125 × 282.06 = $35,257.50.

800-Credit Bankroll

8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 800 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 193.54 62.07%
200 243.23 51.13%
300 263.00 46.11%
400 274.06 42.79%
500 282.06 39.86%
600 288.25 36.85%
700 292.78 33.59%
800 295.25 30.01%
860 295.52 27.89%
900 295.22 26.64%
1000 293.33 24.09%

25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 800 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 173.33 66.11%
200 216.71 56.32%
300 246.16 48.74%
400 262.59 43.72%
500 273.11 39.72%
600 279.77 36.24%
700 283.87 32.95%
800 285.69 29.65%
820 285.77 28.99%
900 285.09 26.64%
1000 282.70 24.07%

9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 800 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 220.50 63.40%
200 273.01 54.06%
300 293.29 50.16%
400 306.49 47.38%
500 318.06 44.68%
600 329.13 41.79%
700 339.70 38.61%
800 349.62 35.06%
900 357.35 31.72%
1000 361.52 29.31%
1100 363.64 27.42%
1200 364.58 25.74%
1230 364.66 25.25%
1300 364.45 24.14%
1400 363.53 22.61%
1500 361.65 21.15%

9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 800 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 166.29 73.09%
200 222.06 63.34%
300 257.69 56.68%
400 284.36 51.24%
500 304.45 46.64%
600 319.62 42.77%
700 331.32 39.35%
800 340.25 36.13%
900 347.00 33.25%
1000 351.26 30.69%
1100 353.81 28.42%
1200 354.83 26.38%
1260 355.11 25.27%
1300 355.02 24.57%
1400 354.12 22.92%
1500 352.21 21.41%

400-Credit Bankroll

8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 400 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 108.71 62.77%
100 149.73 47.66%
150 171.38 39.07%
200 182.63 34.25%
250 188.35 31.53%
300 191.25 29.99%
350 192.71 29.13%
400 193.41 28.64%
450 193.90 28.22%
500 194.44 27.61%
550 194.95 26.77%
600 195.34 25.71%
640 195.45 24.74%
650 195.43 24.47%
700 195.14 23.08%
750 194.33 21.55%

25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 400 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 135.85 53.50%
200 163.68 42.03%
300 179.75 34.08%
400 186.08 29.97%
500 188.92 27.10%
600 189.99 24.66%
630 190.04 23.94%
700 189.61 22.23%
800 187.62 19.62%
900 184.36 17.27%
1000 180.37 15.34%

9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 400 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 171.30 46.94%
200 205.85 35.29%
300 213.35 32.46%
400 214.96 31.78%
500 216.49 30.99%
600 219.63 28.99%
700 222.96 26.19%
800 225.43 22.85%
900 226.35 19.83%
920 226.37 19.38%
1000 226.03 18.00%
1100 225.28 16.82%
1200 224.07 15.81%

9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 400 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 133.45 60.35%
200 169.99 48.40%
300 189.75 41.26%
400 202.35 36.08%
500 210.76 32.08%
600 216.18 28.89%
700 219.77 26.15%
800 221.98 23.62%
900 222.99 21.39%
910 223.02 21.18%
1000 222.78 19.47%
1100 221.93 17.82%
1200 220.29 16.37%

200-Credit Bankroll

8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 200 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 72.39 54.08%
100 96.77 36.73%
150 108.69 27.17%
200 114.44 21.89%
250 117.08 18.93%
300 118.28 17.28%
350 118.76 16.35%
400 118.92 15.82%
450 118.96 15.53%
500 118.93 15.36%
550 118.90 15.27%
600 118.87 15.22%

25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 200 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 80.29 50.04%
100 93.95 40.63%
150 101.07 35.07%
200 107.39 29.33%
250 111.81 24.54%
300 113.91 21.69%
350 115.01 19.62%
400 115.56 17.96%
450 115.69 16.71%
500 115.60 15.81%
550 115.34 15.13%
600 115.01 14.61%

9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 200 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 109.08 35.07%
200 128.88 21.57%
300 132.85 18.34%
400 133.61 17.56%
500 133.74 17.37%
600 133.75 17.32%
630 133.76 17.26%
700 133.65 16.55%
800 132.68 14.18%
900 130.67 11.61%
1000 128.89 10.15%

9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 200 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
100 95.93 45.66%
200 114.97 33.29%
300 123.22 27.06%
400 127.83 22.67%
500 130.21 19.49%
600 131.14 17.35%
690 131.30 15.80%
700 131.30 15.64%
800 130.81 13.96%
900 129.80 12.47%
1000 128.33 11.22%

100-Credit Bankroll

8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 100 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 46.82 43.89%
100 58.71 26.82%
150 63.58 18.13%
200 65.46 13.54%
250 66.07 11.03%
300 66.18 9.64%
350 66.10 8.87%
400 65.97 8.43%
450 65.86 8.19%
500 65.77 8.06%
550 65.71 7.98%
600 65.66 7.93%
650 65.62 7.91%

25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 100 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 55.02 34.50%
100 60.65 26.75%
150 62.38 23.75%
200 64.45 18.94%
250 65.65 14.85%
300 65.88 12.83%
310 65.89 12.52%
350 65.79 11.40%
400 65.47 10.19%
450 65.08 9.30%
500 64.66 8.67%

9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 100 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 49.19 44.50%
100 64.38 25.47%
150 70.40 16.91%
200 72.84 12.87%
250 73.80 10.92%
300 74.17 9.97%
350 74.29 9.51%
400 74.33 9.28%
420 74.33 9.22%
450 74.33 9.17%
500 74.33 9.11%
550 74.32 9.08%
600 74.32 9.07%

9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 100 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 53.00 42.30%
100 62.03 31.58%
150 66.94 25.16%
200 70.09 20.54%
250 71.71 17.81%
300 72.58 16.03%
350 73.13 14.56%
400 73.49 13.12%
450 73.64 11.93%
500 73.61 10.98%
550 73.48 10.21%
600 73.27 9.57%
650 73.01 9.05%
700 72.72 8.62%
750 72.36 8.18%
800 71.87 7.69%
850 71.32 7.22%
900 70.73 6.80%
950 70.13 6.43%
1000 69.51 6.08%

50-Credit Bankroll

8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 50 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 21.90 50.96%
40 27.74 36.69%
60 30.95 28.03%
80 32.90 22.07%
100 34.14 17.65%
120 34.88 14.46%
140 35.30 12.09%
160 35.53 10.30%
180 35.62 8.93%
190 35.64 8.37%
200 35.63 7.87%
220 35.59 7.05%
240 35.52 6.41%

25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 50 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 24.58 44.42%
40 31.48 27.44%
60 34.25 19.94%
80 35.38 16.54%
100 35.84 14.98%
120 36.01 14.26%
140 36.08 13.93%
160 36.11 13.68%
180 36.18 12.89%
200 36.23 11.50%
220 36.20 10.00%
240 36.11 8.85%
260 36.00 8.03%
280 35.88 7.46%
300 35.77 7.03%

9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 50 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 30.35 33.22%
100 36.58 16.89%
150 38.54 10.31%
200 39.15 7.35%
250 39.30 5.95%
270 39.31 5.62%
300 39.30 5.28%
350 39.26 4.95%
400 39.22 4.79%

9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 50 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
50 33.36 0.28
100 37.07 0.19
150 38.47 0.15
200 39.37 0.12
250 39.71 0.10
300 39.81 0.09
320 39.82 0.08
350 39.80 0.08
400 39.70 0.07
450 26.54 0.04
500 21.61 0.03

25-Credit Bankroll

8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 25 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
10 11.63 49.84%
20 14.44 37.04%
30 16.00 29.47%
40 17.01 24.20%
50 17.68 20.36%
60 18.11 17.62%
70 18.42 15.43%
80 18.65 13.50%
90 18.81 11.85%
100 18.91 10.50%
110 18.97 9.37%
120 19.00 8.42%
130 19.01 7.61%
140 18.99 6.91%
150 18.97 6.32%

25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 25 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 15.05 33.66%
40 18.06 18.31%
60 19.08 12.08%
80 19.44 9.35%
100 19.55 8.12%
120 19.58 7.56%
130 19.59 7.40%
140 19.59 7.29%
160 19.58 7.17%
180 19.58 7.09%
200 19.48 6.48%

9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 25 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 13.65 42.43%
40 17.08 26.68%
60 18.71 18.37%
80 19.56 13.37%
100 20.02 10.13%
120 20.26 7.95%
140 20.38 6.43%
160 20.42 5.35%
170 20.43 4.93%
180 20.43 4.57%
200 20.41 4.00%

9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 25 Units

Win Goal Expected
Win
Probability
of Success
20 17.77 25.13%
40 18.69 20.96%
60 19.84 15.31%
80 20.35 12.55%
100 20.64 10.78%
120 20.78 9.79%
140 20.86 9.09%
160 20.97 7.91%
180 21.01 7.04%
200 21.03 6.40%
220 16.77 4.34%
240 14.48 3.34%
260 13.24 2.84%
280 12.39 2.53%
300 11.69 2.28%

Pay Tables

The following four tables show the full pay tables of the games analyzed in this report. In most casinos one of these games will be the best available at high denominations. The lower right cell in each table shows the expected return, assuming optimal strategy.

8-5 Bonus Poker — Return Table

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 800 495,443,136 0.000025 0.019884
Straight flush 50 2,129,604,264 0.000107 0.005342
4 aces 80 3,903,775,812 0.000196 0.015667
4 2-4 40 10,509,866,328 0.000527 0.021090
4 5-K 25 32,688,417,336 0.001640 0.040997
Full house 8 229,516,869,924 0.011514 0.092114
Flush 5 216,873,645,000 0.010880 0.054400
Straight 4 223,676,319,912 0.011221 0.044885
3 of a kind 3 1,484,391,167,856 0.074468 0.223405
Two pair 2 2,577,523,603,752 0.129308 0.258616
Jacks or better 1 4,290,810,981,444 0.215259 0.215259
Nothing 0 10,860,710,822,436 0.544855 0.000000
Total 19,933,230,517,200 1.000000 0.991660

25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Return Table

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Natural royal flush 800 459,049,128 0.000023 0.018423
Four deuces 200 3,727,422,492 0.000187 0.037399
Wild royal flush 25 38,117,987,136 0.001912 0.047807
Five of a kind 15 62,201,557,608 0.003120 0.046807
Straight flush 9 98,365,859,016 0.004935 0.044413
Four of a kind 4 1,221,942,888,444 0.061302 0.245207
Full house 4 522,030,131,520 0.026189 0.104756
Flush 3 407,586,633,720 0.020448 0.061343
Straight 2 1,145,767,137,120 0.057480 0.114961
Three of a kind 1 5,342,397,992,292 0.268015 0.268015
Nothing 0 11,090,633,858,724 0.556389 0.000000
Total 19,933,230,517,200 1.000000 0.989131

9-6 Jacks or Better — Return Table

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 800 493,512,264 0.000025 0.019807
Straight flush 50 2,178,883,296 0.000109 0.005465
4 of a kind 25 47,093,167,764 0.002363 0.059064
Full house 9 229,475,482,596 0.011512 0.103610
Flush 6 219,554,786,160 0.011015 0.066087
Straight 4 223,837,565,784 0.011229 0.044917
3 of a kind 3 1,484,003,070,324 0.074449 0.223346
Two pair 2 2,576,946,164,148 0.129279 0.258558
Jacks or better 1 4,277,372,890,968 0.214585 0.214585
Nothing 0 10,872,274,993,896 0.545435 0.000000
Total 19,933,230,517,200 1.000000 0.995439

9-6 Double Double Bonus — Return Table

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 800 488,567,700 0.000025 0.019608
Straight flush 50 2,184,917,880 0.000110 0.005481
4 aces + 2-4 400 1,227,691,500 0.000062 0.024636
4 2-4 + A-4 160 2,854,370,052 0.000143 0.022911
4 aces + 5-K 160 3,460,011,120 0.000174 0.027773
4 2-4 + 5-K 80 7,662,444,216 0.000384 0.030752
4 5-K 50 32,494,582,452 0.001630 0.081509
Full house 9 216,474,969,996 0.010860 0.097740
Flush 6 226,412,247,120 0.011359 0.068151
Straight 4 254,472,741,540 0.012766 0.051065
3 of a kind 3 1,500,277,164,324 0.075265 0.225795
Two pair 1 2,453,055,008,724 0.123064 0.123064
Jacks or better 1 4,212,339,758,244 0.211322 0.211322
Nothing 0 11,019,826,042,332 0.552837 0.000000
Total 19,933,230,517,200 1.000000 0.989808

Methodology

This analysis was done assuming optimal video poker strategy. The simulations used a Mersenne Twister random number generator.

100% Rebate on Video Poker Losses Promotions. How to play 100% loss rebate promotions on single-line three-reel slots. This may be a viable option if you can bet significantly more on slots.

Best Online Casino Video Poker Bonuses

Rank Casino Bonus % Wager Cash  
1 $500 50% 25xB Play Now
2 $200 20% 20xB&D Play Now
3 $250 100% 38xB&D Play Now
4 $1000 100% 42xB&D Play Now
5 $3000 150% 90xB&D Play Now

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Basic Video Poker Info

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  • Return tables:
  • Probability of Ruin for single-play video poker
  • Random simulations of multi-play video poker
  • The standard deviation of n-play video poker

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Strategies

Full-Pay Jacks or Better:

Full-Pay Deuces Wild:

Quick Quads:

Other Strategies:



Written by: Michael Shackleford