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Betting Major League Baseball
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Introduction
The page will endeavor to give the recreational baseball bettor advice on the various bets. I have no handicapping skill in baseball whatsoever, so the best I can do is steer you towards the best type of bets. There are three primary ways to bet on baseball, as follows.
- Money line: Bet on which team will win.
- Total: Bet on whether the total number of runs will fall above or below a stated number, usually between 7 and 12.
- Run line: Similar to a bet against the spread in football or basketball. However, in baseball the better team is always favored by 1.5. If the money line indicates neither team is favored, then either team could be the favored team.
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Baseball MLB
Today
Colorado Rockies
Cincinnati Reds
Featured Insight
In the Rockies vs. Reds matchup, consider the Reds' stronger batting lineup and home-field advantage. While the Rockies boast impressive individual performances, their away game struggles pose a challenge.
Seattle Mariners
Miami Marlins
Money Line
450
⇗825.00
252
⇗9.00
Spread
170
(1.5)
⇗305.00
120
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Seattle Mariners face the Miami Marlins in what promises to be a competitive matchup. The Mariners boast a strong pitching lineup, though their offense is inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Marlins have shown resilience but struggle against top-tier pitchers.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
Money Line
425
⇗25.00
-123
⇗6.00
Spread
100
(2)
⇗220.00
130
(-1.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The Arizona Diamondbacks face a tough matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who boast a strong offensive lineup and consistent pitching. Arizona's pitching staff will need to step up, and their offense must capitalize on scoring opportunities.
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays
Spread
156
(-1.5)
⇗1.00
260
(-1.5)
⇗100.00
Featured Insight
The San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays are set for an exciting matchup. The Padres have strong hitters but struggle with consistency. The Rays boast a strategic approach and solid pitching roster. Watch for the battle between Padres’ offense and Rays’ defense.
Oakland Athletics
Chicago White Sox
Featured Insight
The Oakland Athletics face challenges with their inconsistent pitching. The Chicago White Sox have a solid lineup, providing an edge. However, the Athletics have shown sporadic bursts of offensive talent.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Money Line
195
⇗349.00
190
⇗3.00
Spread
110
(-1.5)
110
(-1.5)
⇗315.00
Featured Insight
The Dodgers are strong contenders with a robust lineup, boasting excellent pitching skills. The Pirates have struggled with consistency, often relying on emerging talents.
San Francisco Giants
Texas Rangers
Money Line
150
⇗304.00
114
⇗1.00
Spread
173
(-1.5)
⇗1.00
145
(-1.5)
⇗30.00
Featured Insight
The San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers match is expected to be competitive. The Giants have a strong pitching lineup, while the Rangers boast powerful hitters.
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Spread
115
(-1.5)
-130
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays clash in a riveting MLB matchup. The Yankees boast a strong batting lineup, but the Blue Jays have a solid pitching staff. Yankee Stadium favors hitters, which may give New York a slight edge.
Cleveland Guardians
Boston Red Sox
Spread
-170
(1.5)
154
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Cleveland Guardians are having a strong season, focusing on their pitching rotation, while the Boston Red Sox rely heavily on their offensive strengths. Watch for Cleveland's ace to dominate, but Boston's hitters could be pivotal if they break through early.
Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles
Spread
165
(-1.5)
165
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Detroit Tigers face off against the Baltimore Orioles, with Orioles being the favorite. Both teams have young talent, but Baltimore's lineup has shown consistency recently. Detroit's pitching could struggle against Baltimore's strong offense.
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels
Spread
171
(-1.5)
160
(-1.5)
⇗360.00
Featured Insight
The Twins have shown strong form recently, backed by a robust pitching staff. Meanwhile, the Angels have been inconsistent, struggling with injuries to key players. This gives the Twins a slight edge, especially when playing at home.
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Money Line
-144
⇗6.00
131
⇗5.00
Spread
145
(-1.5)
⇗5.00
-160
(1.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The St. Louis Cardinals face the Milwaukee Brewers in a crucial matchup. The Cardinals have strong batting potential, but the Brewers boast solid pitching. Key players such as Paul Goldschmidt and Corbin Burnes could influence the outcome.
Spread
105
(1.5)
⇗5.00
-120
(-1.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
Colorado Rockies face Cincinnati Reds in a matchup favoring the Reds due to their superior roster and home advantage. The Rockies struggle on the road, with inconsistent pitching being a critical factor. Bettors should consider the Reds' strong offense.
Spread
-105
(-1.5)
-105
(1.5)
Featured Insight
Oakland Athletics face the Chicago White Sox. Oakland's recent form shows inconsistency, while Chicago's lineup capitalizes on errors. Pitching duels may favor Chicago, given their bullpen strength. Weather conditions could affect gameplay, so check forecasts.
Spread
177
(-1.5)
⇗2.00
165
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The San Francisco Giants have shown strong pitching, but the Texas Rangers boast a powerful lineup. Consider the Giants' bullpen depth for late-game situations. For betting, watch Rangers' recent road game performances and Giants’ home stats.
Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies
Spread
-190
(1.5)
155
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Chicago Cubs face the Philadelphia Phillies in a competitive MLB matchup. The Cubs have struggled on the road, while the Phillies perform better at home. Pitching matchups could be crucial, with both teams having strong starting rotations.
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
Money Line
149
⇗5.00
-165
⇗5.00
Spread
-110
(1.5)
-105
(-1.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The Nationals and Mets matchup promises an engaging game. Consider the Mets' strong home record and the Nationals' struggles on the road. Pitching matchups favor the Mets, providing an edge.
Spread
-190
(1.5)
⇗10.00
155
(-1.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The Cleveland Guardians face off against the Boston Red Sox, promising an exciting game. Guardians' pitching has been strong, while Red Sox's batting lineup shows depth. Look for a close match, with Boston slightly favored.
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
Money Line
122
⇗2.00
-134
Spread
-145
(1.5)
130
(-1.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The Houston Astros have the upper hand over the Kansas City Royals due to their stronger batting lineup and solid pitching rotation. While the Royals have shown flashes of potential, the Astros' home-field advantage and recent performance trend make them favorites.
This Week
Spread
170
(-1.5)
-190
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Arizona Diamondbacks face a tough challenge against the Atlanta Braves. The Braves' strong batting lineup and home-field advantage make them favorites. Arizona's key to victory will be their pitching strategy and clutch performance under pressure.
Spread
155
(-1.5)
-160
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The matchup between the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays promises excitement. The Padres have a strong lineup with solid hitters, but the Rays' pitching staff is among the best in the league. Watch for low scoring due to both teams' defensive strengths.
Spread
-120
(-1.5)
105
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Los Angeles Dodgers, known for their strong lineup, face the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Dodgers are favorites, having performed well in recent games. Watch for their top hitters. The Pirates need a strong pitching performance to compete.
Spread
100
(-1.5)
-110
(1.5)
Featured Insight
Seattle Mariners face Miami Marlins in an intriguing matchup. Both teams have shown inconsistent forms recently. Mariners rely heavily on their dynamic offense, while the Marlins boast a solid pitching lineup.
Baseball MLB World Series Winner
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Competitor/Team
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Texas Rangers
San Diego Padres
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros
Chicago Cubs
Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Guardians
Kansas City Royals
San Francisco Giants
Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Angels
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oakland Athletics
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
Chicago White Sox
Colorado Rockies
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Baseball NCAA Baseball
Today
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Money Line
-525
350
Spread
-120
(-3.5)
-110
(3.5)
Featured Insight
The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors and CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners face off in an intriguing match-up. Consider Hawai'i's strong offensive strategy, capitalizing on Bakersfield's recent defensive struggles. Watch key players like Matt Wong to make an impact.
Source of Data
The data this analysis is based on is from the Major League Baseball games played over the 2016 and 2017 seasons. I had to remove two games because of incomplete data. The total number of games this page is based on is 4,929.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors.
MLB Averages 2016-2017
| Item | Away | Home | Total1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 4.47 | 4.64 | 9.10 |
| Hits | 8.71 | 8.64 | 17.34 |
| Errors | 0.58 | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| Total | 13.76 | 13.87 | 27.61 |
Notes
1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding.
Money Line Bets
When it comes to betting money lines in baseball, or any sports bet for that matter, what is number of basis points, or "cents" between the lines of the two teams. For example, a 10-cent set of lines would be +120/-130 or +105/+105. Following is the theoretical house edge by number of cents in the lines, assuming the probability of each team winning is close to 50%.
- 10 cents: 2.38%
- 15 cents: 3.49%
- 20 cents: 4.55%
As of this writing (Sept. 20, 2018) here are which sports book groups offer which sets of money line bets in baseball.
- 10-cent lines: Westgate, William Hill, South Point, Stations, CG Technology, Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget, Boyd
- 15-cent lines: Stratosphere, Caesars, Wynn
- 20-cent lines: MGM/Mirage, Treasure Island
Home or Road Teams
I show money line bets on road teams perform slightly better than home teams. Here are the expected return for both:
- Road teams: 98.30%
- Home teams: 97.99%
I do not think this 0.3% difference is statistically significant.
Favorite or Underdog
Following is the expected return for both underdogs and favorites against a 10-cent line:
- Underdogs: 98.49%
- Favorites: 97.79%
Not surprisingly, the underdogs did better. This seems to be true in every American sport.
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Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the number of times the total runs was over, under, and exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the house edge, assuming a 20-cent line. Note that the house edge is 2.25% less on Under bets.
Over/Under Bets in MLB
| Outcome | Number | Probability | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 2315 | 46.97% | 5.45% |
| Under | 2373 | 48.14% | 3.20% |
| Push | 241 | 4.89% | |
| Total | 4929 | 100.00% |
Run Line Bets
Based on sets of 20-cent lines, I show the following expected returns:
- Underdog +1.5: 96.34%
- Favorite -1.5: 96.90%
I must say I'm surprised to see favorites outperform underdogs on the run line. This is not the case in the NHL on the puck line. The difference is fairly small at 0.64% so I would not trust the favorite side to continue to do better.\
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Internal Links
- Obscure Topics in Betting Major League Baseball — These are some tables I didn't bother to update when I updated this page with new data. Use the tables in this page, based on data from 2000 to 2009, with a grain of salt.
- Betting the NFL In-depth look at betting professional football.
- Betting the NBA In-depth look at betting professional basketball.
- Appendix 1 Comparative study on who has the best lines in Vegas.
- Appendix 2 Various topics in sports betting.
- Appendix 3 List of Las Vegas sports book families.
- Appendix 4 Fair prices to buy and sell points in the NFL.
- Appendix 5 Explores sports futures in greater depth.
- Appendix 6 Lost and expired tickets.
- Appendix 7 Companion to appendix 1, showing NFL money line pairs from several Internet sportbooks.
- Appendix 8 Comparitive study on who has the best lines offshore.
- Appendix 9 Companion to appendix 8, showing NFL money line pairs from offshore sportbooks.
- NFL Teasers.
- Total number of kickoffs in Super Bowl 43. Were there 9 or 10?
- Vegas sports book comparison at WizardOfVegas.com. Who offers what odds on parlays and teasers, as well as rebate percentages.