Teaser bets in the NFL

Introduction

Disclaimer

The analysis on this page is based on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. I started with 1994 because that was the year the two-point conversion rule was introduced. Besides sample size variation, I also had to make assumptions about how point spreads were created on teaser cards. To save time, rather than analyzing all 12 known types of parlay cards, I analyzed five types. To get an understanding of how extra points affect the probability of winning, I created my Wizard Teaser Equation.

The reader should assume there is some margin of error on any statistic on the probability of winning and expected return anywhere on this page. At the end of the day, sports are ultimately played by human beings, not statistics, so always take any predictions of future results, based on past results, with a grain of salt.

Off the Board Teasers

"Off the Board" (OTB) teasers are based on the current point spreads off the betting board at the time of the bet. No card is filled out. Instead, the bettor tells the writer the number of legs in the teaser, number of additional points on each leg, the bet numbers he wishes to parlay, and the amount of the bet. For example, the bettor might say, "Three-team, 6-point NFL teaser on 213, 218 and 224 for $100."

The bettor may choose to get 6, 6.5 or 7 extra points on each leg of the teaser. Naturally, the more points the bettor takes, the less he stands to win. Winning odds vary from place to place, so please refer to my pay tables for whom pays the best odds. However, for the lazy readers out there, Jerry's Nugget has the best OTB teaser odds for most the number of legs and points.

Following is my individual analysis of 6-point, 6.5-point, and 7-point teasers.

6-Point Off the Board Teasers

The following table shows what 6-point OTB teaser bets pay, according to the number of picks and the sports book group. Wins in this table are on a "to one" basis. In other words, the original wager is returned if the bet wins.

The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a random picker against the best available 6-point teaser odds. Note the house edge ranges from 10% to 52%.

It is possible to significantly move the odds in the player's favor by not picking random sides, but by crossing common margins of victory. The following table shows the ten most common winning margins in the NFL.

Note how 25% of games end in a margin of victory of 3 or 7. By buying points that cross both these numbers, the player increases the probability of winning substantially. The only spreads that cross both numbers when teased with 6 points are -8.5, -8, -7.5, 1.5, 2 and 2.5. On average, 20% of games in the NFL have one side with one of these point spreads. Teasers on these point spreads are known as Wong Teasers, because Stanford Wong's book, Sharp Sports Betting, showed how to beat them.

The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a Wong picker against the best available 6-point teaser odds.

Note the player advantages up to 32% on the pick-8. Unfortunately, most weeks don't have that many opportunities. As mentioned, 20% of games have a Wong side, so in a 16-game week, you can expect 3.2 Wongable games only.

Sadly, the liberal odds of -110 for a 2-leg, +180 for a 3-leg, and +300 for a 4-leg 6-point NFL teaser seem to have gone the way of the dodo bird with the 2014 season. The last holdout Jerry's Nugget depressed their odds with the 2014 season.

Note that 2004 was the worst year for Wong teasers in the sample period, and note what year I bet the ticket above at the Suncoast.

6.5-Point Off the Board Teasers

The following table shows what 6.5-point OTB teaser bets pay according to the number of picks and the sports book group. Wins in this table are on a "to one" basis. In other words, the original wager is returned if the bet wins.

The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a random picker against the best available 6.5-point teaser odds. Note the house edge ranges from 10% to 54%.

While Wong teasers have always referred to buying six points, it is possible to do them with a 6.5 point teaser. In this case, the qualifying point spreads would be -9 to -7.5 and 1 to 2.5. Under this criteria, 74.14% of 6.5-point Wong teasers legs win. The following table shows how well they do against the best available odds for a 6.5-point teaser.

While the above table shows some strong player advantages, up to 23%, the odds are not as good as for the 6-point Wong teaser.

7-Point Off the Board Teasers

The following table shows what 7-point OTB teaser bets pay according to the number of picks and the sports book group. Wins in this table are on a "to one" basis. In other words, the original wager is returned if the bet wins.

The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a random picker against the best available 7-point teaser odds. Note the house edge ranges from 12% to 54%.

Since I looked at Wong teasers for 6 and 6.5 points, I may as well do it for 7. There the qualifying range on the point spread would be -9.5 to -7.5 or 1 to 2.5. Although there could be, there is never a points spread of 0.5 or -0.5 in the NFL. The probability of each leg winning is 74.61%. The following table shows the expected return for 7-point Wong teasers, based on the best available win for the chosen number of legs.

While the above table shows some small advantages, they are significantly less than the large advantages under a 6-point Wong teaser.

Teaser Cards

Let me start by explaining what a teaser card is. They are the same as a parlay card, except (1) each pick gets extra points on the spread, and (2) they pay much less. It is the same principle as off the board parlays, rather than teasers), except the player fills out a card as opposed to telling the writer each leg of the teaser. The point spreads on teaser cards are usually integers, with a ties win rule, which is worth another half point in the player's favor.

Another difference between betting on a teaser or parlay card, as opposed to off the board, is all card wins are on a "for one" basis and off the board wins are "to one." For those who don't understand the difference, if the player wins a "to win" bet, he also gets his original wager back, while on a "for one" bet, he does not.

There are a host of types of teasers, giving the player an extra 2.5 to 10 points on each leg. Of course, the more points the player gets, the less he will win. For this page, I specifically analyzed five types of teaser cards, giving the player 2.5, 5.5, 6.5, 8.5 and 9.5 points on each leg. My analysis shows that for a random picker, the probability of winning each leg is as follows.

Based on this table, and after doing some math, I developed a formula to estimate the probability of winning any given leg given p extra points, for a random picker.

Wizard Teaser Equation

Probability of covering spread with p extra points is estimated as e^0.128×p/ (1+e^0.128×p).

For those unfamiliar with the number e, it is known as Euler's number, which equals 1/0! + 1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3! + ... = 2.718281828... It has all kinds of applications in mathematics, especially calculus. To name just four:

• c*e^x, where c is any non-zero constant, is the only function who derivative is itself.
• If x=integral from 1 to y of (1/t) dt, then e^x = y.
• $1 deposited in a bank account paying 100% interest, compounded infinitely, would have $e at the end of one year.
• 

Getting back on topic, the following chart shows the actual probability of winning, according to the number of additional points, and the probability estimated by the Wizard Teaser Equation.

Let's look at an example. The William Hill "teaser card" is one of the few with spreads that always end in 1/2. One game had the following lines: Patriots -4.5, Bills +16.5. To get the extra points on each side, simply add the two spreads and divide by two. In this case (16.5-4.5)/2 = 6. So, I would call this a 6-point teaser card. My formula suggests the probability of a random pick winning would be e^0.128×6/(1+e^0.128×6) = 68.31%.

Let's look at another. Caesars casinos have a "teaser card" in which every spread is an integer with a ties win rule. One game had spreads of Eagles -2, Chargers +14. Again, add the spreads and divide by 2: (14-2)/2 = 6. However, the ties win rule is like getting an extra half point on the spread. So, I would call this a 6.5-point teaser card. My formula suggests that the probability of a random pick winning would be e^0.128×6.5/ (1+e^0.128×6.5) = 69.68%. This is 0.24% less than the exact analysis I did suggests, which goes to show you that estimates are just that, estimates.

The following table shows the probability of any given leg winning, given 0 to 10 extra points, according to the Wizard Teaser Equation.

Following is my analysis of several types of teaser cards found in Las Vegas, from the least number of points to the most.

2.5-Point Teaser Card

The 2.5-point teaser card is available at MGM casinos only. All end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for 4 to 15 picks, assuming a random picker. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 57.93%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 32% to 81%.

The smart gambler could cut down these house advantages by playing situations where he gets more than 2.5 points only and/or crosses the 3- or 7-point margin of victory. However, the random-picker house edges are so high that I think these tricks would seldom get the bettor out of the hole.

3-Point Teaser Card

The 3-point teaser card is available only at the Stratosphere family of casinos. All spreads end in a 1/2, so there can be no ties. The following table shows that the probability of winning and expected return for 3 to 15 picks, assuming a random picker. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 59.49%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 25% to 83%.

As with any teaser card, the house edge can be cut significantly by getting more than the average number of points and/or crossing through key margins of victory. However, there are other kinds of teaser cards where the player doesn't start so deeply in the hole.

3.5-Point Teaser Card

The 3.5-point teaser card is available at Jerry's Nugget only. All spreads end in a 1/2, so there can be no ties. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for 4 to 15 picks, assuming a random picker. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 61.02%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 17% to 68%.

Again, these house edges can be cut by looking for games with more than 3.5 points and/or cut through the 3- or 7-point margin of victory. However, I think that strategy is better done off of the 6.5-point teaser card.

5-Point Teaser Card

I've seen three types of 5-point teaser cards, as follows:

• Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget: Point spreads always end in 1/2. For example, Titans +1.5 & Chargers +8.5. Number of points = (1.5+8.5)/2=5.
• Westgate: Point spreads are always integers and ties win. For example, Eagles -4 & Chargers +13. Remember, the ties win rule is worth half a point on each side. Number of points = (-4+13)/2 + 0.5 = 5.

The following table shows what each group pays on 5-point teasers.

Jerry's Nugget offers the best odds of the three, so I'll limit my analysis of the 5-point teaser to just their card. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 65.48%. The table shows the house edge for a random picker ranges from 26% to 60%.

5.5-Point Teaser Card

This is a common type of teaser card that I've seen at five different sports book families. They call them different things, with different rules, as follows:

• Wynn — 1/2 Point Teaser Card: All point spreads end in a half and the distance between the two spreads is always 11, or 5.5 points per team.
• South Point — Big Teaser Special: All point spreads are integers, ties lose, and the distance between the spreads is always 12. On integer spreads, a ties lose rule costs the player a half point. So, the average number of points each spread moves is 12/2 - 0.5 = 5.5.
• Boyd, Stations, Treasure Island Ties Win Teaser: All point spreads are integers, ties win, and the distance between the spreads is always 10. On integer spreads, a ties lose rule benefits the player a half point. So, the average number of points each spread moves is 10/2 + 0.5 = 5.5.

The following table shows what each family of sports books pays on the 5.5-point teaser.

According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the average picker can expect to win 66.91% of selections made. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the best pay tables for the random picker. The house edge varies from 15% to 46%.

The player can cut down the house edge by looking for situations where the line moved at least six points in the player's favor. About half of games will have such opportunities. For example, if the card maker does a half-point card, where every spread ends in a half, then if the original point spread ends in a half, he will have to move one side six points, and the other five. By picking only 6-point sides, the probability of success of each pick increases from 66.91% to an estimated 68.31%. The following table shows the expected return when the player picks only sides that move six points in his favor. The return ranges from a player edge of 15% to a house edge of 35%.

Comparing the above two tables, we see the decrease in house edge range from 5% for a 3-leg teaser to 31% for 15 legs. Unfortunately, the only advantage we see is for a 15-leg teaser. It would be almost impossible to see 15 6-point opportunities in one week in the NFL.

6-Point Teaser Card

Two groups offer 6-point teasers: William Hill and MGM. As the following table shows, William Hill offers equal or better odds than MGM at every number of picks, including a wider range from 3 to 20.

The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for 3 to 20 picks, assuming the William Hill pay table and a random picker. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 68.31%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 17% to 34%.

6.5-Point Teaser Card

The 6.5-point teaser card is offered by Caesars properties only. Point spreads are always integers and ties win. Remember that the "ties win" rule is worth half a point. For example, one game had lines of Eagles -2 and Chargers +14. The number of points is worth (-2+14)/2 + 0.5 = 6.5

Compared to most, if not all, teaser cards, the odds are pretty generous. Based on the Wizard Teaser Equation, a random picker can expect each leg to win with a probability of 69.68%. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a 4-leg to 15-leg teaser. The house edge varies from 11% to 25%.

These house edges are low enough to examine how the odds would change if the player only made these picks when he got 7 points. If the off the board (OTB) point spread ended in a half, then the card maker would have to move one side 5.5 and one side 6.5 points to make both spreads integers. Then, add another half point for the ties win rule, and you sometimes get to 7 points.

If the player chooses selections with an extra 7 points, compared to the OTB spread, then he can increase the win rate per leg from 69.68% for a random picker to an estimated 71.02%. This changes the return table as follows.

The good news is that according to the above table, the extra half point picker will have an 18% advantage with a 15-leg card. The bad news is that only about half of games will have such an opportunity. With at most 16 NFL games in a week, the odds are nearly impossible to have this many opportunities. Still, this shows the value of searching out extra half points. The player can cut down the house edge further by taking advantage of late line movements and/or crossing the key margin of victories of 3 and 7.

8-Point Ties Win Teaser Card

The Westgate is the only sports book to offer an 8-point teaser. The following table shows the odds.

The random picker can expect to win 73.58% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the Westgate pay table for the random picker. The house edge varies from 41% to 85%.

8.5-Point Ties Win Teaser Card

These are cards where the two point spreads on a given game are 16 points apart, always are integers, and ties win. The ties win rule is worth half a point, so the value per side is 16/2 + 0.5 = 8.5 points. Here is what the sports books call them.

• Caesars — "Ties Win" Super Teaser Card
• MGM — Ties Win Super Teaser
• Stratosphere — Super Teaser Card
• Stations — Mega Teaser Special

The following table shows what the four sports book families that offer these pay. As you can see, there is a three way tie for first, with Stations offering inferior odds to everybody else.

According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the random picker can expect to win 74.81% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the best pay tables for the random picker. The house edge varies from 37% to 60%.

9-Point Ties Win Teaser Card

Two sports books offer 9-point teasers, Boyd Gaming and the Golden Nugget.

According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the random picker can expect to win 75.99% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the higher win between Boyd and the Golden Nugget for the random picker. The house edge varies from 27% to 51%.

9.5-Point Ties Win Teaser Card

Two sports books offer 9.5-point teasers, the Treasure Island and Westgate. Their pay tables are as follows. As you can see, the Treasure Island offers consistently better odds.

According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the random picker can expect to win 77.14% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the Treasure Island pay table for the random picker. The house edge varies from 26% to 38%.

10-Point Ties Win Teaser Card

Only William Hill offers a 10-point teaser. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the random picker can expect to win 78.25% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the William Hill odds for the random picker. The house edge varies from 18% to 29%.

Summary

For the random picker, teasers are absolutely a sucker bet with an enormous house edge. If you must bet them, the house edge is less betting off the board, but still high. Here is some advice on how to decrease the house edge on teasers.

• Bet at the sports books that pay the best odds.
• Try to cross as many key margin of victories as you can, especially 3 and 7.
• Get as many points as you can between the spread on the card and off the board (this advice applies to cards only).

If you must bet teasers, then the best method is known as the Wong teaser. This is an off the board teaser off certain spreads that cross the 3- and 7-point margins of victory.

If you must bet teaser cards, the best overall odds can be found on the Caesars 6.5-point card.

Internal Links

• Parlay Bets in the NFL
• Pleaser Bets in the NFL
• Betting the NFL
• Las Vegas Sports Book Groups
• Miscellaneous topics in betting the NFL

External Links

• Las Vegas Sports Betting Survey — What each sports book family pays on parlays and teasers.

Written by: Michael Shackleford