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Parlay Bets in the NFL

Introduction

In gambling terms, "parlay" means to bet on at least two events, letting the winnings ride after each win. Usually you lose, but when you win, and depending in part on how many events were parlayed, you can win big.

In sports betting, the bettor can parlay wins even if the games occur simultaneously. This can be done either "off the board" or with parlay cards. This page address both methods and included three common types of parlay cards. What I hope to convey via this page is that randomly making selections on parlay cards is a bad way to bet sports and results in a high house edge. However, the sharp bettor can take advantage of line moves off common margins of victory in the NFL and gain a strong advantage, of 30% or more, on half point parlay cards.

Compare Online NFL Odds

nfl_icon.png American Football : NFL
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Upcoming matches Game Money Line Spread Total
Thu Sep 5th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - baltimore-ravens

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$50

3.4
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T&C’s Apply. 21+. Invited Friend must play through their $50 Sign-Up Bonus once within 30 days. After the Invited Friend completes the 1x wagering requirement, Invitee will receive the $50 Referral Bonus.
-145
-105 (-3) -107 (46.5)
Fri Sep 6th 7pm Philadelphia Eagles - green-bay-packers -115 100 (-1.5) -107 (48.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Chicago Bears - tennessee-titans

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3.3
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
-195
-105 (-4)

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$50

3.4
Claim
T&C’s Apply. 21+. Invited Friend must play through their $50 Sign-Up Bonus once within 30 days. After the Invited Friend completes the 1x wagering requirement, Invitee will receive the $50 Referral Bonus.
-105 (43.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - washington-commanders -185 -105 (-4) -105 (41.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Buffalo Bills - arizona-cardinals

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50% up to
$1000

3.2
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit $55.
-310
-105 (-7) -105 (48.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - pittsburgh-steelers

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$50

3.4
Claim
T&C’s Apply. 21+. Invited Friend must play through their $50 Sign-Up Bonus once within 30 days. After the Invited Friend completes the 1x wagering requirement, Invitee will receive the $50 Referral Bonus.
-145
105 (-3) -107 (43)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm New Orleans Saints - carolina-panthers -205 -105 (-5) -105 (40.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - new-england-patriots -400 -105 (-9) -105 (43.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - houston-texans

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125% up to
$2500

3.3
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
120
-105 (2) -105 (48.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Miami Dolphins - jacksonville-jaguars

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125% up to
$2500

3.3
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
-175
-105 (-3.5) -102 (49)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm New York Giants - minnesota-vikings -110 -105 (-1) -107 (41.5)
Sun Sep 8th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - las-vegas-raiders -170 -102 (-3.5) -107 (43.5)
Sun Sep 8th 4pm Cleveland Browns - dallas-cowboys

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125% up to
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3.3
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
105
100 (1) -107 (44)
Sun Sep 8th 4pm Seattle Seahawks - denver-broncos

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$50

3.4
Claim
T&C’s Apply. 21+. Invited Friend must play through their $50 Sign-Up Bonus once within 30 days. After the Invited Friend completes the 1x wagering requirement, Invitee will receive the $50 Referral Bonus.
-210
-105 (-5) -105 (42.5)
Sun Sep 8th 7pm Detroit Lions - los-angeles-rams -175 -105 (-3.5) -107 (51)
Sun Sep 8th 8pm Miami Dolphins - buffalo-bills -110 (-1.5) -110 (51.5)
Mon Sep 9th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - new-york-jets

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50% up to
$1000

3.2
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit $55.
-225
-105 (-5) -107 (45)
Mon Sep 9th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - new-york-jets -230 -105 (-6) -105 (45.5)
Thu Sep 12th 8pm Miami Dolphins - buffalo-bills -108 -110 (-1) -105 (51.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Baltimore Ravens - las-vegas-raiders -340 -109 (-8) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Carolina Panthers - los-angeles-chargers 185 -110 (5) -110 (41.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - cleveland-browns -110 -105 (-1) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Dallas Cowboys - new-orleans-saints -250 -109 (-6) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Detroit Lions - tampa-bay-buccaneers -250 -110 (-6) -109 (49)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Green Bay Packers - indianapolis-colts -192 -108 (-4) -108 (47)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - san-francisco-49ers 235 -109 (6.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm New England Patriots - seattle-seahawks 130 100 (2.5) -110 (42.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Washington Commanders - new-york-giants -135 100 (-3) -107 (43)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Tennessee Titans - new-york-jets 154 -109 (3.5) -109 (44.5)
Sun Sep 15th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-rams 118 -107 (2.5) -108 (48.5)
Sun Sep 15th 4pm Kansas City Chiefs - cincinnati-bengals -192 -101 (-3.5) -105 (48.5)
Sun Sep 15th 4pm Denver Broncos - pittsburgh-steelers 130 -108 (3) -110 (41.5)
Sun Sep 15th 8pm Houston Texans - chicago-bears -170 -109 (-4) -109 (46.5)
Mon Sep 16th 8pm Philadelphia Eagles - atlanta-falcons -166 -105 (-3.5) -110 (48.5)
Thu Sep 19th 8pm New York Jets - new-england-patriots -320 -110 (-7.5) -110 (42)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Indianapolis Colts - chicago-bears -130 -110 (-2) -108 (47)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Cleveland Browns - new-york-giants -240 -108 (-6.5) -108 (42.5)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - denver-broncos -160 -110 (-3.5) -110 (43)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Tennessee Titans - green-bay-packers 175 -110 (3.5) -110 (44)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Minnesota Vikings - houston-texans 180 100 (3.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - los-angeles-chargers -125 -110 (-2) -108 (42.5)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm New Orleans Saints - philadelphia-eagles 143 -110 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - carolina-panthers -185 -110 (-4) -110 (42)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Seattle Seahawks - miami-dolphins 122 -110 (2) -110 (49)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Arizona Cardinals - detroit-lions 160 -110 (4) -108 (50)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Dallas Cowboys - baltimore-ravens -112 -105 (-1) -110 (48)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Los Angeles Rams - san-francisco-49ers 162 -110 (3) -108 (48)
Sun Sep 22nd 8pm Atlanta Falcons - kansas-city-chiefs 152 -110 (3) -110 (49)
Mon Sep 23rd 7pm Buffalo Bills - jacksonville-jaguars -190 -110 (-5) -110 (49)
Mon Sep 23rd 8pm Cincinnati Bengals - washington-commanders -278 -115 (-7) -110 (48)
Thu Sep 26th 8pm New York Giants - dallas-cowboys 180 -110 (4) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - new-orleans-saints -185 -110 (-4) -108 (44.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Carolina Panthers - cincinnati-bengals 220 -110 (6.5) -108 (46)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Chicago Bears - los-angeles-rams -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (47)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm New York Jets - denver-broncos -278 -110 (-7.5) -110 (42.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Green Bay Packers - minnesota-vikings -218 -110 (-5) -108 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Houston Texans - jacksonville-jaguars -175 -108 (-3.5) -110 (47.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - pittsburgh-steelers -110 -110 (-0.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - philadelphia-eagles 135 -110 (2.5) -110 (47)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - washington-commanders -135 -112 (-2.5) -108 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - new-england-patriots -600 -110 (-11.5) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - cleveland-browns 120 -110 (2.5) -108 (43.5)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - kansas-city-chiefs 152 100 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 8pm Baltimore Ravens - buffalo-bills -155 -110 (-3) -110 (47.5)
Mon Sep 30th 7pm Miami Dolphins - tennessee-titans -270 -110 (-6.5) -110 (46)
Mon Sep 30th 8pm Detroit Lions - seattle-seahawks -245 -110 (-6) -110 (49)
Thu Oct 3rd 8pm Atlanta Falcons - tampa-bay-buccaneers -160 -115 (-3) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 6th 8am Minnesota Vikings - new-york-jets 175 -112 (4) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - baltimore-ravens -120 -110 (-1.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Houston Texans - buffalo-bills -125 -110 (-1.5) -110 (48)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Chicago Bears - carolina-panthers -218 -108 (-5.5) -108 (42)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Washington Commanders - cleveland-browns 158 -105 (3) -108 (43.5)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - indianapolis-colts -142 -110 (-2.5) -108 (47)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm New England Patriots - miami-dolphins 205 -110 (4.5) -110 (45)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - arizona-cardinals -425 -110 (-9.5) -110 (47)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm Denver Broncos - las-vegas-raiders -112 -105 (-1) -110 (41)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - green-bay-packers -130 -112 (-1.5) -108 (48.5)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm Seattle Seahawks - new-york-giants -160 -110 (-3.5) -108 (43)
Sun Oct 6th 8pm Pittsburgh Steelers - dallas-cowboys 122 -108 (1.5) -110 (43)
Mon Oct 7th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - new-orleans-saints -355 -110 (-8) -110 (44.5)
Thu Oct 10th 8pm Seattle Seahawks - san-francisco-49ers 196 -110 (5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 8am Chicago Bears - jacksonville-jaguars -102 -115 (1) -105 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Green Bay Packers - arizona-cardinals -210 -110 (-5) -108 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Baltimore Ravens - washington-commanders -355 -110 (-8) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Philadelphia Eagles - cleveland-browns -148 -108 (-3) -108 (45.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm New England Patriots - houston-texans 175 -110 (4.5) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Tennessee Titans - indianapolis-colts 105 -108 (1.5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm New Orleans Saints - tampa-bay-buccaneers -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (43)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Denver Broncos - los-angeles-chargers 122 -110 (2) -110 (43)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - pittsburgh-steelers -105 -112 (1) -110 (42)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - detroit-lions -110 -110 (-0.5) -110 (48.5)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Carolina Panthers - atlanta-falcons 154 -108 (3.5) -108 (44)
Sun Oct 13th 8pm New York Giants - cincinnati-bengals 196 -110 (4.5) -108 (45)
Mon Oct 14th 8pm New York Jets - buffalo-bills -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (47.5)
Thu Oct 17th 8pm New Orleans Saints - denver-broncos -180 -110 (-3.5) -110 (42.5)
Sun Oct 20th 8am Jacksonville Jaguars - new-england-patriots -260 -115 (-7) -110 (42.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - seattle-seahawks -175 -108 (-3.5) -110 (48)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Buffalo Bills - tennessee-titans -340 -120 (-7) -112 (47.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Cleveland Browns - cincinnati-bengals -108 -115 (1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - detroit-lions 158 100 (3) -108 (48)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Green Bay Packers - houston-texans -130 -108 (-2.5) -110 (48.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - miami-dolphins -105 -110 (1) -110 (49)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm New York Giants - philadelphia-eagles 196 -110 (4.5) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 20th 3pm San Francisco 49ers - kansas-city-chiefs -118 -110 (-1) -110 (49)
Sun Oct 20th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - las-vegas-raiders -218 -110 (-4.5) -110 (46)
Sun Oct 20th 4pm Washington Commanders - carolina-panthers -155 -110 (-3) -110 (42)
Sun Oct 20th 8pm Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-jets -105 -110 (1) -110 (43)
Mon Oct 21st 8pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - baltimore-ravens 185 -108 (5) -110 (46)
Mon Oct 21st 9pm Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-chargers -118 -110 (-1) -110 (45)
Thu Oct 24th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - minnesota-vikings -175 -108 (-3.5) -108 (45.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Cleveland Browns - baltimore-ravens -105 -110 (1) -110 (45.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Detroit Lions - tennessee-titans -310 -110 (-7) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Miami Dolphins - arizona-cardinals -250 -110 (-6) -110 (48.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - atlanta-falcons -115 -112 (-1) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Washington Commanders - chicago-bears 110 -108 (2) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - green-bay-packers -105 -110 (1) -110 (46)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Houston Texans - indianapolis-colts -198 -110 (-4) -108 (48)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm New England Patriots - new-york-jets 180 -110 (4.5) -110 (41.5)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Seattle Seahawks - buffalo-bills 124 -115 (3) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - new-orleans-saints -155 -110 (-3) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Denver Broncos - carolina-panthers -135 -110 (-2.5) -110 (42)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Cincinnati Bengals - philadelphia-eagles -155 -108 (-3) -110 (47.5)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - kansas-city-chiefs 205 -110 (5) -110 (47)
Sun Oct 27th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - dallas-cowboys -210 -110 (-5.5) -110 (46)
Mon Oct 28th 8pm Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-giants -185 -110 (-4) -110 (42.5)
Thu Oct 31st 8pm New York Jets - houston-texans -142 100 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Atlanta Falcons - dallas-cowboys -105 -110 (1) -110 (48)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Baltimore Ravens - denver-broncos -500 -110 (-10.5) -110 (43)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Buffalo Bills - miami-dolphins -155 -110 (-3) -110 (51)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Carolina Panthers - new-orleans-saints 100 -108 (1) -110 (40.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - las-vegas-raiders -310 -112 (-7) -108 (45)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Cleveland Browns - los-angeles-chargers -170 -120 (-3) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Minnesota Vikings - indianapolis-colts -110 -105 (-1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Tennessee Titans - new-england-patriots -148 -120 (-2.5) -110 (41)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm New York Giants - washington-commanders -125 -110 (-1.5) -110 (42)
Sun Nov 3rd 4pm Arizona Cardinals - chicago-bears -108 -115 (1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 4pm Green Bay Packers - detroit-lions -125 -110 (-1.5) -110 (49)
Sun Nov 3rd 4pm Seattle Seahawks - los-angeles-rams 105 -110 (1.5) -108 (46.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 8pm Philadelphia Eagles - jacksonville-jaguars -185 -105 (-3.5) -108 (47)
Mon Nov 4th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - tampa-bay-buccaneers -355 -120 (-7) -110 (47)
Thu Nov 7th 8pm Baltimore Ravens - cincinnati-bengals -155 -110 (-3) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 10th 7am Carolina Panthers - new-york-giants 112 -110 (1) -108 (42.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm New Orleans Saints - atlanta-falcons 105 -108 (1.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - buffalo-bills 122 -110 (2) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Chicago Bears - new-england-patriots -225 -110 (-5.5) -110 (43)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Kansas City Chiefs - denver-broncos -410 -110 (-9) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - minnesota-vikings -170 -120 (-3) -108 (44.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Washington Commanders - pittsburgh-steelers 102 -110 (1.5) -108 (43.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - san-francisco-49ers 205 -108 (4) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 10th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - tennessee-titans -180 -110 (-4) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 10th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - new-york-jets 130 -110 (3) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 10th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - philadelphia-eagles -125 -110 (-2) -110 (48)
Sun Nov 10th 8pm Houston Texans - detroit-lions -112 -108 (-1) -110 (50)
Mon Nov 11th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - miami-dolphins -115 -110 (-1) -110 (47.5)
Thu Nov 14th 8pm Philadelphia Eagles - washington-commanders -278 -110 (-6.5) -110 (45.5)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - baltimore-ravens 130 -115 (3) -110 (43)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Chicago Bears - green-bay-packers -108 -102 (-1) -108 (44.5)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm New Orleans Saints - cleveland-browns 122 -110 (2) -110 (42)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Detroit Lions - jacksonville-jaguars -192 -110 (-4) -110 (50)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Miami Dolphins - las-vegas-raiders -285 -110 (-6.5) -110 (47)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm New England Patriots - los-angeles-rams 180 -110 (4) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Tennessee Titans - minnesota-vikings -105 -112 (1) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm Denver Broncos - atlanta-falcons 142 100 (3) -110 (44.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - seattle-seahawks -355 -110 (-9) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm Buffalo Bills - kansas-city-chiefs 100 -102 (-1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - cincinnati-bengals 110 -108 (2) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 17th 8pm New York Jets - indianapolis-colts -192 -110 (-4) -110 (46)
Mon Nov 18th 8pm Dallas Cowboys - houston-texans -155 -110 (-3) -108 (49)
Thu Nov 21st 8pm Cleveland Browns - pittsburgh-steelers -142 100 (-3) -108 (43.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Carolina Panthers - kansas-city-chiefs 278 100 (7) -110 (45.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Chicago Bears - minnesota-vikings -166 -120 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Washington Commanders - dallas-cowboys 158 -105 (3) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - detroit-lions 114 -108 (2.5) -110 (48.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Houston Texans - tennessee-titans -250 -110 (-6) -108 (46.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Miami Dolphins - new-england-patriots -355 -110 (-7.5) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm New York Giants - tampa-bay-buccaneers -105 -110 (1) -112 (44)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - denver-broncos -125 -110 (-3) -110 (42)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks 135 -110 (3) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Green Bay Packers - san-francisco-49ers 122 -110 (2.5) -110 (47)
Sun Nov 24th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - philadelphia-eagles -112 -110 (-0.5) -110 (47)
Mon Nov 25th 8pm Los Angeles Chargers - baltimore-ravens 135 -112 (3) -110 (47)
Thu Nov 28th 12pm Detroit Lions - chicago-bears -192 -108 (-4) -108 (50)
Thu Nov 28th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - new-york-giants -375 -110 (-8) -110 (45.5)
Thu Nov 28th 8pm Green Bay Packers - miami-dolphins -155 -110 (-3) -110 (48.5)
Fri Nov 29th 3pm Kansas City Chiefs - las-vegas-raiders -340 -120 (-7) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Minnesota Vikings - arizona-cardinals -120 -108 (-1.5) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Atlanta Falcons - los-angeles-chargers -135 -110 (-2.5) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - pittsburgh-steelers -218 -110 (-5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - houston-texans -112 -105 (-1) -110 (47)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm New England Patriots - indianapolis-colts 152 100 (2) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm New York Jets - seattle-seahawks -198 -110 (-4.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Washington Commanders - tennessee-titans -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm Carolina Panthers - tampa-bay-buccaneers 105 -110 (2) -108 (43)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm New Orleans Saints - los-angeles-rams 105 -110 (1.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm Baltimore Ravens - philadelphia-eagles -190 -110 (-4) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 8pm Buffalo Bills - san-francisco-49ers 105 -110 (2) -110 (47)
Mon Dec 2nd 7pm Denver Broncos - cleveland-browns 150 -110 (3.5) -110 (43)
Thu Dec 5th 8pm Detroit Lions - green-bay-packers -155 -120 (-3) -110 (48)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - atlanta-falcons -102 -108 (1) -108 (45)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Philadelphia Eagles - carolina-panthers -355 -110 (-7.5) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - cleveland-browns -110 -102 (-1) -110 (43.5)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Tennessee Titans - jacksonville-jaguars 102 -110 (1.5) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - las-vegas-raiders -148 -120 (-2.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Miami Dolphins - new-york-jets -130 -110 (-2) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm New York Giants - new-orleans-saints -110 -118 (1) -110 (41)
Sun Dec 8th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks -115 -108 (-1) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 8th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - buffalo-bills -105 -110 (1) -110 (48)
Sun Dec 8th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - chicago-bears -230 -110 (-5.5) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 8th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - los-angeles-chargers -265 -110 (-6.5) -110 (44.5)
Mon Dec 9th 8pm Dallas Cowboys - cincinnati-bengals -118 -110 (-1) -110 (48.5)
Thu Dec 12th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - los-angeles-rams -270 -108 (-6.5) -108 (47)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Carolina Panthers - dallas-cowboys 225 -110 (6.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Cleveland Browns - kansas-city-chiefs 122 -120 (3) -108 (46.5)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm New York Giants - baltimore-ravens 225 -108 (6.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Tennessee Titans - cincinnati-bengals 170 -110 (4.5) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Houston Texans - miami-dolphins -142 -110 (-2.5) -110 (49.5)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - new-york-jets -105 -110 (1) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm New Orleans Saints - washington-commanders -148 -110 (-3) -108 (42)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - new-england-patriots -180 -110 (-3.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Detroit Lions - buffalo-bills -135 -110 (-2) -110 (50.5)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Denver Broncos - indianapolis-colts 120 -110 (2.5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - tampa-bay-buccaneers -145 -105 (-3) -110 (42.5)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Philadelphia Eagles - pittsburgh-steelers -205 -110 (-4.5) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 15th 8pm Seattle Seahawks - green-bay-packers -102 -110 (1) -108 (47)
Mon Dec 16th 7pm Minnesota Vikings - chicago-bears -110 -115 (1) -110 (46)
Mon Dec 16th 7pm Las Vegas Raiders - atlanta-falcons -105 -110 (1) -108 (45.5)
Thu Dec 19th 8pm Cincinnati Bengals - cleveland-browns -180 -108 (-3.5) -110 (45.5)
Sat Dec 21st 1pm Kansas City Chiefs - houston-texans -205 -108 (-4.5) -110 (47)
Sat Dec 21st 4pm Baltimore Ravens - pittsburgh-steelers -238 -105 (-6) -110 (42.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Carolina Panthers - arizona-cardinals -102 -110 (1) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Atlanta Falcons - new-york-giants -198 -110 (-4.5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Buffalo Bills - new-england-patriots -395 -110 (-8.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Chicago Bears - detroit-lions -108 -115 (1) -108 (47)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Indianapolis Colts - tennessee-titans -192 -110 (-4) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm New York Jets - los-angeles-rams -155 -110 (-3) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Washington Commanders - philadelphia-eagles 158 -105 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - denver-broncos -185 -110 (-4) -110 (43)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Seattle Seahawks - minnesota-vikings -125 -110 (-2) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - jacksonville-jaguars -105 -115 (1) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Miami Dolphins - san-francisco-49ers -105 -110 (1) -110 (49)
Sun Dec 22nd 8pm Dallas Cowboys - tampa-bay-buccaneers -205 -110 (-4.5) -110 (46.5)
Mon Dec 23rd 8pm Green Bay Packers - new-orleans-saints -218 -110 (-5) -110 (45)
Wed Dec 25th 4pm Pittsburgh Steelers - kansas-city-chiefs 230 -105 (4) -105 (41.5)
Wed Dec 25th 8pm Houston Texans - baltimore-ravens 108 -110 (1.5) -108 (46.5)
Thu Dec 26th 8pm Chicago Bears - seattle-seahawks -175 -108 (-3.5) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Buffalo Bills - new-york-jets -142 -115 (-2.5) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - carolina-panthers -205 -108 (-5) -108 (43)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - green-bay-packers 122 -108 (2) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - tennessee-titans -192 -108 (-4) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm New Orleans Saints - las-vegas-raiders -155 -120 (-2.5) -110 (43)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Washington Commanders - atlanta-falcons 124 100 (2.5) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - denver-broncos -375 -110 (-8) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm New York Giants - indianapolis-colts 110 -108 (2) -110 (43.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm New England Patriots - los-angeles-chargers 135 100 (2.5) -110 (41)
Sun Dec 29th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - arizona-cardinals -240 -108 (-6) -110 (48)
Sun Dec 29th 4pm Philadelphia Eagles - dallas-cowboys -135 -110 (-2) -110 (47)
Sun Dec 29th 8pm Cleveland Browns - miami-dolphins -130 -110 (-2) -110 (44.5)
Mon Dec 30th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - detroit-lions -205 -110 (-4.5) -108 (49.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - carolina-panthers -278 -110 (-6.5) -110 (45.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Baltimore Ravens - cleveland-browns -205 -110 (-4.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm New England Patriots - buffalo-bills 150 -110 (3.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Green Bay Packers - chicago-bears -170 -120 (-3) -110 (46)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - cincinnati-bengals -102 -110 (1) -108 (43.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Dallas Cowboys - washington-commanders -230 -110 (-5.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Detroit Lions - minnesota-vikings -245 -115 (-5.5) -110 (47)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Tennessee Titans - houston-texans 130 -110 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - jacksonville-jaguars -130 -110 (-2) -108 (46.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm New York Jets - miami-dolphins -155 -110 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - new-orleans-saints -135 -110 (-2.5) -108 (43)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Philadelphia Eagles - new-york-giants -205 -110 (-5) -110 (43)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - san-francisco-49ers 164 -108 (4) -110 (43)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Denver Broncos - kansas-city-chiefs 160 -110 (4) -110 (42.5)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - los-angeles-chargers -105 -112 (1) -110 (43.5)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - seattle-seahawks -225 -108 (-5.5) -110 (47)

Let me make a disclaimer to take any win probabilities and expected returns on this page with a grain of salt. I had to make assumptions about how point spreads on parlay cards were deliberately moved to either an integer or not an integer, depending on the card. My data also does not reflect the fact that lines often move from the time a parlay card is printed to the time of the game. On the one hand, the card maker may carefully set the point spreads to minimize player advantage. On the other, it is a known fact that closing lines are sharper than opening lines, and the player can take advantage of these line movements by putting in parlay cards at the last minute. All things considered, I believe there are large advantages to be gained with half point parlay cards, but the advantages can not be calculated exactly. They could be greater or smaller.

After reading this page, skeptics may wonder if it is so easy to beat half point parlay cards, why isn't everybody doing so? A lot of bettors are. Sports books are nervous about taking them, because they do tend to get hammered on the same side of certain hot games. However, I imagine to many professional gamblers, they are not a viable advantage play because:

  1. It is hard to get a lot of money down. The most you can usually bet on a single parlay card is $200, and even a bet of $100 may set off red flags if all the choices are correlated on the hot sides.
  2. They are time consuming to bubble in.
  3. It is feast or famine. Generally speaking, the more legs the player makes, the greater the advantage. For example, an 8-leg half point parlay pays at most 200 to 1. Of course, such long-shot bets usually lose.
 

You'll have to decide for yourself if parlay cards are for you. However, if you do bet them, hopefully you'll learn a thing or two from my analysis.

Methodology

All win percentages in this page are based on the 4,950 games played in the 1994 to 2012 seasons. Except as noted, all picks refer to betting against the spread. I don't recommend betting totals on parlay cards unless there is a significant line movement.

Off the Board Parlays

"Off the Board" parlays are based on the current point spreads on the betting board at the time of the bet. No card is filled out. Instead, the bettor tells the writer the bet numbers he wishes to parlay and the amount of the bet. The following table shows what parlay bets pay according to the number of picks and the sports book group, assuming that odds on each leg individually are -110 (bettor must risk $11 to win $10). Wins in this table are on a "to one" basis. In other words, the original wager is returned if the bet wins.

Parlays off the Board — Pay Table

Sportsbook Legs
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Boyd 2.6 6 10 20 40 80 160    
Cantor 2.6 6 10 20 40        
Golden Nugget 2.6 6 11 22 40 75 140    
Caesars 2.6 6 10 20 40 75 140    
LVH 2.6 6 11 22 40 75 140    
Jerry's Nugget 2.7 6.5 13 26 47 92 180    
MGM 2.6 6 10 20 40 80 150    
Stations 2.6 6 11 22 40 80 150    
Stratosphere 2.6 6 11 22 40 80 160    
Treasure Island 2.6 6 10 20 40 80 160    
William Hill 2.6 6 11 22 45 90 180 360 720
Wynn 2.6 6 10 20 40        
South Point 2.6 6 10 20 40 75 150    

What this table shows is that Jerry's Nugget has the most liberal off the board parlay odds across the board. Other than convenience, there should be no reason to make off the board parlay bets anywhere else in Vegas.

When players include a leg in a parlay that doesn't pay -110 odds, then the above pay tables are not used. Instead, when the writer enters the legs of the parlay, the computer will perform a calculation for what the bet should pay. It does this as if each bet were independently made, letting all wins ride. For example, if you parlay one game against the spread at -110 and another against the money line at +250, and both win, then you will be paid (210/110)×(350/100) - 1 = 5.68 to 1.

With the exception of the three-leg parlay, and the generous Jerry's Nugget odds, you will get a better value mixing in at least one leg not at -110 in a parlay. Here are three ways to do it:

  • Mix in a money line bet, preferably on an underdog.
  • Mix in a lopsided line, which are usually off of three points. For example, laying 105 or 115 on one leg.
  • Buy a half point off of one leg. They probably won't let you do it off of three points, so preferably lay 120 to get +7.5 on a 7-point underdog, or -6.5 on a 7-point favorite. When in doubt, go with the underdog at +7.5.
 

Let's see how this works with an example.

  • Jesse does a six-leg parlay, all against a -110 spread, at one of the many sports books that pay 40 to 1. His probability of winning is (1/2)6 = 1.5625%. His expected return is (1/2)6×(40+1) = 64.06%.
  • Walter also does a six-leg parlay on the same teams. Five he leaves alone at -110 odds. On the sixth, he buys the half point off a 7-point underdog, to get +7.5. He must pay -120 for the half point. The parlay will pay (210/110)5×(220/120) - 1 = 45.49 to 1. Besides getting a much larger win, his probability of winning goes up too, because of the extra half point. To be specific, the probability of winning the leg with the extra half point off seven is 51.95%. So, his overall probability of winning is (1/2)5 × 0.5195 = 1.6234%. His expected return is 0.016234 × (45.49+1) = 77.10%.
 

So, by buying that half point off of seven, Walter increases his expected return by 13% compared to Jesse.

As mentioned, an exception to the above advice is the standard pay of 6 for a three-leg parlay is more generous than what the 5.96 that the calculation method would give you. To summarize here is my advice for off the board parlays.

At Jerry's Nugget: Stick with -110 events, except for a six-team parlay, where it is marginally better to mix in at least one pick that isn't -110.
Not at Jerry's Nugget: With a three-team parlay, stick with -110 events. Otherwise, mix in any event that isn't -110.
 

Yet another piece of advice, and this is the single most important piece of advice when it comes to betting sports, is to bet on underdogs! Since 1994, 51.6% of underdogs beat the spread in games resolved. If you think that trend is over, the following table shows the underdog win rate against the spread year by year.

Underdog Win Rate against the Spread

Season Wins Losses Win Rate
1994 236 206 53.39%
1995 254 226 52.92%
1996 244 240 50.41%
1997 248 210 54.15%
1998 222 254 46.64%
1999 274 228 54.58%
2000 266 234 53.20%
2001 248 230 51.88%
2002 284 236 54.62%
2003 254 254 50.00%
2004 272 240 53.13%
2005 214 298 41.80%
2006 298 218 57.75%
2007 244 260 48.41%
2008 264 250 51.36%
2009 264 254 50.97%
2010 268 250 51.74%
2011 264 238 52.59%
2012 262 252 50.97%
Average 4880 4578 51.60%

It is important to emphasize this point, so let me give you a chart as well.

In conclusion, my advice for betting parlays "off the board" is:

  1. Bet on underdogs.
  2. Bet at Jerry's Nugget or make at least one pick that isn't -110 odds.
  3. If you must stick to the -110 events, and aren't at Jerry's Nugget, bet only the three-leg parlay.

Half Point Parlay Cards

What distinguishes half point parlay cards from other parlay cards is every point spread or total always ends in one half. Thus, there can never be a tie. Most places call these a "1/2 Point Parlay Card," but some just title them a "Parlay Card." The random picker can expect to get 50% of picks correct.

However, the smart picker can gain an extra half point compared to integer "off the board" numbers. For example, suppose the Saints are a five-point favorite over the Falcons, off the board. The half point card is very likely to move that point spread to either 4.5 or 5.5. If they move it to 4.5, then bet Saints -4.5. If they move it to 5.5, then bet Falcons +5.5. Better yet, get those extra half points of the key numbers of 3 and 7, because 25.35% of NFL games end in a margin of victory of one of those two key numbers.

 

The following table shows what half point parlay cards pay at various sports books around Las Vegas. Wins in this table are on a "for one" basis. In other words, the original wager is not returned, even if the bet wins. If forced to choose the best, I would say it is William Hill, who have the best, or tied for the best, payoffs for all number of picks except 10 and 12. In those cases, MGM Premium Payout card is the best.

Half Point Parlay Card — Pay Table

Sportsbook Legs
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Aliante 6.5 12 25 50 100 180 375 800 1300 2500
Boyd 6.5 12 25 46 90 170 375 800    
Caesars 6 12 22 40 85 170 340 700   6/60/1400
Golden Nugget 6.5 12 25 50 100 180 400 800    
Jerry's Nugget 6.5 12 25 40 80 160 375 750    
LVH 6.5 12 22 42 80 156 400 800 1500  
MGM 6 11 22 42 85 170 340 700 1400  
MGM-PP       45 88 190 375 850 1600 3000/50
South Point 6.5 12 25 50 100 175 375 800    
Stations 6.5 12 22.5 40 80 160 350 800    
Stratosphere 6.5 12 25 45 85 170 375 800    
Treasure Island 6.5 12.5 25 45 85 160 350 800    
William Hill (Southern Nevada) 6.5 13 25 50 100 190 400 825 1500 3000
William Hill (Northern Nevada) 6.75 13 26 52 104 208 425 850 1500 3000
Max 6.75 13 26 52 104 208 425 850 1600 3000

Note:

  1. The Caesars Super Parlay Special pays 1,400 for catching 12, 60 for 11, and 6 for 10 .
  2. The MGM pick-12 Premium Payout parlay card pays 3,000 for catching 12, and a "bad beat" pay of 50 for catching 11. More on those below.
 

Random Picker

The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return of a random picker, based on the William Hill (Southern Nevada) odds. The probability of each pick winning is exactly 50.0%. The table shows a very high house edge. If you must pick randomly, the lowest house edge is 16.92% on both the pick-10.

Half Point Parlay Card — Random Picker

Legs Pays Prob. Win Exp. Value
3 6.5 0.125000 -0.187500
4 13 0.062500 -0.187500
5 25 0.031250 -0.218750
6 50 0.015625 -0.218750
7 100 0.007813 -0.218750
8 200 0.003906 -0.218750
9 400 0.001953 -0.218750
10 850 0.000977 -0.169922
11 1,600 0.000488 -0.218750
12 3,000 0.000244 -0.267578

Gaining a Half Point


This parlay, which I bet twice, lost
on the Packers only, who won by 2.

The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return of someone who randomly picks off all games with an integer point spread on the board, to gain the extra half point. The probability of each pick winning is exactly 52.76%. The pays are based on the southern Nevada William Hill card. The table shows a player advantage starting with the pick-4, with a maximum advantage of 38.35% on the pick-12. The best Kelly bet is on the pick-6, where the ratio of advantage to variance is 0.001403.

Half Point Parlay Card — Half Point Picker

Legs Pays Prob. Win Exp. Value
3 6.5 0.146839 -0.045548
4 13 0.077468 0.007081
5 25 0.040870 0.021743
6 50 0.021562 0.078082
7 100 0.011375 0.137528
8 190 0.006001 0.140239
9 400 0.003166 0.266435
10 825 0.001670 0.378025
11 1,500 0.000881 0.321827
12 3,000 0.000465 0.394713

Gaining a Half Point off of 3 and 7.

The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return of someone who randomly picks off all games with integer point spreads of 3 and 7 only, to gain the extra half point. The probability of each pick winning is exactly 54.42%. Again, the pays are based on the southern Nevada William Hill card. The table shows a player advantage on every number of picks, with a maximum advantage of 103% on the pick-12. However, 25.03% of NFL games have a point spread of 3 or 7. Based on a 16-game week, you can expect four games only to meet that criteria. The best Kelly bet is conveniently on the pick-4, where the ratio of advantage to variance is 0.010380.

Half Point Parlay Card — Half Point off 3 and 7 Picker

Legs Pays Prob. Win Exp. Value
3 6.5 0.161187 0.047718
4 13 0.087722 0.140384
5 25 0.047740 0.193507
6 50 0.025981 0.299068
7 100 0.014140 0.413966
8 190 0.007695 0.462074
9 400 0.004188 0.675146
10 825 0.002279 0.880285
11 1,500 0.001240 0.860536
12 3,000 0.000675 1.025093
 

Southern vs. Northern Nevada

 

Not only does northern Nevada enjoy plenty of water (at least until we build a pipeline to take it from them) but a more generous William Hill half point parlay card. As an example of how much these premium pays help, the following table shows the expected value under both the southern and northern Nevada parlay cards, based on a hypothetical 54% chance of correctly picking each leg, which I think is a reasonable estimate.

William Hill Parlay Odds — Southern vs. Northern Nevada

Legs Southern
Nevada
Pays
Northern
Nevada
Pays
Prob. Win Southern
Nevada
Exp. Val.
Northern
Nevada
Exp. Val.
3 6.5 6.75 15.75% 2.35% 6.29%
4 13 13 8.50% 10.54% 10.54%
5 25 26 4.59% 14.79% 19.38%
6 50 52 2.48% 23.97% 28.93%
7 100 104 1.34% 33.89% 39.25%
8 190 208 0.72% 37.37% 50.39%
9 400 425 0.39% 56.17% 65.93%
10 825 850 0.21% 73.94% 79.21%
11 1500 1500 0.11% 70.77% 70.77%
12 3000 3000 0.06% 84.44% 84.44%

MGM Premium Payout Card

 

The next table analyzes the MGM pick-12 Premium Payout parlay card. This bet is characterized as paying a "bad beat" win of 50 if the player picks 11 out of 12 correctly. The following table analyzes the bet for a random picker. The lower right cell shows a return of 87.89%.

12-Leg Premium Payout — Random Picker

Correct Picks Pays Probability Return
12 3,000 0.000244 0.732422
11 50 0.002930 0.146484
10 or less 0 0.996826 0.000000
Total   1.000000 0.878906
 

The next table shows the return for the pick-12 Premium Payout for a "half point" picker, who always chooses lines a half point above the market line. The lower right cell shows a return of 164%!

Premium Payout Pick 12 — Half Point Picker Picker

Correct Picks Pays Probability Return
12 3,000 0.000465 1.394713
11 50 0.004996 0.249788
10 or less 0 0.994539 0.000000
Total   1.000000 1.644501

Caesars Super Parlay Special

The next table analyzes the Caesars pick-12 Super Parlay Special. This bet is characterized as paying 1,400 for catching all 12 picks, 60 for 11, and 6 for 10. The following table analyzes the bet for a random picker. The lower right cell shows a return of 61.43%. Compared to the 95% return for the MGM's Premium Payout card, under the same assumptions, the odds are not as good.

Super Parlay Special — Random Picker

Correct Picks Pays Probability Return
12 1,400 0.000244 0.341797
11 60 0.002930 0.175781
10 6 0.016113 0.096680
9 or less 0 0.980713 0.000000
Total   1.000000 0.614258

The next table shows the return for the Super Parlay Special where the bettor always gets a half point in his favor. The lower right cell shows a return of 109.02%. Compared to the 176% return for the MGM's Premium Payout card, under the same assumptions, the odds are not as good.

Super Parlay Special — Half Point Picker

Correct Picks Pays Probability Return
12 1,400 0.000461 0.645619
11 60 0.004963 0.297754
10 6 0.024476 0.146858
9 or less 0 0.970100 0.000000
Total   1.000000 1.090231

Ties Win Parlay Cards

Normally on a parlay card, if there is a tie, then it "reduces," as if the bettor never picked that game to begin with. For example, if a pick-5 card resulted in four wins and one tie, then the bettor would be paid based on a pick-4 card. However, as the name states, a tie counts as a win on a "ties win" card. To make things even better, most spreads are integers, making ties more likely.

The only point spread you generally don't see is 3 and -3, because 15.7% of games in the NFL end in a margin of victory of 3. It would be too advantageous to give those ties to the player, so they move those spreads to 2.5 or 3.5.

 

 

My advice on ties win parlay cards is as follows:

  1. Pick spreads on a "key number." In other words, a frequent margin of victory. The table below shows the top ten.
  2. Pick games where there is at least a half point difference between the market "off the board" line and the line on the card.
 

Margin of Victory

Rank Margin of Victory Frequency
1 3 15.7%
2 7 9.3%
3 10 6.2%
4 6 5.4%
5 4 5.0%
6 14 4.8%
7 1 4.0%
8 17 3.6%
9 2 3.5%
10 5 3.2%

For example, suppose the Chargers are a 9.5-point underdog off the board but 10 points on the card. This is like getting 10.5 points on the Chargers, or a full extra point, because of the ties win rule.

The following table shows what ties win parlay cards pay at various sports book groups around Las Vegas. Wins in this table are on a "for one" basis. In other words, the original wager is not returned, even if the bet wins. It is hard to choose the best group, because it depends on the number of picks made, as follows:

  • Pick 3: Lots pay 6.
  • Pick 4: Treasure Island at 11.
  • Pick 5: Lots at 20.
  • Pick 6: Golden Nugget and South Point at 40.
  • Pick 7: Lots at 75.
  • Pick 8: Lots at 150.
  • Pick 9: LVH at 305.
  • Pick 10: Jerry's Nugget at 625.
 

Ties Win Parlay Card — Pay Table

Sportsbook Legs
Pick 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Aliante 6 10 20 40 75 150 305 600 1200 2000
Boyd 6 10 20 36 75 150 275 600    
Golden Nugget 6 10 20 40 75 150 275 600    
Jerry's Nugget 6 10 20 39 70 150 302 625    
LVH 6 10 18 33 62 120 305 600 1150  
South Point 6 10 20 40 75 150 275 600    
Stations 6 10 20 35 65 130 250 600    
Stratosphere 6 10 20 36 75 140 275 600    
Treasure Island 6 11 20 38 75 140 300 600    

To estimate the value of Ties Win cards, I had to make assumptions about how the sports books created the lines on the card. As mentioned, they like to give the player the chance at a tie, by making integer spreads, except +/- 3. Where the point spread is +/- 3 off the board, I moved it to +/- 2.5. Otherwise, if the point spread is already an integer off the board, I assume it will stay the same on the card. If it ends in 1/2, I move it a half point to an integer spread. Based on these line-making assumptions, I show the overall probability of a tie is 2.89%. Otherwise, the probability of win or loss is equal at 48.56% each. So, the random picker can expect to get 51.44% of picks correct.

The following table shows the expected return for a random picker based on the best available win for each number of picks. As you can see, the house edge ranges from 20% to 31%, depending on the number of picks.

Ties Win Parlay Card — Random Picker

Pick Pays Prob. Win Exp. Value
3 6 0.136149 -0.183104
4 11 0.070041 -0.229546
5 20 0.036032 -0.279353
6 40 0.018537 -0.258535
7 75 0.009536 -0.284795
8 150 0.004906 -0.264133
9 305 0.002524 -0.230256
10 625 0.001298 -0.188544
11 1,150 0.000668 -0.231894
12 2,000 0.000344 -0.312786

It should be noted that sometimes the card makers don't like point spreads of +/- 7 either, which would lower the probability of winning to under 51.44%.

The next table shows the expected return for the bettor who makes picks only where the point spread on the card is a half point better than the "off the board" spread. Such a bettor can expect to win 53.18% of picks. Again, this table assumes the maximum available win. The return column shows a range of a house edge of 14.9% to a player edge of 13.1%.

Ties Win Parlay Card — Extra Half Point Picker

Pick Pays Prob. Win Exp. Value
3 6 0.150409 -0.097545
4 11 0.079989 -0.120117
5 20 0.042539 -0.149214
6 40 0.022623 -0.095084
7 75 0.012031 -0.097665
8 150 0.006398 -0.040255
9 305 0.003403 0.037821
10 625 0.001810 0.130994
11 1,150 0.000962 0.106716
12 2,000 0.000512 0.023591

Ties Lose Parlay Cards

 

Ties lose parlay cards are a horse of a different color. Unlike other parlay and teaser cards, ties lose parlay cards are usually based on just one or two games. During the regular NFL season, they are often based on the Sunday and Monday night games. As well as picking against the side and total, there are a host of props the player may choose from. An example of a selection likely to fall on a tie is over or under two interceptions. The following is my advice for playing ties lose parlay cards, if you must:

  • Don't pick any event that is likely to end in a tie. For example, over/under three field goals.
  • Don't pick any event that has more than two possible outcomes. For example, first score to be a touchdown pass, touchdown run, field goal, or any other score.
  • Look for correlations. For example, the final score of one team to be odd and the other team to be even. 55.9% of games end in an odd total, which must be the sum of one odd and one even number.
 

Here are some miscellaneous statistics, which may or may not come in handy, based on the 2000 to 2012 seasons. An exception is the average number of field goals, which is based on the 2000 to 2010 seasons, for lack of data on the other years. Of course, you should also consider the dynamics of the actual game you are betting on. A couple things this table should show is the danger of betting over/under two interceptions or three field goals, since those are very close to the averages, and thus have a high probability of falling on a tie.

NFL Averages

Event Average
First quarter points 8.54
Second quarter points 13.16
Third quarter points 8.94
Fourth quarter points 12.05
Interceptions 2.03
Penalties 12.46
Fumbles 2.97
Fumbles lost 1.43
Punts 9.65
Field goals 2.98
First downs 37.46
Rushing touchdowns 1.42
Passing touchdowns 2.82

As with any kind of parlay or teaser card, always shop around for the best pays. The following table shows what various sports book groups pay on ties lose cards. Wins in this table are on a "for one" basis. In other words, the original wager is not returned, even if the bet wins.

Ties Lose Parlay Card — Pay Table

Sportsbook Legs
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Boyd   11 20 40 80 160 350 800
Golden Nugget 6 11 20 40 80 150 300 800
MGM 6 11 20 40 80 150 300 600/20
South Point 6 11 20 40 80 160 350 700
Stations 6 12 23 45 80 160 320 800

The next table shows the expected return for each number of picks, assuming the best available pay table and a 50% chance of winning each pick. The right column shows the house advantage ranges from 21.9 to 37.5% (ouch!).

Ties Lose Parlay Card — Random Picker

Pick Pays Prob. Win Exp. Value
3 6 0.125000 -0.250000
4 12 0.062500 -0.250000
5 23 0.031250 -0.281250
6 45 0.015625 -0.296875
7 80 0.007813 -0.375000
8 160 0.003906 -0.375000
9 350 0.001953 -0.316406
10 800 0.000977 -0.218750

The following table shows the possible outcomes for the MGM pick-10 ties lose card, assuming a 50% chance of each event winning. The lower right cell show an expected return of 78%.

MGM Pick 10 Ties Lose — 50% Picker

Correct Picks Pays Probability Return
10 600 0.000977 0.585938
9 20 0.009766 0.195313
8 or less 0 0.989258 0.000000
Total   1.000000 0.781250

Hopefully, I have convinced you that ties lose parlay cards are a terrible value. There is an exception, though. Sometimes parlay cards for the Super Bowl have soft lines. However, it is beyond the scope of this page to explain how to spot them.

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