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Betting the NFL
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Introduction
This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.
Unless otherwise stated, the source of this data is every NFL game played from the 2006 season through and including week 1 of the 2018 season. This is a total of 3,220 games. The data is available for free at Australia Sports Betting.
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Cleveland Browns Kansas City Chiefs |
|
-105 (4)
|
-110 (43)
|
Chiefs are strong at home; Mahomes’ passing is key. Browns’ defense must disrupt timing. Watch for turnovers; they could swing momentum. Betting lines might favor Chiefs. Monitor injury reports. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
New York Giants Baltimore Ravens |
900
|
|
⇗5.00 |
Giants' defense strong; Ravens' offense dynamic. Giants' recent form inconsistent. Ravens favored due to superior roster and consistent performance. Close match expected. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Tennessee Titans Cincinnati Bengals |
|
-110 (5)
|
|
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Key players, injury updates, and recent performance trends are crucial for informed betting. Consider defensive strength and offensive strategies for a comprehensive evaluation. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Houston Texans Miami Dolphins |
|
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Analyzing performance trends: Dolphins projected to dominate Texans. Key variables include passing efficiency and defensive fortitude. Consider Miami's home advantage and Texans' recent struggles against strong defenses. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets |
|
100 (3)
|
-110 (40.5)
|
Jacksonville Jaguars show strong offensive play. New York Jets rely on defense. Expect a close game with potential turnovers. Key players: Lawrence and Wilson. Watch the weather impact. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
New Orleans Saints Washington Commanders |
|
|
|
The Saints' strong defense faces the Commanders' dynamic offense. Key matchup: Saints' pass rush vs. Commanders' O-line. Turnovers could decide the tight contest. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Carolina Panthers Dallas Cowboys |
|
|
-110 (43)
|
Cowboys favored with strong offense. Panthers face challenges in defense. Key players to watch: Dak Prescott (DAL), Sam Darnold (CAR). Turnover battle crucial. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills |
-140
|
-110 (-2.5)
|
-110 (54.5)
|
The Buffalo Bills are favorites against the Detroit Lions. Consider player performance trends and injury reports before betting. Home field could provide an advantage, but Bills' offense is strong. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-110 (-5.5)
|
-110 (43)
|
The Eagles have a strong offense, while the Steelers' defense is robust. Key players will impact the game's outcome. Consider both teams' recent performances and injury reports. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Los Angeles Chargers Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
100 (-3)
|
-110 (45.5)
|
The Chargers' strong offense faces Buccaneers' tough defense. Watch Herbert’s performance against Buccaneers' secondary. Key: turnovers and QB pressure. Both teams need a win for playoff contention. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Denver Broncos Indianapolis Colts |
|
|
|
Expect a close game; Broncos' defensive strength will test Colts' offense. Key players include Russell Wilson for Broncos and Jonathan Taylor for Colts. Weather may influence the game's dynamics. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Arizona Cardinals New England Patriots |
⇗5.00 |
-105 (-6)
|
-110 (46)
|
Consider Patriots' strong defense against Cardinals' inconsistent offense. Weather conditions may favor New England. Key injuries on both sides could impact game outcome. Monitor betting lines closely. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 15th 8pm
Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers |
|
|
|
Seattle's strong defense meets Green Bay's potent offense. Key players could make or break the game, so watch starters' fitness. Weather conditions might also influence play outcomes significantly. |
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Mon Dec 16th 7pm
Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears |
|
100 (-7)
|
-110 (43.5)
|
Minnesota Vikings' strong offense faces Bears' defensive challenges. Watch for turnovers; both teams struggle under pressure. Key players could swing odds. Weather may impact game dynamics. Underdogs have potential. |
|
Mon Dec 16th 7pm
Las Vegas Raiders Atlanta Falcons |
|
-110 (4)
|
|
The Raiders' strong offense meets the Falcons' shaky defense. Expect a high-scoring game with potential turnovers. Betting on the over could be wise. |
|
Thu Dec 19th 8pm
Los Angeles Chargers Denver Broncos |
|
|
|
Chargers strong passing game vs Broncos solid defense. Broncos struggle in offense, home advantage. Watch Herbert's performance, injuries impact both teams. Consider Chargers' recent form, betting within responsible limits. |
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Sat Dec 21st 1pm
Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans |
|
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs possess a stronger roster and home advantage, making them favorites against Houston Texans, despite Texans' potential for an upset. |
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Sat Dec 21st 4pm
Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-105 (-5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Ravens and Steelers rivalry is intense. Ravens’ offense is strong but inconsistent. Steelers' defense is tough. Key factors: turnovers and home-field advantage. Both teams have passionate fanbases. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Expect an intense matchup. Panthers aim to dominate with McCaffrey, while Cardinals rely on Murray's agility. Defensive strategies will be crucial. Watch for turnovers impacting game flow. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Atlanta Falcons New York Giants |
-240
|
-110 (-8.5)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
The Falcons' offense is strong, but their defense struggles. Giants show solid defense, but lack offensive consistency. Look for turnovers and QB performance to be key factors. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Buffalo Bills New England Patriots |
-430
|
-110 (-13)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Buffalo's strong offense faces Patriots' resilient defense. Key players: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs vs. Mac Jones, Matthew Judon. Consider home advantage, weather, and recent form for placing bets. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Chicago Bears Detroit Lions |
|
|
-110 (48)
|
The Bears' defense struggles against high-powered offenses. Lions have a potent passing game, making them favored. Weather conditions could influence play. Monitor any injuries for impact on betting lines. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans |
-205
|
-105 (-4.5)
|
-110 (42)
|
Colts and Titans have a strong rivalry. Colts excel in passing; Titans dominate the ground game. Key matchup: Colts’ defense vs. Derrick Henry. Weather could impact passing plays. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
New York Jets Los Angeles Rams |
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Jets rely on solid defense; Rams boast a stronger offense. Watch for quarterback matchups. Possible low-scoring game. Special teams could decide. Bet cautiously. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Washington Commanders Philadelphia Eagles |
158
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (48)
|
Eagles are favored with strong offense. Commanders need defensive strategy. Key player performance could shift odds. Watch for turnovers and special teams impact. Betting line fluctuates with injuries. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns |
|
-105 (-6)
|
|
Consider the Bengals' strong offense against the Browns' defense. Check injury reports. Weather could affect gameplay. Recent head-to-head statistics and home-field advantage are pivotal for betting decisions. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Seattle Seahawks Minnesota Vikings |
|
-110 (1.5)
|
|
Seahawks' strong offense clashes with Vikings' tight defense. Key players: Wilson, Cook. Home advantage favors Vikings. Monitor weather conditions. Bet cautiously, as both teams show unpredictable performances. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Las Vegas Raiders Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
-110 (-1)
|
-110 (39.5)
|
Las Vegas Raiders boast a strong offense while Jaguars' defense shows resilience. Monitor line movement and injury reports. Raiders slightly favored, expect a close game with potential high scoring. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Miami Dolphins San Francisco 49ers |
|
-110 (-1.5)
|
-110 (49)
|
The Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers face off in a close matchup. Evaluate recent performance, injuries, and weather conditions before placing your bets. Home advantage favors the 49ers. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 22nd 8pm
Dallas Cowboys Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Cowboys' strong offense faces Buccaneers' solid defense. Key players and turnovers will likely decide the game's outcome. Watch for momentum shifts in crucial moments. |
|
Mon Dec 23rd 8pm
Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints |
-240
|
|
-110 (42)
|
Green Bay Packers may face challenges against New Orleans Saints due to strong Saints defense. Key players to watch: Aaron Rodgers and Alvin Kamara. Weather could impact play strategies. |
Point Spread Bets
I admit "point spread bet" is not a common term in sports betting, but I'm trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a "straight bet" but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.
The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns.
Point Spread Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All home | 1,484 | 1,680 | 56 | 46.90% | 1.26% | -2.46 | -10.28% |
| All away | 1,680 | 1,484 | 56 | 53.10% | 1.26% | 2.46 | 1.34% |
| All favorite | 1,488 | 1,617 | 56 | 47.92% | 1.27% | -1.64 | -8.36% |
| All underdog | 1,617 | 1,488 | 56 | 52.08% | 1.27% | 1.64 | -0.57% |
| Home underdog | 492 | 520 | 20 | 48.62% | 2.22% | -0.62 | -7.05% |
| Home favorite | 968 | 1,125 | 36 | 46.25% | 1.55% | -2.43 | -11.51% |
| Away underdog | 1,125 | 968 | 36 | 53.75% | 1.55% | 2.43 | 2.57% |
| Away favorite | 520 | 492 | 20 | 51.38% | 2.22% | 0.62 | -1.87% |
| Home pick | 24 | 35 | 0 | 40.68% | 9.21% | -1.01 | -22.34% |
| Away pick | 35 | 24 | 0 | 59.32% | 9.21% | 1.01 | 13.25% |
| All | 3,164 | 3,164 | 112 | 50.00% | 0.89% | 0.00 | -4.47% |
Explanation of column headings:
- Bet: Type of bet
- Wins: Number of wins against point spread
- Losses: Number of losses against point spread
- Pushes: Number of pushes against point spread
- Win Rate: Ratio of wins to bets resolved
- Std. Dev.: One standard deviation in the mean of the win rate, assuming every bet had a theoretical chance of winning of 50%.
- N.S.D: Number of standard deviations that the actual results differ from an expected win rate of 50%.
- Return: Ratio of money won (lost = negative) to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10.
Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the results of under and over bets. It shows both had nearly a 50% chance of winning. In face, over 3,220 games the over won just two more times than the under. I thought under bets would have performed better, but I've been wrong before.
Under and Over Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 1,586 | 1,576 | 58 | 50.16% | 1.26% | 0.13 | -4.17% |
| Under | 1,576 | 1,586 | 58 | 49.84% | 1.26% | -0.13 | -4.76% |
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Money Lines
The following brief table shows the result of money line bets.
Money Line Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Return |
|---|---|
| Underdog | -3.91% |
| Favorite | -6.24% |
| All | -5.08% |
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning for underdogs of 1 to 14.5 points. Obviously, the probability of the favorite winning would be 100% less the probability of the underdog winning. The estimated probability of winning uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.
Probability of Winning by Point Spread in the NFL
| Spread | Games | Wins | Actual Probability |
Estimated Probability |
Fair Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 69 | 49.6% | 46.4% | 115 |
| 1.5 | 88 | 43 | 48.9% | 44.6% | 124 |
| 2 | 126 | 51 | 40.5% | 42.9% | 133 |
| 2.5 | 224 | 98 | 43.8% | 41.1% | 143 |
| 3 | 517 | 235 | 45.5% | 39.4% | 154 |
| 3.5 | 279 | 107 | 38.4% | 37.7% | 165 |
| 4 | 157 | 59 | 37.6% | 36.1% | 177 |
| 4.5 | 128 | 47 | 36.7% | 34.4% | 191 |
| 5 | 89 | 23 | 25.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
| 5.5 | 118 | 38 | 32.2% | 31.3% | 220 |
| 6 | 133 | 45 | 33.8% | 29.7% | 236 |
| 6.5 | 147 | 42 | 28.6% | 28.3% | 254 |
| 7 | 220 | 51 | 23.2% | 26.8% | 273 |
| 7.5 | 146 | 36 | 24.7% | 25.5% | 293 |
| 8 | 65 | 14 | 21.5% | 24.1% | 315 |
| 8.5 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 22.8% | 338 |
| 9 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 21.6% | 363 |
| 9.5 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 20.4% | 390 |
| 10 | 104 | 19 | 18.3% | 19.3% | 419 |
| 10.5 | 61 | 15 | 24.6% | 18.2% | 450 |
| 11 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 17.1% | 483 |
| 11.5 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 16.1% | 519 |
| 12 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 15.2% | 558 |
| 12.5 | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 14.3% | 599 |
| 13 | 34 | 6 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 644 |
| 13.5 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 12.6% | 692 |
| 14 | 36 | 3 | 8.3% | 11.9% | 743 |
| 14.5 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11.1% | 798 |
If you want to estimate the probability of winning of an underdog of more than 14.5 points, the formula is e^(-0.14324*s)/(1+e^(-0.14324*s)), where s is the point spread. To convert any probability under 50% to a fair money line, the formula is 100*(1-p)/p, where p is the probability of winning. To convert any probability over 50% to a fair money line, the formula is -100*p/(1-p).
Parlays
Here is my quick advice on parlays:
- Betting off the board, do not pick more than three teams or totals at -110 odds.
- On parlay cards, take advantage of stale lines on the cards by comparing them to the current odds. It is especially beneficial in football to capture a movement off of 3 points, for example a team is +2.5 on the board and +3 on the card.
I have much more information about parlays in my page on Parlay Bets in the NFL.
Teasers
Here is my quick advice on teasers:
- If you bet off the board, the best odds are at Jerry's Nugget.
- Try to cross the 3- and 7-point margin of victories with the extra points.
- Teaser cards are a sucker bet.
- If you must bet a teaser card, I recommend the the Ties Win Teaser Card at any Caesars sports book.
- On teaser cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the "off the board" point spread.
I have lots more information about teasers in my page on Teaser Bets in the NFL.
Buying Half a Point off the Spread
Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories (MOV) in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 14.5% of the time, and seven 9.2%, as the following table shows.
Margin of Victory in the NFL
| MOV | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.7% |
| 2 | 3.8% |
| 3 | 14.5% |
| 4 | 5.2% |
| 5 | 3.4% |
| 6 | 6.2% |
| 7 | 9.2% |
| 8 | 3.6% |
| 9 | 1.7% |
| 10 | 5.6% |
| 11 | 2.5% |
| 12 | 1.5% |
| 13 | 2.9% |
| 14 | 4.8% |
| 15 | 1.5% |
| 16 | 2.1% |
| 17 | 3.1% |
| 18 | 2.3% |
| 19 | 1.1% |
| 20 | 2.4% |
| 21 | 3.2% |
| 22+ | 15.7% |
| Total | 100.0% |
The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for extra half point, to equal the expected loss of 4.54% laying 11 to win 10. The bottom line is you should definitely buy the half point off of three, if you can, and it is marginally good off of seven. Anything else and it is a bad value.
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
| Spread | Fair Price |
|---|---|
| 3 | 128.1 |
| 4 | 116.9 |
| 7 | 121.9 |
| 10 | 117.9 |
| 14 | 117.0 |
Buying Half a Point off the Total
The overall fair number of basis points to pay for a half point off the total is 8.12. In other words, you should be indifferent to laying 11 to win 10 and laying 118.12 to win 10 with an extra half point. The following table shows my suggested fair price to pay to capture totals from 30 to 60. By "capture" I mean turn a push into a win or a loss into a push. If you have to lay 10 basis points for the half point, my table shows that it is never a good value, although sometimes it is close. An explanation of the column headings follows the table.
Buying a Half Point off the Over/Under in the NFL
| Total Points |
Num. in Sample |
Probability | Fair Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 89 | 0.027640 | 6.58 |
| 31 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 32 | 42 | 0.013043 | 3.06 |
| 33 | 102 | 0.031677 | 7.58 |
| 34 | 83 | 0.025776 | 6.13 |
| 35 | 52 | 0.016149 | 3.80 |
| 36 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 37 | 120 | 0.037267 | 8.98 |
| 38 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 39 | 62 | 0.019255 | 4.54 |
| 40 | 105 | 0.032609 | 7.81 |
| 41 | 121 | 0.037578 | 9.05 |
| 42 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 43 | 126 | 0.039130 | 9.45 |
| 44 | 123 | 0.038199 | 9.21 |
| 45 | 82 | 0.025466 | 6.05 |
| 46 | 64 | 0.019876 | 4.69 |
| 47 | 113 | 0.035093 | 8.43 |
| 48 | 98 | 0.030435 | 7.27 |
| 49 | 61 | 0.018944 | 4.47 |
| 50 | 81 | 0.025155 | 5.98 |
| 51 | 119 | 0.036957 | 8.90 |
| 52 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 53 | 51 | 0.015839 | 3.72 |
| 54 | 66 | 0.020497 | 4.84 |
| 55 | 85 | 0.026398 | 6.28 |
| 56 | 25 | 0.007764 | 1.81 |
| 57 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 58 | 58 | 0.018012 | 4.24 |
| 59 | 40 | 0.012422 | 2.91 |
| 60 | 18 | 0.005590 | 1.30 |
Key to column headings:
- Total Points = Total point scored in game
- Num. in Sample = Number of times this total appeared in a sample of 3,220 games.
- Fair Price = My fair number of basis points to pay to capture this number (after a lot of math)
My page on alternate point spreads shows what it is worth to buy or sell up to seven points off the spread. That page has not been updated with the latest data yet.
Example
Assume the over/under on a game is exactly 43 points. My table shows the fair number of basis points to pay to capture the 43 is 9.45. This means you should be indifferent to laying 110 on the under 43 or over 43 to laying 119.45 on the under 43.5 or over 42.5.
Internal Links
- Alternate point spread calculator.
- Parlay calculator — What a parlay pay composed of events of miscellaneous odds should pay.
- Proposition bet calculator — Fair line for lots of common prop bets, given the point spread and total.
- NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020 — Historical scoring data from 2000 to 2020.
- Super Bowl proposition bets — Repository of Super Bowl proposition bet sheets from Las Vegas