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Betting the NFL
Introduction
This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.
Unless otherwise stated, the source of this data is every NFL game played from the 2006 season through and including week 1 of the 2018 season. This is a total of 3,220 games. The data is available for free at Australia Sports Betting.
Compare Online NFL Odds
![nfl_icon.png](https://wizardofodds.com/media/modules/odds_sport/logo_images/6039/nfl_icon.png)
Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total |
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Thu Sep 5th 8pm | Kansas City Chiefs - baltimore-ravens |
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Fri Sep 6th 7pm | Philadelphia Eagles - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Chicago Bears - tennessee-titans |
![]() New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry. |
![]() New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit: $10. Plus, get a $25 Casino Bonus on the house. The casino Bonus received from this Promotion is subject to a wagering requirement. Wagering requirement contributions are based on the specific casino game being wagered on. Please see the Wagering Requirements section for more details. |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - washington-commanders |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Buffalo Bills - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - pittsburgh-steelers |
![]() New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit $55. |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - houston-texans |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - jacksonville-jaguars |
![]() New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit $55. |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | New York Giants - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Sep 8th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Sep 8th 4pm | Cleveland Browns - dallas-cowboys |
![]() New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit: $10. Plus, get a $25 Casino Bonus on the house. The casino Bonus received from this Promotion is subject to a wagering requirement. Wagering requirement contributions are based on the specific casino game being wagered on. Please see the Wagering Requirements section for more details. |
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Sun Sep 8th 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - denver-broncos |
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Sun Sep 8th 7pm | Detroit Lions - los-angeles-rams |
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Mon Sep 9th 8pm | San Francisco 49ers - new-york-jets |
![]() New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit $55. |
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Thu Sep 12th 8pm | Miami Dolphins - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Baltimore Ravens - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Dallas Cowboys - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Detroit Lions - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | New England Patriots - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Washington Commanders - new-york-giants |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - new-york-jets |
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Sun Sep 15th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Sep 15th 4pm | Kansas City Chiefs - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Sep 15th 4pm | Denver Broncos - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Sep 15th 8pm | Houston Texans - chicago-bears |
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Mon Sep 16th 8pm | Philadelphia Eagles - atlanta-falcons |
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Thu Sep 19th 8pm | New York Jets - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - chicago-bears |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Cleveland Browns - new-york-giants |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - denver-broncos |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Tennessee Titans - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - houston-texans |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | New Orleans Saints - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - detroit-lions |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Sep 22nd 8pm | Atlanta Falcons - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Mon Sep 23rd 7pm | Buffalo Bills - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Mon Sep 23rd 8pm | Cincinnati Bengals - washington-commanders |
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Thu Sep 26th 8pm | New York Giants - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Chicago Bears - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | New York Jets - denver-broncos |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Houston Texans - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Sep 29th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - washington-commanders |
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Sun Sep 29th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Sep 29th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Sep 29th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Sep 29th 8pm | Baltimore Ravens - buffalo-bills |
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Mon Sep 30th 7pm | Miami Dolphins - tennessee-titans |
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Mon Sep 30th 8pm | Detroit Lions - seattle-seahawks |
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Thu Oct 3rd 8pm | Atlanta Falcons - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Oct 6th 8am | Minnesota Vikings - new-york-jets |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Houston Texans - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Chicago Bears - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Washington Commanders - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | New England Patriots - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Oct 6th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Oct 6th 4pm | Denver Broncos - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Oct 6th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Oct 6th 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - new-york-giants |
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Sun Oct 6th 8pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - dallas-cowboys |
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Mon Oct 7th 8pm | Kansas City Chiefs - new-orleans-saints |
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Thu Oct 10th 8pm | Seattle Seahawks - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Oct 13th 8am | Chicago Bears - jacksonville-jaguars |
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![]() New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $50. |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Baltimore Ravens - washington-commanders |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Philadelphia Eagles - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | New England Patriots - houston-texans |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Denver Broncos - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - detroit-lions |
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Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Carolina Panthers - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Oct 13th 8pm | New York Giants - cincinnati-bengals |
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Mon Oct 14th 8pm | New York Jets - buffalo-bills |
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Thu Oct 17th 8pm | New Orleans Saints - denver-broncos |
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Sun Oct 20th 8am | Jacksonville Jaguars - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Buffalo Bills - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Cleveland Browns - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - detroit-lions |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - houston-texans |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | New York Giants - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Oct 20th 3pm | San Francisco 49ers - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Oct 20th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Oct 20th 4pm | Washington Commanders - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Oct 20th 8pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-jets |
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Mon Oct 21st 8pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - baltimore-ravens |
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Mon Oct 21st 9pm | Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-chargers |
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Thu Oct 24th 8pm | Los Angeles Rams - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Cleveland Browns - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Detroit Lions - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Washington Commanders - chicago-bears |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Houston Texans - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | New England Patriots - new-york-jets |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Denver Broncos - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Cincinnati Bengals - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Oct 27th 8pm | San Francisco 49ers - dallas-cowboys |
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Mon Oct 28th 8pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-giants |
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Thu Oct 31st 8pm | New York Jets - houston-texans |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Baltimore Ravens - denver-broncos |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Buffalo Bills - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Carolina Panthers - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Cleveland Browns - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Tennessee Titans - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | New York Giants - washington-commanders |
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Sun Nov 3rd 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - chicago-bears |
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Sun Nov 3rd 4pm | Green Bay Packers - detroit-lions |
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Sun Nov 3rd 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Nov 3rd 8pm | Philadelphia Eagles - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Mon Nov 4th 8pm | Kansas City Chiefs - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Thu Nov 7th 8pm | Baltimore Ravens - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Nov 10th 7am | Carolina Panthers - new-york-giants |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Chicago Bears - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Kansas City Chiefs - denver-broncos |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Washington Commanders - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Nov 10th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Nov 10th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - new-york-jets |
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Sun Nov 10th 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Nov 10th 8pm | Houston Texans - detroit-lions |
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Mon Nov 11th 8pm | Los Angeles Rams - miami-dolphins |
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Thu Nov 14th 8pm | Philadelphia Eagles - washington-commanders |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Chicago Bears - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Detroit Lions - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | New England Patriots - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Nov 17th 4pm | Denver Broncos - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Nov 17th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Nov 17th 4pm | Buffalo Bills - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Nov 17th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Nov 17th 8pm | New York Jets - indianapolis-colts |
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Mon Nov 18th 8pm | Dallas Cowboys - houston-texans |
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Thu Nov 21st 8pm | Cleveland Browns - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Chicago Bears - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Washington Commanders - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - detroit-lions |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Houston Texans - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | New York Giants - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - denver-broncos |
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Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Green Bay Packers - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Nov 24th 8pm | Los Angeles Rams - philadelphia-eagles |
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Mon Nov 25th 8pm | Los Angeles Chargers - baltimore-ravens |
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Thu Nov 28th 12pm | Detroit Lions - chicago-bears |
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Thu Nov 28th 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - new-york-giants |
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Thu Nov 28th 8pm | Green Bay Packers - miami-dolphins |
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Fri Nov 29th 3pm | Kansas City Chiefs - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - houston-texans |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | New England Patriots - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | New York Jets - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Washington Commanders - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Dec 1st 4pm | Carolina Panthers - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Dec 1st 4pm | New Orleans Saints - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Dec 1st 4pm | Baltimore Ravens - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Dec 1st 8pm | Buffalo Bills - san-francisco-49ers |
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Mon Dec 2nd 7pm | Denver Broncos - cleveland-browns |
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Thu Dec 5th 8pm | Detroit Lions - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Philadelphia Eagles - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - new-york-jets |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | New York Giants - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Dec 8th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Dec 8th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Dec 8th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - chicago-bears |
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Sun Dec 8th 8pm | Kansas City Chiefs - los-angeles-chargers |
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Mon Dec 9th 8pm | Dallas Cowboys - cincinnati-bengals |
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Thu Dec 12th 8pm | San Francisco 49ers - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Cleveland Browns - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | New York Giants - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Houston Texans - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - new-york-jets |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - washington-commanders |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Detroit Lions - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Denver Broncos - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Philadelphia Eagles - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Dec 15th 8pm | Seattle Seahawks - green-bay-packers |
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Mon Dec 16th 7pm | Minnesota Vikings - chicago-bears |
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Mon Dec 16th 7pm | Las Vegas Raiders - atlanta-falcons |
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Thu Dec 19th 8pm | Cincinnati Bengals - cleveland-browns |
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Sat Dec 21st 1pm | Kansas City Chiefs - houston-texans |
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Sat Dec 21st 4pm | Baltimore Ravens - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Carolina Panthers - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - new-york-giants |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Buffalo Bills - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Chicago Bears - detroit-lions |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | New York Jets - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Washington Commanders - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - denver-broncos |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm | Miami Dolphins - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Dec 22nd 8pm | Dallas Cowboys - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Mon Dec 23rd 8pm | Green Bay Packers - new-orleans-saints |
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Wed Dec 25th 4pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Wed Dec 25th 8pm | Houston Texans - baltimore-ravens |
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Thu Dec 26th 8pm | Chicago Bears - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Buffalo Bills - new-york-jets |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Washington Commanders - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - denver-broncos |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | New York Giants - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | New England Patriots - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Dec 29th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Dec 29th 4pm | Philadelphia Eagles - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Dec 29th 8pm | Cleveland Browns - miami-dolphins |
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Mon Dec 30th 8pm | San Francisco 49ers - detroit-lions |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Baltimore Ravens - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | New England Patriots - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - chicago-bears |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Dallas Cowboys - washington-commanders |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Detroit Lions - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - houston-texans |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | New York Jets - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Philadelphia Eagles - new-york-giants |
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Sun Jan 5th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Jan 5th 4pm | Denver Broncos - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Jan 5th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Jan 5th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - seattle-seahawks |
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![nfl_preseason.png](https://wizardofodds.com/media/modules/odds_sport/logo_images/6052/nfl_preseason.png)
Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total |
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Thu Aug 1st 8pm | Chicago Bears - houston-texans |
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![]() New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $50. |
Point Spread Bets
I admit "point spread bet" is not a common term in sports betting, but I'm trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a "straight bet" but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.
The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns.
Point Spread Bets in the NFL
Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All home | 1,484 | 1,680 | 56 | 46.90% | 1.26% | -2.46 | -10.28% |
All away | 1,680 | 1,484 | 56 | 53.10% | 1.26% | 2.46 | 1.34% |
All favorite | 1,488 | 1,617 | 56 | 47.92% | 1.27% | -1.64 | -8.36% |
All underdog | 1,617 | 1,488 | 56 | 52.08% | 1.27% | 1.64 | -0.57% |
Home underdog | 492 | 520 | 20 | 48.62% | 2.22% | -0.62 | -7.05% |
Home favorite | 968 | 1,125 | 36 | 46.25% | 1.55% | -2.43 | -11.51% |
Away underdog | 1,125 | 968 | 36 | 53.75% | 1.55% | 2.43 | 2.57% |
Away favorite | 520 | 492 | 20 | 51.38% | 2.22% | 0.62 | -1.87% |
Home pick | 24 | 35 | 0 | 40.68% | 9.21% | -1.01 | -22.34% |
Away pick | 35 | 24 | 0 | 59.32% | 9.21% | 1.01 | 13.25% |
All | 3,164 | 3,164 | 112 | 50.00% | 0.89% | 0.00 | -4.47% |
Explanation of column headings:
- Bet: Type of bet
- Wins: Number of wins against point spread
- Losses: Number of losses against point spread
- Pushes: Number of pushes against point spread
- Win Rate: Ratio of wins to bets resolved
- Std. Dev.: One standard deviation in the mean of the win rate, assuming every bet had a theoretical chance of winning of 50%.
- N.S.D: Number of standard deviations that the actual results differ from an expected win rate of 50%.
- Return: Ratio of money won (lost = negative) to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10.
Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the results of under and over bets. It shows both had nearly a 50% chance of winning. In face, over 3,220 games the over won just two more times than the under. I thought under bets would have performed better, but I've been wrong before.
Under and Over Bets in the NFL
Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over | 1,586 | 1,576 | 58 | 50.16% | 1.26% | 0.13 | -4.17% |
Under | 1,576 | 1,586 | 58 | 49.84% | 1.26% | -0.13 | -4.76% |
Money Lines
The following brief table shows the result of money line bets.
Money Line Bets in the NFL
Bet | Return |
---|---|
Underdog | -3.91% |
Favorite | -6.24% |
All | -5.08% |
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning for underdogs of 1 to 14.5 points. Obviously, the probability of the favorite winning would be 100% less the probability of the underdog winning. The estimated probability of winning uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.
Probability of Winning by Point Spread in the NFL
Spread | Games | Wins | Actual Probability |
Estimated Probability |
Fair Line |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 139 | 69 | 49.6% | 46.4% | 115 |
1.5 | 88 | 43 | 48.9% | 44.6% | 124 |
2 | 126 | 51 | 40.5% | 42.9% | 133 |
2.5 | 224 | 98 | 43.8% | 41.1% | 143 |
3 | 517 | 235 | 45.5% | 39.4% | 154 |
3.5 | 279 | 107 | 38.4% | 37.7% | 165 |
4 | 157 | 59 | 37.6% | 36.1% | 177 |
4.5 | 128 | 47 | 36.7% | 34.4% | 191 |
5 | 89 | 23 | 25.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
5.5 | 118 | 38 | 32.2% | 31.3% | 220 |
6 | 133 | 45 | 33.8% | 29.7% | 236 |
6.5 | 147 | 42 | 28.6% | 28.3% | 254 |
7 | 220 | 51 | 23.2% | 26.8% | 273 |
7.5 | 146 | 36 | 24.7% | 25.5% | 293 |
8 | 65 | 14 | 21.5% | 24.1% | 315 |
8.5 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 22.8% | 338 |
9 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 21.6% | 363 |
9.5 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 20.4% | 390 |
10 | 104 | 19 | 18.3% | 19.3% | 419 |
10.5 | 61 | 15 | 24.6% | 18.2% | 450 |
11 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 17.1% | 483 |
11.5 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 16.1% | 519 |
12 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 15.2% | 558 |
12.5 | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 14.3% | 599 |
13 | 34 | 6 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 644 |
13.5 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 12.6% | 692 |
14 | 36 | 3 | 8.3% | 11.9% | 743 |
14.5 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11.1% | 798 |
If you want to estimate the probability of winning of an underdog of more than 14.5 points, the formula is e^(-0.14324*s)/(1+e^(-0.14324*s)), where s is the point spread. To convert any probability under 50% to a fair money line, the formula is 100*(1-p)/p, where p is the probability of winning. To convert any probability over 50% to a fair money line, the formula is -100*p/(1-p).
Parlays
Here is my quick advice on parlays:
- Betting off the board, do not pick more than three teams or totals at -110 odds.
- On parlay cards, take advantage of stale lines on the cards by comparing them to the current odds. It is especially beneficial in football to capture a movement off of 3 points, for example a team is +2.5 on the board and +3 on the card.
I have much more information about parlays in my page on Parlay Bets in the NFL.
Teasers
Here is my quick advice on teasers:
- If you bet off the board, the best odds are at Jerry's Nugget.
- Try to cross the 3- and 7-point margin of victories with the extra points.
- Teaser cards are a sucker bet.
- If you must bet a teaser card, I recommend the the Ties Win Teaser Card at any Caesars sports book.
- On teaser cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the "off the board" point spread.
I have lots more information about teasers in my page on Teaser Bets in the NFL.
Buying Half a Point off the Spread
Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories (MOV) in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 14.5% of the time, and seven 9.2%, as the following table shows.
Margin of Victory in the NFL
MOV | Probability |
---|---|
0 | 0.2% |
1 | 3.7% |
2 | 3.8% |
3 | 14.5% |
4 | 5.2% |
5 | 3.4% |
6 | 6.2% |
7 | 9.2% |
8 | 3.6% |
9 | 1.7% |
10 | 5.6% |
11 | 2.5% |
12 | 1.5% |
13 | 2.9% |
14 | 4.8% |
15 | 1.5% |
16 | 2.1% |
17 | 3.1% |
18 | 2.3% |
19 | 1.1% |
20 | 2.4% |
21 | 3.2% |
22+ | 15.7% |
Total | 100.0% |
The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for extra half point, to equal the expected loss of 4.54% laying 11 to win 10. The bottom line is you should definitely buy the half point off of three, if you can, and it is marginally good off of seven. Anything else and it is a bad value.
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
Spread | Fair Price |
---|---|
3 | 128.1 |
4 | 116.9 |
7 | 121.9 |
10 | 117.9 |
14 | 117.0 |
Buying Half a Point off the Total
The overall fair number of basis points to pay for a half point off the total is 8.12. In other words, you should be indifferent to laying 11 to win 10 and laying 118.12 to win 10 with an extra half point. The following table shows my suggested fair price to pay to capture totals from 30 to 60. By "capture" I mean turn a push into a win or a loss into a push. If you have to lay 10 basis points for the half point, my table shows that it is never a good value, although sometimes it is close. An explanation of the column headings follows the table.
Buying a Half Point off the Over/Under in the NFL
Total Points |
Num. in Sample |
Probability | Fair Price |
---|---|---|---|
30 | 89 | 0.027640 | 6.58 |
31 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
32 | 42 | 0.013043 | 3.06 |
33 | 102 | 0.031677 | 7.58 |
34 | 83 | 0.025776 | 6.13 |
35 | 52 | 0.016149 | 3.80 |
36 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
37 | 120 | 0.037267 | 8.98 |
38 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
39 | 62 | 0.019255 | 4.54 |
40 | 105 | 0.032609 | 7.81 |
41 | 121 | 0.037578 | 9.05 |
42 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
43 | 126 | 0.039130 | 9.45 |
44 | 123 | 0.038199 | 9.21 |
45 | 82 | 0.025466 | 6.05 |
46 | 64 | 0.019876 | 4.69 |
47 | 113 | 0.035093 | 8.43 |
48 | 98 | 0.030435 | 7.27 |
49 | 61 | 0.018944 | 4.47 |
50 | 81 | 0.025155 | 5.98 |
51 | 119 | 0.036957 | 8.90 |
52 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
53 | 51 | 0.015839 | 3.72 |
54 | 66 | 0.020497 | 4.84 |
55 | 85 | 0.026398 | 6.28 |
56 | 25 | 0.007764 | 1.81 |
57 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
58 | 58 | 0.018012 | 4.24 |
59 | 40 | 0.012422 | 2.91 |
60 | 18 | 0.005590 | 1.30 |
Key to column headings:
- Total Points = Total point scored in game
- Num. in Sample = Number of times this total appeared in a sample of 3,220 games.
- Fair Price = My fair number of basis points to pay to capture this number (after a lot of math)
My page on alternate point spreads shows what it is worth to buy or sell up to seven points off the spread. That page has not been updated with the latest data yet.
Example
Assume the over/under on a game is exactly 43 points. My table shows the fair number of basis points to pay to capture the 43 is 9.45. This means you should be indifferent to laying 110 on the under 43 or over 43 to laying 119.45 on the under 43.5 or over 42.5.
Internal Links
- Alternate point spread calculator.
- Parlay calculator — What a parlay pay composed of events of miscellaneous odds should pay.
- Proposition bet calculator — Fair line for lots of common prop bets, given the point spread and total.
- NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020 — Historical scoring data from 2000 to 2020.
- Super Bowl proposition bets — Repository of Super Bowl proposition bet sheets from Las Vegas
Written by: Michael Shackleford