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Pleaser bets in the NFL
Disclaimer
The analysis on this page is based on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. I started with 1994 because that was the year the two-point conversion rule was introduced. Besides sample size variation, I also had to make assumptions about how point spreads were created on pleaser cards. The reader should assume there is some margin of error on any statistic on the probability of winning and expected return anywhere on this page. At the end of the day, sports are ultimately played by human beings, not statistics, so always take any predictions of future results, based on past results, with a grain of salt.
Introduction
For those who know what a teaser bet is, a pleaser (also known as a reverse teaser) works the same way, except the bettor gets negative points. Obviously, that means a lower probability of winning each leg, so the bettor is compensated with a higher pay table.
For those who don't know what a teaser is, with a parlay, teaser, or pleaser bet, the bettor makes at least two selections against a list of games. The player must win every selection to win the bet. The more selections made, the lower the probability of winning, but the higher the win if every selection does win. Rules vary on what happens in the event of a tie. With a parlay the bettor goes against a point spread with no extra points. With a teaser the bettor gets extra points, but stands to win less. With a pleaser, the bettor gives up points but stands to win more.
Compare Online NFL Odds
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Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total |
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Thu Sep 5th 8pm | Kansas City Chiefs - baltimore-ravens |
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Fri Sep 6th 7pm | Philadelphia Eagles - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Chicago Bears - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - washington-commanders |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Buffalo Bills - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - houston-texans |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Sep 8th 1pm | New York Giants - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Sep 8th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Sep 8th 4pm | Cleveland Browns - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Sep 8th 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - denver-broncos |
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Sun Sep 8th 7pm | Detroit Lions - los-angeles-rams |
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Mon Sep 9th 8pm | San Francisco 49ers - new-york-jets |
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Thu Sep 12th 8pm | Miami Dolphins - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Baltimore Ravens - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Dallas Cowboys - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Detroit Lions - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | New England Patriots - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Washington Commanders - new-york-giants |
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Sun Sep 15th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - new-york-jets |
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Sun Sep 15th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Sep 15th 4pm | Kansas City Chiefs - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Sep 15th 4pm | Denver Broncos - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Sep 15th 8pm | Houston Texans - chicago-bears |
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Mon Sep 16th 8pm | Philadelphia Eagles - atlanta-falcons |
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Thu Sep 19th 8pm | New York Jets - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - chicago-bears |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Cleveland Browns - new-york-giants |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - denver-broncos |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Tennessee Titans - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - houston-texans |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Sep 22nd 1pm | New Orleans Saints - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - detroit-lions |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Sep 22nd 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Sep 22nd 8pm | Atlanta Falcons - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Mon Sep 23rd 7pm | Buffalo Bills - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Mon Sep 23rd 8pm | Cincinnati Bengals - washington-commanders |
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Thu Sep 26th 8pm | New York Giants - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Chicago Bears - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | New York Jets - denver-broncos |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Houston Texans - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Sep 29th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Sep 29th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - washington-commanders |
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Sun Sep 29th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Sep 29th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Sep 29th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Sep 29th 8pm | Baltimore Ravens - buffalo-bills |
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Mon Sep 30th 7pm | Miami Dolphins - tennessee-titans |
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Mon Sep 30th 8pm | Detroit Lions - seattle-seahawks |
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Thu Oct 3rd 8pm | Atlanta Falcons - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Oct 6th 8am | Minnesota Vikings - new-york-jets |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Houston Texans - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Chicago Bears - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Washington Commanders - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Oct 6th 1pm | New England Patriots - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Oct 6th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Oct 6th 4pm | Denver Broncos - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Oct 6th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Oct 6th 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - new-york-giants |
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Sun Oct 6th 8pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - dallas-cowboys |
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Mon Oct 7th 8pm | Kansas City Chiefs - new-orleans-saints |
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Thu Oct 10th 8pm | Seattle Seahawks - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Oct 13th 8am | Chicago Bears - jacksonville-jaguars |
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![]() New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $50. |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Baltimore Ravens - washington-commanders |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Philadelphia Eagles - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | New England Patriots - houston-texans |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Oct 13th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Denver Broncos - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - detroit-lions |
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Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Carolina Panthers - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Oct 13th 8pm | New York Giants - cincinnati-bengals |
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Mon Oct 14th 8pm | New York Jets - buffalo-bills |
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Thu Oct 17th 8pm | New Orleans Saints - denver-broncos |
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Sun Oct 20th 8am | Jacksonville Jaguars - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Buffalo Bills - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Cleveland Browns - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - detroit-lions |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - houston-texans |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Oct 20th 1pm | New York Giants - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Oct 20th 3pm | San Francisco 49ers - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Oct 20th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Oct 20th 4pm | Washington Commanders - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Oct 20th 8pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-jets |
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Mon Oct 21st 8pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - baltimore-ravens |
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Mon Oct 21st 9pm | Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-chargers |
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Thu Oct 24th 8pm | Los Angeles Rams - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Cleveland Browns - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Detroit Lions - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Washington Commanders - chicago-bears |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | Houston Texans - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Oct 27th 1pm | New England Patriots - new-york-jets |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Denver Broncos - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Cincinnati Bengals - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Oct 27th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Oct 27th 8pm | San Francisco 49ers - dallas-cowboys |
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Mon Oct 28th 8pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-giants |
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Thu Oct 31st 8pm | New York Jets - houston-texans |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Baltimore Ravens - denver-broncos |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Buffalo Bills - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Carolina Panthers - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Cleveland Browns - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | Tennessee Titans - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Nov 3rd 1pm | New York Giants - washington-commanders |
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Sun Nov 3rd 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - chicago-bears |
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Sun Nov 3rd 4pm | Green Bay Packers - detroit-lions |
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Sun Nov 3rd 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Nov 3rd 8pm | Philadelphia Eagles - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Mon Nov 4th 8pm | Kansas City Chiefs - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Thu Nov 7th 8pm | Baltimore Ravens - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Nov 10th 7am | Carolina Panthers - new-york-giants |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Chicago Bears - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Kansas City Chiefs - denver-broncos |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Washington Commanders - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Nov 10th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Nov 10th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Nov 10th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - new-york-jets |
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Sun Nov 10th 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Nov 10th 8pm | Houston Texans - detroit-lions |
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Mon Nov 11th 8pm | Los Angeles Rams - miami-dolphins |
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Thu Nov 14th 8pm | Philadelphia Eagles - washington-commanders |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Chicago Bears - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Detroit Lions - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | New England Patriots - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Nov 17th 4pm | Denver Broncos - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Nov 17th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Nov 17th 4pm | Buffalo Bills - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Nov 17th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Nov 17th 8pm | New York Jets - indianapolis-colts |
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Mon Nov 18th 8pm | Dallas Cowboys - houston-texans |
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Thu Nov 21st 8pm | Cleveland Browns - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Chicago Bears - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Washington Commanders - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - detroit-lions |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Houston Texans - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Nov 24th 1pm | New York Giants - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - denver-broncos |
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Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Green Bay Packers - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Nov 24th 8pm | Los Angeles Rams - philadelphia-eagles |
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Mon Nov 25th 8pm | Los Angeles Chargers - baltimore-ravens |
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Thu Nov 28th 12pm | Detroit Lions - chicago-bears |
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Thu Nov 28th 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - new-york-giants |
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Thu Nov 28th 8pm | Green Bay Packers - miami-dolphins |
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Fri Nov 29th 3pm | Kansas City Chiefs - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - houston-texans |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | New England Patriots - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | New York Jets - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Washington Commanders - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Dec 1st 4pm | Carolina Panthers - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Dec 1st 4pm | New Orleans Saints - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Dec 1st 4pm | Baltimore Ravens - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Dec 1st 8pm | Buffalo Bills - san-francisco-49ers |
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Mon Dec 2nd 7pm | Denver Broncos - cleveland-browns |
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Thu Dec 5th 8pm | Detroit Lions - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Philadelphia Eagles - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - new-york-jets |
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Sun Dec 8th 1pm | New York Giants - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Dec 8th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Dec 8th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Dec 8th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - chicago-bears |
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Sun Dec 8th 8pm | Kansas City Chiefs - los-angeles-chargers |
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Mon Dec 9th 8pm | Dallas Cowboys - cincinnati-bengals |
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Thu Dec 12th 8pm | San Francisco 49ers - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Cleveland Browns - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | New York Giants - baltimore-ravens |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Houston Texans - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - new-york-jets |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - washington-commanders |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Detroit Lions - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Denver Broncos - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm | Philadelphia Eagles - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Dec 15th 8pm | Seattle Seahawks - green-bay-packers |
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Mon Dec 16th 7pm | Minnesota Vikings - chicago-bears |
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Mon Dec 16th 7pm | Las Vegas Raiders - atlanta-falcons |
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Thu Dec 19th 8pm | Cincinnati Bengals - cleveland-browns |
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Sat Dec 21st 1pm | Kansas City Chiefs - houston-texans |
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Sat Dec 21st 4pm | Baltimore Ravens - pittsburgh-steelers |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Carolina Panthers - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - new-york-giants |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Buffalo Bills - new-england-patriots |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Chicago Bears - detroit-lions |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | New York Jets - los-angeles-rams |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm | Washington Commanders - philadelphia-eagles |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - denver-broncos |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm | Miami Dolphins - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Dec 22nd 8pm | Dallas Cowboys - tampa-bay-buccaneers |
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Mon Dec 23rd 8pm | Green Bay Packers - new-orleans-saints |
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Wed Dec 25th 4pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Wed Dec 25th 8pm | Houston Texans - baltimore-ravens |
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Thu Dec 26th 8pm | Chicago Bears - seattle-seahawks |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Buffalo Bills - new-york-jets |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - green-bay-packers |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - tennessee-titans |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - las-vegas-raiders |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Washington Commanders - atlanta-falcons |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - denver-broncos |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | New York Giants - indianapolis-colts |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm | New England Patriots - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Dec 29th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - arizona-cardinals |
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Sun Dec 29th 4pm | Philadelphia Eagles - dallas-cowboys |
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Sun Dec 29th 8pm | Cleveland Browns - miami-dolphins |
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Mon Dec 30th 8pm | San Francisco 49ers - detroit-lions |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - carolina-panthers |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Baltimore Ravens - cleveland-browns |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | New England Patriots - buffalo-bills |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - chicago-bears |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - cincinnati-bengals |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Dallas Cowboys - washington-commanders |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Detroit Lions - minnesota-vikings |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - houston-texans |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - jacksonville-jaguars |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | New York Jets - miami-dolphins |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Tampa Bay Buccaneers - new-orleans-saints |
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Sun Jan 5th 1pm | Philadelphia Eagles - new-york-giants |
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Sun Jan 5th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - san-francisco-49ers |
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Sun Jan 5th 4pm | Denver Broncos - kansas-city-chiefs |
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Sun Jan 5th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - los-angeles-chargers |
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Sun Jan 5th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - seattle-seahawks |
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![nfl_preseason.png](https://wizardofodds.com/media/modules/odds_sport/logo_images/6052/nfl_preseason.png)
Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total |
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Thu Aug 1st 8pm | Chicago Bears - houston-texans |
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![]() New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $50. |
Pleaser bets are apparently not very popular, as evidenced by the fact that only three Vegas sports book families offer pleaser cards, as follows:
- William Hill — 7-point pleaser
- Stratosphere — 7.5-point pleaser
- MGM — 9-point pleaser
I have never heard of an off the board pleaser bet.
Following is my analysis of each one.
7-Point Pleaser
The 7-point pleaser card is available at William Hill sport books and the Aliante only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a "for one" basis), probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 8 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 28.65%.
To following table is based on the William Hill pay table. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 39% to 73%.
7-Point William Hill Pleaser Card — Random Picker
Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
---|---|---|---|
3 | 26 | 0.023508 | -0.388796 |
4 | 80 | 0.006734 | -0.461266 |
5 | 240 | 0.001929 | -0.537016 |
6 | 700 | 0.000553 | -0.613166 |
7 | 2000 | 0.000158 | -0.683388 |
8 | 6000 | 0.000045 | -0.727906 |
To following table is based on the Aliante pay table. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 39% to 73%.
7-Point Aliante Pleaser Card — Random Picker
Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
---|---|---|---|
3 | 23 | 0.023508 | -0.459319 |
4 | 70 | 0.006734 | -0.528608 |
5 | 210 | 0.001929 | -0.594889 |
6 | 600 | 0.000553 | -0.668428 |
7 | 1700 | 0.000158 | -0.730880 |
8 | 5000 | 0.000045 | -0.773255 |
The smart gambler could cut down these house advantages by playing situations where he gives up less than 7 points and/or stays away from giving up key margins of victory. However, the random-picker house edges are so high to begin with that I wouldn't touch this pleaser card, even utilizing everything in my bag of tricks.
7.5-Point Pleaser
The 7.5-point pleaser card is available at the Stratosphere family of sports books only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a "for one" basis), the probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 6 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 27.38%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 64% to 81%.
7.5-Point Stratosphere Pleaser Card — Random Picker
Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
---|---|---|---|
3 | 17.5 | 0.020534 | -0.640647 |
4 | 50 | 0.005623 | -0.718844 |
5 | 170 | 0.001540 | -0.738230 |
6 | 450 | 0.000422 | -0.810251 |
As with the 7-point pleaser, we could chip away at these enormous house advantages via gaining extra half points by carefully comparing the spreads on the card against those on the board. By waiting as long as possible, the bettor can take advantage of line movements. Even with no line movements, if the point spread ended in a half to begin with, then the card maker would have to move the point spreads on each side by 7 and 8 points to keep the pleaser spreads ending in one half. The bettor will improve his odds giving up 7 points only, compared to 7.5. However, it is all a losing battle against house advantages starting at 64%.
9-Point Pleaser
The 9-point pleaser card is available at MGM sports book only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a "for one" basis), the probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 8 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 24.17%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 75% to 94%.
9-Point MGM Pleaser Card — Random Picker
Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
---|---|---|---|
3 | 17.5 | 0.014123 | -0.752850 |
4 | 55 | 0.003414 | -0.812244 |
5 | 180 | 0.000825 | -0.851471 |
6 | 500 | 0.000199 | -0.900272 |
7 | 1500 | 0.000048 | -0.927682 |
8 | 5000 | 0.000012 | -0.941732 |
A 94% house edge? Are you f#*&ing kidding me! Fair odds for a 8-leg MGM pleaser, for a random picker, would be 85,810, and they are playing 5,000 only. Lottery tickets are an outstanding value compared to this.
For a second, I thought this was the worst casino bet I've ever seen. However, that honor still goes to the Harrah's Las Vegas keno room, where the house edge on their "pick-10 stimulus ticket" is 96.63%.
Summary
Let me make this loud and clear. Pleasers are a sucker bet! If you must bet one, the best odds are on the pick-3 pleaser at William Hill sports books, with a 39% house edge. As mentioned before, you can cut down on the house edge by betting as late as possible to give up as few points as possible, compared to the market lines on the board. Even if you could cut down the house edge in half, it would still be an awful bet.
Forget the pleaser cards. Your odds are a lot better with ordinary parlay cards.
Internal Links
- Parlay Bets in the NFL
- Teaser Bets in the NFL
- Betting the NFL
- Las Vegas Sports Book Groups
- Miscellaneous topics in betting the NFL
External Links
- Las Vegas Sports Betting Survey — What each sports book family pays on parlays and teasers.
Written by: Michael Shackleford