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Pleaser bets in the NFL
Disclaimer
The analysis on this page is based on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. I started with 1994 because that was the year the two-point conversion rule was introduced. Besides sample size variation, I also had to make assumptions about how point spreads were created on pleaser cards. The reader should assume there is some margin of error on any statistic on the probability of winning and expected return anywhere on this page. At the end of the day, sports are ultimately played by human beings, not statistics, so always take any predictions of future results, based on past results, with a grain of salt.
Introduction
For those who know what a teaser bet is, a pleaser (also known as a reverse teaser) works the same way, except the bettor gets negative points. Obviously, that means a lower probability of winning each leg, so the bettor is compensated with a higher pay table.
For those who don't know what a teaser is, with a parlay, teaser, or pleaser bet, the bettor makes at least two selections against a list of games. The player must win every selection to win the bet. The more selections made, the lower the probability of winning, but the higher the win if every selection does win. Rules vary on what happens in the event of a tie. With a parlay the bettor goes against a point spread with no extra points. With a teaser the bettor gets extra points, but stands to win less. With a pleaser, the bettor gives up points but stands to win more.
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Cleveland Browns Kansas City Chiefs |
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-105 (4)
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-110 (43)
|
Chiefs are strong at home; Mahomes’ passing is key. Browns’ defense must disrupt timing. Watch for turnovers; they could swing momentum. Betting lines might favor Chiefs. Monitor injury reports. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
New York Giants Baltimore Ravens |
900
|
|
-110 (42.5)
|
Giants' defense strong; Ravens' offense dynamic. Giants' recent form inconsistent. Ravens favored due to superior roster and consistent performance. Close match expected. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Tennessee Titans Cincinnati Bengals |
|
-110 (5)
|
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Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Key players, injury updates, and recent performance trends are crucial for informed betting. Consider defensive strength and offensive strategies for a comprehensive evaluation. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Houston Texans Miami Dolphins |
|
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-110 (46.5)
|
Analyzing performance trends: Dolphins projected to dominate Texans. Key variables include passing efficiency and defensive fortitude. Consider Miami's home advantage and Texans' recent struggles against strong defenses. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets |
|
100 (3)
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-110 (40.5)
|
Jacksonville Jaguars show strong offensive play. New York Jets rely on defense. Expect a close game with potential turnovers. Key players: Lawrence and Wilson. Watch the weather impact. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
New Orleans Saints Washington Commanders |
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The Saints' strong defense faces the Commanders' dynamic offense. Key matchup: Saints' pass rush vs. Commanders' O-line. Turnovers could decide the tight contest. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Carolina Panthers Dallas Cowboys |
|
|
-110 (43)
|
Cowboys favored with strong offense. Panthers face challenges in defense. Key players to watch: Dak Prescott (DAL), Sam Darnold (CAR). Turnover battle crucial. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills |
-140
|
-110 (-2.5)
|
-110 (54.5)
|
The Buffalo Bills are favorites against the Detroit Lions. Consider player performance trends and injury reports before betting. Home field could provide an advantage, but Bills' offense is strong. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers |
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-110 (-5.5)
|
-110 (43)
|
The Eagles have a strong offense, while the Steelers' defense is robust. Key players will impact the game's outcome. Consider both teams' recent performances and injury reports. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Los Angeles Chargers Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
100 (-3)
|
-110 (45.5)
|
The Chargers' strong offense faces Buccaneers' tough defense. Watch Herbert’s performance against Buccaneers' secondary. Key: turnovers and QB pressure. Both teams need a win for playoff contention. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Denver Broncos Indianapolis Colts |
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Expect a close game; Broncos' defensive strength will test Colts' offense. Key players include Russell Wilson for Broncos and Jonathan Taylor for Colts. Weather may influence the game's dynamics. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Arizona Cardinals New England Patriots |
|
|
-110 (46)
|
Consider Patriots' strong defense against Cardinals' inconsistent offense. Weather conditions may favor New England. Key injuries on both sides could impact game outcome. Monitor betting lines closely. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 15th 8pm
Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers |
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Seattle's strong defense meets Green Bay's potent offense. Key players could make or break the game, so watch starters' fitness. Weather conditions might also influence play outcomes significantly. |
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Mon Dec 16th 7pm
Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears |
|
100 (-7)
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-110 (43.5)
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Minnesota Vikings' strong offense faces Bears' defensive challenges. Watch for turnovers; both teams struggle under pressure. Key players could swing odds. Weather may impact game dynamics. Underdogs have potential. |
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Mon Dec 16th 7pm
Las Vegas Raiders Atlanta Falcons |
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-110 (4)
|
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The Raiders' strong offense meets the Falcons' shaky defense. Expect a high-scoring game with potential turnovers. Betting on the over could be wise. |
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Thu Dec 19th 8pm
Los Angeles Chargers Denver Broncos |
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Chargers strong passing game vs Broncos solid defense. Broncos struggle in offense, home advantage. Watch Herbert's performance, injuries impact both teams. Consider Chargers' recent form, betting within responsible limits. |
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Sat Dec 21st 1pm
Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans |
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Kansas City Chiefs possess a stronger roster and home advantage, making them favorites against Houston Texans, despite Texans' potential for an upset. |
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Sat Dec 21st 4pm
Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-105 (-5)
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-110 (46.5)
|
Ravens and Steelers rivalry is intense. Ravens’ offense is strong but inconsistent. Steelers' defense is tough. Key factors: turnovers and home-field advantage. Both teams have passionate fanbases. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals |
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-110 (3.5)
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-110 (46.5)
|
Expect an intense matchup. Panthers aim to dominate with McCaffrey, while Cardinals rely on Murray's agility. Defensive strategies will be crucial. Watch for turnovers impacting game flow. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Atlanta Falcons New York Giants |
-240
|
-110 (-8.5)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
The Falcons' offense is strong, but their defense struggles. Giants show solid defense, but lack offensive consistency. Look for turnovers and QB performance to be key factors. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Buffalo Bills New England Patriots |
-430
|
-110 (-13)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Buffalo's strong offense faces Patriots' resilient defense. Key players: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs vs. Mac Jones, Matthew Judon. Consider home advantage, weather, and recent form for placing bets. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Chicago Bears Detroit Lions |
|
|
-110 (48)
|
The Bears' defense struggles against high-powered offenses. Lions have a potent passing game, making them favored. Weather conditions could influence play. Monitor any injuries for impact on betting lines. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans |
-205
|
-105 (-4.5)
|
-110 (42)
|
Colts and Titans have a strong rivalry. Colts excel in passing; Titans dominate the ground game. Key matchup: Colts’ defense vs. Derrick Henry. Weather could impact passing plays. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
New York Jets Los Angeles Rams |
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Jets rely on solid defense; Rams boast a stronger offense. Watch for quarterback matchups. Possible low-scoring game. Special teams could decide. Bet cautiously. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Washington Commanders Philadelphia Eagles |
158
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (48)
|
Eagles are favored with strong offense. Commanders need defensive strategy. Key player performance could shift odds. Watch for turnovers and special teams impact. Betting line fluctuates with injuries. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns |
|
-105 (-6)
|
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Consider the Bengals' strong offense against the Browns' defense. Check injury reports. Weather could affect gameplay. Recent head-to-head statistics and home-field advantage are pivotal for betting decisions. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Seattle Seahawks Minnesota Vikings |
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-110 (1.5)
|
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Seahawks' strong offense clashes with Vikings' tight defense. Key players: Wilson, Cook. Home advantage favors Vikings. Monitor weather conditions. Bet cautiously, as both teams show unpredictable performances. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Las Vegas Raiders Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
-110 (-1)
|
-110 (39.5)
|
Las Vegas Raiders boast a strong offense while Jaguars' defense shows resilience. Monitor line movement and injury reports. Raiders slightly favored, expect a close game with potential high scoring. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Miami Dolphins San Francisco 49ers |
|
-110 (-1.5)
|
-110 (49)
|
The Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers face off in a close matchup. Evaluate recent performance, injuries, and weather conditions before placing your bets. Home advantage favors the 49ers. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 22nd 8pm
Dallas Cowboys Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Cowboys' strong offense faces Buccaneers' solid defense. Key players and turnovers will likely decide the game's outcome. Watch for momentum shifts in crucial moments. |
|
Mon Dec 23rd 8pm
Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints |
-240
|
|
-110 (42)
|
Green Bay Packers may face challenges against New Orleans Saints due to strong Saints defense. Key players to watch: Aaron Rodgers and Alvin Kamara. Weather could impact play strategies. |
Pleaser bets are apparently not very popular, as evidenced by the fact that only three Vegas sports book families offer pleaser cards, as follows:
- William Hill — 7-point pleaser
- Stratosphere — 7.5-point pleaser
- MGM — 9-point pleaser
I have never heard of an off the board pleaser bet.
Following is my analysis of each one.
7-Point Pleaser
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The 7-point pleaser card is available at William Hill sport books and the Aliante only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a "for one" basis), probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 8 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 28.65%.
To following table is based on the William Hill pay table. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 39% to 73%.
7-Point William Hill Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 26 | 0.023508 | -0.388796 |
| 4 | 80 | 0.006734 | -0.461266 |
| 5 | 240 | 0.001929 | -0.537016 |
| 6 | 700 | 0.000553 | -0.613166 |
| 7 | 2000 | 0.000158 | -0.683388 |
| 8 | 6000 | 0.000045 | -0.727906 |
To following table is based on the Aliante pay table. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 39% to 73%.
7-Point Aliante Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 23 | 0.023508 | -0.459319 |
| 4 | 70 | 0.006734 | -0.528608 |
| 5 | 210 | 0.001929 | -0.594889 |
| 6 | 600 | 0.000553 | -0.668428 |
| 7 | 1700 | 0.000158 | -0.730880 |
| 8 | 5000 | 0.000045 | -0.773255 |
The smart gambler could cut down these house advantages by playing situations where he gives up less than 7 points and/or stays away from giving up key margins of victory. However, the random-picker house edges are so high to begin with that I wouldn't touch this pleaser card, even utilizing everything in my bag of tricks.
7.5-Point Pleaser
 |
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The 7.5-point pleaser card is available at the Stratosphere family of sports books only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a "for one" basis), the probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 6 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 27.38%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 64% to 81%.
7.5-Point Stratosphere Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 17.5 | 0.020534 | -0.640647 |
| 4 | 50 | 0.005623 | -0.718844 |
| 5 | 170 | 0.001540 | -0.738230 |
| 6 | 450 | 0.000422 | -0.810251 |
As with the 7-point pleaser, we could chip away at these enormous house advantages via gaining extra half points by carefully comparing the spreads on the card against those on the board. By waiting as long as possible, the bettor can take advantage of line movements. Even with no line movements, if the point spread ended in a half to begin with, then the card maker would have to move the point spreads on each side by 7 and 8 points to keep the pleaser spreads ending in one half. The bettor will improve his odds giving up 7 points only, compared to 7.5. However, it is all a losing battle against house advantages starting at 64%.
9-Point Pleaser
 |
 |
The 9-point pleaser card is available at MGM sports book only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a "for one" basis), the probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 8 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 24.17%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 75% to 94%.
9-Point MGM Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 17.5 | 0.014123 | -0.752850 |
| 4 | 55 | 0.003414 | -0.812244 |
| 5 | 180 | 0.000825 | -0.851471 |
| 6 | 500 | 0.000199 | -0.900272 |
| 7 | 1500 | 0.000048 | -0.927682 |
| 8 | 5000 | 0.000012 | -0.941732 |
A 94% house edge? Are you f#*&ing kidding me! Fair odds for a 8-leg MGM pleaser, for a random picker, would be 85,810, and they are playing 5,000 only. Lottery tickets are an outstanding value compared to this.
For a second, I thought this was the worst casino bet I've ever seen. However, that honor still goes to the Harrah's Las Vegas keno room, where the house edge on their "pick-10 stimulus ticket" is 96.63%.
Summary
Let me make this loud and clear. Pleasers are a sucker bet! If you must bet one, the best odds are on the pick-3 pleaser at William Hill sports books, with a 39% house edge. As mentioned before, you can cut down on the house edge by betting as late as possible to give up as few points as possible, compared to the market lines on the board. Even if you could cut down the house edge in half, it would still be an awful bet.
Forget the pleaser cards. Your odds are a lot better with ordinary parlay cards.
Internal Links
- Parlay Bets in the NFL
- Teaser Bets in the NFL
- Betting the NFL
- Las Vegas Sports Book Groups
- Miscellaneous topics in betting the NFL
External Links
- Las Vegas Sports Betting Survey — What each sports book family pays on parlays and teasers.