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Summary of NFL games from 1983 to 2003
Introduction
Unless otherwise noted, tables in this appendix are based on the 1983 to 2003 NFL seasons. In some cases, Super Bowls are not included, because those tables are cut by home and visiting team, and Super Bowls are played in a neutral field. The tables were created using Mr. NFL, to be particular the $99 Access database.
Season Totals
The following table shows total home and away points going back to 1983. The right column shows the average home team win. The lower right cell shows that home teams score 2.94 more points, on average.
Total Points in the NFL
Year | Away Points | Home Points | Total Points | Average Points | Average Home MOV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 4840 | 5354 | 233 | 43.75 | 2.21 |
1984 | 4629 | 5227 | 233 | 42.30 | 2.57 |
1985 | 4430 | 5533 | 233 | 42.76 | 4.73 |
1986 | 4452 | 5110 | 233 | 41.04 | 2.82 |
1987 | 4561 | 4958 | 219 | 43.47 | 1.81 |
1988 | 4359 | 5042 | 233 | 40.35 | 2.93 |
1989 | 4453 | 5209 | 233 | 41.47 | 3.24 |
1990 | 4257 | 5195 | 235 | 40.22 | 3.99 |
1991 | 4043 | 4888 | 235 | 38.00 | 3.60 |
1992 | 4083 | 4784 | 235 | 37.73 | 2.98 |
1993 | 4098 | 4811 | 235 | 37.91 | 3.03 |
1994 | 4572 | 5016 | 235 | 40.8 | 1.89 |
1995 | 5167 | 5721 | 251 | 43.38 | 2.21 |
1996 | 4619 | 5673 | 251 | 41.00 | 4.20 |
1997 | 4816 | 5553 | 251 | 41.31 | 2.94 |
1998 | 4901 | 5816 | 251 | 42.70 | 3.65 |
1999 | 4979 | 5817 | 259 | 41.68 | 3.24 |
2000 | 4928 | 5715 | 259 | 41.09 | 3.04 |
2001 | 4969 | 5531 | 259 | 40.54 | 2.17 |
2002 | 5484 | 6173 | 267 | 43.66 | 2.58 |
2003 | 5100 | 6058 | 267 | 41.79 | 3.59 |
2004 | 5308 | 6029 | 265 | 42.78 | 2.72 |
2005 | 4999 | 5948 | 266 | 41.15 | 3.57 |
2006 | 5408 | 5676 | 267 | 41.51 | 1.00 |
Total | 113455 | 130837 | 5905 | 41.37 | 2.94 |
Half Time Totals
Table 2-A — Half Time Averages by Season
Season | Away Half 1 | Home Half 1 | Total Half 1 | Away Half 2 | Home Half 2 | Total Half 2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 9.94 | 11.59 | 21.53 | 10.88 | 11.33 | 22.21 |
1984 | 10 | 11.18 | 21.18 | 9.88 | 11.19 | 21.07 |
1985 | 8.91 | 12.08 | 20.99 | 10.14 | 11.57 | 21.72 |
1986 | 8.96 | 11.5 | 20.46 | 10.14 | 10.36 | 20.5 |
1987 | 10.33 | 11.58 | 21.91 | 10.4 | 11.11 | 21.52 |
1988 | 9.47 | 11.37 | 20.84 | 9.25 | 10.28 | 19.53 |
1989 | 8.84 | 11.44 | 20.28 | 10.12 | 10.97 | 21.09 |
1990 | 9.08 | 11.53 | 20.61 | 9.03 | 10.59 | 19.62 |
1991 | 8.27 | 10.48 | 18.75 | 8.85 | 10.31 | 19.15 |
1992 | 8.05 | 10.37 | 18.42 | 9.32 | 9.85 | 19.18 |
1993 | 8.84 | 10.26 | 19.1 | 8.55 | 10.24 | 18.79 |
1994 | 9.68 | 11.16 | 20.83 | 9.75 | 10.07 | 19.82 |
1995 | 10.54 | 11.94 | 22.48 | 10.02 | 10.87 | 20.9 |
1996 | 9.13 | 12.09 | 21.22 | 9.26 | 10.46 | 19.72 |
1997 | 9.39 | 11.38 | 20.77 | 9.78 | 10.7 | 20.48 |
1998 | 9.67 | 11.9 | 21.57 | 9.8 | 11.29 | 21.09 |
1999 | 9.48 | 12.03 | 21.51 | 9.73 | 10.46 | 20.19 |
2000 | 9.33 | 11.31 | 20.64 | 9.64 | 10.81 | 20.45 |
2001 | 9.48 | 10.54 | 20.02 | 9.72 | 10.82 | 20.53 |
2002 | 10.02 | 11.75 | 21.77 | 10.52 | 11.27 | 21.79 |
2003 | 9.64 | 11.66 | 21.29 | 9.43 | 11 | 20.42 |
Total | 9.39 | 11.39 | 20.78 | 9.72 | 10.74 | 20.47 |
This chart shows that home field advantage is worth 2.01 points in the first half and only 1.02 in the second half. It also shows the first half outscores the second half by 0.32 points, despite overtime counting towards the second half.
Table 2-B shows a distribution of the total points scored in each half for both teams individually. For this chart overtime is counted in the second half.
Table 2-B — Half Time Totals
Half Time Total | Number First Half | Number Second Half | Number Both Halves | Probability First Half | Probability Second Half | Probability Both Halves |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1138 | 1292 | 2430 | 11.19% | 12.7% | 11.94% |
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
2 | 7 | 20 | 27 | 0.07% | 0.2% | 0.13% |
3 | 1222 | 918 | 2140 | 12.01% | 9.02% | 10.52% |
4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
5 | 23 | 17 | 40 | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.2% |
6 | 630 | 520 | 1150 | 6.19% | 5.11% | 5.65% |
7 | 1520 | 1735 | 3255 | 14.94% | 17.06% | 16% |
8 | 11 | 77 | 88 | 0.11% | 0.76% | 0.43% |
9 | 168 | 242 | 410 | 1.65% | 2.38% | 2.02% |
10 | 1475 | 1220 | 2695 | 14.5% | 11.99% | 13.25% |
11 | 8 | 48 | 56 | 0.08% | 0.47% | 0.28% |
12 | 71 | 90 | 161 | 0.7% | 0.88% | 0.79% |
13 | 562 | 571 | 1133 | 5.52% | 5.61% | 5.57% |
14 | 1002 | 1200 | 2202 | 9.85% | 11.8% | 10.82% |
15 | 19 | 77 | 96 | 0.19% | 0.76% | 0.47% |
16 | 138 | 184 | 322 | 1.36% | 1.81% | 1.58% |
17 | 756 | 626 | 1382 | 7.43% | 6.15% | 6.79% |
18 | 12 | 46 | 58 | 0.12% | 0.45% | 0.29% |
19 | 33 | 54 | 87 | 0.32% | 0.53% | 0.43% |
20 | 271 | 247 | 518 | 2.66% | 2.43% | 2.55% |
21 | 405 | 429 | 834 | 3.98% | 4.22% | 4.1% |
22 | 15 | 32 | 47 | 0.15% | 0.31% | 0.23% |
23 | 53 | 58 | 111 | 0.52% | 0.57% | 0.55% |
24 | 267 | 199 | 466 | 2.62% | 1.96% | 2.29% |
25 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.1% |
26 | 13 | 16 | 29 | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.14% |
27 | 79 | 50 | 129 | 0.78% | 0.49% | 0.63% |
28 | 133 | 114 | 247 | 1.31% | 1.12% | 1.21% |
29 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.05% |
30 | 20 | 8 | 28 | 0.2% | 0.08% | 0.14% |
31 | 55 | 29 | 84 | 0.54% | 0.29% | 0.41% |
32 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0% | 0.05% | 0.02% |
33 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.02% |
34 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 0.1% | 0.03% | 0.06% |
35 | 23 | 12 | 35 | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.17% |
36 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% |
37 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% |
38 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.05% |
39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
41 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.02% |
42 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.02% | 0% | 0.01% |
43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
45 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.03% | 0% | 0.01% |
46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
49 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.01% | 0% | 0% |
50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Total | 10172 | 10172 | 20344 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Quarter Time Totals
Table 2-C — Quarter Time Totals
Quarter Time Total | Number Quarter 1 | Number Quarter 2 | Number Quarter 3 | Number Quarter 4 | Number All Quarters | Probability Quarter 1 | Probability Quarter 2 | Probability Quarter 3 | Probability Quarter 4 | Probability All Quarters |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 4342 | 2545 | 4084 | 3074 | 14045 | 42.69% | 25.02% | 40.15% | 30.22% | 34.52% |
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
2 | 29 | 13 | 23 | 45 | 110 | 0.29% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.44% | 0.27% |
3 | 1766 | 1836 | 1633 | 1370 | 6605 | 17.36% | 18.05% | 16.05% | 13.47% | 16.23% |
4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
5 | 11 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 0.11% | 0.18% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.13% |
6 | 222 | 507 | 297 | 492 | 1518 | 2.18% | 4.98% | 2.92% | 4.84% | 3.73% |
7 | 2457 | 2192 | 2550 | 2604 | 9603 | 24.15% | 21.55% | 25.07% | 25.6% | 24.09% |
8 | 1 | 15 | 61 | 127 | 204 | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.6% | 1.25% | 0.5% |
9 | 42 | 105 | 61 | 116 | 324 | 0.41% | 1.03% | 0.6% | 1.14% | 0.8% |
10 | 547 | 1165 | 557 | 864 | 3133 | 5.38% | 11.45% | 5.48% | 8.49% | 7.7% |
11 | 3 | 16 | 24 | 38 | 81 | 0.03% | 0.16% | 0.24% | 0.37% | 0.2% |
12 | 5 | 29 | 10 | 38 | 82 | 0.05% | 0.29% | 0.1% | 0.37% | 0.2% |
13 | 50 | 253 | 78 | 186 | 567 | 0.49% | 2.49% | 0.77% | 1.83% | 1.39% |
14 | 535 | 835 | 568 | 768 | 2706 | 5.26% | 8.21% | 5.58% | 7.55% | 6.65% |
15 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 39 | 71 | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.24% | 0.38% | 0.17% |
16 | 8 | 36 | 13 | 31 | 88 | 0.08% | 0.35% | 0.13% | 0.3% | 0.22% |
17 | 76 | 301 | 82 | 170 | 629 | 0.75% | 2.96% | 0.81% | 1.67% | 1.55% |
18 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.03% |
19 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.03% |
20 | 6 | 46 | 11 | 22 | 85 | 0.06% | 0.45% | 0.11% | 0.22% | 0.21% |
21 | 62 | 174 | 69 | 124 | 429 | 0.61% | 1.71% | 0.68% | 1.22% | 1.05% |
22 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.03% |
23 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.02% |
24 | 3 | 26 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 0.03% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.12% |
25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0% |
26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0.01% | 0% | 0.01% | 0% |
27 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0.02% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
28 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0.04% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0.01% | 0% | 0.01% | 0% |
31 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 0.06% | 0% | 0% | 0.01% |
32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0.01% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0.01% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
10172 | 10172 | 10172 | 10172 | 40688 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Following are the average points scored by each team by quarter:
- Quarter 1: 4.04
- Quarter 2: 6.35
- Quarter 3: 4.39
- Quarter 4: 5.73
Margin of Victory
Table 3 — Margin of Victory
Margin of Victory | Sample Total | Probability |
---|---|---|
0 | 2 | 0.07% |
1 | 97 | 3.58% |
2 | 97 | 3.58% |
3 | 431 | 15.89% |
4 | 127 | 4.68% |
5 | 82 | 3.02% |
6 | 139 | 5.12% |
7 | 259 | 9.55% |
8 | 86 | 3.17% |
9 | 48 | 1.77% |
10 | 163 | 6.01% |
11 | 76 | 2.80% |
12 | 40 | 1.47% |
13 | 97 | 3.58% |
14 | 131 | 4.83% |
15 | 35 | 1.29% |
16 | 40 | 1.47% |
17 | 102 | 3.76% |
18 | 59 | 2.17% |
19 | 35 | 1.29% |
20 | 67 | 2.47% |
21 | 84 | 3.10% |
22 | 27 | 1.00% |
23 | 25 | 0.92% |
24 | 63 | 2.32% |
25 | 32 | 1.18% |
26 | 14 | 0.52% |
27 | 45 | 1.66% |
28 | 46 | 1.70% |
29 | 14 | 0.52% |
30 | 12 | 0.44% |
31 | 33 | 1.22% |
32 | 13 | 0.48% |
33 | 8 | 0.29% |
34 | 16 | 0.59% |
35 | 14 | 0.52% |
36 | 4 | 0.15% |
37 | 10 | 0.37% |
38 | 14 | 0.52% |
39 | 2 | 0.07% |
40 | 2 | 0.07% |
41 | 9 | 0.33% |
42 | 2 | 0.07% |
43 | 1 | 0.04% |
44 | 1 | 0.04% |
45 | 3 | 0.11% |
46 | 2 | 0.07% |
47 | 0 | 0.00% |
48 | 1 | 0.04% |
49 | 2 | 0.07% |
50 | 0 | 0.00% |
51 | 0 | 0.00% |
52 | 0 | 0.00% |
53 | 0 | 0.00% |
54 | 0 | 0.00% |
55 | 0 | 0.00% |
56 | 0 | 0.00% |
57 | 0 | 0.00% |
58 | 0 | 0.00% |
59 | 1 | 0.04% |
Total | 2713 | 100.00% |
What I hope to convey with this table is how uneven the distribution of margin of victories is. For example the margin of victory is 3 or 7 23.42% of the time. This shows why sport books are slow to change a point spread to or away from 3 or 7. It also has practical applications in teasers, parlay cards, and buying a half point. In teasers it is good to cross over the 3 and 7 point margin of victories, for example teasing an 8 point favorite to a 2 point favorite. With parlay cards it is good to cross the 3 or 7 point spreads, for example if a team is -2.5 on a parlay card but moves to -3.5 that shows a lot of action is falling on the favorite and is a good bet at only -2.5. With buying a half point it shows the value of buying off of a spread of 3, for example moving a line from -3 to -2.5, although this is seldom allowed off the 3.
Home Underdogs
Table 4 — Home Underdogs Against Spread
Season | Loss | Win | Tie | Pct win | EV dime line | EV nickel line |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 33 | 31 | 1 | 51.56% | -1.54% | 0.66% |
1984 | 35 | 42 | 2 | 45.45% | -12.89% | -10.97% |
1985 | 42 | 35 | 2 | 54.55% | 4.03% | 6.33% |
1986 | 38 | 36 | 2 | 51.35% | -1.91% | 0.25% |
1987 | 38 | 32 | 0 | 54.29% | 3.64% | 5.99% |
1988 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 50.85% | -2.88% | -0.71% |
1989 | 35 | 36 | 1 | 49.3% | -5.81% | -3.7% |
1990 | 33 | 32 | 3 | 50.77% | -2.94% | -0.84% |
1991 | 42 | 36 | 5 | 53.85% | 2.63% | 4.82% |
1992 | 44 | 39 | 0 | 53.01% | 1.2% | 3.5% |
1993 | 37 | 33 | 4 | 52.86% | 0.86% | 3.02% |
1994 | 30 | 28 | 4 | 51.72% | -1.17% | 0.92% |
1995 | 42 | 37 | 1 | 53.16% | 1.48% | 3.75% |
1996 | 40 | 25 | 0 | 61.54% | 17.48% | 20.15% |
1997 | 36 | 33 | 3 | 52.17% | -0.38% | 1.79% |
1998 | 39 | 33 | 3 | 54.17% | 3.27% | 5.52% |
1999 | 54 | 40 | 5 | 57.45% | 9.18% | 11.54% |
2000 | 39 | 37 | 1 | 51.32% | -2.01% | 0.19% |
2001 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 53.95% | 2.77% | 4.94% |
2002 | 51 | 36 | 1 | 58.62% | 11.78% | 14.29% |
2003 | 37 | 34 | 4 | 52.11% | -0.48% | 1.65% |
2004 | 40 | 40 | 2 | 50% | -4.43% | -2.32% |
2005 | 27 | 48 | 3 | 36% | -30.07% | -28.57% |
2006 | 46 | 32 | 2 | 58.97% | 12.27% | 14.76% |
2007 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 51.14% | -2.32% | -0.16% |
Total | 974 | 882 | 58 | 52.48% | 0.18% | 2.38% |
This table is rather remarkable, in my opinion. It shows that home underdogs have covered the spread 52.48% of the time, not counting ties. Betting home dogs in every game against a dime line would have yielded a 0.18% profit, and 2.38% against a nickel line.
Away Underdogs
Table 5 — Home Favorites Against Spread
Season | Loss | Win | Tie | Pct win | EV dime line | EV nickel line |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 86 | 72 | 7 | 54.43% | 3.75% | 6% |
1984 | 81 | 70 | 1 | 53.64% | 2.39% | 4.7% |
1985 | 63 | 83 | 2 | 43.15% | -17.38% | -15.54% |
1986 | 82 | 70 | 3 | 53.95% | 2.93% | 5.22% |
1987 | 81 | 61 | 3 | 57.04% | 8.71% | 11.13% |
1988 | 85 | 80 | 2 | 51.52% | -1.63% | 0.57% |
1989 | 82 | 71 | 4 | 53.59% | 2.26% | 4.52% |
1990 | 70 | 89 | 2 | 44.03% | -15.75% | -13.87% |
1991 | 70 | 79 | 1 | 46.98% | -10.24% | -8.22% |
1992 | 72 | 72 | 3 | 50% | -4.45% | -2.33% |
1993 | 86 | 70 | 3 | 55.13% | 5.15% | 7.49% |
1994 | 88 | 75 | 4 | 53.99% | 2.99% | 5.28% |
1995 | 85 | 76 | 5 | 52.8% | 0.77% | 2.98% |
1996 | 82 | 95 | 3 | 46.33% | -11.36% | -9.39% |
1997 | 88 | 72 | 12 | 55% | 4.65% | 6.87% |
1998 | 72 | 94 | 8 | 43.37% | -16.41% | -14.61% |
1999 | 83 | 74 | 3 | 52.87% | 0.91% | 3.15% |
2000 | 94 | 79 | 5 | 54.34% | 3.63% | 5.91% |
2001 | 82 | 80 | 9 | 50.62% | -3.19% | -1.11% |
2002 | 90 | 82 | 3 | 52.33% | -0.1% | 2.12% |
2003 | 89 | 93 | 4 | 48.9% | -6.5% | -4.43% |
2004 | 95 | 80 | 5 | 54.29% | 3.54% | 5.82% |
2005 | 80 | 101 | 6 | 44.2% | -15.12% | -13.27% |
2006 | 103 | 77 | 4 | 57.22% | 9.04% | 11.46% |
2007 | 77 | 86 | 9 | 47.24% | -9.3% | -7.36% |
Total | 2066 | 1981 | 111 | 51.05% | -2.47% | -0.32% |
This table shows that home favorites have covered the spread 48.82% of the time, not counting ties. So tables 4 and 5 show that dogs in general have been better bets regardless of whether the dog is at home or away. Betting on visiting dogs against a dime would have resulted in a house edge of 2.23%, and against a nickel line of 0.07%.
Home Team Bets
Home Bets
Season | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct. Home Win | Return (-110) | Return (-105) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 106 | 119 | 8 | 47.11% | -9.72% | -7.75% |
1984 | 106 | 124 | 3 | 46.09% | -11.86% | -9.89% |
1985 | 129 | 100 | 4 | 56.33% | 7.41% | 9.81% |
1986 | 110 | 118 | 5 | 48.25% | -7.73% | -5.68% |
1987 | 100 | 116 | 3 | 46.3% | -11.46% | -9.48% |
1988 | 112 | 118 | 3 | 48.7% | -6.94% | -4.86% |
1989 | 109 | 119 | 5 | 47.81% | -8.54% | -6.52% |
1990 | 124 | 106 | 5 | 53.91% | 2.86% | 5.15% |
1991 | 121 | 108 | 6 | 52.84% | 0.85% | 3.08% |
1992 | 117 | 115 | 3 | 50.43% | -3.68% | -1.52% |
1993 | 109 | 119 | 7 | 47.81% | -8.47% | -6.46% |
1994 | 108 | 119 | 8 | 47.58% | -8.86% | -6.87% |
1995 | 123 | 122 | 6 | 50.2% | -4.06% | -1.94% |
1996 | 139 | 109 | 3 | 56.05% | 6.92% | 9.32% |
1997 | 111 | 125 | 15 | 47.03% | -9.6% | -7.68% |
1998 | 134 | 106 | 11 | 55.83% | 6.3% | 8.61% |
1999 | 128 | 123 | 8 | 51% | -2.56% | -0.42% |
2000 | 120 | 132 | 6 | 47.62% | -8.88% | -6.87% |
2001 | 124 | 119 | 15 | 51.03% | -2.43% | -0.35% |
2002 | 134 | 127 | 4 | 51.34% | -1.96% | 0.23% |
2003 | 132 | 126 | 8 | 51.16% | -2.26% | -0.11% |
2004 | 120 | 139 | 7 | 46.33% | -11.24% | -9.29% |
2005 | 128 | 129 | 9 | 49.81% | -4.75% | -2.67% |
2006 | 125 | 136 | 6 | 47.89% | -8.38% | -6.35% |
2007 | 133 | 122 | 11 | 52.16% | -0.41% | 1.75% |
Total | 3002 | 2996 | 169 | 50.05% | -4.33% | -2.22% |
So this shows that home teams have done slightly better than away teams.
Underdog Bets
Underdog Bets
Season | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct. Underdog Win | Return (-110) | Return (-105) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1983 | 119 | 103 | 8 | 53.6% | 2.25% | 4.49% |
1984 | 116 | 112 | 3 | 50.88% | -2.83% | -0.66% |
1985 | 105 | 118 | 4 | 47.09% | -9.93% | -7.93% |
1986 | 120 | 106 | 5 | 53.1% | 1.34% | 3.59% |
1987 | 119 | 93 | 3 | 56.13% | 7.06% | 9.46% |
1988 | 115 | 109 | 3 | 51.34% | -1.96% | 0.23% |
1989 | 117 | 107 | 5 | 52.23% | -0.28% | 1.93% |
1990 | 103 | 121 | 5 | 45.98% | -11.95% | -10% |
1991 | 112 | 115 | 6 | 49.34% | -5.66% | -3.58% |
1992 | 116 | 111 | 3 | 51.1% | -2.41% | -0.23% |
1993 | 123 | 103 | 7 | 54.42% | 3.78% | 6.07% |
1994 | 118 | 103 | 8 | 53.39% | 1.87% | 4.1% |
1995 | 127 | 113 | 6 | 52.92% | 1% | 3.23% |
1996 | 122 | 120 | 3 | 50.41% | -3.71% | -1.55% |
1997 | 124 | 105 | 15 | 54.15% | 3.17% | 5.37% |
1998 | 111 | 127 | 11 | 46.64% | -10.48% | -8.55% |
1999 | 137 | 114 | 8 | 54.58% | 4.07% | 6.36% |
2000 | 133 | 116 | 6 | 53.41% | 1.93% | 4.18% |
2001 | 123 | 115 | 15 | 51.68% | -1.26% | 0.85% |
2002 | 141 | 118 | 4 | 54.44% | 3.87% | 6.19% |
2003 | 126 | 127 | 8 | 49.8% | -4.77% | -2.68% |
2004 | 135 | 120 | 7 | 52.94% | 1.04% | 3.27% |
2005 | 107 | 149 | 9 | 41.8% | -19.52% | -17.77% |
2006 | 149 | 109 | 6 | 57.75% | 10.02% | 12.46% |
2007 | 122 | 129 | 11 | 48.61% | -6.9% | -4.89% |
Total | 3040 | 2863 | 169 | 51.5% | -1.64% | 0.53% |
This shows that dogs against the spread have done significantly better than favorites over the years. Betting all dogs against a dime line would have resulted in a house edge of 1.07%. Betting all dogs against a nickel line would have resulted in a player advantage of 1.12%.
Terminology
Dime Line: The usual sport book standard requiring a bet of $1.10 to win $1.00
Distribution: Probability that a random variable will equal or less than a given value.
Dog: Short for underdog. A team with a probability of losing greater than 50%.
EV: Expected value. How much per unit bet the player can expect to win.
Nickel Line: When the bettor must bet $1.05 to win $1.00. Some casinos offer a nickel line during a "happy hour" and the Pinnacle off-shore sport book offers a nickel line on the NFL all the time.
Pick: A game with two evenly matched teams with a point spread of 0.
Sources
The value of the home dog bet is also treated in Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong.