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Wizard of Odds on Buying and Selling Points in the NFL

Introduction

This page shows the fair price to buy or sell up to 1.5 points in the NFL, off of both the spread and the total. One practical use for this is when the sports book lets you change the point by up to 1.5 points. Of course, you'll have to lay more if buying points, and get more if selling them. Pinnacle sports book is a good example. You need to log in to do it, but they have a sliding toolbar for the adjusted prices when buying and selling up to 1.5 points. Another practical application is deciding what is the better of two lines. For example, +3 at even money, or +3.5 and -120.

 

The following table shows the fair price you should have to pay for buying and selling up to 1.5 points according to the fair point spread. For example, if a bet is fair at -10 even money, then it would also be fair at -11.5 at +122, -11 at +116, -10.5 at +109, -9.5 at -109, -9 at -111, and -8.5 at -113. It also answers the question posed above, that +3 even money is an equally good bet as +3.5 at -120. It also shows that it is worth paying 10 points for a half point of a point spread off or onto a spread of 7 (for example going from -7.5 to -7, -7 to -6.5, +6.5 to +7, and +7 to +7.5). So if you are going to lay 110 off of a 7 point spread anyway, it is slightly better to lay 120 for the half point, something many sports books allow.

 

 

Buying and Selling Points off of the Spread

Spread Sell 1.5 Sell 1.0 Sell 0.5 Buy 0.5 Buy 1.0 Buy 1.5
-14 117 114 111 -111 -116 -121
-13.5 127 123 112 -105 -109 -111
-13 129 117 105 -105 -106 -108
-12.5 122 109 105 -102 -103 -110
-12 111 106 102 -102 -108 -114
-11.5 108 103 102 -106 -112 -123
-11 109 108 106 -106 -116 -125
-10.5 114 112 106 -109 -118 -121
-10 122 116 109 -109 -111 -113
-9.5 126 118 109 -102 -104 -108
-9 120 111 102 -102 -106 -111
-8.5 113 104 102 -104 -109 -122
-8 108 106 104 -104 -116 -128
-7.5 111 109 104 -111 -123 -133
-7 121 116 111 -111 -119 -127
-6.5 129 123 111 -107 -114 -118
-6 131 120 107 -107 -110 -113
-5.5 128 114 107 -103 -106 -114
-5 117 110 103 -103 -110 -117
-4.5 114 106 103 -107 -114 -141
-4 113 110 107 -107 -131 -154
-3.5 118 114 107 -122 -144 -151
-3 137 129 120 -120 -125 -130
-2.5 156 144 122 -104 -108 -114
-2 150 127 104 -104 -109 -114
-1.5 133 108 104 -105 -109 -110
-1 113 109 105 -105 -105 -105
0 110 105 EV EV -105 -110
1 105 105 105 -105 -109 -113
1.5 110 109 105 -104 -108 -133
2 114 109 104 -104 -127 -150
2.5 114 108 104 -122 -144 -156
3 130 125 120 -120 -129 -137
3.5 151 144 122 -107 -114 -118
4 154 131 107 -107 -110 -113
4.5 141 114 107 -103 -106 -114
5 117 110 103 -103 -110 -117
5.5 114 106 103 -107 -114 -128
6 113 110 107 -107 -120 -131
6.5 118 114 107 -111 -123 -129
7 127 119 111 -111 -116 -121
7.5 133 123 111 -104 -109 -111
8 128 116 104 -104 -106 -108
8.5 122 109 104 -102 -104 -113
9 111 106 102 -102 -111 -120
9.5 108 104 102 -109 -118 -126
10 113 111 109 -109 -116 -122
10.5 121 118 109 -106 -112 -114
11 125 116 106 -106 -108 -109
11.5 123 112 106 -102 -103 -108
12 114 108 102 -102 -106 -111
12.5 110 103 102 -105 -109 -122
13 108 106 105 -105 -117 -129
13.5 111 109 105 -112 -123 -127
14 121 116 111 -111 -114 -117

 

The next table is for buying and selling points off of the total.

 

 

Buying and Selling Points off of the Total

Total Sell 1.5 Sell 1.0 Sell 0.5 Buy 0.5 Buy 1.0 Buy 1.5
33 113 111 108 -108 -116 -123
33.5 120 117 108 -107 -114 -120
34 125 116 107 -107 -112 -116
34.5 124 114 107 -104 -109 -114
35 119 112 104 -104 -109 -113
35.5 117 109 104 -104 -108 -121
36 113 109 104 -104 -116 -127
36.5 113 108 104 -111 -122 -130
37 119 115 110 -110 -117 -124
37.5 127 122 111 -106 -112 -116
38 129 118 106 -106 -110 -113
38.5 125 112 106 -103 -107 -114
39 116 110 103 -103 -110 -116
39.5 113 107 103 -106 -112 -122
40 113 110 106 -106 -115 -124
40.5 116 112 106 -108 -117 -121
41 121 115 108 -108 -112 -115
41.5 125 117 108 -103 -107 -114
42 121 112 103 -103 -110 -117
42.5 116 107 103 -107 -113 -122
43 113 110 106 -106 -115 -123
43.5 117 113 107 -108 -115 -125
44 122 115 107 -107 -116 -124
44.5 124 115 108 -108 -115 -120
45 124 116 107 -107 -112 -116
45.5 125 115 108 -104 -108 -117
46 120 112 104 -104 -113 -121
46.5 116 108 104 -108 -117 -125
47 117 112 108 -108 -115 -122
47.5 122 117 108 -106 -113 -120
48 124 116 106 -106 -113 -119
48.5 123 113 106 -106 -112 -118
49 119 113 106 -106 -112 -118
49.5 119 112 106 -106 -111 -124
50 118 112 106 -106 -117 -128
50.5 118 111 106 -111 -122 -133
51 123 117 110 -110 -120 -129
51.5 129 122 111 -108 -117 -122
52 131 120 108 -108 -113 -118

 

2010 Super Bowl Example

Let's take a look at an example from the Pinnacle Sports adjusted lines on the 2010 Super Bowl. The default lines are Saints +5.5 -106, and Colts -5.5 -102. The following table shows the lines on the Saints. The first column shows the point spreads available. The second column shows the prices Pinnacle offers at each spread. The third column shows the fair line. These can be found from my tables, and then subtracting 2. The reason for subtracting 2 is the Saints are slightly favored at +5.5. The fourth column shows the expected value. Note that none of the adjusted lines are ever a better value than betting the default line of +5.5.

 

 

Pinnacle Sports Lines on Saints

Spread Pinnacle
Line
Fair
Line
Expected
Value
+7 -144 -130 -4.16%
+6.5 -124 -116 -2.93%
+6 -116 -109 -2.86%
+5.5 -106 -102 -1.87%
+5 -103 101 -1.92%
+4.5 100 104 -1.91%
+4 107 112 -2.13%

 

The next table is much the same, but for the Colts. In this case I added 2 points to the fair lines, because the Colts are slight underdogs against a 5.5 spread. This table shows that it is a better value to sell the 1.5 points, and lay 7 points at +128, as opposed to lay 5.5 points at -106. All bets still have a negative expected value. However, if your handicapping skills led you to bet the Colts anyway at -5.5 -102, you would be better off betting them at -7 +128.

 

 

Pinnacle Sports Lines on Colts

Spread Pinnacle
Line
Fair
Line
Expected
Value
-7 128 130 -0.96%
-6.5 110 116 -2.84%
-6 103 109 -2.90%
-5.5 -102 102 -1.96%
-5 -110 -101 -4.09%
-4.5 -114 -104 -4.35%
-4 -122 -112 -4.07%

 

I have looked at the Pinnacle lines on some other NFL games besides the Super Bowl. To make a general statement, I think Pinnacle does a solid job setting their alternative point spreads. Sometimes I perceive a better value than the default point spread selling 1.5 points, but never enough to overcome the juice. My advice is if you are going to bet something on Pinnacle anyway, check to see if you get a better value selling 1.5 points.

Methodology

The above tables were based on NFL seasons from 1983 through 2009. To get at a fair probability of winning buying or selling points off of a given spread or total, I looked at all games within 3 points of the spread or total in question, to see how often the final score would have been affected by buying or selling points.

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Thu Sep 12th 8pm Miami Dolphins - buffalo-bills -108 -110 (-1) -105 (51.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Baltimore Ravens - las-vegas-raiders -340 -109 (-8) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Carolina Panthers - los-angeles-chargers 185 -110 (5) -110 (41.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - cleveland-browns -110 -105 (-1) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Dallas Cowboys - new-orleans-saints -250 -109 (-6) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Detroit Lions - tampa-bay-buccaneers -250 -110 (-6) -109 (49)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Green Bay Packers - indianapolis-colts -192 -108 (-4) -108 (47)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - san-francisco-49ers 235 -109 (6.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm New England Patriots - seattle-seahawks 130 100 (2.5) -110 (42.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Washington Commanders - new-york-giants -135 100 (-3) -107 (43)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Tennessee Titans - new-york-jets 154 -109 (3.5) -109 (44.5)
Sun Sep 15th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-rams 118 -107 (2.5) -108 (48.5)
Sun Sep 15th 4pm Kansas City Chiefs - cincinnati-bengals -192 -101 (-3.5) -105 (48.5)
Sun Sep 15th 4pm Denver Broncos - pittsburgh-steelers 130 -108 (3) -110 (41.5)
Sun Sep 15th 8pm Houston Texans - chicago-bears -170 -109 (-4) -109 (46.5)
Mon Sep 16th 8pm Philadelphia Eagles - atlanta-falcons -166 -105 (-3.5) -110 (48.5)
Thu Sep 19th 8pm New York Jets - new-england-patriots -320 -110 (-7.5) -110 (42)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Indianapolis Colts - chicago-bears -130 -110 (-2) -108 (47)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Cleveland Browns - new-york-giants -240 -108 (-6.5) -108 (42.5)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - denver-broncos -160 -110 (-3.5) -110 (43)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Tennessee Titans - green-bay-packers 175 -110 (3.5) -110 (44)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Minnesota Vikings - houston-texans 180 100 (3.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - los-angeles-chargers -125 -110 (-2) -108 (42.5)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm New Orleans Saints - philadelphia-eagles 143 -110 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - carolina-panthers -185 -110 (-4) -110 (42)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Seattle Seahawks - miami-dolphins 122 -110 (2) -110 (49)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Arizona Cardinals - detroit-lions 160 -110 (4) -108 (50)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Dallas Cowboys - baltimore-ravens -112 -105 (-1) -110 (48)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Los Angeles Rams - san-francisco-49ers 162 -110 (3) -108 (48)
Sun Sep 22nd 8pm Atlanta Falcons - kansas-city-chiefs 152 -110 (3) -110 (49)
Mon Sep 23rd 7pm Buffalo Bills - jacksonville-jaguars -190 -110 (-5) -110 (49)
Mon Sep 23rd 8pm Cincinnati Bengals - washington-commanders -278 -115 (-7) -110 (48)
Thu Sep 26th 8pm New York Giants - dallas-cowboys 180 -110 (4) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - new-orleans-saints -185 -110 (-4) -108 (44.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Carolina Panthers - cincinnati-bengals 220 -110 (6.5) -108 (46)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Chicago Bears - los-angeles-rams -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (47)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm New York Jets - denver-broncos -278 -110 (-7.5) -110 (42.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Green Bay Packers - minnesota-vikings -218 -110 (-5) -108 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Houston Texans - jacksonville-jaguars -175 -108 (-3.5) -110 (47.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - pittsburgh-steelers -110 -110 (-0.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - philadelphia-eagles 135 -110 (2.5) -110 (47)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - washington-commanders -135 -112 (-2.5) -108 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - new-england-patriots -600 -110 (-11.5) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - cleveland-browns 120 -110 (2.5) -108 (43.5)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - kansas-city-chiefs 152 100 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 8pm Baltimore Ravens - buffalo-bills -155 -110 (-3) -110 (47.5)
Mon Sep 30th 7pm Miami Dolphins - tennessee-titans -270 -110 (-6.5) -110 (46)
Mon Sep 30th 8pm Detroit Lions - seattle-seahawks -245 -110 (-6) -110 (49)
Thu Oct 3rd 8pm Atlanta Falcons - tampa-bay-buccaneers -160 -115 (-3) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 6th 8am Minnesota Vikings - new-york-jets 175 -112 (4) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - baltimore-ravens -120 -110 (-1.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Houston Texans - buffalo-bills -125 -110 (-1.5) -110 (48)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Chicago Bears - carolina-panthers -218 -108 (-5.5) -108 (42)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Washington Commanders - cleveland-browns 158 -105 (3) -108 (43.5)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - indianapolis-colts -142 -110 (-2.5) -108 (47)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm New England Patriots - miami-dolphins 205 -110 (4.5) -110 (45)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - arizona-cardinals -425 -110 (-9.5) -110 (47)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm Denver Broncos - las-vegas-raiders -112 -105 (-1) -110 (41)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - green-bay-packers -130 -112 (-1.5) -108 (48.5)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm Seattle Seahawks - new-york-giants -160 -110 (-3.5) -108 (43)
Sun Oct 6th 8pm Pittsburgh Steelers - dallas-cowboys 122 -108 (1.5) -110 (43)
Mon Oct 7th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - new-orleans-saints -355 -110 (-8) -110 (44.5)
Thu Oct 10th 8pm Seattle Seahawks - san-francisco-49ers 196 -110 (5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 8am Chicago Bears - jacksonville-jaguars -102 -115 (1) -105 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Green Bay Packers - arizona-cardinals -210 -110 (-5) -108 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Baltimore Ravens - washington-commanders -355 -110 (-8) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Philadelphia Eagles - cleveland-browns -148 -108 (-3) -108 (45.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm New England Patriots - houston-texans 175 -110 (4.5) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Tennessee Titans - indianapolis-colts 105 -108 (1.5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm New Orleans Saints - tampa-bay-buccaneers -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (43)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Denver Broncos - los-angeles-chargers 122 -110 (2) -110 (43)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - pittsburgh-steelers -105 -112 (1) -110 (42)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - detroit-lions -110 -110 (-0.5) -110 (48.5)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Carolina Panthers - atlanta-falcons 154 -108 (3.5) -108 (44)
Sun Oct 13th 8pm New York Giants - cincinnati-bengals 196 -110 (4.5) -108 (45)
Mon Oct 14th 8pm New York Jets - buffalo-bills -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (47.5)
Thu Oct 17th 8pm New Orleans Saints - denver-broncos -180 -110 (-3.5) -110 (42.5)
Sun Oct 20th 8am Jacksonville Jaguars - new-england-patriots -260 -115 (-7) -110 (42.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - seattle-seahawks -175 -108 (-3.5) -110 (48)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Buffalo Bills - tennessee-titans -340 -120 (-7) -112 (47.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Cleveland Browns - cincinnati-bengals -108 -115 (1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - detroit-lions 158 100 (3) -108 (48)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Green Bay Packers - houston-texans -130 -108 (-2.5) -110 (48.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - miami-dolphins -105 -110 (1) -110 (49)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm New York Giants - philadelphia-eagles 196 -110 (4.5) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 20th 3pm San Francisco 49ers - kansas-city-chiefs -118 -110 (-1) -110 (49)
Sun Oct 20th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - las-vegas-raiders -218 -110 (-4.5) -110 (46)
Sun Oct 20th 4pm Washington Commanders - carolina-panthers -155 -110 (-3) -110 (42)
Sun Oct 20th 8pm Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-jets -105 -110 (1) -110 (43)
Mon Oct 21st 8pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - baltimore-ravens 185 -108 (5) -110 (46)
Mon Oct 21st 9pm Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-chargers -118 -110 (-1) -110 (45)
Thu Oct 24th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - minnesota-vikings -175 -108 (-3.5) -108 (45.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Cleveland Browns - baltimore-ravens -105 -110 (1) -110 (45.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Detroit Lions - tennessee-titans -310 -110 (-7) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Miami Dolphins - arizona-cardinals -250 -110 (-6) -110 (48.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - atlanta-falcons -115 -112 (-1) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Washington Commanders - chicago-bears 110 -108 (2) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - green-bay-packers -105 -110 (1) -110 (46)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Houston Texans - indianapolis-colts -198 -110 (-4) -108 (48)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm New England Patriots - new-york-jets 180 -110 (4.5) -110 (41.5)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Seattle Seahawks - buffalo-bills 124 -115 (3) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - new-orleans-saints -155 -110 (-3) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Denver Broncos - carolina-panthers -135 -110 (-2.5) -110 (42)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Cincinnati Bengals - philadelphia-eagles -155 -108 (-3) -110 (47.5)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - kansas-city-chiefs 205 -110 (5) -110 (47)
Sun Oct 27th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - dallas-cowboys -210 -110 (-5.5) -110 (46)
Mon Oct 28th 8pm Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-giants -185 -110 (-4) -110 (42.5)
Thu Oct 31st 8pm New York Jets - houston-texans -142 100 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Atlanta Falcons - dallas-cowboys -105 -110 (1) -110 (48)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Baltimore Ravens - denver-broncos -500 -110 (-10.5) -110 (43)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Buffalo Bills - miami-dolphins -155 -110 (-3) -110 (51)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Carolina Panthers - new-orleans-saints 100 -108 (1) -110 (40.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - las-vegas-raiders -310 -112 (-7) -108 (45)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Cleveland Browns - los-angeles-chargers -170 -120 (-3) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Minnesota Vikings - indianapolis-colts -110 -105 (-1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Tennessee Titans - new-england-patriots -148 -120 (-2.5) -110 (41)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm New York Giants - washington-commanders -125 -110 (-1.5) -110 (42)
Sun Nov 3rd 4pm Arizona Cardinals - chicago-bears -108 -115 (1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 4pm Green Bay Packers - detroit-lions -125 -110 (-1.5) -110 (49)
Sun Nov 3rd 4pm Seattle Seahawks - los-angeles-rams 105 -110 (1.5) -108 (46.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 8pm Philadelphia Eagles - jacksonville-jaguars -185 -105 (-3.5) -108 (47)
Mon Nov 4th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - tampa-bay-buccaneers -355 -120 (-7) -110 (47)
Thu Nov 7th 8pm Baltimore Ravens - cincinnati-bengals -155 -110 (-3) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 10th 7am Carolina Panthers - new-york-giants 112 -110 (1) -108 (42.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm New Orleans Saints - atlanta-falcons 105 -108 (1.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - buffalo-bills 122 -110 (2) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Chicago Bears - new-england-patriots -225 -110 (-5.5) -110 (43)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Kansas City Chiefs - denver-broncos -410 -110 (-9) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - minnesota-vikings -170 -120 (-3) -108 (44.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Washington Commanders - pittsburgh-steelers 102 -110 (1.5) -108 (43.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - san-francisco-49ers 205 -108 (4) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 10th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - tennessee-titans -180 -110 (-4) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 10th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - new-york-jets 130 -110 (3) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 10th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - philadelphia-eagles -125 -110 (-2) -110 (48)
Sun Nov 10th 8pm Houston Texans - detroit-lions -112 -108 (-1) -110 (50)
Mon Nov 11th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - miami-dolphins -115 -110 (-1) -110 (47.5)
Thu Nov 14th 8pm Philadelphia Eagles - washington-commanders -278 -110 (-6.5) -110 (45.5)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - baltimore-ravens 130 -115 (3) -110 (43)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Chicago Bears - green-bay-packers -108 -102 (-1) -108 (44.5)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm New Orleans Saints - cleveland-browns 122 -110 (2) -110 (42)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Detroit Lions - jacksonville-jaguars -192 -110 (-4) -110 (50)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Miami Dolphins - las-vegas-raiders -285 -110 (-6.5) -110 (47)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm New England Patriots - los-angeles-rams 180 -110 (4) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Tennessee Titans - minnesota-vikings -105 -112 (1) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm Denver Broncos - atlanta-falcons 142 100 (3) -110 (44.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - seattle-seahawks -355 -110 (-9) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm Buffalo Bills - kansas-city-chiefs 100 -102 (-1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - cincinnati-bengals 110 -108 (2) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 17th 8pm New York Jets - indianapolis-colts -192 -110 (-4) -110 (46)
Mon Nov 18th 8pm Dallas Cowboys - houston-texans -155 -110 (-3) -108 (49)
Thu Nov 21st 8pm Cleveland Browns - pittsburgh-steelers -142 100 (-3) -108 (43.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Carolina Panthers - kansas-city-chiefs 278 100 (7) -110 (45.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Chicago Bears - minnesota-vikings -166 -120 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Washington Commanders - dallas-cowboys 158 -105 (3) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - detroit-lions 114 -108 (2.5) -110 (48.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Houston Texans - tennessee-titans -250 -110 (-6) -108 (46.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Miami Dolphins - new-england-patriots -355 -110 (-7.5) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm New York Giants - tampa-bay-buccaneers -105 -110 (1) -112 (44)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - denver-broncos -125 -110 (-3) -110 (42)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks 135 -110 (3) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Green Bay Packers - san-francisco-49ers 122 -110 (2.5) -110 (47)
Sun Nov 24th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - philadelphia-eagles -112 -110 (-0.5) -110 (47)
Mon Nov 25th 8pm Los Angeles Chargers - baltimore-ravens 135 -112 (3) -110 (47)
Thu Nov 28th 12pm Detroit Lions - chicago-bears -192 -108 (-4) -108 (50)
Thu Nov 28th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - new-york-giants -375 -110 (-8) -110 (45.5)
Thu Nov 28th 8pm Green Bay Packers - miami-dolphins -155 -110 (-3) -110 (48.5)
Fri Nov 29th 3pm Kansas City Chiefs - las-vegas-raiders -340 -120 (-7) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Minnesota Vikings - arizona-cardinals -120 -108 (-1.5) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Atlanta Falcons - los-angeles-chargers -135 -110 (-2.5) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - pittsburgh-steelers -218 -110 (-5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - houston-texans -112 -105 (-1) -110 (47)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm New England Patriots - indianapolis-colts 152 100 (2) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm New York Jets - seattle-seahawks -198 -110 (-4.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Washington Commanders - tennessee-titans -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm Carolina Panthers - tampa-bay-buccaneers 105 -110 (2) -108 (43)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm New Orleans Saints - los-angeles-rams 105 -110 (1.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm Baltimore Ravens - philadelphia-eagles -190 -110 (-4) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 8pm Buffalo Bills - san-francisco-49ers 105 -110 (2) -110 (47)
Mon Dec 2nd 7pm Denver Broncos - cleveland-browns 150 -110 (3.5) -110 (43)
Thu Dec 5th 8pm Detroit Lions - green-bay-packers -155 -120 (-3) -110 (48)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - atlanta-falcons -102 -108 (1) -108 (45)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Philadelphia Eagles - carolina-panthers -355 -110 (-7.5) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - cleveland-browns -110 -102 (-1) -110 (43.5)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Tennessee Titans - jacksonville-jaguars 102 -110 (1.5) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - las-vegas-raiders -148 -120 (-2.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Miami Dolphins - new-york-jets -130 -110 (-2) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm New York Giants - new-orleans-saints -110 -118 (1) -110 (41)
Sun Dec 8th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks -115 -108 (-1) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 8th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - buffalo-bills -105 -110 (1) -110 (48)
Sun Dec 8th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - chicago-bears -230 -110 (-5.5) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 8th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - los-angeles-chargers -265 -110 (-6.5) -110 (44.5)
Mon Dec 9th 8pm Dallas Cowboys - cincinnati-bengals -118 -110 (-1) -110 (48.5)
Thu Dec 12th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - los-angeles-rams -270 -108 (-6.5) -108 (47)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Carolina Panthers - dallas-cowboys 225 -110 (6.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Cleveland Browns - kansas-city-chiefs 122 -120 (3) -108 (46.5)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm New York Giants - baltimore-ravens 225 -108 (6.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Tennessee Titans - cincinnati-bengals 170 -110 (4.5) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Houston Texans - miami-dolphins -142 -110 (-2.5) -110 (49.5)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - new-york-jets -105 -110 (1) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm New Orleans Saints - washington-commanders -148 -110 (-3) -108 (42)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - new-england-patriots -180 -110 (-3.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Detroit Lions - buffalo-bills -135 -110 (-2) -110 (50.5)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Denver Broncos - indianapolis-colts 120 -110 (2.5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - tampa-bay-buccaneers -145 -105 (-3) -110 (42.5)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Philadelphia Eagles - pittsburgh-steelers -205 -110 (-4.5) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 15th 8pm Seattle Seahawks - green-bay-packers -102 -110 (1) -108 (47)
Mon Dec 16th 7pm Minnesota Vikings - chicago-bears -110 -115 (1) -110 (46)
Mon Dec 16th 7pm Las Vegas Raiders - atlanta-falcons -105 -110 (1) -108 (45.5)
Thu Dec 19th 8pm Cincinnati Bengals - cleveland-browns -180 -108 (-3.5) -110 (45.5)
Sat Dec 21st 1pm Kansas City Chiefs - houston-texans -205 -108 (-4.5) -110 (47)
Sat Dec 21st 4pm Baltimore Ravens - pittsburgh-steelers -238 -105 (-6) -110 (42.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Carolina Panthers - arizona-cardinals -102 -110 (1) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Atlanta Falcons - new-york-giants -198 -110 (-4.5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Buffalo Bills - new-england-patriots -395 -110 (-8.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Chicago Bears - detroit-lions -108 -115 (1) -108 (47)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Indianapolis Colts - tennessee-titans -192 -110 (-4) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm New York Jets - los-angeles-rams -155 -110 (-3) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Washington Commanders - philadelphia-eagles 158 -105 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - denver-broncos -185 -110 (-4) -110 (43)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Seattle Seahawks - minnesota-vikings -125 -110 (-2) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - jacksonville-jaguars -105 -115 (1) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Miami Dolphins - san-francisco-49ers -105 -110 (1) -110 (49)
Sun Dec 22nd 8pm Dallas Cowboys - tampa-bay-buccaneers -205 -110 (-4.5) -110 (46.5)
Mon Dec 23rd 8pm Green Bay Packers - new-orleans-saints -218 -110 (-5) -110 (45)
Wed Dec 25th 4pm Pittsburgh Steelers - kansas-city-chiefs 230 -105 (4) -105 (41.5)
Wed Dec 25th 8pm Houston Texans - baltimore-ravens 108 -110 (1.5) -108 (46.5)
Thu Dec 26th 8pm Chicago Bears - seattle-seahawks -175 -108 (-3.5) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Buffalo Bills - new-york-jets -142 -115 (-2.5) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - carolina-panthers -205 -108 (-5) -108 (43)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - green-bay-packers 122 -108 (2) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - tennessee-titans -192 -108 (-4) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm New Orleans Saints - las-vegas-raiders -155 -120 (-2.5) -110 (43)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Washington Commanders - atlanta-falcons 124 100 (2.5) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - denver-broncos -375 -110 (-8) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm New York Giants - indianapolis-colts 110 -108 (2) -110 (43.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm New England Patriots - los-angeles-chargers 135 100 (2.5) -110 (41)
Sun Dec 29th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - arizona-cardinals -240 -108 (-6) -110 (48)
Sun Dec 29th 4pm Philadelphia Eagles - dallas-cowboys -135 -110 (-2) -110 (47)
Sun Dec 29th 8pm Cleveland Browns - miami-dolphins -130 -110 (-2) -110 (44.5)
Mon Dec 30th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - detroit-lions -205 -110 (-4.5) -108 (49.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - carolina-panthers -278 -110 (-6.5) -110 (45.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Baltimore Ravens - cleveland-browns -205 -110 (-4.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm New England Patriots - buffalo-bills 150 -110 (3.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Green Bay Packers - chicago-bears -170 -120 (-3) -110 (46)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - cincinnati-bengals -102 -110 (1) -108 (43.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Dallas Cowboys - washington-commanders -230 -110 (-5.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Detroit Lions - minnesota-vikings -245 -115 (-5.5) -110 (47)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Tennessee Titans - houston-texans 130 -110 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - jacksonville-jaguars -130 -110 (-2) -108 (46.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm New York Jets - miami-dolphins -155 -110 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - new-orleans-saints -135 -110 (-2.5) -108 (43)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Philadelphia Eagles - new-york-giants -205 -110 (-5) -110 (43)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - san-francisco-49ers 164 -108 (4) -110 (43)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Denver Broncos - kansas-city-chiefs 160 -110 (4) -110 (42.5)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - los-angeles-chargers -105 -112 (1) -110 (43.5)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - seattle-seahawks -225 -108 (-5.5) -110 (47)

Disclaimer

Ultimately football is played with real people, and not statistics. Compared to other sports, the NFL has relatively few games per year, leading to a small-sample-size problem. So any advice on football betting from anyone, including me, should be taken with a grain of salt.

One might also argue that the magnitude of the total should be taken under consideration. I would tend to disagree, but other sports bettors I respect maintain that the effect of buying and selling points is more significant in a game with a low total. I did not take that into consideration.