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Wizard of Odds on Buying and Selling Points in the NFL
Introduction
This page shows the fair price to buy or sell up to 1.5 points in the NFL, off of both the spread and the total. One practical use for this is when the sports book lets you change the point by up to 1.5 points. Of course, you'll have to lay more if buying points, and get more if selling them. Pinnacle sports book is a good example. You need to log in to do it, but they have a sliding toolbar for the adjusted prices when buying and selling up to 1.5 points. Another practical application is deciding what is the better of two lines. For example, +3 at even money, or +3.5 and -120.
The following table shows the fair price you should have to pay for buying and selling up to 1.5 points according to the fair point spread. For example, if a bet is fair at -10 even money, then it would also be fair at -11.5 at +122, -11 at +116, -10.5 at +109, -9.5 at -109, -9 at -111, and -8.5 at -113. It also answers the question posed above, that +3 even money is an equally good bet as +3.5 at -120. It also shows that it is worth paying 10 points for a half point of a point spread off or onto a spread of 7 (for example going from -7.5 to -7, -7 to -6.5, +6.5 to +7, and +7 to +7.5). So if you are going to lay 110 off of a 7 point spread anyway, it is slightly better to lay 120 for the half point, something many sports books allow.
Buying and Selling Points off of the Spread
| Spread | Sell 1.5 | Sell 1.0 | Sell 0.5 | Buy 0.5 | Buy 1.0 | Buy 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -14 | 117 | 114 | 111 | -111 | -116 | -121 |
| -13.5 | 127 | 123 | 112 | -105 | -109 | -111 |
| -13 | 129 | 117 | 105 | -105 | -106 | -108 |
| -12.5 | 122 | 109 | 105 | -102 | -103 | -110 |
| -12 | 111 | 106 | 102 | -102 | -108 | -114 |
| -11.5 | 108 | 103 | 102 | -106 | -112 | -123 |
| -11 | 109 | 108 | 106 | -106 | -116 | -125 |
| -10.5 | 114 | 112 | 106 | -109 | -118 | -121 |
| -10 | 122 | 116 | 109 | -109 | -111 | -113 |
| -9.5 | 126 | 118 | 109 | -102 | -104 | -108 |
| -9 | 120 | 111 | 102 | -102 | -106 | -111 |
| -8.5 | 113 | 104 | 102 | -104 | -109 | -122 |
| -8 | 108 | 106 | 104 | -104 | -116 | -128 |
| -7.5 | 111 | 109 | 104 | -111 | -123 | -133 |
| -7 | 121 | 116 | 111 | -111 | -119 | -127 |
| -6.5 | 129 | 123 | 111 | -107 | -114 | -118 |
| -6 | 131 | 120 | 107 | -107 | -110 | -113 |
| -5.5 | 128 | 114 | 107 | -103 | -106 | -114 |
| -5 | 117 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
| -4.5 | 114 | 106 | 103 | -107 | -114 | -141 |
| -4 | 113 | 110 | 107 | -107 | -131 | -154 |
| -3.5 | 118 | 114 | 107 | -122 | -144 | -151 |
| -3 | 137 | 129 | 120 | -120 | -125 | -130 |
| -2.5 | 156 | 144 | 122 | -104 | -108 | -114 |
| -2 | 150 | 127 | 104 | -104 | -109 | -114 |
| -1.5 | 133 | 108 | 104 | -105 | -109 | -110 |
| -1 | 113 | 109 | 105 | -105 | -105 | -105 |
| 0 | 110 | 105 | EV | EV | -105 | -110 |
| 1 | 105 | 105 | 105 | -105 | -109 | -113 |
| 1.5 | 110 | 109 | 105 | -104 | -108 | -133 |
| 2 | 114 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -127 | -150 |
| 2.5 | 114 | 108 | 104 | -122 | -144 | -156 |
| 3 | 130 | 125 | 120 | -120 | -129 | -137 |
| 3.5 | 151 | 144 | 122 | -107 | -114 | -118 |
| 4 | 154 | 131 | 107 | -107 | -110 | -113 |
| 4.5 | 141 | 114 | 107 | -103 | -106 | -114 |
| 5 | 117 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
| 5.5 | 114 | 106 | 103 | -107 | -114 | -128 |
| 6 | 113 | 110 | 107 | -107 | -120 | -131 |
| 6.5 | 118 | 114 | 107 | -111 | -123 | -129 |
| 7 | 127 | 119 | 111 | -111 | -116 | -121 |
| 7.5 | 133 | 123 | 111 | -104 | -109 | -111 |
| 8 | 128 | 116 | 104 | -104 | -106 | -108 |
| 8.5 | 122 | 109 | 104 | -102 | -104 | -113 |
| 9 | 111 | 106 | 102 | -102 | -111 | -120 |
| 9.5 | 108 | 104 | 102 | -109 | -118 | -126 |
| 10 | 113 | 111 | 109 | -109 | -116 | -122 |
| 10.5 | 121 | 118 | 109 | -106 | -112 | -114 |
| 11 | 125 | 116 | 106 | -106 | -108 | -109 |
| 11.5 | 123 | 112 | 106 | -102 | -103 | -108 |
| 12 | 114 | 108 | 102 | -102 | -106 | -111 |
| 12.5 | 110 | 103 | 102 | -105 | -109 | -122 |
| 13 | 108 | 106 | 105 | -105 | -117 | -129 |
| 13.5 | 111 | 109 | 105 | -112 | -123 | -127 |
| 14 | 121 | 116 | 111 | -111 | -114 | -117 |
The next table is for buying and selling points off of the total.
Buying and Selling Points off of the Total
| Total | Sell 1.5 | Sell 1.0 | Sell 0.5 | Buy 0.5 | Buy 1.0 | Buy 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 113 | 111 | 108 | -108 | -116 | -123 |
| 33.5 | 120 | 117 | 108 | -107 | -114 | -120 |
| 34 | 125 | 116 | 107 | -107 | -112 | -116 |
| 34.5 | 124 | 114 | 107 | -104 | -109 | -114 |
| 35 | 119 | 112 | 104 | -104 | -109 | -113 |
| 35.5 | 117 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -108 | -121 |
| 36 | 113 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -116 | -127 |
| 36.5 | 113 | 108 | 104 | -111 | -122 | -130 |
| 37 | 119 | 115 | 110 | -110 | -117 | -124 |
| 37.5 | 127 | 122 | 111 | -106 | -112 | -116 |
| 38 | 129 | 118 | 106 | -106 | -110 | -113 |
| 38.5 | 125 | 112 | 106 | -103 | -107 | -114 |
| 39 | 116 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -116 |
| 39.5 | 113 | 107 | 103 | -106 | -112 | -122 |
| 40 | 113 | 110 | 106 | -106 | -115 | -124 |
| 40.5 | 116 | 112 | 106 | -108 | -117 | -121 |
| 41 | 121 | 115 | 108 | -108 | -112 | -115 |
| 41.5 | 125 | 117 | 108 | -103 | -107 | -114 |
| 42 | 121 | 112 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
| 42.5 | 116 | 107 | 103 | -107 | -113 | -122 |
| 43 | 113 | 110 | 106 | -106 | -115 | -123 |
| 43.5 | 117 | 113 | 107 | -108 | -115 | -125 |
| 44 | 122 | 115 | 107 | -107 | -116 | -124 |
| 44.5 | 124 | 115 | 108 | -108 | -115 | -120 |
| 45 | 124 | 116 | 107 | -107 | -112 | -116 |
| 45.5 | 125 | 115 | 108 | -104 | -108 | -117 |
| 46 | 120 | 112 | 104 | -104 | -113 | -121 |
| 46.5 | 116 | 108 | 104 | -108 | -117 | -125 |
| 47 | 117 | 112 | 108 | -108 | -115 | -122 |
| 47.5 | 122 | 117 | 108 | -106 | -113 | -120 |
| 48 | 124 | 116 | 106 | -106 | -113 | -119 |
| 48.5 | 123 | 113 | 106 | -106 | -112 | -118 |
| 49 | 119 | 113 | 106 | -106 | -112 | -118 |
| 49.5 | 119 | 112 | 106 | -106 | -111 | -124 |
| 50 | 118 | 112 | 106 | -106 | -117 | -128 |
| 50.5 | 118 | 111 | 106 | -111 | -122 | -133 |
| 51 | 123 | 117 | 110 | -110 | -120 | -129 |
| 51.5 | 129 | 122 | 111 | -108 | -117 | -122 |
| 52 | 131 | 120 | 108 | -108 | -113 | -118 |
2010 Super Bowl Example
Let's take a look at an example from the Pinnacle Sports adjusted lines on the 2010 Super Bowl. The default lines are Saints +5.5 -106, and Colts -5.5 -102. The following table shows the lines on the Saints. The first column shows the point spreads available. The second column shows the prices Pinnacle offers at each spread. The third column shows the fair line. These can be found from my tables, and then subtracting 2. The reason for subtracting 2 is the Saints are slightly favored at +5.5. The fourth column shows the expected value. Note that none of the adjusted lines are ever a better value than betting the default line of +5.5.
Pinnacle Sports Lines on Saints
| Spread | Pinnacle Line |
Fair Line |
Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +7 | -144 | -130 | -4.16% |
| +6.5 | -124 | -116 | -2.93% |
| +6 | -116 | -109 | -2.86% |
| +5.5 | -106 | -102 | -1.87% |
| +5 | -103 | 101 | -1.92% |
| +4.5 | 100 | 104 | -1.91% |
| +4 | 107 | 112 | -2.13% |
The next table is much the same, but for the Colts. In this case I added 2 points to the fair lines, because the Colts are slight underdogs against a 5.5 spread. This table shows that it is a better value to sell the 1.5 points, and lay 7 points at +128, as opposed to lay 5.5 points at -106. All bets still have a negative expected value. However, if your handicapping skills led you to bet the Colts anyway at -5.5 -102, you would be better off betting them at -7 +128.
Pinnacle Sports Lines on Colts
| Spread | Pinnacle Line |
Fair Line |
Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 128 | 130 | -0.96% |
| -6.5 | 110 | 116 | -2.84% |
| -6 | 103 | 109 | -2.90% |
| -5.5 | -102 | 102 | -1.96% |
| -5 | -110 | -101 | -4.09% |
| -4.5 | -114 | -104 | -4.35% |
| -4 | -122 | -112 | -4.07% |
I have looked at the Pinnacle lines on some other NFL games besides the Super Bowl. To make a general statement, I think Pinnacle does a solid job setting their alternative point spreads. Sometimes I perceive a better value than the default point spread selling 1.5 points, but never enough to overcome the juice. My advice is if you are going to bet something on Pinnacle anyway, check to see if you get a better value selling 1.5 points.
Methodology
The above tables were based on NFL seasons from 1983 through 2009. To get at a fair probability of winning buying or selling points off of a given spread or total, I looked at all games within 3 points of the spread or total in question, to see how often the final score would have been affected by buying or selling points.
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Cleveland Browns Kansas City Chiefs |
|
-105 (4)
|
-110 (43)
|
Chiefs are strong at home; Mahomes’ passing is key. Browns’ defense must disrupt timing. Watch for turnovers; they could swing momentum. Betting lines might favor Chiefs. Monitor injury reports. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
New York Giants Baltimore Ravens |
900
|
|
-110 (42.5)
|
Giants' defense strong; Ravens' offense dynamic. Giants' recent form inconsistent. Ravens favored due to superior roster and consistent performance. Close match expected. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Tennessee Titans Cincinnati Bengals |
|
-110 (5)
|
|
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Key players, injury updates, and recent performance trends are crucial for informed betting. Consider defensive strength and offensive strategies for a comprehensive evaluation. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Houston Texans Miami Dolphins |
|
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Analyzing performance trends: Dolphins projected to dominate Texans. Key variables include passing efficiency and defensive fortitude. Consider Miami's home advantage and Texans' recent struggles against strong defenses. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets |
|
100 (3)
|
-110 (40.5)
|
Jacksonville Jaguars show strong offensive play. New York Jets rely on defense. Expect a close game with potential turnovers. Key players: Lawrence and Wilson. Watch the weather impact. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
New Orleans Saints Washington Commanders |
|
|
|
The Saints' strong defense faces the Commanders' dynamic offense. Key matchup: Saints' pass rush vs. Commanders' O-line. Turnovers could decide the tight contest. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Carolina Panthers Dallas Cowboys |
|
|
-110 (43)
|
Cowboys favored with strong offense. Panthers face challenges in defense. Key players to watch: Dak Prescott (DAL), Sam Darnold (CAR). Turnover battle crucial. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills |
-140
|
-110 (-2.5)
|
-110 (54.5)
|
The Buffalo Bills are favorites against the Detroit Lions. Consider player performance trends and injury reports before betting. Home field could provide an advantage, but Bills' offense is strong. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-110 (-5.5)
|
-110 (43)
|
The Eagles have a strong offense, while the Steelers' defense is robust. Key players will impact the game's outcome. Consider both teams' recent performances and injury reports. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Los Angeles Chargers Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
100 (-3)
|
-110 (45.5)
|
The Chargers' strong offense faces Buccaneers' tough defense. Watch Herbert’s performance against Buccaneers' secondary. Key: turnovers and QB pressure. Both teams need a win for playoff contention. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Denver Broncos Indianapolis Colts |
|
|
|
Expect a close game; Broncos' defensive strength will test Colts' offense. Key players include Russell Wilson for Broncos and Jonathan Taylor for Colts. Weather may influence the game's dynamics. |
|
Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Arizona Cardinals New England Patriots |
|
|
-110 (46)
|
Consider Patriots' strong defense against Cardinals' inconsistent offense. Weather conditions may favor New England. Key injuries on both sides could impact game outcome. Monitor betting lines closely. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 15th 8pm
Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers |
|
|
|
Seattle's strong defense meets Green Bay's potent offense. Key players could make or break the game, so watch starters' fitness. Weather conditions might also influence play outcomes significantly. |
|
Mon Dec 16th 7pm
Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears |
|
100 (-7)
|
-110 (43.5)
|
Minnesota Vikings' strong offense faces Bears' defensive challenges. Watch for turnovers; both teams struggle under pressure. Key players could swing odds. Weather may impact game dynamics. Underdogs have potential. |
|
Mon Dec 16th 7pm
Las Vegas Raiders Atlanta Falcons |
|
-110 (4)
|
|
The Raiders' strong offense meets the Falcons' shaky defense. Expect a high-scoring game with potential turnovers. Betting on the over could be wise. |
|
Thu Dec 19th 8pm
Los Angeles Chargers Denver Broncos |
|
|
|
Chargers strong passing game vs Broncos solid defense. Broncos struggle in offense, home advantage. Watch Herbert's performance, injuries impact both teams. Consider Chargers' recent form, betting within responsible limits. |
|
Sat Dec 21st 1pm
Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans |
|
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs possess a stronger roster and home advantage, making them favorites against Houston Texans, despite Texans' potential for an upset. |
|
Sat Dec 21st 4pm
Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-105 (-5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Ravens and Steelers rivalry is intense. Ravens’ offense is strong but inconsistent. Steelers' defense is tough. Key factors: turnovers and home-field advantage. Both teams have passionate fanbases. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Expect an intense matchup. Panthers aim to dominate with McCaffrey, while Cardinals rely on Murray's agility. Defensive strategies will be crucial. Watch for turnovers impacting game flow. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Atlanta Falcons New York Giants |
-240
|
-110 (-8.5)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
The Falcons' offense is strong, but their defense struggles. Giants show solid defense, but lack offensive consistency. Look for turnovers and QB performance to be key factors. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Buffalo Bills New England Patriots |
-430
|
-110 (-13)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Buffalo's strong offense faces Patriots' resilient defense. Key players: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs vs. Mac Jones, Matthew Judon. Consider home advantage, weather, and recent form for placing bets. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Chicago Bears Detroit Lions |
|
|
-110 (48)
|
The Bears' defense struggles against high-powered offenses. Lions have a potent passing game, making them favored. Weather conditions could influence play. Monitor any injuries for impact on betting lines. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans |
-205
|
-105 (-4.5)
|
-110 (42)
|
Colts and Titans have a strong rivalry. Colts excel in passing; Titans dominate the ground game. Key matchup: Colts’ defense vs. Derrick Henry. Weather could impact passing plays. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
New York Jets Los Angeles Rams |
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Jets rely on solid defense; Rams boast a stronger offense. Watch for quarterback matchups. Possible low-scoring game. Special teams could decide. Bet cautiously. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Washington Commanders Philadelphia Eagles |
158
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (48)
|
Eagles are favored with strong offense. Commanders need defensive strategy. Key player performance could shift odds. Watch for turnovers and special teams impact. Betting line fluctuates with injuries. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns |
|
-105 (-6)
|
|
Consider the Bengals' strong offense against the Browns' defense. Check injury reports. Weather could affect gameplay. Recent head-to-head statistics and home-field advantage are pivotal for betting decisions. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Seattle Seahawks Minnesota Vikings |
|
-110 (1.5)
|
|
Seahawks' strong offense clashes with Vikings' tight defense. Key players: Wilson, Cook. Home advantage favors Vikings. Monitor weather conditions. Bet cautiously, as both teams show unpredictable performances. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Las Vegas Raiders Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
-110 (-1)
|
-110 (39.5)
|
Las Vegas Raiders boast a strong offense while Jaguars' defense shows resilience. Monitor line movement and injury reports. Raiders slightly favored, expect a close game with potential high scoring. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Miami Dolphins San Francisco 49ers |
|
-110 (-1.5)
|
-110 (49)
|
The Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers face off in a close matchup. Evaluate recent performance, injuries, and weather conditions before placing your bets. Home advantage favors the 49ers. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 22nd 8pm
Dallas Cowboys Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Cowboys' strong offense faces Buccaneers' solid defense. Key players and turnovers will likely decide the game's outcome. Watch for momentum shifts in crucial moments. |
|
Mon Dec 23rd 8pm
Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints |
-240
|
|
-110 (42)
|
Green Bay Packers may face challenges against New Orleans Saints due to strong Saints defense. Key players to watch: Aaron Rodgers and Alvin Kamara. Weather could impact play strategies. |
Disclaimer
Ultimately football is played with real people, and not statistics. Compared to other sports, the NFL has relatively few games per year, leading to a small-sample-size problem. So any advice on football betting from anyone, including me, should be taken with a grain of salt.
One might also argue that the magnitude of the total should be taken under consideration. I would tend to disagree, but other sports bettors I respect maintain that the effect of buying and selling points is more significant in a game with a low total. I did not take that into consideration.