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Betting the NHL
On this page
Introduction
The goal of this page is to help the recreational hockey better. I carefully look at the value of the major ways to bet -- the money line, over/under, and puck line, to determine the best value. Then I list some miscellaneous hockey statistics for your entertainment.
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Data and Methodology
The following data is from every game played in the four NHL seasons starting with the 2017/18 season. The total number of games played in these four seasons is 4,875. It is worth noting that the 2020/2021 season was shortened to 1,904 games due to the Covid pandemic.
The data was purchased from Big Ball Data one season at a time. The first three seasons had very tight lines that I presume came from Pinnacle Sports. The fourth season had more normal 20-cent lines. In evaluating the expected returns below, I calculated overall returns for all the data and then used the appropriate weighting factors to get the returns to equal the 4.54% expected with a 20-cent line, which the vast majority of sports books offer for hockey.
The next three sections show my analysis of the three major ways of betting hockey -- the money line, over/under, and puck line.
Compare Online NHL Odds
Ice Hockey : HockeyAllsvenskan
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sat Dec 14th 12pm
BIK Karlskoga Almtuna IS |
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⇗15.00 |
Karlskoga has a solid home record, while Almtuna recently improved their away performance. Expect a close encounter with potential for a high-scoring game. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tue Dec 17th 1pm
Djurgårdens IF Kalmar HC |
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Djurgårdens IF has a strong home record. Kalmar HC may struggle defensively. Consider betting on Djurgårdens to win. Check lineup updates for any potential changes in player status. |
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Wed Dec 18th 1pm
IF Björklöven Mora IK |
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⇗5.00 |
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Bjorkloven vs Mora IK: Both teams show strong offensive plays, but Bjorkloven has a slightly better home record. Watch for dynamic forwards and potential high-scoring game dynamics. |
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Wed Dec 18th 1pm
IK Oskarshamn Vimmerby HC |
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IK Oskarshamn favorites, relying on strong defense. Vimmerby HC underdogs but can capitalize on counter-attacks. Watch key players impact. Betting edges possible if following team news and form trends. |
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Wed Dec 18th 1pm
Östersunds IK Södertälje SK |
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Östersunds IK lacks experience compared to Södertälje SK, who have a stronger lineup. Look for Södertälje to capitalize on power plays. Consider betting on Södertälje for a win. |
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Wed Dec 18th 1pm
Västerås IK Tingsryds AIF |
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Västerås IK has a strong home advantage. Tingsryds AIF may struggle defensively. Consider betting on Västerås IK for a win, but watch for last-minute lineup changes. |
Ice Hockey : NHL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sat Dec 14th 1pm
New Jersey Devils Chicago Blackhawks |
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-130 (-1.5)
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Devils favored with better form; Blackhawks struggle. Watch Devils’ strong offense vs. Blackhawks’ improving defense. Betting tip: Consider Devils win, but monitor goalie matchups closely. |
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Sat Dec 14th 1pm
New York Rangers Los Angeles Kings |
-105
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-115 (5.5)
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Rangers' strong defense faces Kings' aggressive attack. Goalies are crucial. Close match likely; expect a low-scoring game. Bet on under with caution. |
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Sat Dec 14th 2pm
Minnesota Wild Philadelphia Flyers |
⇘2.00 |
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⇗222.00 |
Minnesota Wild boasts strong defense, making them favorites over Philadelphia Flyers. Flyers struggle away, while Wild excels at home. Expect a tight match, strong focus on defensive strategies. |
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Sat Dec 14th 4pm
Edmonton Oilers Vegas Golden Knights |
-140
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Expect a high-scoring game. Edmonton's offense is strong but Vegas has solid defense. Betting on the total points might be worthwhile. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sat Dec 14th 7pm
Ottawa Senators Pittsburgh Penguins |
⇗13.00 |
⇗15.00 |
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Home advantage and past performances favor Pittsburgh Penguins. Ottawa Senators have strong offense but inconsistent defense. Injuries may affect gameplay. Consider over/under goals betting options. |
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Sat Dec 14th 7pm
Winnipeg Jets Montréal Canadiens |
⇗2.00 |
⇗2.00 |
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Winnipeg Jets have strong offense; Canadiens need a strategic defense. Key players: Connor, Scheifele. Watch for power plays. Home advantage might favor the Jets. |
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Sat Dec 14th 7pm
Detroit Red Wings Toronto Maple Leafs |
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-105 (6)
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Toronto Maple Leafs favored due to strong offensive lineup. Detroit Red Wings showing improvement but face tough odds. Consider betting on total goals or alternate spreads. |
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Sat Dec 14th 7pm
Washington Capitals Buffalo Sabres |
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140 (-1.5)
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Washington Capitals have a strong defense, while Buffalo Sabres excel in offense. Recent form suggests a tight matchup. Consider Capitals’ home advantage. Goals expected from top lines. |
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Sat Dec 14th 7pm
Columbus Blue Jackets Anaheim Ducks |
⇘5.00 |
⇘8.00 |
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Columbus has strong home-ice advantage. Anaheim struggles on the road. Key players could impact outcome. Watch for power plays. Weather not a factor. Defensive strategies will be crucial. |
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Sat Dec 14th 8pm
Dallas Stars St Louis Blues |
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-105 (6)
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Dallas Stars focus on home ice advantage. St Louis Blues rely on strong defense. Key players: Tyler Seguin, Ryan O'Reilly. Betting tip: consider under 5.5 goals. |
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Sat Dec 14th 9pm
Colorado Avalanche Nashville Predators |
⇗17.00 |
⇗7.00 |
⇘2.00 |
Avalanche's strong offense faces Predators’ solid defense. Watch for Colorado's speed. Nashville's goaltending is crucial. Player form and home advantage may decide the game result. Expect a close matchup. |
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Sat Dec 14th 10pm
Vancouver Canucks Boston Bruins |
⇘1.00 |
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Boston Bruins showcase strong defense and home advantage. Vancouver Canucks rely on fast-paced offense. Betting insights favor Bruins but consider Canucks' underdog potential for upset. |
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Sat Dec 14th 10pm
Calgary Flames Florida Panthers |
⇗5.00 |
⇗2.00 |
⇗14.00 |
Calgary's strong at home but watch Panthers' fast break. Flames' defense faces challenge with Florida's offense. Goalies' performances, penalties, and power plays could be decisive. |
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Sat Dec 14th 10pm
San Jose Sharks Utah Hockey Club |
⇗8.00 |
⇗5.00 |
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San Jose Sharks boast experience against Utah Hockey Club's youthful vigor. Sharper offense might give Sharks slight edge, but Utah’s resilience could surprise. Betting leans towards Sharks. |
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Sat Dec 14th 10pm
Seattle Kraken Tampa Bay Lightning |
⇗1.00 |
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Seattle Kraken's defense strengthens; Tampa Bay's power play shines. Expect a close match. Lightning's home advantage could be key. Watch for top scorers and goalies' form. |
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Sun Dec 15th 3pm
Chicago Blackhawks New York Islanders |
Chicago Blackhawks struggle defensively. New York Islanders have strong home performance. Consider Islanders' advantage through disciplined defense and offense. Watch for potential impactful players and injury reports. | |||
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Sun Dec 15th 5pm
Toronto Maple Leafs Buffalo Sabres |
Toronto's strong offense heads into a matchup against Buffalo's inconsistent defense. Key player performance may sway the game. Monitor line movement and player status updates for best odds. | |||
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Sun Dec 15th 5pm
Carolina Hurricanes Columbus Blue Jackets |
The Hurricanes have a stronger defense and more offensive depth. The Blue Jackets need strong goaltending to compete. Look for key player matchups that might influence the outcome. | |||
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Sun Dec 15th 6pm
Minnesota Wild Vegas Golden Knights |
Minnesota Wild faces Vegas Golden Knights in an NHL clash. Consider recent form, injuries, and head-to-head stats. Home advantage may play a role. Expect a competitive game. | |||
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Sun Dec 15th 6pm
St Louis Blues New York Rangers |
St. Louis Blues vs. New York Rangers: Expect strong defensive play. Rangers' key players could dominate. Watch for power-play effectiveness. Recent form favors the Rangers slightly. It could be a tight game. |
Ice Hockey : NHL Championship Winner
| Thu Jun 19th 8pm | Competitor/Team | Quote |
|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers |
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More odds |
| Carolina Hurricanes |
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| Florida Panthers |
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| Dallas Stars |
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| Colorado Avalanche |
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| New York Rangers |
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| Toronto Maple Leafs |
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| New Jersey Devils |
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| Winnipeg Jets |
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| Vegas Golden Knights |
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| Tampa Bay Lightning |
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| Minnesota Wild |
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| Vancouver Canucks |
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| Washington Capitals |
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| Boston Bruins |
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| Los Angeles Kings |
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| Nashville Predators |
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| Ottawa Senators |
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| New York Islanders |
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| Utah Hockey Club |
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| Buffalo Sabres |
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| Seattle Kraken |
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| Detroit Red Wings |
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| St Louis Blues |
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| Pittsburgh Penguins |
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| Calgary Flames |
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| Philadelphia Flyers |
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| Montréal Canadiens |
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| Chicago Blackhawks |
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| Columbus Blue Jackets |
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| Anaheim Ducks |
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| San Jose Sharks |
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Ice Hockey : SHL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thu Dec 19th 1pm
Växjö Lakers Örebro HK |
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Växjö Lakers hold strong home advantage; Örebro HK's defense challenges opponents. Expect a tight game with potential for overtime. Watch goalie performance; it might tip the scales. |
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Thu Dec 19th 1pm
Skellefteå AIK Timrå IK |
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Skellefteå's strong home record gives them an edge. Timrå's inconsistent defense may struggle. Consider betting on Skellefteå to win. Check lineups and injury reports before betting. |
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Thu Dec 19th 1pm
Luleå HF Modo Hockey |
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Luleå HF has a strong home advantage, while Modo Hockey has shown recent improvement. Consider goal trends and injuries. Luleå's defense can be pivotal. |
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Thu Dec 19th 1pm
Linköping HC Rögle BK |
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Linköping HC faces Rögle BK with strong defensive strategies. Rögle's attacking prowess is notable. Anticipate a competitive match, with potential for tight scorelines and decisive moments. |
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Thu Dec 19th 1pm
Malmö Redhawks Leksands IF |
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Malmö Redhawks' defense strong, Leksands IF relies on offense. Check injuries and form. Watch previous encounters for patterns. Expect a close match. Betting odds might favor Leksands. |
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Thu Dec 19th 1pm
Frölunda HC HV71 |
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Frölunda HC has a strong home record, while HV71 excels defensively. Key players could be the difference in this tight match. Watch for dynamic forward plays and goalkeeping. |
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Thu Dec 19th 1pm
Brynäs IF Färjestad BK |
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Brynäs IF vs. Färjestad BK: Brynäs struggles defensively; Färjestad's form strong. High-scoring game likely as both teams trade offensive plays. Watch for power-play opportunities. |
Money Line
Money Line bets are simple bets on who will win. The following table shows the expected return flat betting all underdogs, favorites, and picks (both teams have 50/50 chance of winning). As expected, based on studying other sports, the underdogs offer a better value, with a house edge 2.73% less than better on favorites.
Money Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog | 96.82% | 3.18% |
| Favorite | 94.09% | 5.91% |
| Pick | 95.45% | 4.55% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Of the 4,875 games in the last four seasons studied, the home team won 2,627 (53.9%) and the road team was 2,248 (46.1%). The next table breaks down how money line bets went both ways.
Money Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Road | 94.82% | 5.18% |
| Home | 96.09% | 3.91% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Over/Under
The next table looks at bets against the total. Not surprisingly, bets on the under did bet, with a house edge 1.67% than bets on the cover. This does not come as a surprise, because bets on the under do significantly better than the over in every sport I have studied.
Over/Under Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 94.62% | 5.38% |
| Under | 96.29% | 3.71% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Puck Line
The Puck Line is like the Run Line in baseball. It is a point spread that is always 1.5. The favorite always gives up 1.5 goals and the underdog gets them. The following table shows that the house edge betting on the underdog is 1.61% lower than betting the favorite.
Puck Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog +1.5 | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Favorite -1.5 | 94.65% | 5.35% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
I should mention I spent a lot of time studying puck line bets, looking to see if there was any value assuming the money line bets were fair. To make a long story short, I find the sports books do a good job in setting the puck lines properly.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average goals scored by period and overtime for both regular season games and the playoffs.
The reason I think they should be considered separately is there is an incentive to go to overtime in regular season games. To be specific, if a game is decided after three periods, then two points are awarded to the winner and zero to the loser. However, if the game is decided in overtime, two points are awarded to the winner and one to the loser. Overtime is always sudden death (team to score first wins). The data shows the probability of overtime in a regular season game is 22.57% and drops to 20.89% in the playoffs.
Average Goals by Period
| Period | Regular Season |
Overtime | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.7260 | 1.5300 | 1.7106 |
| 2 | 2.0100 | 1.9530 | 2.0055 |
| 3 | 2.0151 | 1.9008 | 2.0062 |
| Overtime | 0.2257 | 0.2089 | 0.2244 |
| Total | 5.9768 | 5.5927 | 5.9467 |
The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for a single team.
Number of Goals per Team by Period
| Goals | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42.02% | 36.04% | 37.08% |
| 1 | 37.01% | 37.84% | 35.67% |
| 2 | 15.59% | 17.94% | 19.22% |
| 3 | 4.39% | 6.50% | 6.22% |
| 4 | 0.81% | 1.41% | 1.56% |
| 5 | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.23% |
| 6 | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| 7 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Average | 0.8553 | 1.0028 | 1.0031 |
The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for both teams combined.
Number of Goals per Team by Period
| Goals | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.68% | 12.80% | 12.21% |
| 1 | 30.75% | 26.38% | 26.87% |
| 2 | 26.77% | 28.35% | 28.33% |
| 3 | 15.77% | 18.65% | 19.43% |
| 4 | 6.58% | 9.39% | 8.88% |
| 5 | 1.78% | 3.16% | 2.81% |
| 6 | 0.51% | 0.82% | 1.15% |
| 7 | 0.06% | 0.37% | 0.29% |
| 8 | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.04% |
| 9 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Average | 1.7106 | 2.0055 | 2.0062 |
The following shows the number of goals scored by the home team across the road team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Number of Goals by Home Team across Road Team
| Home Goals |
Road Goals |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
| 0 | 0 | 40 | 46 | 88 | 61 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 264 |
| 1 | 51 | 0 | 214 | 129 | 178 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 680 |
| 2 | 49 | 227 | 0 | 334 | 151 | 130 | 41 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 952 |
| 3 | 96 | 168 | 336 | 0 | 278 | 96 | 56 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1055 |
| 4 | 68 | 180 | 191 | 274 | 0 | 128 | 24 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 887 |
| 5 | 32 | 97 | 223 | 89 | 106 | 0 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 591 |
| 6 | 11 | 44 | 56 | 93 | 38 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 283 |
| 7 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 316 | 786 | 1098 | 1048 | 841 | 492 | 195 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 4875 |
The following shows the number of goals scored by the winning team across the losing team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Number of Goals per by Winning Team across Losing Team
| Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| 2 | 95 | 441 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 536 |
| 3 | 184 | 297 | 670 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1151 |
| 4 | 129 | 358 | 342 | 552 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1381 |
| 5 | 52 | 167 | 353 | 185 | 234 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 991 |
| 6 | 20 | 67 | 97 | 149 | 62 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 464 |
| 7 | 6 | 35 | 38 | 49 | 40 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 |
| 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 580 | 1375 | 1514 | 952 | 347 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4875 |
The following table shows the number the count for each margin of victory and the probability for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Margin of Victory
| Margin | Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2,069 | 42.44% |
| 2 | 996 | 20.43% |
| 3 | 1,095 | 22.46% |
| 4 | 451 | 9.25% |
| 5 | 172 | 3.53% |
| 6 | 71 | 1.46% |
| 7 | 14 | 0.29% |
| 8 | 4 | 0.08% |
| 9 | 3 | 0.06% |
| Total | 4,875 | 100.00% |
The following table shows various statistics per game for road and home teams as well as the total between the two.
Miscellaneous Statistics — Road vs. Home
| Description | Road Team | Home Team | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shifts | 384.95 | 379.46 | 764.41 |
| Shots on goal | 30.56 | 31.87 | 62.43 |
| Shots missed | 11.36 | 12.16 | 23.52 |
| Shots blocked | 14.34 | 13.90 | 28.24 |
| Assists | 4.68 | 5.16 | 9.84 |
| Points* | 7.47 | 8.22 | 15.70 |
| Penalties | 3.58 | 3.34 | 6.92 |
| Penalty minutes | 8.47 | 7.92 | 16.40 |
| Hits | 22.37 | 23.29 | 45.66 |
| Take aways | 6.32 | 7.97 | 14.29 |
| Give aways | 7.95 | 10.56 | 18.52 |
| Faceoffs won | 28.42 | 29.93 | 58.35 |
| Faceoffs lost | 29.93 | 28.42 | 58.34 |
The following table shows various statistics per game for regular season and play offs games as well as the total between the two.
Miscellaneous Statistics — Regular Season vs. Playoffs
| Description | Regular Season |
Playoffs | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shifts | 759.22 | 825.24 | 764.41 |
| Shots on goal | 62.40 | 62.79 | 62.43 |
| Shots missed | 23.48 | 23.95 | 23.52 |
| Shots blocked | 27.92 | 31.91 | 28.24 |
| Assists | 9.88 | 9.34 | 9.84 |
| Points | 15.76 | 14.93 | 15.70 |
| Penalties | 6.85 | 7.77 | 6.92 |
| Penalty minutes | 16.16 | 19.18 | 16.40 |
| Hits | 43.74 | 68.15 | 45.66 |
| Take aways | 14.28 | 14.39 | 14.29 |
| Give aways | 18.32 | 20.89 | 18.52 |
| Faceoffs won | 58.29 | 59.09 | 58.35 |
Notes:
*: A point is different from a goal. Points may be awarded to players assisting in a goal. The ratio of points to goals in the NHL for the four seasons starting in 2017 is 2.64.
The following table shows the ratio of goals to shots on goals cut various ways.
Ratio of Goals to Shots
| Category | Ratio |
|---|---|
| Away | 9.29% |
| Home | 9.75% |
| Regular season | 9.58% |
| Playoffs | 8.91% |
| Total | 9.52% |