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Betting Major League Baseball
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Introduction
The page will endeavor to give the recreational baseball bettor advice on the various bets. I have no handicapping skill in baseball whatsoever, so the best I can do is steer you towards the best type of bets. There are three primary ways to bet on baseball, as follows.
- Money line: Bet on which team will win.
- Total: Bet on whether the total number of runs will fall above or below a stated number, usually between 7 and 12.
- Run line: Similar to a bet against the spread in football or basketball. However, in baseball the better team is always favored by 1.5. If the money line indicates neither team is favored, then either team could be the favored team.
Compare Online MLB Odds
Baseball MLB
Today
Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox
Money Line
108
⇗5.00
-115
⇗4.00
Spread
-170
(1.5)
⇗5.00
158
(-1.5)
158
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Seattle Mariners facing the Boston Red Sox showcases a matchup with Seattle's pitching depth against Boston's strong offensive lineup. Look for high strikeouts from Mariners' pitchers, while the Red Sox will rely on their hitting power.
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
Money Line
150
-163
⇗2.00
Featured Insight
The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies matchup features a clash between a strong pitching staff and a potent offense. The Marlins have shown resilience on the mound, while the Phillies' lineup offers explosive potential.
Detroit Tigers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Money Line
-300
⇗9.00
265
⇗8.00
Spread
126
(-2.5)
120
(1.5)
Featured Insight
Detroit Tigers face the Pittsburgh Pirates in MLB action. The Tigers have shown strong pitching lately, which could give them an edge. However, the Pirates recently improved their batting lineup. Watch for a low-scoring game, as both teams emphasize pitching.
Washington Nationals
Colorado Rockies
Money Line
-145
⇗10.00
136
⇗2.00
Spread
135
(-1.5)
⇗5.00
-142
(1.5)
⇗4.00
Featured Insight
Both the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies have struggled this season, but the Rockies tend to perform better at home due to the Coors Field advantage. Keep an eye on the pitchers; Nationals' rotation has shown vulnerabilities.
New York Yankees
Los Angeles Angels
Money Line
-210
⇗3.00
190
⇗14.00
Spread
-110
(-1.5)
100
(1.5)
⇗205.00
Featured Insight
In the matchup between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Angels, consider the Yankees' strong pitching staff and home-field advantage. The Angels rely heavily on their star players for offensive production.
Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks
Money Line
-105
-103
⇗2.00
Featured Insight
Despite an impressive batting line-up, Toronto struggles against left-handers, giving Arizona potential leverage. Recent Blue Jays games show a tendency for high-scoring affairs.
Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins
Money Line
-129
⇗4.00
118
⇗4.00
Spread
172
(-1.5)
165
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Cincinnati Reds face the Minnesota Twins in a tense MLB showdown. The Reds boast a strong lineup with consistent hitters, but their pitching has been inconsistent. The Twins, however, have a solid pitching rotation but struggle with offensive power.
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Money Line
-178
164
Spread
115
(-1.5)
⇗6.00
-129
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Atlanta Braves are strong contenders with a robust lineup and impressive pitching staff. They have consistent performance and will likely dominate the New York Mets, who have struggled with injuries and inconsistency.
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Money Line
-110
100
Spread
170
(-1.5)
162
(-1.5)
⇗12.00
Featured Insight
The Tampa Bay Rays boast a solid pitching lineup that's been effective throughout the season, making them tough contenders. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles have shown impressive batting depth, regularly outperforming opponents.
Chicago White Sox
St. Louis Cardinals
Money Line
148
⇗2.00
-164
⇗2.00
Spread
-110
(1.5)
-105
(-1.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The game between the Chicago White Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals promises excitement. With the White Sox's strong hitters facing the Cardinals' resilient pitching, expect a thrilling matchup. Look for weather conditions that may impact the game.
This Week
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
Money Line
-146
133
Spread
144
(-1.5)
-157
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Chicago Cubs face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in a crucial matchup. Both teams showcase strong offenses, but the Brewers have a slight edge in the bullpen. With the Cubs' inconsistent pitching, the Brewers could capitalize in the later innings.
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
Money Line
120
-128
Spread
-144
(1.5)
133
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Texas Rangers boast a strong lineup with consistent performances, making them likely favorites against the Kansas City Royals. Kansas City's struggles in pitching and defense may be a disadvantage.
San Francisco Giants
Cleveland Guardians
Money Line
-128
⇗5.00
121
Spread
160
(-1.5)
-179
(1.5)
⇗4.00
Featured Insight
The San Francisco Giants face the Cleveland Guardians. The Giants struggle with consistency, relying heavily on their pitching roster. Offensively, they lack power hitters. Meanwhile, the Guardians have a balanced team with solid defense and a strong bullpen.
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
Money Line
145
-160
Spread
-112
(1.5)
⇗6.00
100
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Houston Astros, with a strong pitching lineup, are favored against the struggling Oakland Athletics. The Astros have a consistent record this season, while the Athletics face challenges in both offense and defense.
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Money Line
-196
176
Spread
105
(-1.5)
-115
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Dodgers have shown consistent results with strong home performance and a balanced lineup. The Padres, while occasionally struggling with consistency, bring a robust pitching rotation that can challenge the Dodgers' hitters.
Money Line
-109
-101
Spread
Featured Insight
The Cincinnati Reds face the Minnesota Twins in this MLB clash. The Reds boast a potent offense this season, led by their powerful lineup. Meanwhile, the Twins have shown consistency, particularly in their pitching department.
Money Line
-140
127
Spread
130
(-1.5)
-150
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The matchup between the Nationals and Rockies highlights the Nationals' strong batting lineup against the Rockies' struggling pitching staff. Nationals have better odds due to their recent form and home advantage.
Money Line
-228
204
Spread
-120
(-1.5)
100
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The New York Yankees face the Los Angeles Angels in a thrilling MLB match. The Yankees, powered by their strong batting lineup, aim to exploit the Angels' pitching vulnerabilities.
Money Line
122
-135
Spread
-140
(1.5)
120
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals game presents an intriguing matchup. The White Sox's offense has struggled recently, and their starting pitchers have been inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have shown stronger pitching depth.
Money Line
-110
100
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
With the Chicago Cubs facing the Milwaukee Brewers, consider recent form and head-to-head statistics. The Cubs have a strong home record, but the Brewers excel in pitching depth. Injuries could play a key role in the outcome. Check the lineup for absences.
Money Line
-140
127
Spread
140
(-1.5)
-160
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Toronto Blue Jays have a strong bullpen, which might give them an edge in close games. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been performing well with their bats lately. Watching the pitching matchups closely will be crucial, as both teams have dynamic offenses.
Money Line
-175
158
Spread
120
(-1.5)
-140
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The San Francisco Giants face the Cleveland Guardians in an anticipated MLB matchup. The Giants have a strong home advantage with a solid pitching lineup, while the Guardians boast a resilient offense.
Money Line
154
-170
Spread
-120
(1.5)
100
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Miami Marlins face the Philadelphia Phillies in an intriguing MLB matchup. The Marlins boast strong pitching depth, while the Phillies have powerful hitters. Watch for Miami's starting pitchers as key factors.
Money Line
-130
118
Spread
150
(-1.5)
-180
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Atlanta Braves have a strong lineup with consistent batting, making them favorites against the New York Mets. The Mets' pitching struggles recently could be a concern. Look for Braves players like Acuña Jr. and Olson to have significant impacts.
Money Line
-149
135
Spread
125
(-1.5)
-145
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Tampa Bay Rays are known for their strong pitching lineup, while the Baltimore Orioles have a powerful offense. When these teams face off, it's crucial to consider the starting pitchers and recent form.
Money Line
118
-130
Spread
-135
(1.5)
115
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Houston Astros are favorites against the Oakland Athletics due to their strong lineup and superior pitching staff. The Athletics, though underdogs, have shown potential in previous matchups.
Money Line
-230
206
Spread
-120
(-1.5)
100
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Los Angeles Dodgers face the San Diego Padres in a tightly contested NL West matchup. Dodgers, with solid pitching depth, hold a slight edge in the series. Watch for their power hitters to exploit the Padres' inconsistent bullpen.
Baseball MLB World Series Winner
Later
Competitor/Team
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
New York Mets
Detroit Tigers
Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Atlanta Braves
Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers
Boston Red Sox
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Guardians
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
Oakland Athletics
Miami Marlins
Chicago White Sox
Colorado Rockies
Quote
265
575
800
850
1300
1400
1600
2500
2500
3000
3500
3500
4000
4000
5000
5000
6600
6600
6600
7000
7000
15000
25000
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
100000
200000
Baseball NCAA Baseball
Today
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Louisville Cardinals
Money Line
-290
⇗10.00
900
⇗225.00
Spread
-115
(-2.5)
⇗220.00
120
(1.5)
Featured Insight
In the matchup between Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Louisville Cardinals, consider Coastal Carolina's strong batting lineup, as they consistently deliver high scores.
LSU Tigers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Spread
-150
(1.5)
140
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The MLB matchup between LSU Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks is generating interest from bettors. LSU's dynamic offense could pose challenges for Arkansas's pitching staff. Conversely, Arkansas boasts a strong defense, which may disrupt LSU's scoring opportunities.
Source of Data
The data this analysis is based on is from the Major League Baseball games played over the 2016 and 2017 seasons. I had to remove two games because of incomplete data. The total number of games this page is based on is 4,929.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors.
MLB Averages 2016-2017
| Item | Away | Home | Total1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 4.47 | 4.64 | 9.10 |
| Hits | 8.71 | 8.64 | 17.34 |
| Errors | 0.58 | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| Total | 13.76 | 13.87 | 27.61 |
Notes
1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding.
Money Line Bets
When it comes to betting money lines in baseball, or any sports bet for that matter, what is number of basis points, or "cents" between the lines of the two teams. For example, a 10-cent set of lines would be +120/-130 or +105/+105. Following is the theoretical house edge by number of cents in the lines, assuming the probability of each team winning is close to 50%.
- 10 cents: 2.38%
- 15 cents: 3.49%
- 20 cents: 4.55%
As of this writing (Sept. 20, 2018) here are which sports book groups offer which sets of money line bets in baseball.
- 10-cent lines: Westgate, William Hill, South Point, Stations, CG Technology, Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget, Boyd
- 15-cent lines: Stratosphere, Caesars, Wynn
- 20-cent lines: MGM/Mirage, Treasure Island
Home or Road Teams
I show money line bets on road teams perform slightly better than home teams. Here are the expected return for both:
- Road teams: 98.30%
- Home teams: 97.99%
I do not think this 0.3% difference is statistically significant.
Favorite or Underdog
Following is the expected return for both underdogs and favorites against a 10-cent line:
- Underdogs: 98.49%
- Favorites: 97.79%
Not surprisingly, the underdogs did better. This seems to be true in every American sport.
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Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the number of times the total runs was over, under, and exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the house edge, assuming a 20-cent line. Note that the house edge is 2.25% less on Under bets.
Over/Under Bets in MLB
| Outcome | Number | Probability | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 2315 | 46.97% | 5.45% |
| Under | 2373 | 48.14% | 3.20% |
| Push | 241 | 4.89% | |
| Total | 4929 | 100.00% |
Run Line Bets
Based on sets of 20-cent lines, I show the following expected returns:
- Underdog +1.5: 96.34%
- Favorite -1.5: 96.90%
I must say I'm surprised to see favorites outperform underdogs on the run line. This is not the case in the NHL on the puck line. The difference is fairly small at 0.64% so I would not trust the favorite side to continue to do better.\
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Internal Links
- Obscure Topics in Betting Major League Baseball — These are some tables I didn't bother to update when I updated this page with new data. Use the tables in this page, based on data from 2000 to 2009, with a grain of salt.
- Betting the NFL In-depth look at betting professional football.
- Betting the NBA In-depth look at betting professional basketball.
- Appendix 1 Comparative study on who has the best lines in Vegas.
- Appendix 2 Various topics in sports betting.
- Appendix 3 List of Las Vegas sports book families.
- Appendix 4 Fair prices to buy and sell points in the NFL.
- Appendix 5 Explores sports futures in greater depth.
- Appendix 6 Lost and expired tickets.
- Appendix 7 Companion to appendix 1, showing NFL money line pairs from several Internet sportbooks.
- Appendix 8 Comparitive study on who has the best lines offshore.
- Appendix 9 Companion to appendix 8, showing NFL money line pairs from offshore sportbooks.
- NFL Teasers.
- Total number of kickoffs in Super Bowl 43. Were there 9 or 10?
- Vegas sports book comparison at WizardOfVegas.com. Who offers what odds on parlays and teasers, as well as rebate percentages.