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Push 22
Introduction
Some blackjack variants, like Blackjack Switch and Free Bet Blackjack, have a rule that if the dealer draws to 22 points then all standing bets are a push. To cover this contingency, there is a side bet that wins if this happens. Said side bet pays 11 to 1 in this event.
The following table shows the probability of the dealer drawing to 22 points by number of decks and whether the dealer hits of stands on soft 17.
Probability of 22 Dealer 22 Points
| Decks | Hit Soft 17 | Stand Soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.073362 | 0.073630 |
| 2 | 0.073470 | 0.073168 |
| 3 | 0.073504 | 0.073020 |
| 4 | 0.073520 | 0.072947 |
| 5 | 0.073530 | 0.072903 |
| 6 | 0.073536 | 0.072874 |
| 7 | 0.073541 | 0.072853 |
| 8 | 0.073544 | 0.072838 |
The following table shows the expected value of the Push 22 bet, when it pays 11 to 1, by number of decks and whether the dealer hits of stands on soft 17.
Expected Value of Push 22 Bet
| Decks | Hit Soft 17 | Stand Soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -0.119658 | -0.116445 |
| 2 | -0.118357 | -0.121978 |
| 3 | -0.117954 | -0.123760 |
| 4 | -0.117757 | -0.124639 |
| 5 | -0.117642 | -0.125163 |
| 6 | -0.117565 | -0.125511 |
| 7 | -0.117511 | -0.125759 |
| 8 | -0.117471 | -0.125944 |
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For a finer breakdown of the probability of any given dealer total, please see my page on Dealer Probabilities (US Rules).