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Breakout Blackjack
Introduction
Breakout Blackjack is a blackjack variant in which the player may bet that the dealer wins. The game premiered in 2026 with placements including the Stratosphere in Las Vegas, where they use six decks and the dealer hits a soft 17.
Placements anticipated soon (as of this writing in June, 2026) are:
- The M in Las Vegas, NV
- Casa Blanca in Mesquite, Nevada.
- Virgin River in Mesquite, Nevada.
- Fortune Bay in Minnesota.
Rules
The following are the rules of the base game.
- The base game follows conventional blackjack rules, which are configurable by the operator.
- The player may bet on himself or the dealer. A bet on the dealer is known as a Breakout Blackjack wager.
- If the player bets on himself, the game plays as in conventional blackjack.
- If the player bets on the dealer, his own hand must be played out in the same way as the dealer -- hitting to a hard 17 or soft 18.
- There are also the following side bets -- Super Tie, Breakout Bonus, Sweet 17 and/or Pair Up Plus. These side bets are explained in more detail below.
- If any player makes a Breakout Blackjack wager, then the dealer hand will always be played out, even if all players already busted.
- If the player makes the Breakout Blackjack wager and the dealer gets a winning blackjack, then the wager shall pay 6-5 or 3-2, the same as what a winning player blackjack pays. Note this payout is configurable by the operator.
- In the event both player and dealer bust, then Breakout Blackjack wagers shall push.
- If the player has a total of 17 and the dealer busts, then Breakout Blackjack shall push.
- Otherwise, winning Breakout Blackjack wagers shall pay 1 to 1.
The Super Tie side bet pays if the player and dealer tie. Following is the pay table.
| Event | Pays | Dealer Tip |
|---|---|---|
| Both sides bust | 1 | $1 |
| 17 to 19 tie | 3 | $2 |
| 20 tie | 8 | $3 |
| 21 tie | 15 | $5 |
| BJ tie | 25 | $10 |
The Breakout Bonus side bet pays if the player and dealer both bust. Following is the pay table based on the total cards between the player and dealer hands.
| Total Cards | Pays |
|---|---|
| 6,7 | 5 |
| 8 | 15 |
| 9 | 30 |
| 10 | 100 |
| 11 | 150 |
| 12+ | 250 |
The Sweet 17 side bet pays if the dealer draws to 17. Following is the pay table. There is also an optional rule variant that pays 6 to 1 on a dealer 17.
| Event | Pays |
|---|---|
| Dealer 17 | 5 |
| Other | -1 |
The Pair Plus side bet pays if the player and/or dealer get a pair as their first two cards. Following is the pay table for the three versions indicated in the GLI math report.
| Event | Pay Table 1 | Pay Table 2 | Pay Table 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both have a suited pair | n/a | 50 | 250 |
| Both have a pair | n/a | 50 | 150 |
| Either has a suited pair | 8 | 5 | Loss |
| Either has a pair | 4 | 3 | Loss |
Analysis
I will dispense of analyzing a wager on the player as blackjack has already been extensively analyzed.
The following are the probabilities on the Breakout Blackjack wager, assuming six decks, blackjack pays 3-2 and the dealer hits a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 1.55%.
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack win | 1.5 | 0.045323 | 0.067984 |
| Other win | 1 | 0.327430 | 0.327430 |
| Push | 0 | 0.216340 | 0.000000 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.410907 | -0.410907 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.015493 |
The following are the probabilities on the Breakout Blackjack wager, assuming six decks, blackjack pays 6-5 and the dealer hits a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 2.91%.
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack win | 1.2 | 0.045323 | 0.054388 |
| Other win | 1 | 0.327430 | 0.327430 |
| Push | 0 | 0.216340 | 0.000000 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.410907 | -0.410907 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.029090 |
The following table shows my analysis the Super Tie wager, assuming six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 17.16%. The dealer tip is not considered in this analysis as the player gets no benefit from that (since the dealer's usually don't mention the rule to players and instead shake them down for a second tip).
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| BJ tie | 25 | 0.002167 | 0.054163 |
| 21 tie | 15 | 0.005582 | 0.083732 |
| 20 tie | 8 | 0.032844 | 0.262750 |
| 17 to 19 tie | 3 | 0.055987 | 0.167960 |
| Both sides bust | 1 | 0.081606 | 0.081606 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.821815 | -0.821815 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.171605 |
The following table shows my analysis the Sweet 17 wager when a win pays 5 to 1, assuming six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 21.71%.
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dealer 17 | 5 | 0.130477 | 0.652385 |
| Other | -1 | 0.869523 | -0.869523 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.217138 |
The following table shows my analysis the Sweet 17 wager when a win pays 6 to 1, assuming six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 8.67%.
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dealer 17 | 6 | 0.130477 | 0.782862 |
| Other | -1 | 0.869523 | -0.869523 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.086661 |
The following table shows my analysis of the Breakout Bonus wager, assuming six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 13.35%.
| Cards | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ | 250 | 0.000018 | 0.004545 |
| 11 | 150 | 0.000116 | 0.017453 |
| 10 | 100 | 0.000949 | 0.094894 |
| 9 | 30 | 0.004565 | 0.136940 |
| 8 | 15 | 0.015141 | 0.227111 |
| 6,7 | 5 | 0.060789 | 0.303946 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.918422 | -0.918422 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.133533 |
The following table shows my analysis of pay table 1 of the Pair Plus wager, assuming six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 16.02%.
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either has a suited pair | 8 | 74,114,820 | 0.031896 | 0.255164 |
| Either has a pair | 4 | 256,867,416 | 0.110544 | 0.442175 |
| Loss | -1 | 1,992,691,584 | 0.857561 | -0.857561 |
| Total | 2,323,673,820 | 1.000000 | -0.160222 |
The following table shows my analysis of pay table 2 of the Pair Plus wager, assuming six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 11.36%.
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both have a pair | 50 | 12,712,284 | 0.005471 | 0.273538 |
| Either has a suited pair | 5 | 69,189,120 | 0.029776 | 0.148879 |
| Either has a pair | 3 | 249,080,832 | 0.107193 | 0.321578 |
| Loss | -1 | 1,992,691,584 | 0.857561 | -0.857561 |
| Total | 2,323,673,820 | 1.000000 | -0.113566 |
The following table shows my analysis of pay table 3 of the Pair Plus wager, assuming six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 14.81%.
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both have a suited pair | 250 | 601,380 | 0.000259 | 0.064701 |
| Both have a pair | 150 | 12,110,904 | 0.005212 | 0.781795 |
| Loss | -1 | 2,310,961,536 | 0.994529 | -0.994529 |
| Total | 2,323,673,820 | 1.000000 | -0.148033 |
Demo
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Methodology
The vast majority of the analysis on this web site was performed by me. However, in this case, the game owner was kind enough to share the GLI math report with me, of which most of this analysis quotes from. The only exception is the Pair Plus side bet, which I analyzed myself and agree with GLI on the house edge of that.
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank Bill James, the owner of Breakout Blackjack, for sharing the math report by GLI with me for purposes of this page.