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Betting on the NBA
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Introduction
This page addresses betting on basketball, specifically the NBA. The figures in this pages are based on 6,567 historical games, from seasons beginning 2013 to 2017. It is assumed the reader knows basic sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, please visit my page on sports betting first.
Betting Against the Spread
On average, the home team wins 58.4% of the time and scores 2.70 more points than the road team. However, betting against the spread, I show road teams to be the much better value, as the following table shows. The table is based on laying 11 to win 10. The return column shows the expected percentage of money won (or lost when negative) to money bet. As you can see, betting home teams has a house edge of 6.22%, while road teams are only 2.70%.
Road or Home Team Against the Spread
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Road | 3,280 | 0.499467 | -0.026981 |
| Home | 3,159 | 0.481042 | -0.062157 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019491 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044569 |
The next table shows the results betting on underdogs and favorites against the spread. This does not include the 61 games where the point spread was zero. I was expecting underdogs to do significantly better, but the results proved me wrong — they did only slightly better. As you can see, the probability of the underdog winning was only 0.4% greater than favorites. The return shows the ratio of expected player win (negative indicates a loss) to money bet, assuming the player is laying 11 to win 10.
Underdog or Favorite Against the Spread
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 3,176 | 0.488165 | -0.048375 |
| Underdog | 3,202 | 0.492161 | -0.040746 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019674 | |
| Total | 6,506 | 1.000000 | -0.044560 |
Compare Online NBA Odds
Basketball Basketball Euroleague
Today
Money Line
-200
175
Spread
-110
(-4.5)
-110
(4.5)
Featured Insight
Crvena zvezda's home court advantage is significant, with a passionate fan base boosting team morale. However, Barcelona boasts a strong lineup with key players capable of turning the tide.
Money Line
-325
263
Spread
-105
(-8)
-105
(7.5)
Featured Insight
Panathinaikos hosts Valencia Basket in an exciting NBA matchup. Panathinaikos benefits from a home-court advantage and has a strong defensive strategy, making them favorites. Valencia, however, boasts a deep roster with versatile scorers.
Money Line
-110
-110
Spread
100
(-1)
-105
(-1)
Featured Insight
Saski Baskonia vs. Olimpia Milano is expected to be a tense match-up. Baskonia's strong home court record and tactical defense could give them an edge. Conversely, Milano's strategic offense and deep rotation make them formidable opponents.
Money Line
-175
⇗5.00
155
Spread
-105
(-4)
102
(3.5)
⇗2.00
Featured Insight
Virtus Segafredo Bologna is a strong team with a solid track record in European competitions. When playing against Dubai Basketball, they are likely favored. However, Dubai could pose a challenge with their athleticism.
Basketball NBA
This Week
Orlando Magic
Miami Heat
Money Line
-210
180
Spread
-110
(-5.5)
-110
(5.5)
Featured Insight
The Orlando Magic face the Miami Heat, known for their intense defense. Miami's home advantage and experience could be decisive. Orlando's young squad aims to counter with speed and enthusiasm.
Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Lakers
Money Line
-263
205
Spread
-110
(-7)
-110
(7)
Featured Insight
In this classic rivalry, the Boston Celtics' strong defensive abilities might give them an edge over the Los Angeles Lakers, who rely on star power. Boston's balanced offense can exploit L.A.'s defensive inconsistencies.
Detroit Pistons
Portland Trail Blazers
Money Line
-275
240
⇗40.00
Spread
-105
(-7.5)
⇗5.00
-105
(7)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The Detroit Pistons' youthful roster faces a challenging test against the Portland Trail Blazers, who rely heavily on veteran leadership. Key matchup: Pistons' defense versus Damian Lillard's prolific scoring. Betting trend shows Blazers performing well at home.
New York Knicks
Utah Jazz
Money Line
-1100
709
Spread
-110
(-15.5)
-105
(15)
Featured Insight
In the matchup between the New York Knicks and the Utah Jazz, consider the Knicks' recent offensive form and defensive strategies against the Jazz's dynamic playstyle. The key players' performances and home-court advantage could significantly influence outcomes.
Cleveland Cavaliers
San Antonio Spurs
Money Line
-195
175
Spread
-110
(-5)
-105
(5)
Featured Insight
Cleveland Cavaliers have a strong home record but face tough competition against the San Antonio Spurs. Keep an eye on Darius Garland, who could be a game-changer. The Spurs' young talent can surprise, with Devin Vassell being an emerging star.
Toronto Raptors
Charlotte Hornets
Money Line
-333
⇗39.00
280
Spread
-110
(-8.5)
-105
(8.5)
Featured Insight
The Toronto Raptors and Charlotte Hornets both have potential to perform well, but current form and injuries usually impact game outcomes. The Raptors often rely on their strong defense and star players. Meanwhile, the Hornets focus on fast-paced offense.
Atlanta Hawks
Denver Nuggets
Money Line
260
⇗10.00
-310
Spread
-105
(8)
-110
(-8.5)
Featured Insight
The Atlanta Hawks face a tough challenge against the Denver Nuggets. With Denver's strong home record, Atlanta's performance on the road will be crucial. Key players to watch include Trae Young for the Hawks and Nikola Jokic for the Nuggets.
Milwaukee Bucks
Philadelphia 76ers
Money Line
110
-130
Spread
-110
(2)
-110
(-2)
Featured Insight
The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers face off in what promises to be an exciting NBA matchup. The Bucks, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, boast a strong defense, while the 76ers counter with Joel Embiid's offensive prowess.
Chicago Bulls
Indiana Pacers
Money Line
-210
180
Spread
-110
(-5.5)
-110
(5.5)
Featured Insight
The Bulls vs. Pacers match-up is intriguing. The Bulls have strong defensive capabilities, but the Pacers excel in fast-paced offensive plays. Recent performances show the Bulls struggling with turnovers, which the Pacers could exploit.
Memphis Grizzlies
Los Angeles Clippers
Money Line
105
-125
Spread
-110
(2)
-110
(-2)
Featured Insight
The Memphis Grizzlies face the Los Angeles Clippers in an intriguing matchup. The Grizzlies have shown strong defensive capabilities, but the Clippers' offensive power, led by Kawhi Leonard, poses a threat.
Houston Rockets
Phoenix Suns
Money Line
-525
400
Spread
-105
(-11)
-110
(11)
Featured Insight
The Suns are typically strong contenders with a solid roster, making them favorites against the Rockets, who are in a rebuilding phase. Key players like Devin Booker and Kevin Durant give Phoenix an edge.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Dallas Mavericks
Money Line
-1050
686
Spread
-110
(-15)
-110
(15)
Featured Insight
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks: Expect a high-scoring game as both teams have strong offensive capabilities. Dallas has a home-court advantage, but the Thunder's young roster is full of energy.
Next Week
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Orlando Magic, known for their dynamic young roster, face the Miami Heat, a team with strong playoff aspirations. The Magic's strength lies in their speed and chemistry, while the Heat rely on experience and defensive prowess.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Raptors vs. Knicks matchup is intriguing with high stakes. The Raptors' strong defense will test the Knicks' shooting prowess. Watch for Pascal Siakam to play a vital role, while Julius Randle leads the Knicks.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Oklahoma City Thunder face off against the Phoenix Suns in an exciting matchup. The Suns have a strong lineup with star players likely to excel in this game, making them potential favorites.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Lakers and Spurs have distinct styles; Lakers rely on star power like LeBron James, while Spurs focus on teamwork. Lakers have a home-court advantage, and their recent form has been strong, making them favorites.
Basketball NBA Championship Winner
Later
Competitor/Team
Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets
Houston Rockets
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
Los Angeles Lakers
Golden State Warriors
Orlando Magic
Minnesota Timberwolves
Atlanta Hawks
San Antonio Spurs
Philadelphia 76ers
Detroit Pistons
Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Clippers
Milwaukee Bucks
Dallas Mavericks
Miami Heat
Toronto Raptors
Phoenix Suns
Chicago Bulls
Portland Trail Blazers
Indiana Pacers
Memphis Grizzlies
Sacramento Kings
Charlotte Hornets
Utah Jazz
New Orleans Pelicans
Washington Wizards
Brooklyn Nets
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Basketball NCAAB
Today
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Money Line
-385
⇗1,415.00
874
Spread
-110
(-14)
-110
(14)
Featured Insight
The UCSB Gauchos excel in their offensive strategy, focusing on quick transitions and accurate shooting. Long Beach St. 49ers rely heavily on defensive pressure, looking to capitalize on turnovers. Gauchos have the edge in recent head-to-head encounters.
UC Irvine Anteaters
UC Riverside Highlanders
Money Line
-1100
732
⇗71.00
Spread
-110
(-13.5)
-105
(13)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The upcoming match between UC Irvine Anteaters and UC Riverside Highlanders is expected to be a tight contest. UC Irvine has a strong defensive setup, while UC Riverside is known for its aggressive offense.
CSU Northridge Matadors
CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners
Money Line
-240
⇗30.00
210
⇗10.00
Spread
-115
(-5.5)
⇗1.00
-105
(5.5)
⇗1.00
Featured Insight
The CSU Northridge Matadors and the CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners face off in a competitive showdown. The Matadors, known for their defensive gameplay, could leverage their strong forward roster.
CSU Fullerton Titans
Cal Poly Mustangs
Money Line
125
⇗240.00
-103
Spread
-107
(-1)
-110
(1)
Featured Insight
Analyze the current form, injuries, and head-to-head records of the CSU Fullerton Titans and Cal Poly Mustangs. Consider factors such as home-court advantage and player matchups.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
UC Davis Aggies
Money Line
-490
390
Spread
-105
(-9)
-107
(9)
⇗2.00
Featured Insight
The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors have shown strong home performance, making them favorites against the UC Davis Aggies. The Aggies’ recent performances have been inconsistent, particularly in away games.
This Week
Marist Red Foxes
Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-9.5)
-105
(10)
Featured Insight
Marist Red Foxes and Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers are often closely matched, making this game intriguing for bettors. Marist's offense relies heavily on three-point shooting, which can be streaky. Mt. St. Mary's tends to focus on defense and controlling the pace.
VCU Rams
Samford Bulldogs
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-20)
-110
(20)
Featured Insight
The VCU Rams and Samford Bulldogs face off in an intriguing matchup. The Rams have a strong defense and are favored to win, but Samford's offense is capable of pulling off an upset. Key players to watch include VCU's leading scorer and Samford's top rebounder.
Siena Saints
Niagara Purple Eagles
Money Line
Spread
-105
(-14)
-110
(14)
Featured Insight
The Siena Saints taking on the Niagara Purple Eagles is an intriguing match-up. Siena's defense is solid, making them formidable opponents on the road. Meanwhile, Niagara's offensive tactics are unpredictable and can catch teams off guard.
Canisius Golden Griffins
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-8)
-105
(8)
⇗10.00
Featured Insight
The Saint Peter's Peacocks and Canisius Golden Griffins are set to face off in an intriguing matchup. Consider the Peacocks' strong defensive strategies and recent form. The Griffins, however, have a solid home record which could be beneficial.
East Tennessee St Buccaneers
South Alabama Jaguars
Money Line
Spread
-105
(-5.5)
-105
(5.5)
Featured Insight
East Tennessee St Buccaneers and South Alabama Jaguars have shown strong defenses this season. Both teams rely on fast-paced gameplay, which may lead to a high-scoring game. Home advantage could favor South Alabama, but the Buccaneers have a resilient squad.
Iona Gaels
Quinnipiac Bobcats
Money Line
Spread
-105
(-2.5)
⇗5.00
-110
(2.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The Iona Gaels have been strong this season, showcasing tight defense and consistent scoring. In contrast, the Quinnipiac Bobcats have struggled with their shooting accuracy, making them underdogs in this matchup.
Kentucky Wildcats
Money Line
Spread
-105
(5.5)
⇗5.00
-110
(-5.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The Kentucky Wildcats face the Gonzaga Bulldogs, a highly anticipated NCAA basketball game. Kentucky, known for its strong defense and fast-paced offense, will challenge Gonzaga's efficient scoring and balanced team play.
Manhattan Jaspers
Fairfield Stags
Money Line
Spread
-110
(1.5)
⇗5.00
-103
(-1.5)
⇗7.00
Featured Insight
The Manhattan Jaspers often rely on their defensive prowess, while the Fairfield Stags carry a balanced offensive mix. Key players like Ant Nelson for the Jaspers and Jake Wojcik for the Stags could be game-changers.
Xavier Musketeers
Cincinnati Bearcats
Money Line
Spread
-105
(-2)
⇗5.00
-105
(2)
Featured Insight
The Xavier Musketeers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats matchup brings a competitive edge to the court. Both teams are known for their dynamic playstyles and intense rivalry. Xavier's solid defense could be a tipping point, while Cincinnati's offensive strengths are crucial.
Drake Bulldogs
UAB Blazers
Money Line
Spread
-105
(-2)
-110
(2)
Featured Insight
In the NBA game between the Drake Bulldogs and UAB Blazers, the Bulldogs are known for their strong defense which might slow the pace. UAB's Blazers, however, are offensive maestros and could exploit any defensive gaps.
UConn Huskies
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-38.5)
-110
(38.5)
Featured Insight
The UConn Huskies, renowned for their strong defense and strategic plays, are likely favorites against the East Texas A&M Lions. UConn's consistent performance in past matchups makes them a formidable opponent.
TCU Horned Frogs
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Money Line
Spread
100
(-7.5)
-105
(7)
Featured Insight
The TCU Horned Frogs have been showing a strong defense, which could prove challenging for Notre Dame's offensive lineup. However, Notre Dame's recent track record indicates they have been formidable in away games.
San José St Spartans
San Diego Toreros
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-7)
-105
(7)
Featured Insight
The San José St Spartans face off against the San Diego Toreros in an enticing NBA matchup. The Spartans have shown resilience and strong defense, while the Toreros boast impressive scoring ability.
Purdue Boilermakers
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The game between Purdue Boilermakers and Iowa State Cyclones promises excitement. Purdue, known for its strong defense and efficient scoring, often capitalizes on opponents' mistakes.
Duke Blue Devils
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Duke Blue Devils are favored given their strong track record and higher-ranked recruits. Michigan State Spartans, known for their robust defense, can pose a challenge. Betting insights suggest considering the spread due to potential close margins.
Indiana Hoosiers
Louisville Cardinals
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Indiana Hoosiers and Louisville Cardinals are set for an exciting matchup. Indiana boasts strong defense and skilled players, while Louisville has a dynamic offense. Indiana's home-court advantage might be crucial, yet Louisville's recent form could surprise.
Tennessee Volunteers
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Tennessee Volunteers face the Illinois Fighting Illini in a much-anticipated NCAA matchup. Tennessee's strong defense, ranked among the top, will challenge Illinois' dynamic offense.
Arizona Wildcats
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
When analyzing the Arizona Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers matchup, consider each team's recent performance and injury status. Arizona's offensive strength could challenge Auburn's robust defense. However, Auburn's home-court advantage might play a crucial role.
Overs and Unders
The following table shows how often each game went over, under, and fell exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the ratio of player win to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10. Not surprisingly, the table shows betting the under side to be the slightly better value, with a probability of winning 0.21% higher than over bets.
Under or Over Against the Total
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 3,232 | 0.492158 | -0.051561 |
| Under | 3,246 | 0.494290 | -0.047084 |
| Push | 89 | 0.013553 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044839 |
Money Line
The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, assuming one unit is bet per game. The return shows that betting road teams is the better value, with an expected return 0.53% higher.
Money Line by Side
| Side | Total Bet | Total Return | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6,567 | 6,288.75 | -0.042371 |
| Road | 6,567 | 6,323.26 | -0.037115 |
| Total | 13,134 | 12,612.01 | -0.037115 |
The next table shows the expected return on money line bets, cut by whether the team is the underdog, favorite, or even. Surprisingly, to me at least, the table shows favorites to be the better value, with a return 0.46% higher.
Money Line by Favorite/Underdog
| Side | Total Bet | Total Return | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 6,506 | 6262.13 | -0.037483 |
| Underdog | 6,506 | 6232.14 | -0.042093 |
| Even | 122 | 117.74 | -0.034932 |
| Total | 13,134 | 12612.01 | -0.039743 |
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning by point spread. The estimated probability uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.
Probability of Winning by Point Spread
| Spread | Wins | Games | Actual Probability |
Estimated Probability |
Fair Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -15.5 | 26 | 24 | 0.923077 | 0.922718 | -1194 |
| -15 | 40 | 39 | 0.975000 | 0.916818 | -1102 |
| -14.5 | 44 | 38 | 0.863636 | 0.910510 | -1017 |
| -14 | 49 | 44 | 0.897959 | 0.903774 | -939 |
| -13.5 | 76 | 70 | 0.921053 | 0.896589 | -867 |
| -13 | 69 | 64 | 0.927536 | 0.888933 | -800 |
| -12.5 | 88 | 80 | 0.909091 | 0.880786 | -739 |
| -12 | 102 | 87 | 0.852941 | 0.872127 | -682 |
| -11.5 | 125 | 109 | 0.872000 | 0.862937 | -630 |
| -11 | 130 | 112 | 0.861538 | 0.853198 | -581 |
| -10.5 | 135 | 113 | 0.837037 | 0.842893 | -537 |
| -10 | 168 | 132 | 0.785714 | 0.832006 | -495 |
| -9.5 | 174 | 138 | 0.793103 | 0.820527 | -457 |
| -9 | 231 | 191 | 0.826840 | 0.808443 | -422 |
| -8.5 | 206 | 154 | 0.747573 | 0.795748 | -390 |
| -8 | 248 | 193 | 0.778226 | 0.782438 | -360 |
| -7.5 | 273 | 194 | 0.710623 | 0.768513 | -332 |
| -7 | 269 | 186 | 0.691450 | 0.753978 | -306 |
| -6.5 | 314 | 227 | 0.722930 | 0.738839 | -283 |
| -6 | 337 | 237 | 0.703264 | 0.723112 | -261 |
| -5.5 | 336 | 209 | 0.622024 | 0.706812 | -241 |
| -5 | 358 | 245 | 0.684358 | 0.689965 | -223 |
| -4.5 | 348 | 224 | 0.643678 | 0.672599 | -205 |
| -4 | 344 | 205 | 0.595930 | 0.654746 | -190 |
| -3.5 | 328 | 186 | 0.567073 | 0.636446 | -175 |
| -3 | 349 | 195 | 0.558739 | 0.617742 | -162 |
| -2.5 | 340 | 199 | 0.585294 | 0.598683 | -149 |
| -2 | 367 | 206 | 0.561308 | 0.579320 | -138 |
| -1.5 | 283 | 157 | 0.554770 | 0.559710 | -127 |
| -1 | 254 | 135 | 0.531496 | 0.539913 | -117 |
| 1 | 254 | 119 | 0.468504 | 0.460087 | 117 |
| 1.5 | 283 | 126 | 0.445230 | 0.440290 | 127 |
| 2 | 367 | 161 | 0.438692 | 0.420680 | 138 |
| 2.5 | 340 | 141 | 0.414706 | 0.401317 | 149 |
| 3 | 349 | 154 | 0.441261 | 0.382258 | 162 |
| 3.5 | 328 | 142 | 0.432927 | 0.363554 | 175 |
| 4 | 344 | 139 | 0.404070 | 0.345254 | 190 |
| 4.5 | 347 | 124 | 0.357349 | 0.327401 | 205 |
| 5 | 358 | 113 | 0.315642 | 0.310035 | 223 |
| 5.5 | 336 | 127 | 0.377976 | 0.293188 | 241 |
| 6 | 337 | 100 | 0.296736 | 0.276888 | 261 |
| 6.5 | 314 | 87 | 0.277070 | 0.261161 | 283 |
| 7 | 269 | 83 | 0.308550 | 0.246022 | 306 |
| 7.5 | 273 | 79 | 0.289377 | 0.231487 | 332 |
| 8 | 248 | 55 | 0.221774 | 0.217562 | 360 |
| 8.5 | 206 | 52 | 0.252427 | 0.204252 | 390 |
| 9 | 231 | 40 | 0.173160 | 0.191557 | 422 |
| 9.5 | 174 | 36 | 0.206897 | 0.179473 | 457 |
| 10 | 168 | 36 | 0.214286 | 0.167994 | 495 |
| 10.5 | 135 | 22 | 0.162963 | 0.157107 | 537 |
| 11 | 130 | 18 | 0.138462 | 0.146802 | 581 |
| 11.5 | 125 | 16 | 0.128000 | 0.137063 | 630 |
| 12 | 102 | 15 | 0.147059 | 0.127873 | 682 |
| 12.5 | 88 | 8 | 0.090909 | 0.119214 | 739 |
| 13 | 69 | 5 | 0.072464 | 0.111067 | 800 |
| 13.5 | 76 | 6 | 0.078947 | 0.103411 | 867 |
| 14 | 49 | 5 | 0.102041 | 0.096226 | 939 |
| 14.5 | 44 | 6 | 0.136364 | 0.089490 | 1017 |
| 15 | 40 | 1 | 0.025000 | 0.083182 | 1102 |
| 15.5 | 26 | 2 | 0.076923 | 0.077282 | 1194 |
In the unlikely event you encounter a point spread with an absolute value greater than 15.5, then the probability of winning can be estimated as e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s)), where s is the point spread.
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When I updated this page in 2018, there were a lot of obscure tables I was too lazy to update. However, I put too much effort into them at the time I made them to just throw them away. So, I split this off to Obscure Topics in Betting the NBA.