Split Aces

Introduction

Split Aces is a blackjack side bet I noticed at the Paris casino in Monaco in September 2022. It wins if the player's first card is an ace, with bigger wins for two aces, especially if they lead to blackjacks after splitting.

Rules

1. The bet is one Euro.
2. All wins are on a "for one" basis, meaning the player does not get his original bet back, even on a win.
3. If the player gets two aces and splits, then Split Aces wins are based on whether those original two hands after splitting lead to blackjacks. If an ace is drawn to one of the split aces, then that hand shall be deemed to have NOT improved to a blackjack. In other words, if re-splitting aces is allowed it will not affect the Splits Aces side bet, because the outcome is based on first card dealt to each ace and nothing more.
4. If the player's first card is an ace, and the second one isn't, then the Split Aces bet pays €2.
5. If the player's first two cards are both aces and either (1) player doesn't split or (2) player splits, resulting in zero or one blackjack, then the Split Aces bet pays €25.
6. If the player's first two cards are both aces, the players splits, and both aces improve to blackjacks, other than two ace/king blackjack, then the player shall win what I'll call the "Small Progressive." The Small Progressive shall be seeded at €500 and grow by 24.7% of money bet.
7. If the player's first two cards are both aces, the players splits, and both aces improve to ace/king blackjacks, other than two suited ace/king blackjack, then the player shall win what I'll call the "Medium Progressive." The Medium Progressive shall be seeded at €1000 and grow by 5.77% of money bet.
8. If the player's first two cards are both aces, the players splits, and both aces improve to suited ace/king blackjacks, then the player shall win what I'll call the "Large Progressive." The Large Progressive shall be seeded at €5000 and grow by 1.14% of money bet. Please note that while both ace/king blackjack must be suited, they don't need to be suited to each other.
9. At the Paris Casino, six decks were used.

Following is a summary of the pay table.

Analysis

The following table shows my analysis, based on six decks of cards. The pays for the progressive wins are mathematical averages, based on the seed and contribution rates indicated above.

The lower right cell shows an overall rate of return of 88.27%. In other words, the house edge is 11.73%. Of course, this is only an average and the rate of return at any given time will depend on how much money is in the progressives.