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Last Updated: January 4, 2023

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The 2023 National Football League Projected Draft Order as of 12/28/2022

Introduction

The Houston Texans as well as the Chicago Bears presently have the best chance to land the right to the top pick in the 2023 NFL draft. The 2 - 12 - 1 Houston Texans have an 87.4 % chance to get the top selection, and the 3 - 12 Chicago Bears have a 35.3 % chance.

There have already been six trades revolving around 1st - round picks for this April's NFL draft, with the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, and Philadelphia Eagles all in line to strategically have picks in Round - 1. The Miami Dolphins are stripped of their draft selection due to violations of NFL policies regarding to the integrity of the game of football, which is the reason why there are only 31 - picks in the 1st - round for 2023.

Each week during the current NFL season, the FPI projects the draft order by replicating the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 - times over. The game likelihoods are based principally on the model's ratings for the franchises in addition to the location of the game. The draft order is solely based on the team’s records in coordination with the model that believes that the teams will have following the 17 - games and the NFL playoffs. The NFC / AFC playoff landscape is not taken into consideration right now, and this is just the average draft position of the CPU simulations.

The Full 1 - 31 Projection for the 2023 NFL Draft

1. Houston Texans (2 - 12 - 1)

Average draft position: 1.7

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 54.8 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: Greater than 99.9 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: Greater than 99.9 %

2. Chicago Bears (3 - 12)

Average draft position: 2.5

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 35.3 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: 97.3 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: Greater than 99.9 %

3. Seattle Seahawks (via 4 - 11 DEN)

Average draft position: 2.9

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.7 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: 97.8 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: Greater than 99.9 %

4. Arizona Cardinals (4 - 11)

Average draft position: 3.8

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: 86.5 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: Greater than 99.9 %

5. Indianapolis Colts (4 - 10 - 1)

Average draft position: 2.1

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: 70.4 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: Greater than 99.9 %

6. Detroit Lions (via 5 - 10 LAR)

Average draft position: 6.8

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: 27.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 96 %

7. Atlanta Falcons (5 - 10)

Average draft position: 6.8

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: 18.3 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 99.4 %

8. Las Vegas Raiders (6 - 9)

Average draft position: 8.8

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: 1.2 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 85 %

9. Philadelphia Eagles (via 6 - 9 NO)

Average draft position: 9.8

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 70.7 %

10. Houston Texans (via 6 - 9 CLE)

Average draft position: 11.5

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 35 %

11. Carolina Panthers (6 - 9)

Average draft position: 12

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: 1.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 66.3 %

12. Tennessee Titans (7 - 8)

Average draft position: 13.7

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 14.5 %

13. New York Jets (7 - 8)

Average draft position: 14.9

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 0.8 %

14. New England Patriots (7 - 8)

Average draft position: 15

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 3.1 %

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (7 - 8)

Average draft position: 15.5

FPI chance to earn top - five pick: Less than 0.1 %

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 0.5 %

16. Seattle Seahawks (7 - 8)

Average draft position: 15.8

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 13.1 %

17. Washington Commanders (7 - 7 - 1)

Average draft position: 16.7

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 0.2 %

18. Detroit Lions (7 - 8)

Average draft position: 17.1

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 0.1 %

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7 - 8)

Average draft position: 17.9

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 11.1 %

20. Green Bay Packers (7 - 8)

Average draft position: 18.3

FPI chance to earn top - 10 pick: 0.1 %

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (7 - 8)

Average draft position: 20.2

22. New York Giants (8 - 6 - 1)

Average draft position: 21.8

23. Los Angeles Chargers (9 - 6)

Average draft position: 23.4

24. Baltimore Ravens (10 - 5)

Average draft position: 24.1

25. Minnesota Vikings (12 - 3)

Average draft position: 25.6

26. Cincinnati Bengals (11 - 4)

Average draft position: 25.8

27. Denver Broncos (via MIA / 11 - 4 SF)

Average draft position: 26.2

28. Dallas Cowboys (11 - 4)

Average draft position: 27.3

29. Kansas City Chiefs (12 - 3)

Average draft position: 28.1

30. Buffalo Bills (12 - 3)

Average draft position: 28.3

31. Philadelphia Eagles (13 - 2)

Average draft position: 28.9

Sources:

“2023 projected NFL draft order: Texans, Bears top first round”, espn.com, Wednesday, December 28, 2022.


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