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College Football Money Lines
Introduction
I rarely find what I believe to be a good bet on an underdog on the money line. The following chart shows the probability of winning by point spread, based on historical data (from 1983 to 2005).
The following table shows the actual data. The estimated probability of winning is based on smoothing out the ups and downs. The fair money line is based on the estimated probability of winning. This table does not factor in "key numbers" in the NFL. In other words, some margin of victories are much more likely than others, especially 3 and 7. It is a much bigger handicap to be given 3.5 points compared to 2.5, thus the 3.5-point underdog is going to have a significantly lower chance of winning compared to a 2.5-point underdog. I'll leave adjustment to the reader (sorry).
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
Today
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Cleveland Browns Kansas City Chiefs |
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-105 (4)
|
|
Chiefs are strong at home; Mahomes’ passing is key. Browns’ defense must disrupt timing. Watch for turnovers; they could swing momentum. Betting lines might favor Chiefs. Monitor injury reports. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
New York Giants Baltimore Ravens |
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Giants' defense strong; Ravens' offense dynamic. Giants' recent form inconsistent. Ravens favored due to superior roster and consistent performance. Close match expected. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Tennessee Titans Cincinnati Bengals |
205
|
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Key players, injury updates, and recent performance trends are crucial for informed betting. Consider defensive strength and offensive strategies for a comprehensive evaluation. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Houston Texans Miami Dolphins |
-145
|
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-110 (45.5)
|
Analyzing performance trends: Dolphins projected to dominate Texans. Key variables include passing efficiency and defensive fortitude. Consider Miami's home advantage and Texans' recent struggles against strong defenses. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets |
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-105 (3)
|
-105 (41)
⇗5.00 |
Jacksonville Jaguars show strong offensive play. New York Jets rely on defense. Expect a close game with potential turnovers. Key players: Lawrence and Wilson. Watch the weather impact. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
New Orleans Saints Washington Commanders |
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-105 (7.5)
|
|
The Saints' strong defense faces the Commanders' dynamic offense. Key matchup: Saints' pass rush vs. Commanders' O-line. Turnovers could decide the tight contest. |
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Sun Dec 15th 1pm
Carolina Panthers Dallas Cowboys |
-150
|
100 (-3)
|
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Cowboys favored with strong offense. Panthers face challenges in defense. Key players to watch: Dak Prescott (DAL), Sam Darnold (CAR). Turnover battle crucial. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills |
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The Buffalo Bills are favorites against the Detroit Lions. Consider player performance trends and injury reports before betting. Home field could provide an advantage, but Bills' offense is strong. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers |
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-110 (-5.5)
|
|
The Eagles have a strong offense, while the Steelers' defense is robust. Key players will impact the game's outcome. Consider both teams' recent performances and injury reports. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Los Angeles Chargers Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
100 (-3)
|
-110 (45.5)
|
The Chargers' strong offense faces Buccaneers' tough defense. Watch Herbert’s performance against Buccaneers' secondary. Key: turnovers and QB pressure. Both teams need a win for playoff contention. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Denver Broncos Indianapolis Colts |
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Expect a close game; Broncos' defensive strength will test Colts' offense. Key players include Russell Wilson for Broncos and Jonathan Taylor for Colts. Weather may influence the game's dynamics. |
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Sun Dec 15th 4pm
Arizona Cardinals New England Patriots |
|
|
-105 (46)
|
Consider Patriots' strong defense against Cardinals' inconsistent offense. Weather conditions may favor New England. Key injuries on both sides could impact game outcome. Monitor betting lines closely. |
Next Week
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 15th 8pm
Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers |
|
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-110 (46)
|
Seattle's strong defense meets Green Bay's potent offense. Key players could make or break the game, so watch starters' fitness. Weather conditions might also influence play outcomes significantly. |
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Mon Dec 16th 7pm
Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears |
|
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-110 (43.5)
|
Minnesota Vikings' strong offense faces Bears' defensive challenges. Watch for turnovers; both teams struggle under pressure. Key players could swing odds. Weather may impact game dynamics. Underdogs have potential. |
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Mon Dec 16th 7pm
Las Vegas Raiders Atlanta Falcons |
210
|
-110 (5.5)
|
|
The Raiders' strong offense meets the Falcons' shaky defense. Expect a high-scoring game with potential turnovers. Betting on the over could be wise. |
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Thu Dec 19th 8pm
Los Angeles Chargers Denver Broncos |
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Chargers strong passing game vs Broncos solid defense. Broncos struggle in offense, home advantage. Watch Herbert's performance, injuries impact both teams. Consider Chargers' recent form, betting within responsible limits. |
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Sat Dec 21st 1pm
Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans |
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Kansas City Chiefs possess a stronger roster and home advantage, making them favorites against Houston Texans, despite Texans' potential for an upset. |
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Sat Dec 21st 4pm
Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
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-105 (46)
|
Ravens and Steelers rivalry is intense. Ravens’ offense is strong but inconsistent. Steelers' defense is tough. Key factors: turnovers and home-field advantage. Both teams have passionate fanbases. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals |
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Expect an intense matchup. Panthers aim to dominate with McCaffrey, while Cardinals rely on Murray's agility. Defensive strategies will be crucial. Watch for turnovers impacting game flow. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Atlanta Falcons New York Giants |
-240
|
-110 (-9.5)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
The Falcons' offense is strong, but their defense struggles. Giants show solid defense, but lack offensive consistency. Look for turnovers and QB performance to be key factors. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Buffalo Bills New England Patriots |
-430
|
-110 (-13)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Buffalo's strong offense faces Patriots' resilient defense. Key players: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs vs. Mac Jones, Matthew Judon. Consider home advantage, weather, and recent form for placing bets. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Chicago Bears Detroit Lions |
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|
|
The Bears' defense struggles against high-powered offenses. Lions have a potent passing game, making them favored. Weather conditions could influence play. Monitor any injuries for impact on betting lines. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans |
-205
|
-105 (-4.5)
|
-110 (42)
|
Colts and Titans have a strong rivalry. Colts excel in passing; Titans dominate the ground game. Key matchup: Colts’ defense vs. Derrick Henry. Weather could impact passing plays. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
New York Jets Los Angeles Rams |
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Jets rely on solid defense; Rams boast a stronger offense. Watch for quarterback matchups. Possible low-scoring game. Special teams could decide. Bet cautiously. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Washington Commanders Philadelphia Eagles |
158
|
-105 (3)
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Eagles are favored with strong offense. Commanders need defensive strategy. Key player performance could shift odds. Watch for turnovers and special teams impact. Betting line fluctuates with injuries. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns |
|
-105 (-6)
|
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Consider the Bengals' strong offense against the Browns' defense. Check injury reports. Weather could affect gameplay. Recent head-to-head statistics and home-field advantage are pivotal for betting decisions. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Seattle Seahawks Minnesota Vikings |
|
-110 (2)
|
-110 (45)
|
Seahawks' strong offense clashes with Vikings' tight defense. Key players: Wilson, Cook. Home advantage favors Vikings. Monitor weather conditions. Bet cautiously, as both teams show unpredictable performances. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Las Vegas Raiders Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
-110 (-1)
|
-110 (39.5)
|
Las Vegas Raiders boast a strong offense while Jaguars' defense shows resilience. Monitor line movement and injury reports. Raiders slightly favored, expect a close game with potential high scoring. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Miami Dolphins San Francisco 49ers |
|
-110 (-1.5)
|
-110 (49)
|
The Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers face off in a close matchup. Evaluate recent performance, injuries, and weather conditions before placing your bets. Home advantage favors the 49ers. |
Next Month
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 22nd 8pm
Dallas Cowboys Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Cowboys' strong offense faces Buccaneers' solid defense. Key players and turnovers will likely decide the game's outcome. Watch for momentum shifts in crucial moments. |
|
Mon Dec 23rd 8pm
Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints |
-240
|
|
-110 (42)
|
Green Bay Packers may face challenges against New Orleans Saints due to strong Saints defense. Key players to watch: Aaron Rodgers and Alvin Kamara. Weather could impact play strategies. |
To find the fair money line on a favorite, just multiply by -1. For example, a 7-point underdog shows an estimated probability of winning of 30.2%, which corresponds to a fair money line of +231. Thus, a 7-point favorite would have a 69.8% chance of winning, for a fair money line of -231.
Probability of Winning in the NFL by Point Spread
| Spread | Wins | Loses | Actual Probability | Estimated Probability | Fair Money Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 472 | 944 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100 |
| 1.5 | 132 | 284 | 46.5% | 45.5% | 120 |
| 2 | 141 | 280 | 50.4% | 44.1% | 127 |
| 2.5 | 164 | 376 | 43.6% | 42.6% | 135 |
| 3 | 246 | 540 | 45.6% | 41.1% | 143 |
| 3.5 | 134 | 358 | 37.4% | 39.7% | 152 |
| 4 | 135 | 337 | 40.1% | 38.3% | 161 |
| 4.5 | 93 | 259 | 35.9% | 36.9% | 171 |
| 5 | 74 | 213 | 34.7% | 35.5% | 182 |
| 5.5 | 101 | 294 | 34.4% | 34.1% | 193 |
| 6 | 109 | 343 | 31.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
| 6.5 | 121 | 383 | 31.6% | 31.5% | 217 |
| 7 | 146 | 493 | 29.6% | 30.2% | 231 |
| 7.5 | 84 | 332 | 25.3% | 29.0% | 245 |
| 8 | 73 | 243 | 30.0% | 27.8% | 260 |
| 8.5 | 67 | 227 | 29.5% | 26.6% | 276 |
| 9 | 62 | 225 | 27.6% | 25.5% | 293 |
| 9.5 | 64 | 250 | 25.6% | 24.3% | 311 |
| 10 | 79 | 320 | 24.7% | 23.3% | 330 |
| 10.5 | 43 | 210 | 20.5% | 22.2% | 350 |
| 11 | 56 | 217 | 25.8% | 21.2% | 372 |
| 11.5 | 38 | 142 | 26.8% | 20.2% | 395 |
| 12 | 37 | 179 | 20.7% | 19.3% | 419 |
| 12.5 | 38 | 176 | 21.6% | 18.4% | 445 |
| 13 | 42 | 237 | 17.7% | 17.5% | 472 |
| 13.5 | 42 | 210 | 20.0% | 16.6% | 501 |
| 14 | 56 | 328 | 17.1% | 15.8% | 532 |
| 14.5 | 28 | 194 | 14.4% | 15.0% | 565 |
| 15 | 19 | 157 | 12.1% | 14.3% | 599 |
| 15.5 | 20 | 123 | 16.3% | 13.6% | 636 |
| 16 | 22 | 171 | 12.9% | 12.9% | 675 |
| 16.5 | 14 | 144 | 9.7% | 12.2% | 717 |
| 17 | 29 | 239 | 12.1% | 11.6% | 761 |
| 17.5 | 17 | 134 | 12.7% | 11.0% | 808 |
| 18 | 8 | 121 | 6.6% | 10.4% | 858 |
| 18.5 | 6 | 89 | 6.7% | 9.9% | 910 |
| 19 | 18 | 142 | 12.7% | 9.4% | 966 |
| 19.5 | 10 | 83 | 12.0% | 8.9% | 1,026 |
| 20 | 9 | 136 | 6.6% | 8.4% | 1,089 |
| 20.5 | 12 | 109 | 11.0% | 8.0% | 1,156 |
| 21 | 10 | 138 | 7.2% | 7.5% | 1,227 |
| 21.5 | 4 | 94 | 4.3% | 7.1% | 1,303 |
| 22 | 5 | 128 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 1,383 |
| 22.5 | 7 | 71 | 9.9% | 6.4% | 1,468 |
| 23 | 7 | 115 | 6.1% | 6.0% | 1,558 |
| 23.5 | 5 | 76 | 6.6% | 5.7% | 1,654 |
| 24 | 6 | 122 | 4.9% | 5.4% | 1,756 |
| 24.5 | 3 | 68 | 4.4% | 5.1% | 1,864 |
| 25 | 5 | 62 | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1,978 |
| 25.5 | 2 | 61 | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2,100 |
| 26 | 1 | 78 | 1.3% | 4.3% | 2,229 |
| 26.5 | 4 | 55 | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2,366 |
| 27 | 1 | 79 | 1.3% | 3.8% | 2,512 |
| 27.5 | 2 | 56 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2,666 |
| 28 | 6 | 93 | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2,830 |
| 28.5 | 2 | 41 | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3,004 |
| 29 | 1 | 52 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3,189 |
| 29.5 | 1 | 38 | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3,385 |
| 30 | 1 | 52 | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3,594 |
| 30.5 | 3 | 33 | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3,815 |
| 31 | 2 | 58 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4,049 |