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College Football Money Lines

Introduction

I rarely find what I believe to be a good bet on an underdog on the money line. The following chart shows the probability of winning by point spread, based on historical data (from 1983 to 2005).

 

The following table shows the actual data. The estimated probability of winning is based on smoothing out the ups and downs. The fair money line is based on the estimated probability of winning. This table does not factor in "key numbers" in the NFL. In other words, some margin of victories are much more likely than others, especially 3 and 7. It is a much bigger handicap to be given 3.5 points compared to 2.5, thus the 3.5-point underdog is going to have a significantly lower chance of winning compared to a 2.5-point underdog. I'll leave adjustment to the reader (sorry).

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Thu Sep 5th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - baltimore-ravens

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-145
-105 (-3) -107 (46.5)
Fri Sep 6th 7pm Philadelphia Eagles - green-bay-packers -115 100 (-1.5) -107 (48.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Chicago Bears - tennessee-titans

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-195
103 (-4)

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-105 (43.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - washington-commanders -185 -105 (-4) -105 (41.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Buffalo Bills - arizona-cardinals

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-310
-105 (-7) -105 (48.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - pittsburgh-steelers -148 105 (-3) -107 (43)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm New Orleans Saints - carolina-panthers -205 -105 (-5) -105 (40.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - new-england-patriots -400 -105 (-9) -105 (43.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - houston-texans 110 -105 (2.5) -105 (48.5)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm Miami Dolphins - jacksonville-jaguars

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-175
-105 (-3.5) -102 (49)
Sun Sep 8th 1pm New York Giants - minnesota-vikings -112 -105 (-1) -107 (41.5)
Sun Sep 8th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - las-vegas-raiders -170 -102 (-3.5) -107 (43.5)
Sun Sep 8th 4pm Cleveland Browns - dallas-cowboys

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105
100 (1) -107 (44)
Sun Sep 8th 4pm Seattle Seahawks - denver-broncos -205 -105 (-5) -105 (42.5)
Sun Sep 8th 7pm Detroit Lions - los-angeles-rams

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-165
-106 (-3.5) -107 (51)
Sun Sep 8th 8pm Miami Dolphins - buffalo-bills -110 (-1.5) -110 (51.5)
Mon Sep 9th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - new-york-jets

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-225
-105 (-5) -107 (45)
Mon Sep 9th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - new-york-jets -230 -105 (-6) -105 (45.5)
Thu Sep 12th 8pm Miami Dolphins - buffalo-bills -108 -110 (-1) -105 (51.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Baltimore Ravens - las-vegas-raiders -340 -109 (-8) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Carolina Panthers - los-angeles-chargers 185 -110 (5) -110 (41.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - cleveland-browns -110 -105 (-1) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Dallas Cowboys - new-orleans-saints -250 -109 (-6) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Detroit Lions - tampa-bay-buccaneers -250 -110 (-6) -109 (49)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Green Bay Packers - indianapolis-colts -192 -108 (-4) -108 (47)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - san-francisco-49ers 235 -109 (6.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm New England Patriots - seattle-seahawks 130 100 (2.5) -110 (42.5)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Washington Commanders - new-york-giants -135 100 (-3) -107 (43)
Sun Sep 15th 1pm Tennessee Titans - new-york-jets 154 -109 (3.5) -109 (44.5)
Sun Sep 15th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-rams 118 -107 (2.5) -108 (48.5)
Sun Sep 15th 4pm Kansas City Chiefs - cincinnati-bengals -192 -101 (-3.5) -105 (48.5)
Sun Sep 15th 4pm Denver Broncos - pittsburgh-steelers 130 -108 (3) -110 (41.5)
Sun Sep 15th 8pm Houston Texans - chicago-bears -170 -109 (-4) -109 (46.5)
Mon Sep 16th 8pm Philadelphia Eagles - atlanta-falcons -166 -105 (-3.5) -110 (48.5)
Thu Sep 19th 8pm New York Jets - new-england-patriots -320 -110 (-7.5) -110 (42)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Indianapolis Colts - chicago-bears -130 -110 (-2) -108 (47)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Cleveland Browns - new-york-giants -240 -108 (-6.5) -108 (42.5)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - denver-broncos -160 -110 (-3.5) -110 (43)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Tennessee Titans - green-bay-packers 175 -110 (3.5) -110 (44)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Minnesota Vikings - houston-texans 180 100 (3.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - los-angeles-chargers -125 -110 (-2) -108 (42.5)
Sun Sep 22nd 1pm New Orleans Saints - philadelphia-eagles 143 -110 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - carolina-panthers -185 -110 (-4) -110 (43)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Seattle Seahawks - miami-dolphins 122 -110 (2) -110 (49)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Arizona Cardinals - detroit-lions 160 -110 (4) -108 (50)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Dallas Cowboys - baltimore-ravens -112 -105 (-1) -110 (48)
Sun Sep 22nd 4pm Los Angeles Rams - san-francisco-49ers 192 100 (2.5) -108 (49)
Sun Sep 22nd 8pm Atlanta Falcons - kansas-city-chiefs 158 -110 (3) -110 (49)
Mon Sep 23rd 7pm Buffalo Bills - jacksonville-jaguars -190 -110 (-4.5) -110 (49)
Mon Sep 23rd 8pm Cincinnati Bengals - washington-commanders -278 -115 (-7) -110 (48)
Thu Sep 26th 8pm New York Giants - dallas-cowboys 210 -110 (4) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - new-orleans-saints -185 -110 (-4) -108 (44.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Carolina Panthers - cincinnati-bengals 196 100 (5) -108 (46)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Chicago Bears - los-angeles-rams -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (47)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm New York Jets - denver-broncos -240 -110 (-6) -110 (42.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Green Bay Packers - minnesota-vikings -218 -110 (-5) -108 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Houston Texans - jacksonville-jaguars -175 -108 (-3.5) -110 (47.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - pittsburgh-steelers -110 -110 (-0.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Sep 29th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - philadelphia-eagles 158 -110 (2) -110 (47)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - washington-commanders -135 -112 (-2.5) -108 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - new-england-patriots -600 -110 (-11.5) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - cleveland-browns 120 -110 (2.5) -108 (43.5)
Sun Sep 29th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - kansas-city-chiefs 152 100 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Sep 29th 8pm Baltimore Ravens - buffalo-bills -155 -110 (-3) -110 (47.5)
Mon Sep 30th 7pm Miami Dolphins - tennessee-titans -270 -110 (-6.5) -110 (46)
Mon Sep 30th 8pm Detroit Lions - seattle-seahawks -245 -110 (-6) -110 (49)
Thu Oct 3rd 8pm Atlanta Falcons - tampa-bay-buccaneers -160 -115 (-3) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 6th 8am Minnesota Vikings - new-york-jets 175 -112 (4) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - baltimore-ravens -120 -110 (-1.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Houston Texans - buffalo-bills -125 -110 (-1.5) -110 (48)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Chicago Bears - carolina-panthers -218 -108 (-5.5) -108 (42)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Washington Commanders - cleveland-browns 158 -105 (3) -108 (43.5)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - indianapolis-colts -142 -110 (-2.5) -108 (47)
Sun Oct 6th 1pm New England Patriots - miami-dolphins 205 -110 (4.5) -110 (45)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - arizona-cardinals -425 -110 (-9.5) -110 (47)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm Denver Broncos - las-vegas-raiders -112 -105 (-1) -110 (41)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - green-bay-packers -130 -112 (-1.5) -108 (48.5)
Sun Oct 6th 4pm Seattle Seahawks - new-york-giants -160 -110 (-3.5) -108 (43)
Sun Oct 6th 8pm Pittsburgh Steelers - dallas-cowboys 122 -108 (1.5) -110 (43)
Mon Oct 7th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - new-orleans-saints -355 -110 (-8) -110 (44.5)
Thu Oct 10th 8pm Seattle Seahawks - san-francisco-49ers 196 -110 (5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 8am Chicago Bears - jacksonville-jaguars -106 -115 (1) -105 (45.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Green Bay Packers - arizona-cardinals -210 -110 (-5) -108 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Baltimore Ravens - washington-commanders -355 -110 (-8) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Philadelphia Eagles - cleveland-browns -148 -108 (-3) -108 (45.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm New England Patriots - houston-texans 175 -110 (4.5) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm Tennessee Titans - indianapolis-colts 105 -108 (1.5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Oct 13th 1pm New Orleans Saints - tampa-bay-buccaneers -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (43)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Denver Broncos - los-angeles-chargers 122 -110 (2) -110 (43)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - pittsburgh-steelers -105 -112 (1) -110 (42)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - detroit-lions -110 -110 (-0.5) -110 (48.5)
Sun Oct 13th 4pm Carolina Panthers - atlanta-falcons 154 -108 (3.5) -108 (44)
Sun Oct 13th 8pm New York Giants - cincinnati-bengals 196 -110 (4.5) -108 (45)
Mon Oct 14th 8pm New York Jets - buffalo-bills -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (47.5)
Thu Oct 17th 8pm New Orleans Saints - denver-broncos -180 -110 (-3.5) -110 (42.5)
Sun Oct 20th 8am Jacksonville Jaguars - new-england-patriots -260

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-114 (-6.5)
-110 (42.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - seattle-seahawks -175 -108 (-3.5) -110 (48)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Buffalo Bills - tennessee-titans -340 -120 (-7) -112 (47.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Cleveland Browns - cincinnati-bengals -108 -115 (1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - detroit-lions 158 100 (3) -108 (48)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Green Bay Packers - houston-texans -130 -108 (-2.5) -110 (48.5)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - miami-dolphins -105 -110 (1) -110 (49)
Sun Oct 20th 1pm New York Giants - philadelphia-eagles 196 -110 (4) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 20th 3pm San Francisco 49ers - kansas-city-chiefs -124 -110 (-2) -110 (49)
Sun Oct 20th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - las-vegas-raiders -192 -110 (-4) -110 (46)
Sun Oct 20th 4pm Washington Commanders - carolina-panthers -155 -110 (-3) -110 (42)
Sun Oct 20th 8pm Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-jets -105 -110 (1) -110 (43)
Mon Oct 21st 8pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - baltimore-ravens 185 -108 (5) -110 (46)
Mon Oct 21st 9pm Arizona Cardinals - los-angeles-chargers -118 -110 (-1) -110 (45)
Thu Oct 24th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - minnesota-vikings -175 -108 (-3.5) -108 (45.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Cleveland Browns - baltimore-ravens -105 -110 (1) -110 (45.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Detroit Lions - tennessee-titans -310 -110 (-7) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Miami Dolphins - arizona-cardinals -245 -110 (-6) -110 (47)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - atlanta-falcons -115 -112 (-1) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Washington Commanders - chicago-bears 110 -108 (2) -110 (44.5)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - green-bay-packers -105 -110 (1) -110 (46)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm Houston Texans - indianapolis-colts -198 -110 (-4) -108 (48)
Sun Oct 27th 1pm New England Patriots - new-york-jets 180 -110 (4.5) -110 (41.5)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Seattle Seahawks - buffalo-bills 124 -115 (3) -110 (46.5)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - new-orleans-saints -155 -110 (-3) -110 (44)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Denver Broncos - carolina-panthers -135 -110 (-2.5) -110 (42)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Cincinnati Bengals - philadelphia-eagles -155 -108 (-3) -110 (47.5)
Sun Oct 27th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - kansas-city-chiefs 205 -110 (5) -110 (47)
Sun Oct 27th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - dallas-cowboys -210 -110 (-5.5) -110 (46)
Mon Oct 28th 8pm Pittsburgh Steelers - new-york-giants -185 -110 (-4) -110 (42.5)
Thu Oct 31st 8pm New York Jets - houston-texans -142 100 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Atlanta Falcons - dallas-cowboys -105 -110 (1) -110 (48)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Baltimore Ravens - denver-broncos -500 -110 (-10.5) -110 (43)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Buffalo Bills - miami-dolphins -155 -110 (-3) -110 (51)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Carolina Panthers - new-orleans-saints 100 -108 (1) -110 (40.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - las-vegas-raiders -310 -112 (-7) -108 (45)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Cleveland Browns - los-angeles-chargers -170 -120 (-3) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Minnesota Vikings - indianapolis-colts -110 -105 (-1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm Tennessee Titans - new-england-patriots -142 -120 (-2.5) -110 (41)
Sun Nov 3rd 1pm New York Giants - washington-commanders -125 -110 (-1.5) -110 (42)
Sun Nov 3rd 4pm Arizona Cardinals - chicago-bears -108 -115 (1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 4pm Green Bay Packers - detroit-lions -125 -110 (-1.5) -110 (49)
Sun Nov 3rd 4pm Seattle Seahawks - los-angeles-rams 105 -110 (1.5) -108 (46.5)
Sun Nov 3rd 8pm Philadelphia Eagles - jacksonville-jaguars -185 -105 (-3.5) -108 (47)
Mon Nov 4th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - tampa-bay-buccaneers -355 -120 (-7) -110 (47)
Thu Nov 7th 8pm Baltimore Ravens - cincinnati-bengals -155 -110 (-3) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 10th 7am Carolina Panthers - new-york-giants 112 -110 (1) -108 (42.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm New Orleans Saints - atlanta-falcons 105 -108 (1.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - buffalo-bills 122 -110 (2) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Chicago Bears - new-england-patriots -225 -110 (-5.5) -110 (43)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Kansas City Chiefs - denver-broncos -410 -110 (-9) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - minnesota-vikings -162 -115 (-3) -108 (44.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Washington Commanders - pittsburgh-steelers 102 -110 (1.5) -108 (43.5)
Sun Nov 10th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - san-francisco-49ers 205 -108 (4) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 10th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - tennessee-titans -180 -110 (-4) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 10th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - new-york-jets 130 -110 (3) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 10th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - philadelphia-eagles -125 -110 (-2) -110 (48)
Sun Nov 10th 8pm Houston Texans - detroit-lions -115 -108 (-1) -110 (48.5)
Mon Nov 11th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - miami-dolphins -115 -110 (-1) -110 (47.5)
Thu Nov 14th 8pm Philadelphia Eagles - washington-commanders -278 -110 (-6.5) -110 (45.5)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - baltimore-ravens 130 -115 (3) -110 (43)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Chicago Bears - green-bay-packers -108 -102 (-1) -108 (44.5)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm New Orleans Saints - cleveland-browns 122 -110 (2) -110 (42)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Detroit Lions - jacksonville-jaguars -192 -110 (-4) -110 (50)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Miami Dolphins - las-vegas-raiders -250 -110 (-6) -110 (47)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm New England Patriots - los-angeles-rams 180 -110 (4) -110 (44.5)
Sun Nov 17th 1pm Tennessee Titans - minnesota-vikings -105 -112 (1) -110 (43.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm Denver Broncos - atlanta-falcons 142 100 (3) -110 (44.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - seattle-seahawks -355 -110 (-9) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm Buffalo Bills - kansas-city-chiefs 100 -102 (-1) -110 (46.5)
Sun Nov 17th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - cincinnati-bengals 110 -108 (2) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 17th 8pm New York Jets - indianapolis-colts -192 -110 (-4) -110 (46)
Mon Nov 18th 8pm Dallas Cowboys - houston-texans -155 -110 (-3) -108 (49)
Thu Nov 21st 8pm Cleveland Browns - pittsburgh-steelers -142 100 (-3) -108 (43.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Carolina Panthers - kansas-city-chiefs 278 100 (7) -110 (45.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Chicago Bears - minnesota-vikings -166 -120 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Washington Commanders - dallas-cowboys 158 -105 (3) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - detroit-lions 114 -108 (2.5) -108 (47.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Houston Texans - tennessee-titans -250 -110 (-6) -108 (46.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Miami Dolphins - new-england-patriots -355 -120 (-7) -110 (45)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm New York Giants - tampa-bay-buccaneers -105 -110 (1) -112 (44)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - denver-broncos -125 -110 (-3) -110 (42)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks 135 -110 (3) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Green Bay Packers - san-francisco-49ers 122 -110 (2.5) -110 (47)
Sun Nov 24th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - philadelphia-eagles -112 -110 (-0.5) -110 (47)
Mon Nov 25th 8pm Los Angeles Chargers - baltimore-ravens 135 -108 (2.5) -110 (47)
Thu Nov 28th 12pm Detroit Lions - chicago-bears -192 -108 (-4) -108 (50)
Thu Nov 28th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - new-york-giants -375 -110 (-8) -110 (45.5)
Thu Nov 28th 8pm Green Bay Packers - miami-dolphins -155 -110 (-3) -110 (48.5)
Fri Nov 29th 3pm Kansas City Chiefs - las-vegas-raiders -340 -120 (-7) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Minnesota Vikings - arizona-cardinals -120 -108 (-1.5) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Atlanta Falcons - los-angeles-chargers -135 -110 (-2.5) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - pittsburgh-steelers -218 -110 (-5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - houston-texans -112 -105 (-1) -110 (47)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm New England Patriots - indianapolis-colts 175 100 (2) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm New York Jets - seattle-seahawks -198 -110 (-4.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Washington Commanders - tennessee-titans -122 -110 (-1.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm Carolina Panthers - tampa-bay-buccaneers 105 -110 (2) -108 (43)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm New Orleans Saints - los-angeles-rams 105 -110 (1.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm Baltimore Ravens - philadelphia-eagles -190 -110 (-4) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 8pm Buffalo Bills - san-francisco-49ers 105 -110 (2) -110 (47)
Mon Dec 2nd 7pm Denver Broncos - cleveland-browns 150 -110 (3.5) -110 (43)
Thu Dec 5th 8pm Detroit Lions - green-bay-packers -155 -120 (-3) -110 (48)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - atlanta-falcons -102 -108 (1) -108 (45)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Philadelphia Eagles - carolina-panthers -355 -110 (-7.5) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - cleveland-browns -110 -102 (-1) -110 (43.5)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Tennessee Titans - jacksonville-jaguars 102 -110 (1.5) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - las-vegas-raiders -142 -120 (-3.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm Miami Dolphins - new-york-jets -130 -110 (-2) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 8th 1pm New York Giants - new-orleans-saints -110 -118 (1) -110 (41)
Sun Dec 8th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - seattle-seahawks -115 -108 (-1) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 8th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - buffalo-bills -105 -110 (1) -110 (48)
Sun Dec 8th 4pm San Francisco 49ers - chicago-bears -230 -110 (-5.5) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 8th 8pm Kansas City Chiefs - los-angeles-chargers -265 -110 (-6.5) -110 (44.5)
Mon Dec 9th 8pm Dallas Cowboys - cincinnati-bengals -118 -110 (-1) -110 (48.5)
Thu Dec 12th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - los-angeles-rams -270 -108 (-6.5) -108 (47)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Carolina Panthers - dallas-cowboys 225 -110 (6.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Cleveland Browns - kansas-city-chiefs 122 -120 (3) -108 (46.5)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm New York Giants - baltimore-ravens 225 -108 (6.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Tennessee Titans - cincinnati-bengals 170 -110 (4.5) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Houston Texans - miami-dolphins -142 -110 (-2.5) -110 (49.5)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - new-york-jets -105 -110 (1) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 15th 1pm New Orleans Saints - washington-commanders -148 -110 (-3) -108 (42)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - new-england-patriots -180 -110 (-3.5) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Detroit Lions - buffalo-bills -135 -110 (-2) -110 (50.5)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Denver Broncos - indianapolis-colts 120 -110 (2.5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - tampa-bay-buccaneers -145 -105 (-3) -110 (42.5)
Sun Dec 15th 4pm Philadelphia Eagles - pittsburgh-steelers -170 -120 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 15th 8pm Seattle Seahawks - green-bay-packers -102 -110 (1) -108 (47)
Mon Dec 16th 7pm Minnesota Vikings - chicago-bears -110 -115 (1) -110 (46)
Mon Dec 16th 7pm Las Vegas Raiders - atlanta-falcons -105 -110 (1) -108 (45.5)
Thu Dec 19th 8pm Cincinnati Bengals - cleveland-browns -180 -108 (-3.5) -110 (45.5)
Sat Dec 21st 1pm Kansas City Chiefs - houston-texans -205 -108 (-4.5) -110 (47)
Sat Dec 21st 4pm Baltimore Ravens - pittsburgh-steelers -238 -105 (-6) -110 (42.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Carolina Panthers - arizona-cardinals -102 -110 (1) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Atlanta Falcons - new-york-giants -198 -110 (-4.5) -108 (44.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Buffalo Bills - new-england-patriots -395 -110 (-8.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Chicago Bears - detroit-lions -108 -115 (1) -108 (47)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Indianapolis Colts - tennessee-titans -192 -110 (-4) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm New York Jets - los-angeles-rams -155 -110 (-3) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm Washington Commanders - philadelphia-eagles 175 -110 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Los Angeles Chargers - denver-broncos -185 -110 (-4) -110 (43)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Seattle Seahawks - minnesota-vikings -125 -110 (-2) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - jacksonville-jaguars -105 -115 (1) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 22nd 4pm Miami Dolphins - san-francisco-49ers -105 -110 (1) -110 (49)
Sun Dec 22nd 8pm Dallas Cowboys - tampa-bay-buccaneers -205 -110 (-4.5) -110 (46.5)
Mon Dec 23rd 8pm Green Bay Packers - new-orleans-saints -218 -110 (-5) -110 (45)
Wed Dec 25th 4pm Pittsburgh Steelers - kansas-city-chiefs 235 -108 (4) -105 (41.5)
Wed Dec 25th 8pm Houston Texans - baltimore-ravens 108 -110 (1.5) -108 (46.5)
Thu Dec 26th 8pm Chicago Bears - seattle-seahawks -175 -108 (-3.5) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Buffalo Bills - new-york-jets -142 -115 (-2.5) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - carolina-panthers -205 -108 (-5) -108 (43)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Minnesota Vikings - green-bay-packers 122 -108 (2) -108 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - tennessee-titans -192 -108 (-4) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm New Orleans Saints - las-vegas-raiders -155 -120 (-2.5) -110 (43)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Washington Commanders - atlanta-falcons 122 -110 (2) -110 (46)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - denver-broncos -375 -110 (-8) -110 (45.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm New York Giants - indianapolis-colts 110 -108 (2) -110 (43.5)
Sun Dec 29th 1pm New England Patriots - los-angeles-chargers 135 100 (2.5) -110 (41)
Sun Dec 29th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - arizona-cardinals -240 -108 (-6) -110 (48)
Sun Dec 29th 4pm Philadelphia Eagles - dallas-cowboys -135 -110 (-2) -110 (47)
Sun Dec 29th 8pm Cleveland Browns - miami-dolphins -130 -110 (-2) -110 (44.5)
Mon Dec 30th 8pm San Francisco 49ers - detroit-lions -205 -110 (-4.5) -108 (49.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Atlanta Falcons - carolina-panthers -278 -110 (-6.5) -110 (45.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Baltimore Ravens - cleveland-browns -205 -110 (-4.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm New England Patriots - buffalo-bills 150 -110 (3.5) -110 (44.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Green Bay Packers - chicago-bears -170 -120 (-3) -110 (46)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Pittsburgh Steelers - cincinnati-bengals -102 -110 (1) -108 (43.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Dallas Cowboys - washington-commanders -230 -110 (-5.5) -110 (46.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Detroit Lions - minnesota-vikings -245 -115 (-5.5) -110 (47)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Tennessee Titans - houston-texans 130 -110 (3) -110 (45)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - jacksonville-jaguars -130 -110 (-2) -108 (46.5)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm New York Jets - miami-dolphins -155 -110 (-3) -110 (45)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers - new-orleans-saints -135 -110 (-2.5) -108 (43)
Sun Jan 5th 1pm Philadelphia Eagles - new-york-giants -205 -110 (-5) -110 (43)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - san-francisco-49ers 164 -108 (4) -110 (43)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Denver Broncos - kansas-city-chiefs 160 -110 (4) -110 (42.5)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - los-angeles-chargers -105 -112 (1) -110 (43.5)
Sun Jan 5th 4pm Los Angeles Rams - seattle-seahawks -225 -108 (-5.5) -110 (47)

To find the fair money line on a favorite, just multiply by -1. For example, a 7-point underdog shows an estimated probability of winning of 30.2%, which corresponds to a fair money line of +231. Thus, a 7-point favorite would have a 69.8% chance of winning, for a fair money line of -231.

 

Probability of Winning in the NFL by Point Spread

Spread Wins Loses Actual Probability Estimated Probability Fair Money Line
0 472 944 50.0% 50.0% 100
1.5 132 284 46.5% 45.5% 120
2 141 280 50.4% 44.1% 127
2.5 164 376 43.6% 42.6% 135
3 246 540 45.6% 41.1% 143
3.5 134 358 37.4% 39.7% 152
4 135 337 40.1% 38.3% 161
4.5 93 259 35.9% 36.9% 171
5 74 213 34.7% 35.5% 182
5.5 101 294 34.4% 34.1% 193
6 109 343 31.8% 32.8% 205
6.5 121 383 31.6% 31.5% 217
7 146 493 29.6% 30.2% 231
7.5 84 332 25.3% 29.0% 245
8 73 243 30.0% 27.8% 260
8.5 67 227 29.5% 26.6% 276
9 62 225 27.6% 25.5% 293
9.5 64 250 25.6% 24.3% 311
10 79 320 24.7% 23.3% 330
10.5 43 210 20.5% 22.2% 350
11 56 217 25.8% 21.2% 372
11.5 38 142 26.8% 20.2% 395
12 37 179 20.7% 19.3% 419
12.5 38 176 21.6% 18.4% 445
13 42 237 17.7% 17.5% 472
13.5 42 210 20.0% 16.6% 501
14 56 328 17.1% 15.8% 532
14.5 28 194 14.4% 15.0% 565
15 19 157 12.1% 14.3% 599
15.5 20 123 16.3% 13.6% 636
16 22 171 12.9% 12.9% 675
16.5 14 144 9.7% 12.2% 717
17 29 239 12.1% 11.6% 761
17.5 17 134 12.7% 11.0% 808
18 8 121 6.6% 10.4% 858
18.5 6 89 6.7% 9.9% 910
19 18 142 12.7% 9.4% 966
19.5 10 83 12.0% 8.9% 1,026
20 9 136 6.6% 8.4% 1,089
20.5 12 109 11.0% 8.0% 1,156
21 10 138 7.2% 7.5% 1,227
21.5 4 94 4.3% 7.1% 1,303
22 5 128 3.9% 6.7% 1,383
22.5 7 71 9.9% 6.4% 1,468
23 7 115 6.1% 6.0% 1,558
23.5 5 76 6.6% 5.7% 1,654
24 6 122 4.9% 5.4% 1,756
24.5 3 68 4.4% 5.1% 1,864
25 5 62 8.1% 4.8% 1,978
25.5 2 61 3.3% 4.5% 2,100
26 1 78 1.3% 4.3% 2,229
26.5 4 55 7.3% 4.1% 2,366
27 1 79 1.3% 3.8% 2,512
27.5 2 56 3.6% 3.6% 2,666
28 6 93 6.5% 3.4% 2,830
28.5 2 41 4.9% 3.2% 3,004
29 1 52 1.9% 3.0% 3,189
29.5 1 38 2.6% 2.9% 3,385
30 1 52 1.9% 2.7% 3,594
30.5 3 33 9.1% 2.6% 3,815
31 2 58 3.4% 2.4% 4,049