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College Football Money Lines
Introduction
I rarely find what I believe to be a good bet on an underdog on the money line. The following chart shows the probability of winning by point spread, based on historical data (from 1983 to 2005).
The following table shows the actual data. The estimated probability of winning is based on smoothing out the ups and downs. The fair money line is based on the estimated probability of winning. This table does not factor in "key numbers" in the NFL. In other words, some margin of victories are much more likely than others, especially 3 and 7. It is a much bigger handicap to be given 3.5 points compared to 2.5, thus the 3.5-point underdog is going to have a significantly lower chance of winning compared to a 2.5-point underdog. I'll leave adjustment to the reader (sorry).
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 6th 8am | Minnesota Vikings - new-york-jets |
|
|
-110 (42)
|
| Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - baltimore-ravens |
|
|
-110 (48.5)
|
| Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Houston Texans - buffalo-bills |
|
|
-110 (47.5)
|
| Sun Oct 6th 1pm | New England Patriots - miami-dolphins |
115
⇗5.00
|
|
-110 (36.5)
|
| Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - indianapolis-colts |
|
|
-110 (45)
|
| Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Washington Commanders - cleveland-browns |
|
|
|
| Sun Oct 6th 1pm | Chicago Bears - carolina-panthers |
|
|
-110 (40)
|
| Sun Oct 6th 4pm | Denver Broncos - las-vegas-raiders |
|
|
-110 (36)
|
| Sun Oct 6th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - arizona-cardinals |
|
|
|
| Sun Oct 6th 4pm | Seattle Seahawks - new-york-giants |
|
|
|
| Sun Oct 6th 4pm | Los Angeles Rams - green-bay-packers |
|
|
|
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 6th 8pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - dallas-cowboys |
|
|
-110 (43.5)
|
| Mon Oct 7th 8pm | Kansas City Chiefs - new-orleans-saints |
|
-110 (-5.5)
|
-110 (43)
|
| Thu Oct 10th 8pm | Seattle Seahawks - san-francisco-49ers |
196
|
|
|
| Sun Oct 13th 8am | Chicago Bears - jacksonville-jaguars |
|
-110 (-1)
|
-110 (42.5)
|
| Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - indianapolis-colts |
|
-110 (1)
|
|
| Sun Oct 13th 1pm | New England Patriots - houston-texans |
|
|
-110 (40.5)
|
| Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Philadelphia Eagles - cleveland-browns |
-170
|
-110 (-7)
|
|
| Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Baltimore Ravens - washington-commanders |
|
-110 (-7)
|
-110 (49.5)
|
| Sun Oct 13th 1pm | Green Bay Packers - arizona-cardinals |
-210
|
-110 (-5.5)
|
-110 (49.5)
|
| Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - pittsburgh-steelers |
|
100 (2.5)
|
-105 (38)
|
| Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Denver Broncos - los-angeles-chargers |
135
|
|
-110 (37.5)
|
| Sun Oct 13th 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - detroit-lions |
|
|
-110 (52)
|
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 13th 8pm | New York Giants - cincinnati-bengals |
196
|
-110 (5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
To find the fair money line on a favorite, just multiply by -1. For example, a 7-point underdog shows an estimated probability of winning of 30.2%, which corresponds to a fair money line of +231. Thus, a 7-point favorite would have a 69.8% chance of winning, for a fair money line of -231.
Probability of Winning in the NFL by Point Spread
| Spread | Wins | Loses | Actual Probability | Estimated Probability | Fair Money Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 472 | 944 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100 |
| 1.5 | 132 | 284 | 46.5% | 45.5% | 120 |
| 2 | 141 | 280 | 50.4% | 44.1% | 127 |
| 2.5 | 164 | 376 | 43.6% | 42.6% | 135 |
| 3 | 246 | 540 | 45.6% | 41.1% | 143 |
| 3.5 | 134 | 358 | 37.4% | 39.7% | 152 |
| 4 | 135 | 337 | 40.1% | 38.3% | 161 |
| 4.5 | 93 | 259 | 35.9% | 36.9% | 171 |
| 5 | 74 | 213 | 34.7% | 35.5% | 182 |
| 5.5 | 101 | 294 | 34.4% | 34.1% | 193 |
| 6 | 109 | 343 | 31.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
| 6.5 | 121 | 383 | 31.6% | 31.5% | 217 |
| 7 | 146 | 493 | 29.6% | 30.2% | 231 |
| 7.5 | 84 | 332 | 25.3% | 29.0% | 245 |
| 8 | 73 | 243 | 30.0% | 27.8% | 260 |
| 8.5 | 67 | 227 | 29.5% | 26.6% | 276 |
| 9 | 62 | 225 | 27.6% | 25.5% | 293 |
| 9.5 | 64 | 250 | 25.6% | 24.3% | 311 |
| 10 | 79 | 320 | 24.7% | 23.3% | 330 |
| 10.5 | 43 | 210 | 20.5% | 22.2% | 350 |
| 11 | 56 | 217 | 25.8% | 21.2% | 372 |
| 11.5 | 38 | 142 | 26.8% | 20.2% | 395 |
| 12 | 37 | 179 | 20.7% | 19.3% | 419 |
| 12.5 | 38 | 176 | 21.6% | 18.4% | 445 |
| 13 | 42 | 237 | 17.7% | 17.5% | 472 |
| 13.5 | 42 | 210 | 20.0% | 16.6% | 501 |
| 14 | 56 | 328 | 17.1% | 15.8% | 532 |
| 14.5 | 28 | 194 | 14.4% | 15.0% | 565 |
| 15 | 19 | 157 | 12.1% | 14.3% | 599 |
| 15.5 | 20 | 123 | 16.3% | 13.6% | 636 |
| 16 | 22 | 171 | 12.9% | 12.9% | 675 |
| 16.5 | 14 | 144 | 9.7% | 12.2% | 717 |
| 17 | 29 | 239 | 12.1% | 11.6% | 761 |
| 17.5 | 17 | 134 | 12.7% | 11.0% | 808 |
| 18 | 8 | 121 | 6.6% | 10.4% | 858 |
| 18.5 | 6 | 89 | 6.7% | 9.9% | 910 |
| 19 | 18 | 142 | 12.7% | 9.4% | 966 |
| 19.5 | 10 | 83 | 12.0% | 8.9% | 1,026 |
| 20 | 9 | 136 | 6.6% | 8.4% | 1,089 |
| 20.5 | 12 | 109 | 11.0% | 8.0% | 1,156 |
| 21 | 10 | 138 | 7.2% | 7.5% | 1,227 |
| 21.5 | 4 | 94 | 4.3% | 7.1% | 1,303 |
| 22 | 5 | 128 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 1,383 |
| 22.5 | 7 | 71 | 9.9% | 6.4% | 1,468 |
| 23 | 7 | 115 | 6.1% | 6.0% | 1,558 |
| 23.5 | 5 | 76 | 6.6% | 5.7% | 1,654 |
| 24 | 6 | 122 | 4.9% | 5.4% | 1,756 |
| 24.5 | 3 | 68 | 4.4% | 5.1% | 1,864 |
| 25 | 5 | 62 | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1,978 |
| 25.5 | 2 | 61 | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2,100 |
| 26 | 1 | 78 | 1.3% | 4.3% | 2,229 |
| 26.5 | 4 | 55 | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2,366 |
| 27 | 1 | 79 | 1.3% | 3.8% | 2,512 |
| 27.5 | 2 | 56 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2,666 |
| 28 | 6 | 93 | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2,830 |
| 28.5 | 2 | 41 | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3,004 |
| 29 | 1 | 52 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3,189 |
| 29.5 | 1 | 38 | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3,385 |
| 30 | 1 | 52 | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3,594 |
| 30.5 | 3 | 33 | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3,815 |
| 31 | 2 | 58 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4,049 |