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Last Updated: July 10, 2020

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Oscar's Grind Betting System

Introduction

Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.

Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to losing. It also does not escalate the bet size as fast as these other systems, making it more of a "grind" to achieve the winning goal. This causes the chances of reaching the winning goal to be less than more aggressive systems, but also allows the player to play longer and at a smaller average bet.

Overall, Oscar's Grind will tend to win in a streaky game and do badly in a choppy game.

Rules

The following is how to play Oscar's Grind on even money bets.

  1. The player will choose a winning goal and bankroll.
  2. A one-unit bet shall be equal to the winning goal.
  3. The player makes a one-unit bet.
  4. If the player loses or ties, then he repeats the same bet*.
  5. If the player wins, then he increases he next bet by one unit**.
  6. The player keeps repeating until he either reaches his winning goal or blows his entire bankroll.

Footnotes:
*: If the player doesn't have enough money to repeat the same bet, then he bets as much he can.
**: If winning the next bet would cause the player to overshoot his winning goal, then he reduces his bet to his winning goal minus his current balance.

Here is my flowchart of how to play. Start in the upper left square. Click on image for larger version.

Oscar's Grind Flowchart

Simulation Results

To show what to expect from using Oscar's Grind, I wrote a simulation that followed the rules above, based on various bets and games. The simulation used a Mersenne Twister random number generator. For each simulation, the winning goal was ten units. I tested the simulation on the following bankrolls: 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 units.

The first simulation is based on betting the Player bet in baccarat. The simulation size is over 37 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the Player bet is 1.235%.

Baccarat Simulation — Player Bet

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 90.17% 95.65% 97.69% 98.77% 99.46%
Average number of bets 4.736 5.697 6.230 6.646 7.067
Average units bet 6.626 10.609 14.557 19.609 28.650
Expected win per session -0.082 -0.131 -0.180 -0.242 -0.354
Ratio money lost to Money bet 1.234% 1.235% 1.236% 1.235% 1.235%

The first simulation is based on betting the pass bet in craps. The simulation size is over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%.

Craps Simulation — Pass Bet

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 90.14% 95.63% 97.67% 98.76% 99.45%
Average number of bets 4.289 5.161 5.645 6.024 6.409
Average units bet 6.001 9.616 13.205 17.804 26.051
Expected win per session -0.085 -0.136 -0.187 -0.252 -0.368
Ratio money lost to Money bet 1.413% 1.414% 1.414% 1.414% 1.413%

The next simulation is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.364%.

Craps Simulation — Don't Pass

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 90.14% 95.64% 97.68% 98.76% 99.46%
Average number of bets 4.410 5.307 5.805 6.193 6.589
Average units bet 6.171 9.887 13.574 18.296 26.768
Expected win per session -0.084 -0.135 -0.185 -0.250 -0.365
Ratio money lost to Money bet 1.364% 1.364% 1.364% 1.364% 1.364%

The next simulation is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2.703%.

Roulette Simulation — Single Zero

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 89.40% 95.11% 97.29% 98.49% 99.28%
Average number of bets 4.381 5.327 5.871 6.314 6.789
Average units bet 6.156 10.059 14.074 19.418 29.545
Expected win per session -0.166 -0.272 -0.380 -0.525 -0.799
Ratio money lost to Money bet 2.703% 2.702% 2.703% 2.702% 2.703%

The next simulation is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 2/38 = 5.263%.

Roulette Simulation — Double Zero

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 87.81% 93.93% 96.39% 97.81% 98.81%
Average number of bets 4.567 5.670 6.350 6.944 7.646
Average units bet 6.468 10.982 15.945 23.026 37.824
Expected win per session -0.340 -0.578 -0.839 -1.212 -1.991
Ratio money lost to Money bet 5.263% 5.264% 5.262% 5.264% 5.264%

Video

Here is my video on Oscar's Grind.

Internal Links

External Links

Discussion about Oscar's Grind in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.


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