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Last Updated: July 10, 2020

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Oscar's Grind Betting System

Introduction

Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.

Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to losing. It also does not escalate the bet size as fast as these other systems, making it more of a "grind" to achieve the winning goal. This causes the chances of reaching the winning goal to be less than more aggressive systems, but also allows the player to play longer and at a smaller average bet.

Overall, Oscar's Grind will tend to win in a streaky game and do badly in a choppy game.

Rules

The following is how to play Oscar's Grind on even money bets.

  1. The player will define his winning goal and bankroll.
  2. The player shall define his "unit size" equal to his winning goal.
  3. The player makes a one-unit bet.
  4. If the player ties, then he repeats the same bet.
  5. Otherwise, if the last bet results is a win and the player has achieved his winning goal, then he walks away happy.
  6. Otherwise, if the player wins but has not achieved his winning goal, then he increases his bet size by one unit.*/**
  7. Otherwise, the player keeps the bet size the same.**
  8. The player bets.
  9. Go back to rule 4, until the player either achieves his winning goal or loses his entire bankroll.

*: If such an increase in bet would cause the player to overshoot his winning goal if he wins, then drop the bet size to whatever would result in achieving exactly the winning goal the next bet.
**: If the player does not have enough money to make the next bet, then drop the bet size to whatever money the player has left.

Simulation Results

To show what to expect from using Oscar's Grind, I wrote a simulation that followed the rules above, based on various bets and games. The simulation used a Mersenne Twister random number generator. For each simulation, the winning goal was ten units. I tested the simulation on the following bankrolls: 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 units.

The first simulation is based on betting the Player bet in baccarat. The simulation size is over 37 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the Player bet is 1.235%.

Baccarat Simulation — Player Bet

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 90.17% 95.65% 97.69% 98.77% 99.46%
Average number of bets 4.736 5.697 6.230 6.646 7.067
Average units bet 6.626 10.609 14.557 19.609 28.650
Expected win per session -0.082 -0.131 -0.180 -0.242 -0.354
Ratio money lost to Money bet 1.234% 1.235% 1.236% 1.235% 1.235%

The first simulation is based on betting the pass bet in craps. The simulation size is over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%.

Craps Simulation — Pass Bet

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 90.14% 95.63% 97.67% 98.76% 99.45%
Average number of bets 4.289 5.161 5.645 6.024 6.409
Average units bet 6.001 9.616 13.205 17.804 26.051
Expected win per session -0.085 -0.136 -0.187 -0.252 -0.368
Ratio money lost to Money bet 1.413% 1.414% 1.414% 1.414% 1.413%

The next simulation is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.364%.

Craps Simulation — Don't Pass

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 90.14% 95.64% 97.68% 98.76% 99.46%
Average number of bets 4.410 5.307 5.805 6.193 6.589
Average units bet 6.171 9.887 13.574 18.296 26.768
Expected win per session -0.084 -0.135 -0.185 -0.250 -0.365
Ratio money lost to Money bet 1.364% 1.364% 1.364% 1.364% 1.364%

The next simulation is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2.703%.

Roulette Simulation — Single Zero

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 89.40% 95.11% 97.29% 98.49% 99.28%
Average number of bets 4.381 5.327 5.871 6.314 6.789
Average units bet 6.156 10.059 14.074 19.418 29.545
Expected win per session -0.166 -0.272 -0.380 -0.525 -0.799
Ratio money lost to Money bet 2.703% 2.702% 2.703% 2.702% 2.703%

The next simulation is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 2/38 = 5.263%.

Roulette Simulation — Double Zero

Statistic 10 Units 25 Units 50 Units 100 Units 250 Units
Probability winning goal reached 87.81% 93.93% 96.39% 97.81% 98.81%
Average number of bets 4.567 5.670 6.350 6.944 7.646
Average units bet 6.468 10.982 15.945 23.026 37.824
Expected win per session -0.340 -0.578 -0.839 -1.212 -1.991
Ratio money lost to Money bet 5.263% 5.264% 5.262% 5.264% 5.264%

Video

Here is a temporary video showing an example of how to play Oscar's Grind.

Internal Links

External Links

Discussion about Oscar's Grind in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.


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