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Online Gaming - Specific Casinos, Software, and Games

According to your blackjack software tables, both the Unified Gaming and Boss Media systems give the player a slight edge. If this is so, how can the casinos that use these software systems turn a profit? Is it because relatively few players use basic strategy and/or good money management techniques?

trekon3

Online casinos are not the only ones to offer positive expectation games. Using basic strategy some Las Vegas casinos offer games with a negative house edge. There are video poker games all over the country with a positive expectation assuming optimal strategy. The reason the casinos can afford to do this is that the vast majority of players make errors in strategy. As someone who has played hundreds of hours of blackjack in casinos all over the U.S., I seldom see other players playing proper basic strategy. Money management has nothing to do with it.

Congratulations on a great site. While I usually play blackjack in Atlantic City, basic strategy only, sometime I like to try my luck on Caribbean Stud Poker. I know about the odds in AC (from reading your articles in Casino Player magazine), but with different payoffs on some of the online casinos, are the odds any better or worse online?

S from Silver Spring, Maryland

Good question. I checked out four casinos using Microgaming, Starnet, Cryptologic, and BossMedia software. Starnet uses the conventional rules. Cryptologic and BossMedia each pay 200 to 1 on a royal flush as opposed to 100 to 1. Microgaming has the following paytable.

Microgaming Paytable

Hand Payoff
Royal flush 999 to 1
Straight flush 199 to 1
Four of a kind 99 to 1
Full house 14 to 1
Flush 9 to 1
Straight 5 to 1
Three of a kind 3 to 1
Two pair 1 to 1
Pair 1 to 1
Ace/King 1 to 1


Note that Microgaming pays even money only on a two pair, but is more generous on everything higher. The following table displays the house edge for each kind of software assuming optimal strategy. Note that Starnet calls the game Cyberstud Poker and the rest call it Caribbean Poker.

House Edge For Each Kind of Software Assuming Optimal Strategy

Software House Edge
Microgaming 5.01%
Cryptologic 5.21%
BossMedia 5.21%
Starnet 5.22%

What is the best site to play free online blackjack?

Heather from Alma

Bovada has lots of games you can play for fun, including blackjack. No account required, just one click and you're in. Just go to the Instant Play casino and then then click "practice" for blackjack.

Great Site! Clearly the Wizard rules! I am an avid fan of playing some of the free online casino games. My current favorite is "quick draw" poker with a growing jackpot on gamesville.com.

First, could you recommend the best strategy for this game? If you assess the rules, players are allowed 17 hands, and may bet 0, 1, 2, 5, and 10 points a hand. The object is to increase your original point value of 150 to 500 in the 17 hands. Second, could you recommend other free sites, and the best strategies?

Phil from Goleta, California

I see from your e-mail address you are with U.C. Santa Barbara. That is where I went to college. BA in mathematics/economics, class of ’88. For a fellow Gaucho, I spent about an hour playing this game, to hopefully help you out. I got up to 426 points one round. For the benefit of other readers the game in question has 17 rounds of jacks-or-better video poker, with a much different pay table than found in the casinos. Most notably a high pair pays 2:1 and two pair pays 4:1.

With the generous pay table of this game, the player should bet the maximum unless the cards are total garbage. With garbage, the expected return is about 0.7X money bet. With a single high card, the return is 0.94X money bet. With a low pair, the return is 1.53X money bet. Betting the maximum on a single high card may sound like a bad bet but in this game you need to be aggressive. Towards the end, the player should bet the maximum, even on garbage, because a long shot is the only hope to get 500. I would not sacrifice pairs for 4 to a straight or flush. It will likely take getting a 4 of a kind at some point to get the 500.

Using your basic strategy for Cryptologic, what is the probability of winning five units before losing 20. If I played everyday for a year, getting out after winning five units or losing 20 units, what can I expect my net to be?

Bert from Richmond, Virginia

There was a similar question asked in the June 15 column, which I worked out in detail. However, briefly, I estimate the answer to be about 78%. Over a year, you could expect to lose 0.52% (the house edge) of the total initial bets.

In your experience, which sites actually pay their affiliates for traffic. Am especially interested in Unified Gaming 10% deposit/lifetime. Thanks.

Kevin from Bay, St. Louis, U.S.

I used to be a Gambler's Palace and Sportbet affiliate, as well as some other Unified Gaming casinos. Both Gambler's Palace and Sportbet seemed to pay me on a regular basis. These two had the most prominent positions on my site at the time. However, it was hard to tell from which casino I was being paid. They all issued checks though the Bank of Nevis, without any details about from who or why you were getting the check. Checks based on my own gambling winnings also came without explanation from the Bank of Nevis, making things even more confusing to keep track of.

I want to play blackjack at Lasseters Casino. They use Access software, whose rules are an infinite number of decks, split any pair and re-split once, double on any two cards, double after split and European hole card rule, and dealer stands on soft 17. Please supply me with the relevant Basic Strategy chart. Thank you.

Peter from Hemel Hempstead, United Kingdom

Here is my Lasseter's basic strategy.

I found (and played at) two casinos that offer free cash for creating a real account. There is no purchase required. The two I found were 7 Sultans ($10) and Geisha Lounge. Are there any others like this?

Jay S. from Columbia, U.S.

I have seen several free money offers like these. Two that come to mind are the Colosseum Casino and the Grand Opry Casino. Both of these offer $20 for free. Personally, I don't get too excited over these offers. It isn't worth the fuss of downloading the software and the hard disk space it takes up for only $20. However, I have played at the two casinos I mentioned because they also had a deposit bonus in addition to the free money.

The www.ccc-casino.com has no-zero roulette, which they call Super Chance Roulette. Are there any systems that would be effective since there is no zero? Without the zero could one effectively play both black and red at the same time, since there is no fear of the zero?

Jon M. from Danville, New Hampshire

I played it in practice mode and it seems to be a legitimate no-zero roulette wheel. There is no system that can either beat or lose to this game in the long run. The more you play the more the ratio of the net win to the total amount bet will get closer to zero.

Update: This casino has since closed.

I want to know the best blackjack strategy card for Gamblingsoftware. The Wizards of Odds page doesn't carry a table for this software, but the Java-based games here are becoming increasingly popular.

Nevin from Philippines

You can correctly use the Cryptologic basic strategy to play at a GamblingSoftware.com casino.

What can you tell me about Lasseters Online Casino? Have you or will you review it? I didn't see it in your list of online casinos.

Dennis from Lawton, USA

The only thing I know about Lasseters is that they are from Australia, and based on a presentation they did at an industry convention earlier this year, they are serious about setting a good example in the business. When I choose which casinos to try I give a priority to ones that advertise on my site or that have bonus incentives for the new player. Lasseters doesn't meet either or these criteria.

I recently won a VERY LARGE jackpot on an on-line casino, and immediately cashed out. The casino is now claiming that it will take them about three weeks to "audit" my account before they will process the payment. Once they begin processing the payment, it will take 5 to 10 business days before they send the funds to me. They will not pay more than $4,000 per week. Further, they are charging me $15 per $1,000 to perform a wire transfer to my bank account. Or, if I elect, they will charge $10 per $1,000 to mail me a check, which they claim takes 2 to 6 weeks to process. If I wish I can pay an additional $35 per check (remember checks are no greater than $4,000) to have the check FedEx'd to me. They never had much difficulty taking money from my credit card accounts. I am wondering if this is standard fare for on-line casinos... and if there is anyway around these delays and exorbitant charges?

Mike from California

I figured this was a Microgaming casino based on the fees for a payment. This is news to me so I called three Microgaming casinos to ask about it. The River Belle said they pay any jackpot in its entirety up front. The Golden Palace did as you describe, paying $4000 per week. The English Harbour pays $5000 per week. You have a legitimate complaint about paying the service fee on every payment, as well as the show payment processing time. Unfortunately, there is nothing you can do to change it. As I have said before, there is almost no regulation of most online casinos so they can do whatever they want.

Who has the best slot machine pay back rate on the net?

Frank from Steubenville, USA

As I work through the various kinds of software for reviews in Casino Player magazine, I am paying more attention to games I normally don't play. At this point, I can only report on three kinds of software as follows.

Microgaming: 95.67% (Based on actual returns at the Golden Palace while they used Microgaming software.)
Cryptologic: 92.42% (Based on actual returns at the Safari Casino. The Sands of the Caribbean and Inter Casino had similar returns.)
Real Time Gaming: 97.1% (Based on the theoretical return at Casino Merlin assuming maximum coins played. Other licensees may select from returns ranging from 95% to 98%.)

Just one more question today. In your introduction to your site, you make a big deal of losing in the long run at all games of chance. However, what is your opinion of playing tons of hands at Unified Gaming sites with the -0.57% house advantage? How realistic would it be to make $5.70 per hundred hands with $10 bets for a few hours a day? It would sure beat getting another part-time job:), even if I could only do it for a few months (while I'm finishing school at the U. of U.). The math seems correct even to me (a history major), yet I have this nagging feeling that I've left something unaccounted for, and this wishful thinking is just too good to be true. I'd appreciate your opinion.

Dave from Provo, USA

Your math is correct. For every 100 bets at $10 you make, you could expect to make $5.70 assuming you follow my basic strategy. Keep in mind this is a long-term return and in the short run you could easily lose. There is also a problem with broken connections with Unified Gaming casinos, which slows down the number of hands playable per hour. Somebody told me that turning off the sound card can take care of this problem. Whatever your gambling bankroll is, I would recommend dividing that by 100 and bet in those units. So to bet $10 a hand you should have $1000 to risk.

When playing online blackjack, how do you tell when the deck is shuffled? I play Microgaming casinos (which you report as using 1 deck), but I do not know if each time I play if it is a new deck, and there are no signs of knowing when the deck is shuffled.

Brian from State College, USA

Most online casinos shuffle after every hand. Others shuffle at random times but do not indicate exactly when to the player. I have noticed Microgaming casinos flash the word "shuffling" about one hand in four.

However, if you track the cards between these announcements you will sometimes see the same card twice, which is impossible in a single-deck game, assuming you believe them about when they shuffle. As far as I know, they actually shuffle after every hand, but for reasons I do not understand, only indicate a shuffle occasionally. If I remember correctly, Cryptologic casinos do indeed indicate when they are shuffling their eight-deck shoe.

Some internet casinos offer multi-player Caribbean stud poker. Do you think a team of determined players with good computers could beat the game? If a team were to occupy all five places at a table, they could see into half the deck. A computer could call the optimal play based on seeing 26 cards (5 per player plus the dealer's up card). Thanks again for the gambling advice -- I'm a long-standing fan.

Peter from Ottawa, Canada

Somebody else asked this is a past column. The book Finding the Edge presents a paper titled 'An Analysis of Caribbean Stud Poker' by Peter Griffin and John Gwynn Jr. There they state that if seven players colluded perfectly they would enjoy a 2.3% player advantage. However, they don't state what the edge would be in a five-player game. I suspect that the odds would swing back to the house.

I have two questions here. What is the house advantage on Battle Royale if a second tie wins 7 to 1? I am a Casino-on-net fan. What is the basic strategic for BJ? At some place it says they use 4 or 6 decks.

Dany from Montreal, Canada

For the benefit of those who don't know, Battle Royale is what Starnet calls Casino War. However Starnet pays 3 to 1 on the total amount bet. Perhaps what you mean to ask is what if they pay 7 for 1 on the original wager only, which would equate to the same thing. The house edge under these rules is 0.66%, as indicated in my Starnet review.

Casino on Net follows typical U.S. blackjack rules with the curious exception that if you split tens and draw an ace it pays 3:2 (I only know this because I saw it happen to another player in muli-player mode). However splitting tens is still a bad idea. The basis strategy is the same as for Cryptologic.

Wanted to know if you have ever played Vegas Palms. They use Microgaming for their blackjack. I have never seen such a streaky game. I have lost 18 out of 20 hands and 1 hour later won 23 out of 30. It seems that every time I play it turns out to be a streak one way or the other. I am just happy that I have had more winning streaks than losing streaks. I also like their Cyberstud Poker. It is close to Caribbean Stud, but I think the payouts are a little different (i.e. 2 pair is 2-1, but 3 of-a-kind is 4-1).

I have yet to have a losing session playing this game. Knock on wood! One hand I did lose. I would like to get you to figure the odds of it happening. I had a diamond flush king high and got beat by a spade flush ace high. What are the odds of 2 flushes in one had?

Bert from Richmond

I have never played at the Vegas Palms. However, I have a lot of faith in the fairness of Microgaming and believe that it is just chance you are having streaky games. Cyberstud poker is the same thing as Caribbean Stud Poker, with a slightly more generous pay table. The expected return is 5.01%, as opposed to the usual 5.22% with Caribbean Stud. The probability of two flushes is (4*(combin(13,5)-10)/combin(52,5)) * (3*(combin(13,5)-10)/combin(47,5)) = 1 in 203,725.

I noticed in your online review of casinos that you mentioned in Apolla that you played 438 units of blackjack and lost 98. Does this mean you played 438 hands and lost only 98? This is an awfully good ratio in favor of the player.

Peter from Orlando, Florida

I lost 98 units there overall. If every hand was an even money win or a loss then I would have won 170 hands and lost 268.

Realtime Gaming's Joker Poker has the huge payout for a sequential royal flush, which give the game a positive expected value. My question: is it ever optimum play to keep a 10,J or Q in the correct position for the sequential RF, in what would otherwise be a throwaway hand?

Denis from Rochester, New York

You should keep the 10, J, and Q in the right positions unless you have a pat straight flush or a deuce. The expected value of this hand is about 28 times your bet, depending on the discards.

At Casino on Net, the new version software now offers a "double" and "half double" option after a win in video poker. The player loses on a tie. What is the house edge on these two options.

Jon from Danville, New Hampshire

The house edge, based on the money wagered, is 5.88%. Either way the house edge is 5.88% but with the half double you are only betting half as much. I would advise declining this bet.

Are there any Internet casinos with looses dueces wild and which casino has the best payouts for dueces wild. Thank you.

Mike from Montana

Atlantic Interbet has full pay deuces wild (return of 100.77%). I think their highest coinage is 50 cents in that game.

I won recently at eWorld Casino. They said they would send a payment Western Union 6 days after I withdrew it. It has now been 7 days and every time I call their support line they tell me they don’t know when they payment will be made. Should I worry? What should I do?

David from New York, US

First let me say that eWorld is okay as far as I know. I’ve played them and had no problems. I’m think they will pay you and this is just ordinary inconvenience most players suffer with. Unfortunately Internet casinos in general are not known for paying winners quickly. I’ve seen the range myself from 3 days (Net Club) to 33 days (Casino on Air) of those times I kept track. I would say 2 weeks is about average. After two weeks I would ask about it every 3-5 days until they pay. Perhaps they will tire of the nagging and expedite the payment. Don’t get threatening or abusive until it seems there is no other hope. I would wait until 45-60 days have gone by before getting to this stage. Once you do get tough they may shut off all communication. However if you feel things are hopeless give a final strongly worded warning. Wait a few days and then do your best to get some justice by warning others of your experience at the bulletin boards. This advice is not specific to eWorld but all Internet casinos. Keep in mind most of these casinos operate out the Caribbean and Central America where people take their sweet time to do anything.

I notice that all Boss Media multi-player casinos have a trend of dealer showing a face (10) the majority of the times, and other users complain about that as well. I figure that on average the dealer should show a face 4/13 of the times, does that make any sense? This is mostly while playing 1-3 hands vs the Dealer.

Jumbo from Canada

Although I address this kind of question in my FAQ and in past columns I’ll still comment. You need to give me some hard numbers to have this taken this seriously. For example if you played 1000 hands you would expect the dealer to have a 10 or face card up about 308 times. The probability of the actual number being within 50 of 308 is 99.93%. If you were outside of 50 then we could raise our eyebrows and if you were outside even more we could really get serious. However I can’t do much with "the majority." I indicate how to gather data a test for online cheating in my FAQ. Finally, I want to say that I strongly feel that Boss Media is playing a fair game.

You stated that Unified gaming used to have a player advantage a few months ago but no more. How did they change their software?

Janice from Muskego, Wisconsin

They used to allow early surrender against an ace.

I am playing blackjack with unified gaming software. They claim they do not shuffle after every hand especially in the six deck, yet I have never seen it stop to shuffle. When I called the company to ask they said it is indicated when shuffling but I have never seen anything written on the screen that it is shuffling. After playing for usually 45 minutes to an hour it does freeze up and one can not even use the exit..everything shuts down.

Janice from Muskego, Wisconsin

It is my understanding they shuffle after every hand in the single deck game. When I have played the six-deck game you can hear a shuffling sound and the bottom of the screen says "shuffling" from time to time. Perhaps you were only playing the single deck game. It seems like they do this at random times. The lost connection is a known annoyance with Unified Gaming software. I mention it myself in my review. Some people say if you disable your sound card it helps with this problem.

With correct playing strategy, do you know the break-even point on Microgaming’s "SUPAJAX" game? Thanks.

Michael from Erie, USA

The Crucial Casinos web site presents an analysis of this game, in which the writer claims the break even point is at $53,000. You can read all about it at www.crucialcasinos.com/progressive_slots/supajax.

Do you have or can you make up a basic strategy chart for Lasseters’s blackjack? I couldn’t find one on the internet.

Boyd from Canton, USA

Here you go...

Microgaming has a new blackjack game called "Lucky Sevens" where you get bonuses for having your first card a 7, first two cards 7’s, and first 3 cards 7’s. It also has a progressive pot which you win if you get all 3 7 of diamonds. The bad part is that you have to ante $1 for each hand. You have no choice on this if you play the game. My question is: at what size progressive jackpot does this become a positive expectation game. Thanks!

Bryan from Austin, Texas

Good question. "Triple Sevens Blackjack" is played with five decks with a $1 mandatory side bet. Following is the side bet return table, based on a meter of $41,227 (the amount on August 31, 2002).

Microgaming Triple Sevens Side Bet

Hand Permutations Probability Pays Return
1 seven 1238400 0.07128 5 for 1 0.3564
2 unsuited 7’s 72000 0.004144 25 for 1 0.103605
2 suited 7’s 19200 0.001105 50 for 1 0.055256
3 unsuited 7’s 6600 0.00038 250 for 1 0.094971
3 suited 7’s 180 0.00001 1000 for 1 0.01036
3 diamond 7’s 60 0.000003 41227 for 1 0.142377
Non-paying hand 16037280 0.923077 0 0
Total 17373720 1 0.76297

If the player splits two sevens the connectivity is lost and the player begins each hand with one seven for purposes of the side bet. The player should never split sevens in this game at low bet levels ($40 or less). The house edge on the side bet is 37.94%, less 3.45% for every $10,000 in the meter. When I checked at the Golden Tiger casino on August 31, 2002, the meter was at $41,227, for a return of 76.30%, or a house edge of 23.70%. For the side bet to have no house edge the meter would need to reach $109,862. This does not consider the 0.0057% cost of deviating from basic strategy by not splitting two sevens. Assuming the player is betting $2 on the blackjack hand (the minimum) the meter would need to reach $113,196 for the combined game to have no house edge.

Hi Wizard. In your opinion, which sites offer the best payouts regarding video poker? Also, which software do you prefer for video poker? Thank you kindly for always being there with your indispensable wealth of knowledge.

Barry from Brooklyn, New York

Two questions from Brooklyn in a row, what are the odds of that? The best video poker odds are with Microgaming and Real Time Gaming. It depends on your specific game of choice. Of these two I prefer the Real Time Gaming interface better.

Hello Professor, would it be possible for you to provide an optimal strategy for Crypto’s double bonus poker? Also, could you recommend a strategy generator that will create a near-optimal strategy for any video poker game with any paytable?

Jan from Ontario, Canada

There are two software programs that can produce near optimal strategies for almost any video poker game. One if Video Poker Strategy Master by Tom Ski and the other is Frugal Video Poker by Jean Scott. Winpoker 7.0 promises to offer this feature as well but as of this writing it is not out yet. I don’t like to give away too many video poker strategies for free because other experts have to make a living selling video poker software or strategy cards.

Are the on line casino baccarat games like a slot machine with the payout set at 98.8% or do they use a random chip? How would you be able to check that out? Wouldn’t it make a difference? Is there a casino you are sure uses a random chip? Thanks.

Haig

From what I know of the business the major software companies deal the cards in a fair and random way. I personally have examined the log files of Odds On, Infinite Casino, and IQ Ludorum and found them to be fair. The laws of mathematics state that the more hands are dealt the more the actual return will approach the theoretical return. If you want to prove otherwise I would suggest keeping track of the cards and putting the results through statistical tests. See my blacklist for more about that.

Hi! I have a question regarding the Microgaming no hole card rule for single deck BJ game. I remember reading in some forum that you concluded there is no difference to the HA whether the hole card is dealt or not at the beginning of the game. Is that true? I do notice that Microgaming has a higher chance of blackjack.

Taking as an extreme example:
Dealer - Ace
Player - 2,A followed by A,A,2,2 (soft 19).

Wouldn’t the dealer’s chance of BJ be increased by the fact that 4 more non-face cards were removed by the player in a single deck? On the other hand, the player can never remove enough face cards to significantly lower the chance of dealer’s blackjack. Please let me know what you think. Thanks.

anonymous

Although I don’t remember saying that it is true. The probability of the dealer’s hole card being a ten is the same whether it was dealt up front (as in Microgaming casinos) or after the player’s turn (as in European casinos). In your example, yes, the dealer’s chance of getting a blackjack does go up, but it would go up either for the next card in the deck or a hole card. An unseen card is an unseen card, much in the same way the effect is the same whether the dealer burns a card or deals one less card out of the shoe. I hope this answers your question.

At Pinnacle Sports there is a "Multi-Way calculator on the right" that shows the house edge on money line bets. What is the formula they are using?

anonymous

This is interesting. Normally the house edge is lower betting on the favorite, as I explain in my sports betting appendix 3. However at Pinnacle they evidently set the money lines so that each has the same house edge. Let d be the money line on the dog and f be the money line on the favorite. For example if the money lines were +130 and -150 then d=130 and f=-150. The house edge on both bets at Pinnacle would be:

1-(1+(d/100))*(1-(100/f))/(2+(d/100)-(100/f))

The amount you must bet to get back one unit is 1/[(d/100))*(1-(100/f))/(2+(d/100)-(100/f))].

For example with money lines of +130 and -150 the house edge on both bets would be 3.3613% and the expected return on a bet of 1.034783 units would be 1 unit.

At a land casino, I would assume the fair set of money lines to be +140 and -140 in this example, resulting in a house edge of 2.78% on the favorite and 4.17% on the dog. All other things being equal this would suggest that Pinnacle is a good place to bet on underdogs.

Recently I played at one MG casino (Viper version) High Limit Baccarat and by betting on Banker only, I get an awful result as follows:

Player 44 (64.7%)
banker 19 (27.9%)
Tie 5 (7.4%)
Total 68

What’s the chance of this happening? I appreciate your reply if you can, and hopefully with the formula so that I can calculate it myself next time.

anonymous

It is bad practice to look back at past play and ask about the odds. Rather, I prefer to state a hypothesis and then gather data to prove or disprove it. However, if we must, I would phrase your question this way: "I played the banker bet 68 times and lost 25.95 units (44-0.95*19). What is the probability of losing this much or more?"

To answer this question we must first find the variance of a single bet on the banker. Here are the possible outcomes and their probabilities, as found in my baccarat section, based on the Microgaming single-deck rules.

Win: 45.96%
Loss: 44.68%
Push: 9.36%

So the variance on a single wager is .4596*(.95)2 + .4468*(-1)2 +.0936*02 - (-0.010117)2= 0.861468877.

The variance on 68 of these bets is simply 68 times the variance of one bet, or 68*0.861468877= 58.57988361. The standard deviation of the 68 bets is simply the square root of the variance, or 58.579883611/2 = 7.653749644.

The house edge on the banker bet in a single deck game is 1.01%. So over 68 bets you could expect to lose .67 units. You lost 25.95 units, which is 25.28 more than expectations. So your results were 25.28/7.653749644 = 3.30 standard deviations below expectations. You then use a normal distribution table to find the probability of this. Excel has a feature to do this calculation, simply put: =normsdist(-3.30) in any cell and the result is 0.000483424, or 1 in 2069. So this is the probability of losing as much as you did or more. I appreciate that you didn’t make any accusations about foul play. However, if you had, I don’t think this rises to the level to prove anything. It could easily be explained as simple bad luck.

If you had to pick one video poker game to practice on line,(so you knew how to play when in Vegas), what would it be?

anonymous

Everything you need is right here!

There is my video poker game to play, which will correct you when you make mistakes.

There is my hand analyzer to analyze how to play any hand.

There is my game return calculator to determine the return of any game and pay table.

Finally, there is my strategy maker to create a strategy for any game.

Note: This answer was updated Nov. 13, 2013.

First off, great site you have here; it’s a great gaming resource. In (omitted) , I ran across an interesting game, and unless I misread the rules/paytable, I think it returns over 100%, although it is very volatile. The game is called "Shockwave Poker". For the majority of hands, the game has a negative expectation:

Royal Flush 800
Straight Flush 100
Four of a Kind 50
Full House 10
Flush 7
Straight 5
Three of a Kind 3
Two Pair 1
Jacks or Better 1

But if you hit a four-of-a-kind, the game goes into "Shockwave Mode" and for the next 10 hands or until you hit another four-of-a-kind (whichever comes first) the machine will pay a Four of a Kind 800 units; the same as a Royal Flush!

anonymous

Thanks for the compliment. Ordinarily the return would be 97.107% in normal mode and 287.6532% in Shockwave mode, using Cindy Liu's Video Poker Calculator (no longer online). Ignoring the rule about one four of a kind per Shockwave Mode the expected value of Shockwave Mode is 10*(2.876532-1) = 18.76532. Adding this to the value of a four of a kind in the regular game we get an expected return of 101.43%.

Hi, I found a Double Exposure game where the ties push. The full rules are:

  1. 6 decks.
  2. Dealer hits soft 17.
  3. All ties push, except player wins tied blackjack.
  4. Player can double on hard 9 to 11 only.
  5. Player can re-split, including unlike tens, to four hands.
  6. Double after split allowed.
  7. Draw to split aces allowed.

This must have a player advantage, can you tell me what it is?

anonymous

As I'm sure you know this game is offered by Lucky Chance casino. Using the appropriate basic strategy for these rules the player advantage is 7.2%! Wait it gets even better. You can bet three hands at once of $5 or more each and if you get a blackjack on all three you win a progressive jackpot that is currently at $18095. The probability of getting three blackjacks in three hands is 1 in 10552. So the progressive is worth an extra $1.71 per hand. On two days while I played they also offered 15% rebate on losses, calculated whenever you exited the game. So I simply exited after every hand, except on a push.

However I'm suspicious if the player advantage is too high. I checked Winner Online and found they allegedly used to offer a video poker game with a 120% return, although they use a normal pay table now. That is two red flags. Lucky Chance offers a 100% immediately bonus up to purchases of $500, so I put them to the test. It was my goal to either make a fortune on their Double Exposure game or prove the game was not fair. Following are my results:

  • 313 of single hands: net win of 32 units.
  • 1959 hands of 3 spots at once: net loss of 29 units.
  • 2272 total hands: net win of 3 units.

Given a 7.2% advantage my expected win was 163.6 units. The probability of only winning 3 or less is 12.4%. This is using a standard deviation of 1.17 for a single hand and 2.68 per hand for playing three at time. My source of the 1.17 is a random simulation using Stanford Wong's Blackjack Count Analyzer and I multiplied that by 2.28 for 3 hands, based on the standard deviations for regular blackjack for 1 and 3 hands as found in my blackjack appendix 4.

This certainly does not rise anywhere near enough to make any accusations. In addition I recorded results all sorts of ways but every test came out looking normal. I would have played longer but the game play is extremely slow and I went broke. The reason I went broke is I did worse on larger bet sizes and my first few hours I didn't record results but they were not good.

So I failed on both my goals. I was too skeptical to deposit again and already wasted several hours on the game. However, if you wish to take a crack at it then be my guest.

In Boss Media single-deck blackjack the player has the edge? What’s the catch? So I could go to one of the online casinos and play it using optimal strategy AND win over the long run? What am I missing?

anonymous

I’m sure they still make money on the game due to player mistakes. There are also forms of video poker here in Vegas that return over 100% with optimal strategy. Again, the casino counts on player mistakes to bring them under 100%. With most games that do pay over 100% the edge is so small it isn’t worth ones time to play the game as a living. However if you are going to play anyway you may as well get the best odds possible.

Party poker has added a side bet in Hold 'em. It pays 7 to 1 if the flop is all red or all black. (You must choose the correct color.) Is this a sucker bet, or should I be asking how bad of a sucker bet is this? Thanks for the great site.

Kerry T. from Austin, TX

Thanks for the compliment. The probability of that the flop will all be the same of a particular color is combin(26,3)/combin(52,3) = 2600/22100 = 2/17 = 11.765%. The expected return on this bet is (2/17)*7 - (15/17) = -1/17 = -5.882%.

I would like to play on line for free. Do the sites utilize your log in info to solicit? I want one that does not. I particularly like to play nine line Cleopatra but the online versions are not the same (that I have Found) What is the best no strings web site to play for fun?

Sue from The Colony, Texas

Yes, if you give your e-mail address to a casino they will certainly send you e-mail. However the reputable ones will stop if you ask. The less reputable casinos will not only market themselves but also share your address with others. The NetGaming casino sold me out to pornography spammers. Bodog lets you play without surrendering your email address, as do the Wager Works casinos, such as at the Hard Rock Casino. Incidentally, Casino Meister has a new page about combatting casino spam. My webmaster tells of his own problems with casino spam at VegasClick.com. I've never seen Cleopatra online. It's rare for an online casino to have the same slots found in land casinos.

I have been researching Casino Bar because they have a nice bonus today. I ran across your claim that their software does the equivalent of "dealing seconds", but I see that your information was last updated about two years ago. I was wondering if you know of any change in that situation, please. I suspect you would have updated the page if there had been a change, but I thought I would ask. Where could I find a basic strategy sheet for a casino dealing seconds? (the bonus may or may not still be playable). Am I right in thinking the house edge is close to 5% in such a game? Of course, if that is the case I may as well play tricard poker. Thank you for a great website. Do you accept donations?

Ricardo from Malden, MA

When I find a casino is not playing fair I don't generally go back to check if they've stopped. Sometimes I do if requested by the casino and I feel the problem may have been accidental. Following is a basic strategy, based on infinite decks, where the dealer stands on soft 17 and deals seconds. What I mean by dealing seconds is that if the third card, and only the third card, would break the dealer it is skipped and the next card is played, whatever it is. Otherwise play continues normally. The house edge under this game would be 9.3%. I used to ask for donations but got so few I quit asking. Now the site is comfortably supported by advertising revenue anyway.

Millennium Sports offers a 6-point 2-team teaser at even odds. I’d like to see the teaser page updated with these odds. Plus I’d like to see another table that states what percentage of individual bets you’d have to win to break even. I calculate the 2 team 6 point teaser witheven odds to be 75% to break even. A difficult task.

John from Herndon, VA

I just updated my Sport Betting Appendix 4 to include the Millennium teasers, as well as using more recent data. Here are is the house edge on teasers including the Millennium odds and whether the pick is on a team or the total.

Two Team 6-Point Teasers

Pays Team Total
-120 12.85% 18.12%
-110 9.25% 14.74%
Ev 4.92% 10.68%

Two Team 6.5-Point Teasers

Pays Team Total
-110 5.85% 10.41%
-120 9.58% 13.97%
-130 12.74% 16.98%

To answer your question, to beat the 6-point teaser you would need an overall probability of winning of greater than 50%, so per pick the probability of covering the tease would need to be the square root of 0.5, which equals 70.71%. To beat the 6.5-point teaser the probability per bet would be 52.38%, or 0.52380.5=72.37% per pick.

Dear Wizard, I have read your comments about online blackjack and the fact that the decks are shuffled after each hand. Is there a casino online that has less shuffling or if not, am I forced to play live dealer blackjack which has more decks stacked and at least I can be aware of when shuffling does occur. Cheers.

Ken from Oxford, UK

Perhaps you misunderstood the point I was trying to make in my blackjack appendix 10. The bottom line is that unless you are a card counter shuffling after every hand, as opposed to using a cut card, is a good thing. The house edge is reduced 0.02% in a 6-deck game, to 0.11% in a 1-deck game, by shuffling after every hand.

Re buy bet vig. in craps. Most online casinos on a $10 4/10 buy bet return 19.00, they claim a 5% vig. I always thought this was on the bet amount, not on the win amount which means the return should be 19.50 which is how Bodog does it. Are the other casinos wrong?

Al from Calgary

Yes. Assuming the commission is paid only on a win then it should be applied to the bet amount, not the win amount.

As a craps player I enjoy playing the more player friendly version of crapless found in Tunica. With their version of buy bets the vig is paid only on a winning bet. With that I am wondering on the ev of a $10 3 or 11 paying $29 after vig, or a $10 2 or 12 paying $59 after the vig.

Alex from Englewood, FL

A $10 buy bet on the 3 or 11 would pay $29.50, and on the 2 or 12 it would pay $59.50. The house edge on the 3 or 11 is 1.25%, and on the 2 or 12 it is 0.71%.

I was playing baccarat online at USACasino which uses a live dealer and Playtech software. Apparently Playtech has instituted a new rule that the dealer burns a card after each hand is dealt. This is not the way it is played in casinos. What bearing, if any, does this have on the odds of the game. I can’t believe the casino would institute a new rule that wasn’t in their favor.

Phil from Yonkers

Burning cards has no effect on the basic strategy player. They probably are doing this to discourage card counters. However, they may as well just shuffle earlier. For card counting purposes what is important is the number of cards seen, it doesn’t matter whether the unseen cards are burned or behind the cut card.

Always, great site. I am hoping that you can settle an argument between myself and a friend of mine concerning online Bingo. The web-site allows you to buy bingo cards for 10 cents a piece. Assuming one has 5.00 to spend, my friend believes you have are better off buying 50 cards and playing one time instead of buying a single card each game at .50 and playing 10 times. I disagree and believe that since no matter how many cards you buy, they are .10 cents a piece, it makes no difference if you play them all at once or spread them out?

Ed from Indianapolis

Thanks for the compliment. The answer depends on how the jackpot is determined by the bingo site. If it is a percentage of total cards sold, which is usually the case, then it wouldn’t make any difference. However, if there is a fixed prize for the winner, then it would be better to play one game at a time, lest you compete against yourself.

What is the house edge of gold pontoon on the new Microgaming platform?

Steve from KC

There are two significant rules changes to the Microgaming pontoon game. First, the dealer stands on soft 17, which is worth 0.47% to the player. Second, there is no drawing to or resplitting of aces, which is worth 0.49% to the dealer. So these two rules almost offset each other. Overall the house edge is 0.39%, with correct strategy, which is indicated in my Microgaming section.

I am interested in playing on-line, but the Bodog casino you recommend does not allow Canadian residents to play. Do you know why that is?

Allan from Toronto, Canada

Thanks for considering them. Bodog has their corporate headquarters in Vancouver. They feel it legally questionable whether they can take bets from their fellow Canadians, so they choose to be beyond reproach and not do so.

Some of the online casinos such as Bodog pay 9 to 1 for the tie bet in baccarat. What is the house edge for the tie bet with the 9 to 1 payout?

Bryan from Mill Valley

Yes, Bodog does indeed pay 9 to 1 on the tie. Assuming eight decks, that lowers the house edge from 14.360% to 4.844%.

Wagerworks has a new game Texas Hold ’Em Shootout and it supposedly features a 100% return. Do you have any thoughts on how to reach this return rate? Thanks for all the strategies and advice. ;)

Rich from Welwyn Garden City

You’re welcome. That is a damn clever game. Basically, the player plays conventional Texas Hold’em against two bots, except there is no betting after the river. In the player’s favor is being last to act. In the casino’s favor is that the two bots are colluding. Basically, the bot with the weaker hand will fold, and the player will be left to play against only the stronger bot. I haven’t analyzed this game yet, so I’m afraid you’re on your own.

Is there a house edge when playing Microsoft Solitaire? I’ve been taking my co-worker for hundreds, as he insists that there is a player edge.

Ed from New York

Yes, there must be. Cryptologic Internet casinos have been offering the game, under the Vegas rules, for years. They also offer the version where you turn over the cards in the tableau one at a time, but can only run through it once. As under the Microsoft Vegas rules, the player gets back fives time the bet per card for each one he puts in the stacks. I would bank that game all day long, if I could.

Why does BetFair have zero house edge blackjack? I suspect that it is because they realize that players either don’t know the optimal strategy or sometimes can’t act on it (for example if they bet their last chip and then are unable to act on a double down or splitting opportunity).

Nick from London

They also have zero house edge baccarat and roulette, so that can’t be entirely the reason. My theory is that it is a way to get players through the door. Their main casino has many more games and higher bet limits. I’m sure some of the Zero Lounge players wander into the regular casino eventually.

Hi Wizard, I came across a new online casino, and decided to give it a try. I was playing at their craps table and noticed that on 20 rolls of the dice, the field bet lost 16 times, and won only 4 times. The sequence went like this: L6,W1,L1,W1,L1,W1,L2,W1,L6. I realize this is a small sample, but is it enough to pass some sort of assessment as to whether this new casino is legit or not?

Mark from Ottawa, Ontario

The probability of an event with probability p happening x times, out of a possible n, is combin(n,x) × px × (1-p)(n-x). In this case, p=4/9, x=4, and n=20. Here is the probability for all possible number of number of field rolls out of 20:

Bad Beat Combinations

Wins Probability
0 0.000008
1 0.000126
2 0.000954
3 0.004579
4 0.015567
5 0.039851
6 0.079703
7 0.127524
8 0.165782
9 0.176834
10 0.155614
11 0.113174
12 0.067904
13 0.033430
14 0.013372
15 0.004279
16 0.001070
17 0.000201
18 0.000027
19 0.000002
20 0.000000
Total 1.000000


Taking the sum for 0 to 4, the probability is 2.12%. So, this could have easily happened in a fair game.

PKR.com, and apparently other sites, now have a "Deal or No Deal" gambling game. The site says it has a house edge of 4.54%. The 26 cases range from 2% to 1000% of your bet. The $100 game uses these figures 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 200, 1000. That makes a total of 2482, the 118 shortfall is the 4.54% edge (2482/2600 = 95.46%). Unlike the TV shows, the banker’s offer is always the true average of the remaining cases in every round. There is no mathematical advantage to wait for a better offer. Is there an optimal strategy that can be employed?

Andy B. from Embrun, ON

I agree with your math. The average of those cases is 95.46, for a house edge of 4.54% over the $100 bet. There is absolutely no strategy that will either help you or hurt you. You may as well fly by the seat of your pants.

The Victor Chandler casino has a game called "Challenge Poker," which plays like MultiStrike video poker, with two differences:

  1. No "Free Ride" cards.
  2. The base game is different at each level, all of them over 100%.

What is the return of this game?

Jim from Las Vegas

Let’s start with the Joker Poker game at level 4. I pre-multiplied the wins by 8, for the 8x multiplier in level 4. The lower right cell shows a return of 8.36 times the bet per level. That means if you can get to level 4, it is worth 8.36 times your bet for that level.

Challenge Poker — Level 4 — Joker Poker

Hand Pays Probability Return
Royal Flush 8000 0.000025 0.197991
Five of a Kind 1600 0.000093 0.148568
Wild Royal Flush 800 0.000102 0.081502
Straight Flush 400 0.000577 0.230739
Four of a Kind 160 0.008444 1.35102
Full House 64 0.015457 0.989258
Flush 48 0.02008 0.963829
Straight 24 0.015964 0.383133
Three of a Kind 16 0.131052 2.096835
Two Pair 8 0.109069 0.872555
Kings or Better 8 0.130636 1.045088
Nothing 0 0.568501 0
Total 1.000000 8.360518

The next table is for the Deuces Wild game in level 3. The wins in the column for "this level" have been pre-multiplied by 4, for the 4x multiplier in level 3. The "future levels" column shows the value of advancing to level 4. The "total value" shows the combined value, current and future. The lower right cell shows a return of 8.00 times the bet per level. So, if you can get to level 3, the rest of the game (levels 3 and 4 combined) is worth 8 times the bet per level.

Challenge Poker — Level 3 — Deuces Wild

Hand This Level Future Levels Total Value Probability Return
Royal Flush 3200 8.36 3208.36 0.000021 0.067611
Four Deuces 800 8.36 808.36 0.000202 0.163510
Wild Royal Flush 120 8.36 128.36 0.001715 0.220129
Five of a Kind 80 8.36 88.36 0.003272 0.289111
Straight Flush 36 8.36 44.36 0.003919 0.173848
Four of a Kind 20 8.36 28.36 0.065321 1.852541
Full House 12 8.36 20.36 0.021301 0.433703
Flush 12 8.36 20.36 0.018085 0.368214
Straight 8 8.36 16.36 0.052079 0.852039
Three of a Kind 4 8.36 12.36 0.289967 3.584144
Nothing 0 0 0 0.544118 0
Total 1.000000 8.004849

The next table is for the All American game in level 2. The wins in the column for "this level" have been pre-multiplied by 2, for the 2x multiplier in level 2. The "future levels" column shows the value of advancing to level 3. The "total value" shows the combined value, current and future. The lower right cell shows a return of 5.63 times the bet per level. So, if you can get to level 2, the rest of the game (levels 2-4 combined) are worth 5.63 times the bet per level.

Challenge Poker — Level 2 — All American

Hand This Level Future Levels Total Value Probability Return
Royal Flush 3200 8 1608 0.000022 0.035905
Straight Flush 800 8 408 0.00009 0.036568
Four of a Kind 160 8 88 0.002179 0.191762
Full House 32 8 24 0.010881 0.261198
Flush 32 8 24 0.010721 0.257352
Straight 32 8 24 0.012169 0.292120
Three of a Kind 12 8 14 0.067664 0.947625
Two Pair 4 8 10 0.12104 1.210985
Jacks or Better 4 8 10 0.239323 2.394392
Nothing 0 0 0 0.535911 0
Total 1.000000 5.627908

The final table is for the Jacks or Better game in level 1. The “future levels” column shows the value of advancing to level 2. The “total win” shows the combined value, current and future. The lower right cell shows a return of 3.60 times the bet per level.

Challenge Poker — Level 1 — Jacks or Better

Hand This Level Future Levels Total Value Probability Return
Royal Flush 3200 5.63 805.63 0.000024 0.019684
Straight Flush 300 5.63 80.63 0.000073 0.005905
Four of a Kind 100 5.63 30.63 0.002207 0.067595
Full House 36 5.63 14.63 0.011014 0.161111
Flush 24 5.63 11.63 0.009205 0.107034
Straight 16 5.63 9.63 0.007246 0.069763
Three of a Kind 12 5.63 8.63 0.069254 0.597516
Two Pair 8 5.63 7.63 0.123961 0.945566
Jacks or Better 4 5.63 6.63 0.245815 1.629242
Nothing 0 0 0 0.531200 0
Total 1.000000 3.603417

So, this game is worth 3.603417 units, assuming optimal strategy. However, you have to bet 4 coins to play, making the return 90.1%.

Recently the Suncoast ran a promotion where every second royal flush paid double. What strategy changes would you recommend?

Arnold

According to VPfree2.com, the best game at the Suncoast is 99.92% two pair or better joker wild. The game normally pays 1000x for a royal, so every other royal would pay 2000x. I’m going to assume that time is not a factor, and the player could do this over and over, as many times as he wished. Granted, this is not a realistic assumption, because Suncoast rules required the second royal to be hit within 24 hours of the first, but it would get too complicated to factor that rule into this.

At first I thought the player should play a more aggressive strategy when going for the 2000x royal than the 1000x royal. However, that is not correct. The idea of using a single intermediate strategy for both the first and second royals was suggested to me by video poker expert, Bob Dancer. Bob tells me he thought of employing this strategy back when Flush Attack games were common. Smart players used the same intermediate strategy in both regular mode and flush attack mode, rather than switching strategies between modes. Once he made the suggestion, I ran the analysis to see if he was correct.

Let’s look at the overall expected return if the player played based on a 1000x royal for the first one and 2000x for the second one. Using my video poker calculator, we find the probability of a royal flush with a strategy based on a 1000x royal is 1 in 43,617, with a return of 0.999205. The probability of a royal flush with a strategy based on a 2000x royal is 1 in 40,776 hands, with a return of 1.022934. The overall return after two royals is (0.999205×43,617 + 1.022934×40,776)/( 43,617+ 40,776) = 1.010670.

Now let’s do the same thing, but with a strategy based on a 1500x royal the entire time. With a 1500x strategy, but with an actual royal win of 1000, the royal probability is 1 in 42,209, and the return is 0.998969. With a 1500x strategy, but with an actual royal win of 2000, the royal probability is still 1 in 42,209, but the return is 1.022661. The overall return after two royals is (0.998969×42209 + 1.022661×42209)/( 42209 + 42209) = 1.010815. 101.08% is greater than the 101.07% with the two separate strategies, confirming that a balanced strategy is the way to go. The same principle of assuming an average win of 1.5 times the normal win will apply to any video poker game under this promotion.

I was playing video poker in Atlantic City, and I could have sworn I received the same card I discarded on the draw sometimes. If the machine was putting the discards back in the deck, what would be the effect on the odds?

edhoui

Cryptologic Internet casinos have such a game, called Bonus Video Poker, where discards are put back in the deck. The 40-20-9-6 Jacks or Better pay table in that game returns 95.2642%, before considering the redraw bonus feature, which I won’t get into here. In conventional video poker, that pay table would return 98.2534%. So, in this example, putting the discards back in the deck costs the player almost 3%. However, I highly doubt that actually happened on a machine in Atlantic City.

This question was raised and discussed in the forum of my companion site Wizard of Vegas.

There is a blackjack game online with the following rules:

  • 8 decks.
  • Cards shuffled after every hand.
  • Blackjack pays 2 to 1.
  • Dealer hits on soft 17.
  • No doubling down.
  • Split pairs once only.
  • No surrender.
Between your house edge calculator and effect of rule variations I would be able to figure out the house edge, except you don't indicate the effect of no doubling. Can you help fill in the missing piece of the puzzle?

SilentBob420BMFJ

Using my blackjack house edge calculator, I get a house edge of 0.82%, before factoring the 2-1 on blackjacks and no doubling. 2-1 on blackjacks is worth 2.26% to the player. No doubling is worth 1.37% to the dealer.

So I show the player edge is 0.82% -2.26% + 1.37% = 0.07%.

This question was raised and discussed in the forum of my companion site Wizard of Vegas.