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Betting the NHL
On this page
Introduction
The goal of this page is to help the recreational hockey better. I carefully look at the value of the major ways to bet -- the money line, over/under, and puck line, to determine the best value. Then I list some miscellaneous hockey statistics for your entertainment.
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Data and Methodology
The following data is from every game played in the four NHL seasons starting with the 2017/18 season. The total number of games played in these four seasons is 4,875. It is worth noting that the 2020/2021 season was shortened to 1,904 games due to the Covid pandemic.
The data was purchased from Big Ball Data one season at a time. The first three seasons had very tight lines that I presume came from Pinnacle Sports. The fourth season had more normal 20-cent lines. In evaluating the expected returns below, I calculated overall returns for all the data and then used the appropriate weighting factors to get the returns to equal the 4.54% expected with a 20-cent line, which the vast majority of sports books offer for hockey.
The next three sections show my analysis of the three major ways of betting hockey -- the money line, over/under, and puck line.
Compare Online NHL Odds
Ice Hockey : HockeyAllsvenskan
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
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Wed Jan 15th 1pm
Djurgårdens IF AIK |
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Djurgårdens IF has a strong offense but struggles defensively. AIK shows solid defensive play but lacks scoring. Home advantage could be crucial. Expect a close match. |
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Wed Jan 15th 1pm
Almtuna IS Vimmerby HC |
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Almtuna IS is strong at home, while Vimmerby HC is known for a resilient defense. Expect a close game with a slight edge for the home team. |
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Wed Jan 15th 1pm
Västerås IK Östersunds IK |
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Västerås IK has a strong home advantage. Östersunds IK struggles on the road. Consider betting on Västerås, but watch defensive plays. Check injury reports for both teams before placing a bet. |
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Wed Jan 15th 1pm
Tingsryds AIF IF Björklöven |
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Tingsryds AIF and IF Björklöven showcase contrasting styles. Björklöven's strong offense could dominate, but Tingsryds' solid home defense might cause an upset. Monitor player form and recent game statistics. |
Ice Hockey : NHL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tue Jan 14th 9pm
Colorado Avalanche New York Rangers |
⇗660.00 |
⇗2.00 |
125 (4.5)
⇗245.00 |
The Colorado Avalanche exhibits strong offense, while the New York Rangers have a solid defense. Expect a tight game. Watch key players: MacKinnon for Avalanche, Shesterkin for Rangers. |
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Tue Jan 14th 9pm
Utah Hockey Club Montréal Canadiens |
⇗525.00 |
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Montréal Canadiens have a stronger history and recent performance. Utah's underdog status may offer high-risk bets. Consider team health and road game challenges. |
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Wed Jan 15th 6pm
Buffalo Sabres Carolina Hurricanes |
158
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⇗5.00 |
⇗4.00 |
Buffalo Sabres exhibit strong defense, but Carolina Hurricanes have an aggressive offense. Expect a tight match; consider under for goals if betting. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wed Jan 15th 8pm
Minnesota Wild Edmonton Oilers |
⇗9.00 |
⇗5.00 |
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Both teams showcase strong offenses. Wild's defense struggles, Oilers have home advantage. Expect high scoring. Watch for McDavid's impact. Key players: Kaprizov, Talbot (Wild), McDavid, Draisaitl (Oilers). |
Ice Hockey : NHL Championship Winner
| Thu Jun 19th 8pm | Competitor/Team | Quote |
|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers |
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| Florida Panthers |
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| Carolina Hurricanes |
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| Dallas Stars |
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| New Jersey Devils |
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| Vegas Golden Knights |
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| Toronto Maple Leafs |
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| Colorado Avalanche |
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| Winnipeg Jets |
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| Tampa Bay Lightning |
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| Washington Capitals |
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| Minnesota Wild |
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| Los Angeles Kings |
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| Vancouver Canucks |
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| Boston Bruins |
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| New York Rangers |
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| Ottawa Senators |
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| Utah Hockey Club |
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| Nashville Predators |
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| New York Islanders |
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| Pittsburgh Penguins |
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| Calgary Flames |
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| Detroit Red Wings |
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| Philadelphia Flyers |
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| St Louis Blues |
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| Seattle Kraken |
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| Montréal Canadiens |
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| Buffalo Sabres |
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| Columbus Blue Jackets |
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| Chicago Blackhawks |
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| Anaheim Ducks |
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| San Jose Sharks |
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Ice Hockey : SHL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thu Jan 16th 1pm
Luleå HF Brynäs IF |
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Luleå HF is strong at home, but Brynäs IF has improved. Expect a close game. Consider betting on total goals over 4.5 for value. |
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Thu Jan 16th 1pm
Rögle BK Frölunda HC |
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Rögle BK's strong home performance may edge Frölunda HC. Watch for key players' impact on the outcome. Consider recent form and injuries when placing bets. |
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Thu Jan 16th 1pm
HV71 Färjestad BK |
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Both teams have strong offensive capabilities but HV71 struggles defensively. Consider betting on over goals. Färjestad has a slight edge due to better recent performance. |
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Thu Jan 16th 1pm
Leksands IF Örebro HK |
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Leksands IF vs. Örebro HK: Recent form favors Örebro, boasting strong defense. Consider betting on a close match. Watch key players' performance as it could influence results. |
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Thu Jan 16th 1pm
Modo Hockey Linköping HC |
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Modo Hockey has shown strong home performance. Linköping HC is unpredictable away. Expect a competitive game with potential for high scoring. Focus on defensive strategies and penalties. |
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Thu Jan 16th 1pm
Timrå IK Malmö Redhawks |
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Timrå IK has home advantage but Malmö Redhawks have a stronger recent form. Expect a close game with potential for overtime. Consider betting on a close score margin. |
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Thu Jan 16th 1pm
Skellefteå AIK Växjö Lakers |
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Skellefteå AIK has strong home advantage. Växjö Lakers show solid recent form. Expect a close match, possibly low scoring. Defensive play will be crucial for both teams. |
Money Line
Money Line bets are simple bets on who will win. The following table shows the expected return flat betting all underdogs, favorites, and picks (both teams have 50/50 chance of winning). As expected, based on studying other sports, the underdogs offer a better value, with a house edge 2.73% less than better on favorites.
Money Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog | 96.82% | 3.18% |
| Favorite | 94.09% | 5.91% |
| Pick | 95.45% | 4.55% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Of the 4,875 games in the last four seasons studied, the home team won 2,627 (53.9%) and the road team was 2,248 (46.1%). The next table breaks down how money line bets went both ways.
Money Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Road | 94.82% | 5.18% |
| Home | 96.09% | 3.91% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Over/Under
The next table looks at bets against the total. Not surprisingly, bets on the under did bet, with a house edge 1.67% than bets on the cover. This does not come as a surprise, because bets on the under do significantly better than the over in every sport I have studied.
Over/Under Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 94.62% | 5.38% |
| Under | 96.29% | 3.71% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Puck Line
The Puck Line is like the Run Line in baseball. It is a point spread that is always 1.5. The favorite always gives up 1.5 goals and the underdog gets them. The following table shows that the house edge betting on the underdog is 1.61% lower than betting the favorite.
Puck Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog +1.5 | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Favorite -1.5 | 94.65% | 5.35% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
I should mention I spent a lot of time studying puck line bets, looking to see if there was any value assuming the money line bets were fair. To make a long story short, I find the sports books do a good job in setting the puck lines properly.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average goals scored by period and overtime for both regular season games and the playoffs.
The reason I think they should be considered separately is there is an incentive to go to overtime in regular season games. To be specific, if a game is decided after three periods, then two points are awarded to the winner and zero to the loser. However, if the game is decided in overtime, two points are awarded to the winner and one to the loser. Overtime is always sudden death (team to score first wins). The data shows the probability of overtime in a regular season game is 22.57% and drops to 20.89% in the playoffs.
Average Goals by Period
| Period | Regular Season |
Overtime | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.7260 | 1.5300 | 1.7106 |
| 2 | 2.0100 | 1.9530 | 2.0055 |
| 3 | 2.0151 | 1.9008 | 2.0062 |
| Overtime | 0.2257 | 0.2089 | 0.2244 |
| Total | 5.9768 | 5.5927 | 5.9467 |
The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for a single team.
Number of Goals per Team by Period
| Goals | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42.02% | 36.04% | 37.08% |
| 1 | 37.01% | 37.84% | 35.67% |
| 2 | 15.59% | 17.94% | 19.22% |
| 3 | 4.39% | 6.50% | 6.22% |
| 4 | 0.81% | 1.41% | 1.56% |
| 5 | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.23% |
| 6 | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| 7 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Average | 0.8553 | 1.0028 | 1.0031 |
The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for both teams combined.
Number of Goals per Team by Period
| Goals | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.68% | 12.80% | 12.21% |
| 1 | 30.75% | 26.38% | 26.87% |
| 2 | 26.77% | 28.35% | 28.33% |
| 3 | 15.77% | 18.65% | 19.43% |
| 4 | 6.58% | 9.39% | 8.88% |
| 5 | 1.78% | 3.16% | 2.81% |
| 6 | 0.51% | 0.82% | 1.15% |
| 7 | 0.06% | 0.37% | 0.29% |
| 8 | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.04% |
| 9 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Average | 1.7106 | 2.0055 | 2.0062 |
The following shows the number of goals scored by the home team across the road team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Number of Goals by Home Team across Road Team
| Home Goals |
Road Goals |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
| 0 | 0 | 40 | 46 | 88 | 61 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 264 |
| 1 | 51 | 0 | 214 | 129 | 178 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 680 |
| 2 | 49 | 227 | 0 | 334 | 151 | 130 | 41 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 952 |
| 3 | 96 | 168 | 336 | 0 | 278 | 96 | 56 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1055 |
| 4 | 68 | 180 | 191 | 274 | 0 | 128 | 24 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 887 |
| 5 | 32 | 97 | 223 | 89 | 106 | 0 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 591 |
| 6 | 11 | 44 | 56 | 93 | 38 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 283 |
| 7 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 316 | 786 | 1098 | 1048 | 841 | 492 | 195 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 4875 |
The following shows the number of goals scored by the winning team across the losing team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Number of Goals per by Winning Team across Losing Team
| Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| 2 | 95 | 441 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 536 |
| 3 | 184 | 297 | 670 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1151 |
| 4 | 129 | 358 | 342 | 552 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1381 |
| 5 | 52 | 167 | 353 | 185 | 234 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 991 |
| 6 | 20 | 67 | 97 | 149 | 62 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 464 |
| 7 | 6 | 35 | 38 | 49 | 40 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 |
| 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 580 | 1375 | 1514 | 952 | 347 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4875 |
The following table shows the number the count for each margin of victory and the probability for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Margin of Victory
| Margin | Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2,069 | 42.44% |
| 2 | 996 | 20.43% |
| 3 | 1,095 | 22.46% |
| 4 | 451 | 9.25% |
| 5 | 172 | 3.53% |
| 6 | 71 | 1.46% |
| 7 | 14 | 0.29% |
| 8 | 4 | 0.08% |
| 9 | 3 | 0.06% |
| Total | 4,875 | 100.00% |
The following table shows various statistics per game for road and home teams as well as the total between the two.
Miscellaneous Statistics — Road vs. Home
| Description | Road Team | Home Team | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shifts | 384.95 | 379.46 | 764.41 |
| Shots on goal | 30.56 | 31.87 | 62.43 |
| Shots missed | 11.36 | 12.16 | 23.52 |
| Shots blocked | 14.34 | 13.90 | 28.24 |
| Assists | 4.68 | 5.16 | 9.84 |
| Points* | 7.47 | 8.22 | 15.70 |
| Penalties | 3.58 | 3.34 | 6.92 |
| Penalty minutes | 8.47 | 7.92 | 16.40 |
| Hits | 22.37 | 23.29 | 45.66 |
| Take aways | 6.32 | 7.97 | 14.29 |
| Give aways | 7.95 | 10.56 | 18.52 |
| Faceoffs won | 28.42 | 29.93 | 58.35 |
| Faceoffs lost | 29.93 | 28.42 | 58.34 |
The following table shows various statistics per game for regular season and play offs games as well as the total between the two.
Miscellaneous Statistics — Regular Season vs. Playoffs
| Description | Regular Season |
Playoffs | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shifts | 759.22 | 825.24 | 764.41 |
| Shots on goal | 62.40 | 62.79 | 62.43 |
| Shots missed | 23.48 | 23.95 | 23.52 |
| Shots blocked | 27.92 | 31.91 | 28.24 |
| Assists | 9.88 | 9.34 | 9.84 |
| Points | 15.76 | 14.93 | 15.70 |
| Penalties | 6.85 | 7.77 | 6.92 |
| Penalty minutes | 16.16 | 19.18 | 16.40 |
| Hits | 43.74 | 68.15 | 45.66 |
| Take aways | 14.28 | 14.39 | 14.29 |
| Give aways | 18.32 | 20.89 | 18.52 |
| Faceoffs won | 58.29 | 59.09 | 58.35 |
Notes:
*: A point is different from a goal. Points may be awarded to players assisting in a goal. The ratio of points to goals in the NHL for the four seasons starting in 2017 is 2.64.
The following table shows the ratio of goals to shots on goals cut various ways.
Ratio of Goals to Shots
| Category | Ratio |
|---|---|
| Away | 9.29% |
| Home | 9.75% |
| Regular season | 9.58% |
| Playoffs | 8.91% |
| Total | 9.52% |