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Super Bowl 51 -- Proposition Bets
After much thought and money lost, I have decided to retire from proposition bet making in the NFL. The primary reason for this is the game is played differently than it was in the early 2000's. The data on which my bets were made go back to 2000, when the rules were different. In an effort to make the game safer, the NFL has put a ball and chain on defenses, resulting in higher scoring games.
As evidence, between 2000 and 2005, the average total points scored per game was 41.92. In the regular season of 2016 it was 45.54. That may not sound like huge difference, but advantages have been slim lately, so an increase in points scored of 8.6% in points scored makes a difference in perceived advantages. Virtually all the props I like favored boring, uneventful, and low-scoring games. This should not come as a surprise, as the square bettors prefer prop bets that favor exactly the opposite.
Another change in the game is kickers are now much better than they were just ten years ago. In the 2000 season there were an average of 2.92 field goals per game. In the 2016 regular season there were 3.34. I figure this is partially due to the higher scoring nature of the game and also the kickers can simply kick further. In the entire 2000 season there were 37 field goals made of 50 yards or more, or 0.0714 per game. In the 2016 regular season there were 85, or 0.166 per game. I think it is very dangerous to use data from a period with few field goals to bet on a game played today.
Yet another factor is I think there is a lot more competition from other sharp prop bettors. No longer are the advantages over 20%, which were commonplace ten years ago. I don't know where all these competitors came from but I suspect I'm partially responsible for drawing attention to betting NFL prop bets. In other words, I'm a victim of my own success.
Finally, the Super Bowls of 2014 and 2016 were abject disasters for me. While, 2015 went well, I know the trend since I started doing this around 2005 would be a negative one. Four safeties in the last eight Super Bowls have not helped.
In conclusion, I am not saying that I will absolutely never make another prop bet. In fact, I made some on the AFC and NFC championship games, which went badly. I may make some small wagers that I have made every Super Bowl, just because old habits are hard to die, but I won't be betting thousands of dollars on each one like I used to do. More like in the low hundreds. Nor will I be promoting specific bets here or on the radio. Sorry, but for Super Bowl 2017, you're on your own.
While I won't be giving you any picks this year, you can at least see what is out there. Here are pictures of some prop sheets for Super Bowl 51. More should be coming in the days leading up to the game.
Boyd/Coast — Version 1
Boyd/Coast — Version 2
Cantor (Venetian, Palazzo, Tropicana, Cosmopolitan)
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You can find the full list at Full list of Super Bowl 51 prop bets from Westgate Superbook.
You can also find the full list at Full list of Super Bowl 51 prop bets from Westgate Superbook.
- Proposition bet calculator — Get the fair line for all these props and more based for any NFL game.
- Super Bowl 50 Prop Bet Recommendations — My picks for Super Bowl 50.
- Super Bowl 49 Prop Bet Recommendations — My picks for Super Bowl 50.
- Las Vegas sports book families — Many Vegas casinos share the same lines. This page will show you which casinos are in which sports book groupings.
- SUPER BOWL LI (2017) PROP BETTING — Discussion in my forum at Wizard of Vegas
- a href="https://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2017/jan/27/full-list-of-super-bowl-51-prop-bets-from-westgate/" target=_blank>Full list of Super Bowl 51 prop bets from Westgate Superbook as LasVegasSun.com.