## Wizard Recommends

Last Updated: February 21, 2019

# Super Bowl 49 - Proposition Bets

## Introduction

This page shows some of the many bets available on Super Bowl 49, including my fair price and prices seen on prop sheets around Vegas. Often, the prices on the sheets are the opening price, which can be way off from fair. It won't take long for the sharp bettors to move the line to about where it should be. Nevertheless, there are a lot more square than sharp bettors, and there are always easy to find good bets. This sheet will help identify them.

Except for the bet on the number of letters in the last name of the first touchdown scorer, my fair lines are based on every regular season NFL game since 2000. I also strongly consider the point spread and total on the game. In the case of Super Bowl 49, the point spread varied from pick to the Patriots a one-point favorite. The total ranged from 47.5 to 48.

It should be noted the nature of the game changed over the 15 years in my data. In particular, not just the number of field goals has gone up, but the percentage of scores that are field goals. You'll see a lot bets that look great on a low number of field goals and kicking points. Take these with a grain of salt, because my fair lines factor in the years with fewer field goals.

Before you bet the farm on the no safety, keep in mind there have been four safeties in the last six Super Bowls, including three out of the last three. Personally, I'm still betting it, but do so yourself at your own risk.

## Props on Both Teams

• First Score Touchdown (Win)

Fair price = -172
Westgate (no/yes) = +145/-165
Wynn (no/yes) = +135/-155
MGM (no/yes) = +130/-160
CG Technology (no/yes) = +140/-170
South Point (no/yes) = +145/-165
Coast Casinos (no/yes) = +135/-165
• Last Score Touchdown (Win)

Fair price = -201
Westgate (no/yes) = +170/-190
Wynn (no/yes) = +160/-180
South Point (no/yes) = +170/-200
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -190/+170
• Team to score first wins -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -158
Westgate (no/yes) = +150/-170
CG Technology (no/yes) = +140/-170
Wynn (no/yes) = +140/-170
South Point (no/yes) = +150/-170
Coast Casinos (no/yes) = +135/-165
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +145/-165
Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = +135/-165
• Team to score last wins -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -203
CG Technology (no/yes) = +170/-200
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +160/-180
• Three Consecutive Scores -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = -161
CG Technology (no/yes) = +150/-180
South Point (no/yes) = +160/-180
Coast Casinos (no/yes) = +150/-180
• Four Consecutive Scores -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +293
Westgate (no/yes) = -330/+270
• Largest lead under 13.5 (Win)

Fair price = +157
Westgate (under/over) = +140/-160
Wynn (under/over) = +120/-140
CG Technology (un/ov) = +125/-155
South Point (un/ov) = +130/-150
• Game tied after 0-0 -- NO (Loss)

Fair price = -114
Westgate (no/yes) = -120/+100
Wynn (no/yes) = -105/-115
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -165/+145
• Lowest scoring quarter by both teams under 3.5 (Win)

Fair price = +111
Westgate (under/over) = -110/-110
Wynn (under/over) = -110/-110
• Highest scoring quarter by both teams under 19.5 (Loss)

Fair price = +102
Wynn (under/over) = -110/-110
• Highest scoring quarter by both teams under 20 (Loss)

Fair price = -118
Westgate (under/over) = -130/+110
• Field Goals under 2.5 (Win)

Fair price = +167
MGM (under/over) = +165/-185
• Field Goals under 3.5 (Win)

Fair price = -137
CG Technology (under/over) = -140/+110
Wynn (under/over) = -130/+110
South Point (un/ov) = -140/+120
Coast Casinos (un/ov) = -130/EV
Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -150/+130
Boyd/Coast (un/ov) = -130/EV
• Punts under 8 (Loss)

Fair price = +124
MGM (under/over) = -130/+100
• Punts under 8.5 (Loss)

Fair price = -111
Westgate (under/over) = -140/+120
Wynn (under/over) = -120/+100
South Point (un/ov) = -135/+115
Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -140/+120
• Combined field goals and touchdowns under 8.5 (Win)

Fair price = +108
MGM (under/over) = -150/+120
• Safety -- NO (Win)

Fair price = -1508
Westgate (no/yes) = -700/+500
CG Technology (no/yes) = -875/+575
MGM (no/yes) = -850/+550
Wynn (no/yes) = -550/+500
South Point (no/yes) = -725/+525
Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -800/+500
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -700/+500
William Hill (no/yes) = -600/+450
Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -800/+500
• Overtime -- NO (Win)

Fair price = -1385
CG Technology(no/yes) = -1100/+700
MGM (no/yes) = -800/+450
Wynn (no/yes) = -800/+500
South Point (no/yes) = -750/+500
Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -800/+500
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -800/+550
William Hill (no/yes) = -800/+450
Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -800/+500
• Two-point Conversion -- NO (Win)

Fair price = -584
Westgate (no/yes) = -450/+375
CG Technology(no/yes) = -400/+300
Wynn (no/yes) = -450/+350
South Point (no/yes) = -380/+280
Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -280/+270
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -400/+330
William Hill (no/yes) = -320/+260
Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -380/+270
• Three-point margin of victory -- NO (Win)

Fair price = -532
Westgate (no/yes) = -400/+330
Wynn (no/yes) = -450/+350
South Point (no/yes) = -400/+330
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -400/+330
William Hill (no/yes) = -320/+260
• Scoreless Quarter -- NO (Loss)

Fair price = -362
Westgate (no/yes) = -290/+245
CG Technology(no/yes) = -300/+240
Wynn (no/yes) = -330/+270
South Point (no/yes) = -290/+245
Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -320/+230
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -320/+260
• Total Touchdowns under 5.5 (Loss)

Fair price = -116
Westgate (under/over) = -120/+100
MGM (under/over) = -110/?
Wynn (under/over) = -120/+100
South Point (under/over) = -115/-105
Coast Casinos (un/ov) = -115/-115
Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -130/+110
Boyd/Coast (un/ov) = -115/-115
• Last Score of First Half is a Field Goal (Loss)

Fair price = -102
South Point (no/yes) = -120/+100
• Lead change in first half -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +140
CG Technology(no/yes) = -155/+125
South Point (no/yes) = -130/+110
Coast Casinos(no/yes) = -160/+130
• Lead change in second half -- YES (Win)

Fair price = +151
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -170/+150
• Field Goal in Quarter 1 -- YES (Win)

Fair price = +102
Westgate (no/yes) = -120/+100
CG Technology(no/yes) = -110/-120
Wynn (no/yes) = +100/-120
South Point (no/yes) = -110/-110
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -120/EV
• Field Goal in Quarter 2 -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -258
Westgate (no/yes) = +240/-280
• Field Goal in Quarter 3 -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +107
Westgate (no/yes) = -110/-110
South Point (no/yes) = -110/-110
• Field Goal in Quarter 4 -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -146
Westgate (no/yes) = +155/-175
• First downs of both teams under 39.5 (Loss)

Fair price = -111
South Point (un/ov) = -110/-110
• Final score odd -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = -124
Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -125/+105
• Will any quarter be tied? -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -134
Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -130/+110

## Props on the Highest Scoring Quarter

• First quarter highest scoring (tie loses) -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +782
Wynn = +450
• Second quarter highest scoring (tie loses) -- YES (Win)

Fair price = +221
Wynn = +180
• Third quarter highest scoring (tie loses) -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +650
Wynn = +350
• Fourth quarter highest scoring (tie loses) -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +227
Wynn = +180
• Tie for quarter highest scoring -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +637
Wynn = +220
• First quarter highest scoring (tie pushes) -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +662
Westgate = +450
• Second quarter highest scoring (tie pushes) -- YES (Win)

Fair price = +177
Westgate = +150
• Third quarter highest scoring (tie pushes) -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +548
Westgate = +350
• Fourth quarter highest scoring (tie pushes) -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +183
Westgate = +200
• Letters in last name of first touchdown scorer under 6.5 (Win)

Fair price = -227
Golden Nugget (under/over) = +125/-145

## Props on the Seahawks

• Seahawks score in all four quarters -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +276
Westgate (no/yes) = -300/+250
MGM (no/yes) = -320/+250
CG Technology (no/yes) = -320/+250
Wynn (no/yes) = -300/+250
South Point (no/yes) = -280/+240
Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -350/+250
• Kicking points by Steven Hauschka (Sea) under 7.5 (Win)

Fair price = -118
Westgate (under/over) = +105/-125
CG Technology (under/over) = -115/-115
Golden Nugget (under/over) = +105/-125
• Field Goals by Hauschka (Sea) under 1.5 (Win)

Fair price = -104
Westgate (under/over) = +115/-135
• First downs by Seahawks under 19 (Loss)

Fair price = +151
South Point (under/over) = -110/-110
Golden Nugget (under/over) = -110/-110
• First downs by Seahawks under 19.5 (Loss)

Fair price = +120
Wynn (under/over) = -120/+100
• Seahawks score Touchdown in Quarter 1 -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +119
CG Technology (no/yes) = -140/+110
Wynn (no/yes) = -155/+135
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -150/+130
• Seahawks score Touchdown in Quarter 2 -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -147
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +140/-160
• Seahawks score Touchdown in Quarter 3 -- YES (Win)

Fair price = +109
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -110/-110
• Seahawks score Touchdown in Quarter 4 -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = -136
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +130/-150
• Seahawks under 3.5 points in first quarter -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -110
• Seahawks first score a touchdown -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -166
South Point (no/yes) = +115/-135
• Seahawks last score a touchdown -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -166
South Point (no/yes) = +160/-190
• Seahawks final score an even number -- YES (Win)

Fair price = +103
Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -140/+110

## Props on the Patriots

• Patriots score all four quarters -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +247
Westgate (no/yes) = -280/+240
South Point (no/yes) = -300/+250
Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -350/+250
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -250/+210
• Kicking points by Stephen Gostkowski (Pat) under 7.5 (Win)

Fair price = -108
• Patriots score Touchdown in Quarter 1 -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +108
Westgate (no/yes) = -150/+130
CG Technology (no/yes) = -130/+100
Wynn (no/yes) = -140/+120
South Point (no/yes) = -150/+130
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -145/+125
• Patriots score Touchdown in Quarter 2 -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -161
Westgate (no/yes) = +145/-165
South Point (no/yes) = +145/-165
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +150/-170
• Patriots score Touchdown in Quarter 3 -- YES (Loss)

Fair price = +100
Westgate (no/yes) = -110/-110
South Point (no/yes) = -110/-110
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -110/-110
• Patriots score Touchdown in Quarter 4 -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -144
Westgate (no/yes) = +135/-155
South Point (no/yes) = +135/-155
Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +130/-150
• First downs by Patriots under 20.5 (Loss)

Fair price = -102
Westgate (under/over) = -110/-110
Wynn (under/over) = -125/+105
South Point (under/over) = -110/-110
Coast Casinos (un/ov) = -115/-115
• Patriots under 3.5 points in first quarter -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -101
• Patriots first score a touchdown -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -175
South Point (no/yes) = +115/-135
• Patriots last score a touchdown -- YES (Win)

Fair price = -169
South Point (no/yes) = +160/-190
• Patriots final score an even number -- YES (Win)

Fair price = +103
Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -140/+110