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Last Updated: September 17, 2014

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Alternate Totals in the NFL

Introduction

The purpose of this page is to show the probability of winning and fair line to pay after buying or selling up to seven points off the total in the NFL. These tables assume the probability of winning is 50% with no extra points. They are based on data from the 1994 to 2012 seasons.

The following table shows the probability of winning after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.

Probability of Winning after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.Expand

Fair
Line
Points Purchased
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
33 0.522 0.54 0.557 0.566 0.576 0.587 0.597 0.623 0.65 0.663 0.676 0.684 0.692 0.71
33.5 0.518 0.536 0.545 0.555 0.565 0.575 0.602 0.628 0.641 0.655 0.663 0.671 0.688 0.706
34 0.518 0.528 0.537 0.547 0.558 0.584 0.61 0.623 0.637 0.645 0.653 0.671 0.688 0.711
34.5 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.539 0.566 0.592 0.605 0.619 0.627 0.635 0.652 0.67 0.693 0.715
35 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.555 0.581 0.594 0.607 0.616 0.624 0.641 0.659 0.682 0.704 0.711
35.5 0.51 0.521 0.546 0.57 0.583 0.597 0.605 0.613 0.631 0.648 0.671 0.693 0.7 0.708
36 0.51 0.536 0.561 0.574 0.587 0.595 0.603 0.621 0.639 0.661 0.683 0.691 0.698 0.716
36.5 0.526 0.552 0.565 0.577 0.585 0.593 0.611 0.629 0.651 0.673 0.681 0.688 0.707 0.725
37 0.526 0.539 0.552 0.559 0.567 0.585 0.603 0.625 0.648 0.655 0.662 0.681 0.699 0.717
37.5 0.513 0.526 0.534 0.541 0.559 0.577 0.599 0.622 0.629 0.636 0.655 0.673 0.691 0.708
38 0.513 0.521 0.529 0.545 0.563 0.585 0.608 0.615 0.622 0.641 0.659 0.677 0.694 0.711
38.5 0.508 0.516 0.533 0.549 0.572 0.594 0.601 0.609 0.627 0.646 0.663 0.681 0.698 0.715
39 0.508 0.525 0.542 0.563 0.586 0.593 0.6 0.619 0.637 0.655 0.672 0.689 0.706 0.719
39.5 0.518 0.535 0.557 0.577 0.585 0.592 0.61 0.629 0.646 0.664 0.681 0.698 0.71 0.723
40 0.518 0.54 0.561 0.568 0.575 0.594 0.612 0.629 0.647 0.664 0.681 0.694 0.706 0.725
40.5 0.522 0.544 0.551 0.558 0.576 0.595 0.612 0.63 0.647 0.664 0.677 0.689 0.708 0.726
41 0.522 0.53 0.536 0.554 0.572 0.59 0.607 0.624 0.641 0.654 0.666 0.685 0.703 0.723
41.5 0.507 0.514 0.532 0.549 0.567 0.584 0.601 0.618 0.631 0.643 0.662 0.68 0.701 0.721
42 0.507 0.525 0.543 0.559 0.577 0.594 0.611 0.623 0.636 0.654 0.673 0.693 0.713 0.725
42.5 0.518 0.537 0.553 0.569 0.586 0.603 0.616 0.629 0.647 0.666 0.686 0.706 0.717 0.728
43 0.518 0.536 0.552 0.568 0.585 0.598 0.61 0.629 0.647 0.667 0.688 0.699 0.71 0.724
43.5 0.517 0.535 0.551 0.567 0.579 0.592 0.61 0.629 0.649 0.669 0.68 0.692 0.705 0.719
44 0.517 0.534 0.55 0.562 0.575 0.593 0.612 0.632 0.652 0.663 0.674 0.688 0.702 0.724
44.5 0.517 0.534 0.546 0.557 0.576 0.594 0.615 0.635 0.646 0.657 0.671 0.684 0.706 0.729
45 0.517 0.529 0.541 0.558 0.577 0.597 0.618 0.629 0.64 0.653 0.667 0.689 0.711 0.722
45.5 0.513 0.525 0.542 0.56 0.58 0.6 0.611 0.623 0.636 0.65 0.672 0.694 0.705 0.716
46 0.513 0.531 0.548 0.567 0.587 0.599 0.61 0.623 0.637 0.659 0.681 0.692 0.703 0.714
46.5 0.518 0.536 0.556 0.575 0.586 0.597 0.611 0.624 0.646 0.668 0.68 0.691 0.701 0.712
47 0.518 0.538 0.558 0.568 0.579 0.593 0.606 0.628 0.651 0.662 0.673 0.684 0.694 0.705
47.5 0.52 0.54 0.551 0.561 0.575 0.588 0.61 0.633 0.644 0.655 0.666 0.676 0.687 0.698
48 0.52 0.531 0.542 0.554 0.568 0.59 0.612 0.623 0.635 0.645 0.656 0.667 0.677
48.5 0.511 0.522 0.535 0.548 0.57 0.592 0.603 0.614 0.625 0.636 0.646 0.657
49 0.511 0.524 0.537 0.558 0.58 0.591 0.602 0.613 0.624 0.634 0.645
49.5 0.514 0.527 0.548 0.569 0.58 0.591 0.602 0.612 0.623 0.633
50 0.514 0.535 0.556 0.567 0.578 0.588 0.599 0.61 0.62
50.5 0.522 0.544 0.554 0.565 0.575 0.586 0.597 0.607
51 0.522 0.533 0.544 0.554 0.564 0.575 0.586
51.5 0.511 0.522 0.532 0.542 0.553 0.563
52 0.511 0.522 0.532 0.542 0.552
52.5 0.511 0.521 0.531 0.541
53 0.511 0.521 0.531
53.5 0.511 0.521
54 0.511

The following table shows the fair line after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.

Fair Line after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.

Fair
Line
Points Purchased
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
33 -109 -117 -126 -131 -136 -142 -148 -166 -185 -197 -209 -217 -225 -245
33.5 -108 -115 -120 -125 -130 -136 -151 -169 -179 -190 -196 -204 -221 -240
34 -108 -112 -116 -121 -126 -140 -157 -166 -175 -181 -188 -204 -221 -246
34.5 -104 -108 -113 -117 -130 -145 -153 -162 -168 -174 -188 -203 -225 -251
35 -104 -108 -113 -125 -139 -146 -155 -160 -166 -179 -193 -214 -238 -246
35.5 -104 -109 -120 -133 -140 -148 -153 -158 -171 -184 -204 -226 -234 -242
36 -104 -116 -128 -135 -142 -147 -152 -164 -177 -195 -216 -223 -231 -253
36.5 -111 -123 -130 -136 -141 -146 -157 -169 -187 -206 -213 -221 -241 -264
37 -111 -117 -123 -127 -131 -141 -152 -167 -184 -190 -196 -213 -233 -253
37.5 -105 -111 -115 -118 -127 -136 -150 -164 -170 -175 -190 -206 -223 -243
38 -105 -109 -112 -120 -129 -141 -155 -160 -165 -178 -194 -209 -227 -246
38.5 -103 -107 -114 -122 -134 -146 -151 -156 -168 -182 -197 -213 -231 -250
39 -103 -111 -119 -129 -141 -146 -150 -162 -176 -190 -205 -222 -240 -256
39.5 -107 -115 -125 -137 -141 -145 -157 -169 -183 -197 -213 -231 -245 -261
40 -107 -117 -128 -131 -135 -146 -158 -170 -183 -198 -214 -226 -240 -263
40.5 -109 -119 -123 -126 -136 -147 -158 -170 -183 -198 -209 -222 -242 -265
41 -109 -113 -116 -124 -134 -144 -154 -166 -179 -189 -200 -217 -237 -262
41.5 -103 -106 -114 -122 -131 -140 -151 -162 -171 -180 -196 -213 -234 -258
42 -103 -111 -119 -127 -136 -146 -157 -165 -175 -189 -206 -226 -249 -263
42.5 -108 -116 -124 -132 -142 -152 -160 -169 -183 -199 -218 -240 -254 -268
43 -108 -115 -123 -131 -141 -149 -157 -169 -183 -201 -220 -232 -245 -262
43.5 -107 -115 -123 -131 -138 -145 -157 -169 -185 -202 -213 -224 -239 -256
44 -107 -115 -122 -128 -135 -146 -157 -172 -187 -197 -207 -221 -235 -262
44.5 -107 -114 -120 -126 -136 -146 -159 -174 -183 -192 -204 -217 -241 -268
45 -107 -112 -118 -127 -136 -148 -161 -169 -178 -189 -200 -222 -246 -260
45.5 -105 -110 -119 -127 -138 -150 -157 -165 -175 -185 -205 -227 -239 -252
46 -105 -113 -121 -131 -142 -149 -156 -165 -175 -193 -214 -225 -237 -250
46.5 -108 -116 -125 -135 -141 -148 -157 -166 -183 -202 -212 -223 -235 -247
47 -108 -117 -126 -131 -138 -146 -154 -169 -186 -196 -206 -216 -227 -239
47.5 -108 -117 -123 -128 -135 -143 -157 -172 -181 -190 -199 -209 -219 -231
48 -108 -113 -118 -124 -132 -144 -158 -166 -174 -182 -191 -200 -210
48.5 -105 -109 -115 -121 -132 -145 -152 -159 -167 -174 -183 -191
49 -105 -110 -116 -126 -138 -145 -151 -158 -166 -174 -182
49.5 -106 -111 -121 -132 -138 -144 -151 -158 -165 -173
50 -106 -115 -125 -131 -137 -143 -150 -156 -163
50.5 -109 -119 -124 -130 -136 -142 -148 -155
51 -109 -114 -119 -124 -130 -135 -141
51.5 -105 -109 -114 -118 -124 -129
52 -105 -109 -114 -118 -123
52.5 -104 -109 -113 -118
53 -104 -109 -113
53.5 -104 -109
54 -104

The following table shows the probability of winning after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.

Probability of Winning after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Over.

Fair
Line
Points Purchased
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
33 0.522
33.5 0.522 0.543
34 0.518 0.54 0.56
34.5 0.518 0.536 0.557 0.577
35 0.51 0.528 0.545 0.565 0.587
35.5 0.51 0.52 0.537 0.554 0.576 0.598
36 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.547 0.565 0.587 0.609
36.5 0.51 0.521 0.53 0.539 0.558 0.576 0.598 0.62
37 0.526 0.537 0.546 0.556 0.566 0.584 0.602 0.624 0.646
37.5 0.526 0.552 0.562 0.572 0.582 0.592 0.61 0.628 0.65 0.672
38 0.513 0.539 0.564 0.574 0.584 0.594 0.604 0.622 0.64 0.662 0.684
38.5 0.513 0.526 0.551 0.576 0.586 0.597 0.607 0.617 0.635 0.653 0.675 0.697
39 0.508 0.521 0.534 0.558 0.584 0.595 0.605 0.615 0.625 0.643 0.662 0.683 0.705
39.5 0.508 0.516 0.528 0.541 0.567 0.594 0.604 0.614 0.624 0.634 0.652 0.671 0.692 0.714
40 0.518 0.526 0.533 0.546 0.559 0.585 0.612 0.622 0.632 0.642 0.652 0.671 0.689 0.711
40.5 0.518 0.535 0.543 0.55 0.564 0.577 0.603 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.688 0.707
41 0.522 0.54 0.557 0.564 0.572 0.585 0.599 0.625 0.651 0.662 0.672 0.682 0.692 0.71
41.5 0.522 0.544 0.561 0.578 0.586 0.594 0.607 0.62 0.647 0.673 0.683 0.694 0.704 0.714
42 0.507 0.529 0.551 0.567 0.585 0.593 0.601 0.614 0.627 0.654 0.68 0.691 0.701 0.711
42.5 0.507 0.514 0.536 0.557 0.574 0.592 0.6 0.608 0.621 0.635 0.661 0.687 0.698 0.708
43 0.518 0.526 0.533 0.553 0.576 0.594 0.611 0.619 0.627 0.641 0.654 0.68 0.707 0.717
43.5 0.518 0.537 0.543 0.55 0.573 0.595 0.613 0.631 0.639 0.647 0.66 0.673 0.7 0.726
44 0.517 0.535 0.553 0.56 0.567 0.59 0.612 0.63 0.648 0.656 0.664 0.677 0.69 0.716
44.5 0.517 0.535 0.552 0.569 0.577 0.584 0.606 0.629 0.646 0.664 0.672 0.68 0.694 0.707
45 0.517 0.534 0.551 0.568 0.586 0.594 0.601 0.623 0.646 0.664 0.681 0.689 0.697 0.711
45.5 0.517 0.534 0.55 0.567 0.585 0.603 0.611 0.618 0.64 0.663 0.681 0.698 0.706 0.715
46 0.513 0.529 0.545 0.562 0.579 0.598 0.616 0.623 0.631 0.653 0.675 0.693 0.711 0.719
46.5 0.513 0.525 0.541 0.557 0.574 0.592 0.61 0.629 0.636 0.643 0.666 0.688 0.706 0.724
47 0.518 0.531 0.543 0.559 0.576 0.593 0.611 0.629 0.647 0.655 0.662 0.684 0.707 0.725
47.5 0.518 0.536 0.548 0.56 0.577 0.594 0.612 0.629 0.648 0.666 0.673 0.681 0.703 0.725
48 0.52 0.538 0.556 0.568 0.58 0.597 0.614 0.632 0.649 0.668 0.686 0.693 0.701 0.723
48.5 0.52 0.54 0.558 0.575 0.587 0.6 0.617 0.634 0.652 0.669 0.688 0.706 0.713 0.721
49 0.511 0.531 0.55 0.568 0.586 0.599 0.611 0.628 0.645 0.663 0.68 0.699 0.717 0.724
49.5 0.511 0.522 0.541 0.56 0.579 0.597 0.61 0.622 0.639 0.656 0.674 0.691 0.71 0.728
50 0.514 0.524 0.535 0.554 0.574 0.593 0.611 0.624 0.636 0.653 0.67 0.688 0.705 0.724
50.5 0.514 0.527 0.538 0.548 0.568 0.589 0.607 0.625 0.638 0.651 0.668 0.685 0.702 0.72
51 0.522 0.535 0.548 0.559 0.57 0.59 0.611 0.629 0.647 0.66 0.673 0.69 0.707 0.724
51.5 0.522 0.544 0.557 0.569 0.58 0.592 0.612 0.632 0.651 0.669 0.682 0.694 0.711 0.728
52 0.511 0.533 0.554 0.566 0.58 0.591 0.602 0.623 0.643 0.661 0.68 0.692 0.705 0.722
52.5 0.511 0.522 0.543 0.564 0.577 0.591 0.602 0.613 0.633 0.654 0.672 0.691 0.703 0.716
53 0.511 0.522 0.532 0.553 0.575 0.588 0.602 0.613 0.624 0.645 0.665 0.683 0.702 0.714
53.5 0.511 0.521 0.532 0.542 0.564 0.586 0.6 0.614 0.625 0.636 0.656 0.676 0.695 0.713
54 0.511 0.521 0.531 0.542 0.553 0.575 0.597 0.611 0.624 0.635 0.646 0.667 0.687 0.706

The following table shows the fair line after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.

Fair Line after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.

Fair
Line
Points Purchased
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
33 -109
33.5 -109 -119
34 -108 -117 -128
34.5 -108 -115 -126 -136
35 -104 -112 -120 -130 -142
35.5 -104 -108 -116 -124 -136 -149
36 -104 -108 -113 -121 -130 -142 -155
36.5 -104 -109 -113 -117 -126 -136 -148 -163
37 -111 -116 -120 -125 -130 -140 -151 -166 -182
37.5 -111 -123 -128 -133 -139 -145 -156 -169 -186 -205
38 -105 -117 -129 -135 -141 -146 -153 -165 -178 -196 -217
38.5 -105 -111 -123 -136 -142 -148 -154 -161 -174 -188 -208 -230
39 -103 -109 -114 -126 -141 -147 -153 -160 -167 -180 -195 -216 -239
39.5 -103 -107 -112 -118 -131 -146 -152 -159 -166 -174 -188 -204 -225 -250
40 -107 -111 -114 -120 -127 -141 -157 -165 -172 -180 -188 -204 -221 -245
40.5 -107 -115 -119 -122 -129 -136 -152 -170 -178 -186 -194 -203 -221 -241
41 -109 -117 -126 -129 -134 -141 -149 -167 -187 -196 -205 -215 -225 -245
41.5 -109 -119 -128 -137 -141 -146 -155 -163 -183 -206 -216 -227 -238 -250
42 -103 -112 -122 -131 -141 -146 -151 -159 -168 -189 -213 -223 -234 -246
42.5 -103 -106 -115 -126 -135 -145 -150 -155 -164 -174 -195 -220 -231 -243
43 -108 -111 -114 -124 -136 -146 -157 -163 -168 -178 -189 -213 -241 -253
43.5 -108 -116 -119 -122 -134 -147 -158 -171 -177 -183 -194 -206 -233 -265
44 -107 -115 -124 -127 -131 -144 -158 -170 -184 -190 -197 -209 -223 -253
44.5 -107 -115 -123 -132 -136 -140 -154 -169 -183 -198 -205 -213 -226 -241
45 -107 -115 -123 -131 -142 -146 -151 -166 -182 -197 -214 -222 -230 -246
45.5 -107 -114 -122 -131 -141 -152 -157 -162 -178 -197 -213 -232 -241 -250
46 -105 -112 -120 -128 -138 -149 -160 -166 -171 -188 -208 -226 -246 -256
46.5 -105 -110 -118 -126 -135 -145 -157 -169 -175 -180 -199 -221 -240 -262
47 -108 -113 -119 -127 -136 -146 -157 -170 -184 -190 -196 -217 -241 -263
47.5 -108 -116 -121 -127 -137 -146 -158 -170 -184 -199 -206 -213 -237 -264
48 -108 -117 -125 -131 -138 -148 -159 -172 -185 -201 -219 -226 -234 -261
48.5 -108 -117 -126 -135 -142 -150 -161 -173 -187 -202 -220 -240 -249 -258
49 -105 -113 -122 -131 -142 -149 -157 -169 -182 -196 -213 -232 -253 -263
49.5 -105 -109 -118 -127 -137 -148 -156 -165 -177 -191 -207 -224 -245 -268
50 -106 -110 -115 -124 -135 -146 -157 -166 -175 -189 -203 -220 -239 -262
50.5 -106 -111 -116 -121 -132 -143 -154 -167 -176 -186 -201 -217 -236 -257
51 -109 -115 -121 -127 -132 -144 -157 -169 -184 -194 -205 -222 -241 -262
51.5 -109 -119 -126 -132 -138 -145 -158 -172 -186 -202 -214 -227 -246 -268
52 -105 -114 -124 -131 -138 -145 -151 -165 -180 -195 -212 -225 -239 -260
52.5 -105 -109 -119 -129 -137 -144 -151 -158 -173 -189 -205 -223 -237 -252
53 -104 -109 -114 -124 -135 -143 -151 -159 -166 -181 -199 -216 -235 -250
53.5 -104 -109 -114 -118 -129 -142 -150 -159 -166 -175 -191 -209 -228 -249
54 -104 -109 -113 -118 -124 -135 -148 -157 -166 -174 -183 -200 -220 -240

The following table shows the probability of winning after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.

Probability of Winning after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.

Fair
Line
Points Sold
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
33 0.478
33.5 0.478 0.457
34 0.482 0.46 0.44
34.5 0.482 0.464 0.443 0.423
35 0.49 0.472 0.455 0.435 0.413
35.5 0.49 0.48 0.463 0.446 0.424 0.402
36 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.453 0.435 0.413 0.391
36.5 0.49 0.479 0.47 0.461 0.442 0.424 0.402 0.38
37 0.474 0.463 0.454 0.444 0.434 0.416 0.398 0.376 0.354
37.5 0.474 0.448 0.438 0.428 0.418 0.408 0.39 0.372 0.35 0.328
38 0.487 0.461 0.436 0.426 0.416 0.406 0.396 0.378 0.36 0.338 0.316
38.5 0.487 0.474 0.449 0.424 0.414 0.403 0.393 0.383 0.365 0.347 0.325 0.303
39 0.492 0.479 0.466 0.442 0.416 0.405 0.395 0.385 0.375 0.357 0.338 0.317 0.295
39.5 0.492 0.484 0.472 0.459 0.433 0.406 0.396 0.386 0.376 0.366 0.348 0.329 0.308 0.286
40 0.482 0.474 0.467 0.454 0.441 0.415 0.388 0.378 0.368 0.358 0.348 0.329 0.311 0.289
40.5 0.482 0.465 0.457 0.45 0.436 0.423 0.397 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.312 0.293
41 0.478 0.46 0.443 0.436 0.428 0.415 0.401 0.375 0.349 0.338 0.328 0.318 0.308 0.29
41.5 0.478 0.456 0.439 0.422 0.414 0.406 0.393 0.38 0.353 0.327 0.317 0.306 0.296 0.286
42 0.493 0.471 0.449 0.433 0.415 0.407 0.399 0.386 0.373 0.346 0.32 0.309 0.299 0.289
42.5 0.493 0.486 0.464 0.443 0.426 0.408 0.4 0.392 0.379 0.365 0.339 0.313 0.302 0.292
43 0.482 0.474 0.467 0.447 0.424 0.406 0.389 0.381 0.373 0.359 0.346 0.32 0.293 0.283
43.5 0.482 0.463 0.457 0.45 0.427 0.405 0.387 0.369 0.361 0.353 0.34 0.327 0.3 0.274
44 0.483 0.465 0.447 0.44 0.433 0.41 0.388 0.37 0.352 0.344 0.336 0.323 0.31 0.284
44.5 0.483 0.465 0.448 0.431 0.423 0.416 0.394 0.371 0.354 0.336 0.328 0.32 0.306 0.293
45 0.483 0.466 0.449 0.432 0.414 0.406 0.399 0.377 0.354 0.336 0.319 0.311 0.303 0.289
45.5 0.483 0.466 0.45 0.433 0.415 0.397 0.389 0.382 0.36 0.337 0.319 0.302 0.294 0.285
46 0.487 0.471 0.455 0.438 0.421 0.402 0.384 0.377 0.369 0.347 0.325 0.307 0.289 0.281
46.5 0.487 0.475 0.459 0.443 0.426 0.408 0.39 0.371 0.364 0.357 0.334 0.312 0.294 0.276
47 0.482 0.469 0.457 0.441 0.424 0.407 0.389 0.371 0.353 0.345 0.338 0.316 0.293 0.275
47.5 0.482 0.464 0.452 0.44 0.423 0.406 0.388 0.371 0.352 0.334 0.327 0.319 0.297 0.275
48 0.48 0.462 0.444 0.432 0.42 0.403 0.386 0.368 0.351 0.332 0.314 0.307 0.299 0.277
48.5 0.48 0.46 0.442 0.425 0.413 0.4 0.383 0.366 0.348 0.331 0.312 0.294 0.287 0.279
49 0.489 0.469 0.45 0.432 0.414 0.401 0.389 0.372 0.355 0.337 0.32 0.301 0.283 0.276
49.5 0.489 0.478 0.459 0.44 0.421 0.403 0.39 0.378 0.361 0.344 0.326 0.309 0.29 0.272
50 0.486 0.476 0.465 0.446 0.426 0.407 0.389 0.376 0.364 0.347 0.33 0.312 0.295 0.276
50.5 0.486 0.473 0.462 0.452 0.432 0.411 0.393 0.375 0.362 0.349 0.332 0.315 0.298 0.28
51 0.478 0.465 0.452 0.441 0.43 0.41 0.389 0.371 0.353 0.34 0.327 0.31 0.293 0.276
51.5 0.478 0.456 0.443 0.431 0.42 0.408 0.388 0.368 0.349 0.331 0.318 0.306 0.289 0.272
52 0.489 0.467 0.446 0.434 0.42 0.409 0.398 0.377 0.357 0.339 0.32 0.308 0.295 0.278
52.5 0.489 0.478 0.457 0.436 0.423 0.409 0.398 0.387 0.367 0.346 0.328 0.309 0.297 0.284
53 0.489 0.478 0.468 0.447 0.425 0.412 0.398 0.387 0.376 0.355 0.335 0.317 0.298 0.286
53.5 0.489 0.479 0.468 0.458 0.436 0.414 0.4 0.386 0.375 0.364 0.344 0.324 0.305 0.287
54 0.489 0.479 0.469 0.458 0.447 0.425 0.403 0.389 0.376 0.365 0.354 0.333 0.313 0.294

The following table shows the fair line after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.

Fair Line after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.

Fair
Line
Points Sold
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
33 109
33.5 109 119
34 108 117 128
34.5 108 115 126 136
35 104 112 120 130 142
35.5 104 108 116 124 136 149
36 104 108 113 121 130 142 155
36.5 104 109 113 117 126 136 148 163
37 111 116 120 125 130 140 151 166 182
37.5 111 123 128 133 139 145 156 169 186 205
38 105 117 129 135 141 146 153 165 178 196 217
38.5 105 111 123 136 142 148 154 161 174 188 208 230
39 103 109 114 126 141 147 153 160 167 180 195 216 239
39.5 103 107 112 118 131 146 152 159 166 174 188 204 225 250
40 107 111 114 120 127 141 157 165 172 180 188 204 221 245
40.5 107 115 119 122 129 136 152 170 178 186 194 203 221 241
41 109 117 126 129 134 141 149 167 187 196 205 215 225 245
41.5 109 119 128 137 141 146 155 163 183 206 216 227 238 250
42 103 112 122 131 141 146 151 159 168 189 213 223 234 246
42.5 103 106 115 126 135 145 150 155 164 174 195 220 231 243
43 108 111 114 124 136 146 157 163 168 178 189 213 241 253
43.5 108 116 119 122 134 147 158 171 177 183 194 206 233 265
44 107 115 124 127 131 144 158 170 184 190 197 209 223 253
44.5 107 115 123 132 136 140 154 169 183 198 205 213 226 241
45 107 115 123 131 142 146 151 166 182 197 214 222 230 246
45.5 107 114 122 131 141 152 157 162 178 197 213 232 241 250
46 105 112 120 128 138 149 160 166 171 188 208 226 246 256
46.5 105 110 118 126 135 145 157 169 175 180 199 221 240 262
47 108 113 119 127 136 146 157 170 184 190 196 217 241 263
47.5 108 116 121 127 137 146 158 170 184 199 206 213 237 264
48 108 117 125 131 138 148 159 172 185 201 219 226 234 261
48.5 108 117 126 135 142 150 161 173 187 202 220 240 249 258
49 105 113 122 131 142 149 157 169 182 196 213 232 253 263
49.5 105 109 118 127 137 148 156 165 177 191 207 224 245 268
50 106 110 115 124 135 146 157 166 175 189 203 220 239 262
50.5 106 111 116 121 132 143 154 167 176 186 201 217 236 257
51 109 115 121 127 132 144 157 169 184 194 205 222 241 262
51.5 109 119 126 132 138 145 158 172 186 202 214 227 246 268
52 105 114 124 131 138 145 151 165 180 195 212 225 239 260
52.5 105 109 119 129 137 144 151 158 173 189 205 223 237 252
53 104 109 114 124 135 143 151 159 166 181 199 216 235 250
53.5 104 109 114 118 129 142 150 159 166 175 191 209 228 249
54 104 109 113 118 124 135 148 157 166 174 183 200 220 240

The following table shows the probability of winning after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.

Probability of Winning after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Over.

Fair
Line
Points Sold
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
33 0.478 0.46 0.443 0.434 0.424 0.413 0.403 0.377 0.35 0.337 0.324 0.316 0.308 0.29
33.5 0.482 0.464 0.455 0.445 0.435 0.425 0.398 0.372 0.359 0.345 0.337 0.329 0.312 0.294
34 0.482 0.472 0.463 0.453 0.442 0.416 0.39 0.377 0.363 0.355 0.347 0.329 0.312 0.289
34.5 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.461 0.434 0.408 0.395 0.381 0.373 0.365 0.348 0.33 0.307 0.285
35 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.445 0.419 0.406 0.393 0.384 0.376 0.359 0.341 0.318 0.296 0.289
35.5 0.49 0.479 0.454 0.43 0.417 0.403 0.395 0.387 0.369 0.352 0.329 0.307 0.3 0.292
36 0.49 0.464 0.439 0.426 0.413 0.405 0.397 0.379 0.361 0.339 0.317 0.309 0.302 0.284
36.5 0.474 0.448 0.435 0.423 0.415 0.407 0.389 0.371 0.349 0.327 0.319 0.312 0.293 0.275
37 0.474 0.461 0.448 0.441 0.433 0.415 0.397 0.375 0.352 0.345 0.338 0.319 0.301 0.283
37.5 0.487 0.474 0.466 0.459 0.441 0.423 0.401 0.378 0.371 0.364 0.345 0.327 0.309 0.292
38 0.487 0.479 0.471 0.455 0.437 0.415 0.392 0.385 0.378 0.359 0.341 0.323 0.306 0.289
38.5 0.492 0.484 0.467 0.451 0.428 0.406 0.399 0.391 0.373 0.354 0.337 0.319 0.302 0.285
39 0.492 0.475 0.458 0.437 0.414 0.407 0.4 0.381 0.363 0.345 0.328 0.311 0.294 0.281
39.5 0.482 0.465 0.443 0.423 0.415 0.408 0.39 0.371 0.354 0.336 0.319 0.302 0.29 0.277
40 0.482 0.46 0.439 0.432 0.425 0.406 0.388 0.371 0.353 0.336 0.319 0.306 0.294 0.275
40.5 0.478 0.456 0.449 0.442 0.424 0.405 0.388 0.37 0.353 0.336 0.323 0.311 0.292 0.274
41 0.478 0.47 0.464 0.446 0.428 0.41 0.393 0.376 0.359 0.346 0.334 0.315 0.297 0.277
41.5 0.493 0.486 0.468 0.451 0.433 0.416 0.399 0.382 0.369 0.357 0.338 0.32 0.299 0.279
42 0.493 0.475 0.457 0.441 0.423 0.406 0.389 0.377 0.364 0.346 0.327 0.307 0.287 0.275
42.5 0.482 0.463 0.447 0.431 0.414 0.397 0.384 0.371 0.353 0.334 0.314 0.294 0.283 0.272
43 0.482 0.464 0.448 0.432 0.415 0.402 0.39 0.371 0.353 0.333 0.312 0.301 0.29 0.276
43.5 0.483 0.465 0.449 0.433 0.421 0.408 0.39 0.371 0.351 0.331 0.32 0.308 0.295 0.281
44 0.483 0.466 0.45 0.438 0.425 0.407 0.388 0.368 0.348 0.337 0.326 0.312 0.298 0.276
44.5 0.483 0.466 0.454 0.443 0.424 0.406 0.385 0.365 0.354 0.343 0.329 0.316 0.294 0.271
45 0.483 0.471 0.459 0.442 0.423 0.403 0.382 0.371 0.36 0.347 0.333 0.311 0.289 0.278
45.5 0.487 0.475 0.458 0.44 0.42 0.4 0.389 0.377 0.364 0.35 0.328 0.306 0.295 0.284
46 0.487 0.469 0.452 0.433 0.413 0.401 0.39 0.377 0.363 0.341 0.319 0.308 0.297 0.286
46.5 0.482 0.464 0.444 0.425 0.414 0.403 0.389 0.376 0.354 0.332 0.32 0.309 0.299 0.288
47 0.482 0.462 0.442 0.432 0.421 0.407 0.394 0.372 0.349 0.338 0.327 0.316 0.306 0.295
47.5 0.48 0.46 0.449 0.439 0.425 0.412 0.39 0.367 0.356 0.345 0.334 0.324 0.313 0.302
48 0.48 0.469 0.458 0.446 0.432 0.41 0.388 0.377 0.365 0.355 0.344 0.333 0.323
48.5 0.489 0.478 0.465 0.452 0.43 0.408 0.397 0.386 0.375 0.364 0.354 0.343
49 0.489 0.476 0.463 0.442 0.42 0.409 0.398 0.387 0.376 0.366 0.355
49.5 0.486 0.473 0.452 0.431 0.42 0.409 0.398 0.388 0.377 0.367
50 0.486 0.465 0.444 0.433 0.422 0.412 0.401 0.39 0.38
50.5 0.478 0.456 0.446 0.435 0.425 0.414 0.403 0.393
51 0.478 0.467 0.456 0.446 0.436 0.425 0.414
51.5 0.489 0.478 0.468 0.458 0.447 0.437
52 0.489 0.478 0.468 0.458 0.448
52.5 0.489 0.479 0.469 0.459
53 0.489 0.479 0.469
53.5 0.489 0.479
54 0.489

The following table shows the fair line after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.

Fair Line after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.

Fair
Line
Points Sold
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
33 109 117 126 131 136 142 148 166 185 197 209 217 225 245
33.5 108 115 120 125 130 136 151 169 179 190 196 204 221 240
34 108 112 116 121 126 140 157 166 175 181 188 204 221 246
34.5 104 108 113 117 130 145 153 162 168 174 188 203 225 251
35 104 108 113 125 139 146 155 160 166 179 193 214 238 246
35.5 104 109 120 133 140 148 153 158 171 184 204 226 234 242
36 104 116 128 135 142 147 152 164 177 195 216 223 231 253
36.5 111 123 130 136 141 146 157 169 187 206 213 221 241 264
37 111 117 123 127 131 141 152 167 184 190 196 213 233 253
37.5 105 111 115 118 127 136 150 164 170 175 190 206 223 243
38 105 109 112 120 129 141 155 160 165 178 194 209 227 246
38.5 103 107 114 122 134 146 151 156 168 182 197 213 231 250
39 103 111 119 129 141 146 150 162 176 190 205 222 240 256
39.5 107 115 125 137 141 145 157 169 183 197 213 231 245 261
40 107 117 128 131 135 146 158 170 183 198 214 226 240 263
40.5 109 119 123 126 136 147 158 170 183 198 209 222 242 265
41 109 113 116 124 134 144 154 166 179 189 200 217 237 262
41.5 103 106 114 122 131 140 151 162 171 180 196 213 234 258
42 103 111 119 127 136 146 157 165 175 189 206 226 249 263
42.5 108 116 124 132 142 152 160 169 183 199 218 240 254 268
43 108 115 123 131 141 149 157 169 183 201 220 232 245 262
43.5 107 115 123 131 138 145 157 169 185 202 213 224 239 256
44 107 115 122 128 135 146 157 172 187 197 207 221 235 262
44.5 107 114 120 126 136 146 159 174 183 192 204 217 241 268
45 107 112 118 127 136 148 161 169 178 189 200 222 246 260
45.5 105 110 119 127 138 150 157 165 175 185 205 227 239 252
46 105 113 121 131 142 149 156 165 175 193 214 225 237 250
46.5 108 116 125 135 141 148 157 166 183 202 212 223 235 247
47 108 117 126 131 138 146 154 169 186 196 206 216 227 239
47.5 108 117 123 128 135 143 157 172 181 190 199 209 219 231
48 108 113 118 124 132 144 158 166 174 182 191 200 210
48.5 105 109 115 121 132 145 152 159 167 174 183 191
49 105 110 116 126 138 145 151 158 166 174 182
49.5 106 111 121 132 138 144 151 158 165 173
50 106 115 125 131 137 143 150 156 163
50.5 109 119 124 130 136 142 148 155
51 109 114 119 124 130 135 141
51.5 105 109 114 118 124 129
52 105 109 114 118 123
52.5 104 109 113 118
53 104 109 113
53.5 104 109
54 104


Written by: Michael Shackleford

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