Alternate Totals in the NFL
Introduction
The purpose of this page is to show the probability of winning and fair line to pay after buying or selling up to seven points off the total in the NFL. These tables assume the probability of winning is 50% with no extra points. They are based on data from the 1994 to 2012 seasons.
The following table shows the probability of winning after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Probability of Winning after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.Expand
Fair Line |
Points Purchased |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
33 | 0.522 | 0.54 | 0.557 | 0.566 | 0.576 | 0.587 | 0.597 | 0.623 | 0.65 | 0.663 | 0.676 | 0.684 | 0.692 | 0.71 |
33.5 | 0.518 | 0.536 | 0.545 | 0.555 | 0.565 | 0.575 | 0.602 | 0.628 | 0.641 | 0.655 | 0.663 | 0.671 | 0.688 | 0.706 |
34 | 0.518 | 0.528 | 0.537 | 0.547 | 0.558 | 0.584 | 0.61 | 0.623 | 0.637 | 0.645 | 0.653 | 0.671 | 0.688 | 0.711 |
34.5 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.539 | 0.566 | 0.592 | 0.605 | 0.619 | 0.627 | 0.635 | 0.652 | 0.67 | 0.693 | 0.715 |
35 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.555 | 0.581 | 0.594 | 0.607 | 0.616 | 0.624 | 0.641 | 0.659 | 0.682 | 0.704 | 0.711 |
35.5 | 0.51 | 0.521 | 0.546 | 0.57 | 0.583 | 0.597 | 0.605 | 0.613 | 0.631 | 0.648 | 0.671 | 0.693 | 0.7 | 0.708 |
36 | 0.51 | 0.536 | 0.561 | 0.574 | 0.587 | 0.595 | 0.603 | 0.621 | 0.639 | 0.661 | 0.683 | 0.691 | 0.698 | 0.716 |
36.5 | 0.526 | 0.552 | 0.565 | 0.577 | 0.585 | 0.593 | 0.611 | 0.629 | 0.651 | 0.673 | 0.681 | 0.688 | 0.707 | 0.725 |
37 | 0.526 | 0.539 | 0.552 | 0.559 | 0.567 | 0.585 | 0.603 | 0.625 | 0.648 | 0.655 | 0.662 | 0.681 | 0.699 | 0.717 |
37.5 | 0.513 | 0.526 | 0.534 | 0.541 | 0.559 | 0.577 | 0.599 | 0.622 | 0.629 | 0.636 | 0.655 | 0.673 | 0.691 | 0.708 |
38 | 0.513 | 0.521 | 0.529 | 0.545 | 0.563 | 0.585 | 0.608 | 0.615 | 0.622 | 0.641 | 0.659 | 0.677 | 0.694 | 0.711 |
38.5 | 0.508 | 0.516 | 0.533 | 0.549 | 0.572 | 0.594 | 0.601 | 0.609 | 0.627 | 0.646 | 0.663 | 0.681 | 0.698 | 0.715 |
39 | 0.508 | 0.525 | 0.542 | 0.563 | 0.586 | 0.593 | 0.6 | 0.619 | 0.637 | 0.655 | 0.672 | 0.689 | 0.706 | 0.719 |
39.5 | 0.518 | 0.535 | 0.557 | 0.577 | 0.585 | 0.592 | 0.61 | 0.629 | 0.646 | 0.664 | 0.681 | 0.698 | 0.71 | 0.723 |
40 | 0.518 | 0.54 | 0.561 | 0.568 | 0.575 | 0.594 | 0.612 | 0.629 | 0.647 | 0.664 | 0.681 | 0.694 | 0.706 | 0.725 |
40.5 | 0.522 | 0.544 | 0.551 | 0.558 | 0.576 | 0.595 | 0.612 | 0.63 | 0.647 | 0.664 | 0.677 | 0.689 | 0.708 | 0.726 |
41 | 0.522 | 0.53 | 0.536 | 0.554 | 0.572 | 0.59 | 0.607 | 0.624 | 0.641 | 0.654 | 0.666 | 0.685 | 0.703 | 0.723 |
41.5 | 0.507 | 0.514 | 0.532 | 0.549 | 0.567 | 0.584 | 0.601 | 0.618 | 0.631 | 0.643 | 0.662 | 0.68 | 0.701 | 0.721 |
42 | 0.507 | 0.525 | 0.543 | 0.559 | 0.577 | 0.594 | 0.611 | 0.623 | 0.636 | 0.654 | 0.673 | 0.693 | 0.713 | 0.725 |
42.5 | 0.518 | 0.537 | 0.553 | 0.569 | 0.586 | 0.603 | 0.616 | 0.629 | 0.647 | 0.666 | 0.686 | 0.706 | 0.717 | 0.728 |
43 | 0.518 | 0.536 | 0.552 | 0.568 | 0.585 | 0.598 | 0.61 | 0.629 | 0.647 | 0.667 | 0.688 | 0.699 | 0.71 | 0.724 |
43.5 | 0.517 | 0.535 | 0.551 | 0.567 | 0.579 | 0.592 | 0.61 | 0.629 | 0.649 | 0.669 | 0.68 | 0.692 | 0.705 | 0.719 |
44 | 0.517 | 0.534 | 0.55 | 0.562 | 0.575 | 0.593 | 0.612 | 0.632 | 0.652 | 0.663 | 0.674 | 0.688 | 0.702 | 0.724 |
44.5 | 0.517 | 0.534 | 0.546 | 0.557 | 0.576 | 0.594 | 0.615 | 0.635 | 0.646 | 0.657 | 0.671 | 0.684 | 0.706 | 0.729 |
45 | 0.517 | 0.529 | 0.541 | 0.558 | 0.577 | 0.597 | 0.618 | 0.629 | 0.64 | 0.653 | 0.667 | 0.689 | 0.711 | 0.722 |
45.5 | 0.513 | 0.525 | 0.542 | 0.56 | 0.58 | 0.6 | 0.611 | 0.623 | 0.636 | 0.65 | 0.672 | 0.694 | 0.705 | 0.716 |
46 | 0.513 | 0.531 | 0.548 | 0.567 | 0.587 | 0.599 | 0.61 | 0.623 | 0.637 | 0.659 | 0.681 | 0.692 | 0.703 | 0.714 |
46.5 | 0.518 | 0.536 | 0.556 | 0.575 | 0.586 | 0.597 | 0.611 | 0.624 | 0.646 | 0.668 | 0.68 | 0.691 | 0.701 | 0.712 |
47 | 0.518 | 0.538 | 0.558 | 0.568 | 0.579 | 0.593 | 0.606 | 0.628 | 0.651 | 0.662 | 0.673 | 0.684 | 0.694 | 0.705 |
47.5 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.551 | 0.561 | 0.575 | 0.588 | 0.61 | 0.633 | 0.644 | 0.655 | 0.666 | 0.676 | 0.687 | 0.698 |
48 | 0.52 | 0.531 | 0.542 | 0.554 | 0.568 | 0.59 | 0.612 | 0.623 | 0.635 | 0.645 | 0.656 | 0.667 | 0.677 | |
48.5 | 0.511 | 0.522 | 0.535 | 0.548 | 0.57 | 0.592 | 0.603 | 0.614 | 0.625 | 0.636 | 0.646 | 0.657 | | |
49 | 0.511 | 0.524 | 0.537 | 0.558 | 0.58 | 0.591 | 0.602 | 0.613 | 0.624 | 0.634 | 0.645 | | | |
49.5 | 0.514 | 0.527 | 0.548 | 0.569 | 0.58 | 0.591 | 0.602 | 0.612 | 0.623 | 0.633 | | | | |
50 | 0.514 | 0.535 | 0.556 | 0.567 | 0.578 | 0.588 | 0.599 | 0.61 | 0.62 | | | | | |
50.5 | 0.522 | 0.544 | 0.554 | 0.565 | 0.575 | 0.586 | 0.597 | 0.607 | | | | | | |
51 | 0.522 | 0.533 | 0.544 | 0.554 | 0.564 | 0.575 | 0.586 | | | | | | | |
51.5 | 0.511 | 0.522 | 0.532 | 0.542 | 0.553 | 0.563 | | | | | | | | |
52 | 0.511 | 0.522 | 0.532 | 0.542 | 0.552 | | | | | | | | | |
52.5 | 0.511 | 0.521 | 0.531 | 0.541 | | | | | | | | | | |
53 | 0.511 | 0.521 | 0.531 | | | | | | | | | | | |
53.5 | 0.511 | 0.521 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
54 | 0.511 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
The following table shows the fair line after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Fair Line after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
Fair Line |
Points Purchased |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
33 | -109 | -117 | -126 | -131 | -136 | -142 | -148 | -166 | -185 | -197 | -209 | -217 | -225 | -245 |
33.5 | -108 | -115 | -120 | -125 | -130 | -136 | -151 | -169 | -179 | -190 | -196 | -204 | -221 | -240 |
34 | -108 | -112 | -116 | -121 | -126 | -140 | -157 | -166 | -175 | -181 | -188 | -204 | -221 | -246 |
34.5 | -104 | -108 | -113 | -117 | -130 | -145 | -153 | -162 | -168 | -174 | -188 | -203 | -225 | -251 |
35 | -104 | -108 | -113 | -125 | -139 | -146 | -155 | -160 | -166 | -179 | -193 | -214 | -238 | -246 |
35.5 | -104 | -109 | -120 | -133 | -140 | -148 | -153 | -158 | -171 | -184 | -204 | -226 | -234 | -242 |
36 | -104 | -116 | -128 | -135 | -142 | -147 | -152 | -164 | -177 | -195 | -216 | -223 | -231 | -253 |
36.5 | -111 | -123 | -130 | -136 | -141 | -146 | -157 | -169 | -187 | -206 | -213 | -221 | -241 | -264 |
37 | -111 | -117 | -123 | -127 | -131 | -141 | -152 | -167 | -184 | -190 | -196 | -213 | -233 | -253 |
37.5 | -105 | -111 | -115 | -118 | -127 | -136 | -150 | -164 | -170 | -175 | -190 | -206 | -223 | -243 |
38 | -105 | -109 | -112 | -120 | -129 | -141 | -155 | -160 | -165 | -178 | -194 | -209 | -227 | -246 |
38.5 | -103 | -107 | -114 | -122 | -134 | -146 | -151 | -156 | -168 | -182 | -197 | -213 | -231 | -250 |
39 | -103 | -111 | -119 | -129 | -141 | -146 | -150 | -162 | -176 | -190 | -205 | -222 | -240 | -256 |
39.5 | -107 | -115 | -125 | -137 | -141 | -145 | -157 | -169 | -183 | -197 | -213 | -231 | -245 | -261 |
40 | -107 | -117 | -128 | -131 | -135 | -146 | -158 | -170 | -183 | -198 | -214 | -226 | -240 | -263 |
40.5 | -109 | -119 | -123 | -126 | -136 | -147 | -158 | -170 | -183 | -198 | -209 | -222 | -242 | -265 |
41 | -109 | -113 | -116 | -124 | -134 | -144 | -154 | -166 | -179 | -189 | -200 | -217 | -237 | -262 |
41.5 | -103 | -106 | -114 | -122 | -131 | -140 | -151 | -162 | -171 | -180 | -196 | -213 | -234 | -258 |
42 | -103 | -111 | -119 | -127 | -136 | -146 | -157 | -165 | -175 | -189 | -206 | -226 | -249 | -263 |
42.5 | -108 | -116 | -124 | -132 | -142 | -152 | -160 | -169 | -183 | -199 | -218 | -240 | -254 | -268 |
43 | -108 | -115 | -123 | -131 | -141 | -149 | -157 | -169 | -183 | -201 | -220 | -232 | -245 | -262 |
43.5 | -107 | -115 | -123 | -131 | -138 | -145 | -157 | -169 | -185 | -202 | -213 | -224 | -239 | -256 |
44 | -107 | -115 | -122 | -128 | -135 | -146 | -157 | -172 | -187 | -197 | -207 | -221 | -235 | -262 |
44.5 | -107 | -114 | -120 | -126 | -136 | -146 | -159 | -174 | -183 | -192 | -204 | -217 | -241 | -268 |
45 | -107 | -112 | -118 | -127 | -136 | -148 | -161 | -169 | -178 | -189 | -200 | -222 | -246 | -260 |
45.5 | -105 | -110 | -119 | -127 | -138 | -150 | -157 | -165 | -175 | -185 | -205 | -227 | -239 | -252 |
46 | -105 | -113 | -121 | -131 | -142 | -149 | -156 | -165 | -175 | -193 | -214 | -225 | -237 | -250 |
46.5 | -108 | -116 | -125 | -135 | -141 | -148 | -157 | -166 | -183 | -202 | -212 | -223 | -235 | -247 |
47 | -108 | -117 | -126 | -131 | -138 | -146 | -154 | -169 | -186 | -196 | -206 | -216 | -227 | -239 |
47.5 | -108 | -117 | -123 | -128 | -135 | -143 | -157 | -172 | -181 | -190 | -199 | -209 | -219 | -231 |
48 | -108 | -113 | -118 | -124 | -132 | -144 | -158 | -166 | -174 | -182 | -191 | -200 | -210 | |
48.5 | -105 | -109 | -115 | -121 | -132 | -145 | -152 | -159 | -167 | -174 | -183 | -191 | | |
49 | -105 | -110 | -116 | -126 | -138 | -145 | -151 | -158 | -166 | -174 | -182 | | | |
49.5 | -106 | -111 | -121 | -132 | -138 | -144 | -151 | -158 | -165 | -173 | | | | |
50 | -106 | -115 | -125 | -131 | -137 | -143 | -150 | -156 | -163 | | | | | |
50.5 | -109 | -119 | -124 | -130 | -136 | -142 | -148 | -155 | | | | | | |
51 | -109 | -114 | -119 | -124 | -130 | -135 | -141 | | | | | | | |
51.5 | -105 | -109 | -114 | -118 | -124 | -129 | | | | | | | | |
52 | -105 | -109 | -114 | -118 | -123 | | | | | | | | | |
52.5 | -104 | -109 | -113 | -118 | | | | | | | | | | |
53 | -104 | -109 | -113 | | | | | | | | | | | |
53.5 | -104 | -109 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
54 | -104 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
The following table shows the probability of winning after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Probability of Winning after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Over.
Fair Line |
Points Purchased |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
33 | 0.522 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
33.5 | 0.522 | 0.543 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
34 | 0.518 | 0.54 | 0.56 | | | | | | | | | | | |
34.5 | 0.518 | 0.536 | 0.557 | 0.577 | | | | | | | | | | |
35 | 0.51 | 0.528 | 0.545 | 0.565 | 0.587 | | | | | | | | | |
35.5 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.537 | 0.554 | 0.576 | 0.598 | | | | | | | | |
36 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.547 | 0.565 | 0.587 | 0.609 | | | | | | | |
36.5 | 0.51 | 0.521 | 0.53 | 0.539 | 0.558 | 0.576 | 0.598 | 0.62 | | | | | | |
37 | 0.526 | 0.537 | 0.546 | 0.556 | 0.566 | 0.584 | 0.602 | 0.624 | 0.646 | | | | | |
37.5 | 0.526 | 0.552 | 0.562 | 0.572 | 0.582 | 0.592 | 0.61 | 0.628 | 0.65 | 0.672 | | | | |
38 | 0.513 | 0.539 | 0.564 | 0.574 | 0.584 | 0.594 | 0.604 | 0.622 | 0.64 | 0.662 | 0.684 | | | |
38.5 | 0.513 | 0.526 | 0.551 | 0.576 | 0.586 | 0.597 | 0.607 | 0.617 | 0.635 | 0.653 | 0.675 | 0.697 | | |
39 | 0.508 | 0.521 | 0.534 | 0.558 | 0.584 | 0.595 | 0.605 | 0.615 | 0.625 | 0.643 | 0.662 | 0.683 | 0.705 | |
39.5 | 0.508 | 0.516 | 0.528 | 0.541 | 0.567 | 0.594 | 0.604 | 0.614 | 0.624 | 0.634 | 0.652 | 0.671 | 0.692 | 0.714 |
40 | 0.518 | 0.526 | 0.533 | 0.546 | 0.559 | 0.585 | 0.612 | 0.622 | 0.632 | 0.642 | 0.652 | 0.671 | 0.689 | 0.711 |
40.5 | 0.518 | 0.535 | 0.543 | 0.55 | 0.564 | 0.577 | 0.603 | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.688 | 0.707 |
41 | 0.522 | 0.54 | 0.557 | 0.564 | 0.572 | 0.585 | 0.599 | 0.625 | 0.651 | 0.662 | 0.672 | 0.682 | 0.692 | 0.71 |
41.5 | 0.522 | 0.544 | 0.561 | 0.578 | 0.586 | 0.594 | 0.607 | 0.62 | 0.647 | 0.673 | 0.683 | 0.694 | 0.704 | 0.714 |
42 | 0.507 | 0.529 | 0.551 | 0.567 | 0.585 | 0.593 | 0.601 | 0.614 | 0.627 | 0.654 | 0.68 | 0.691 | 0.701 | 0.711 |
42.5 | 0.507 | 0.514 | 0.536 | 0.557 | 0.574 | 0.592 | 0.6 | 0.608 | 0.621 | 0.635 | 0.661 | 0.687 | 0.698 | 0.708 |
43 | 0.518 | 0.526 | 0.533 | 0.553 | 0.576 | 0.594 | 0.611 | 0.619 | 0.627 | 0.641 | 0.654 | 0.68 | 0.707 | 0.717 |
43.5 | 0.518 | 0.537 | 0.543 | 0.55 | 0.573 | 0.595 | 0.613 | 0.631 | 0.639 | 0.647 | 0.66 | 0.673 | 0.7 | 0.726 |
44 | 0.517 | 0.535 | 0.553 | 0.56 | 0.567 | 0.59 | 0.612 | 0.63 | 0.648 | 0.656 | 0.664 | 0.677 | 0.69 | 0.716 |
44.5 | 0.517 | 0.535 | 0.552 | 0.569 | 0.577 | 0.584 | 0.606 | 0.629 | 0.646 | 0.664 | 0.672 | 0.68 | 0.694 | 0.707 |
45 | 0.517 | 0.534 | 0.551 | 0.568 | 0.586 | 0.594 | 0.601 | 0.623 | 0.646 | 0.664 | 0.681 | 0.689 | 0.697 | 0.711 |
45.5 | 0.517 | 0.534 | 0.55 | 0.567 | 0.585 | 0.603 | 0.611 | 0.618 | 0.64 | 0.663 | 0.681 | 0.698 | 0.706 | 0.715 |
46 | 0.513 | 0.529 | 0.545 | 0.562 | 0.579 | 0.598 | 0.616 | 0.623 | 0.631 | 0.653 | 0.675 | 0.693 | 0.711 | 0.719 |
46.5 | 0.513 | 0.525 | 0.541 | 0.557 | 0.574 | 0.592 | 0.61 | 0.629 | 0.636 | 0.643 | 0.666 | 0.688 | 0.706 | 0.724 |
47 | 0.518 | 0.531 | 0.543 | 0.559 | 0.576 | 0.593 | 0.611 | 0.629 | 0.647 | 0.655 | 0.662 | 0.684 | 0.707 | 0.725 |
47.5 | 0.518 | 0.536 | 0.548 | 0.56 | 0.577 | 0.594 | 0.612 | 0.629 | 0.648 | 0.666 | 0.673 | 0.681 | 0.703 | 0.725 |
48 | 0.52 | 0.538 | 0.556 | 0.568 | 0.58 | 0.597 | 0.614 | 0.632 | 0.649 | 0.668 | 0.686 | 0.693 | 0.701 | 0.723 |
48.5 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.558 | 0.575 | 0.587 | 0.6 | 0.617 | 0.634 | 0.652 | 0.669 | 0.688 | 0.706 | 0.713 | 0.721 |
49 | 0.511 | 0.531 | 0.55 | 0.568 | 0.586 | 0.599 | 0.611 | 0.628 | 0.645 | 0.663 | 0.68 | 0.699 | 0.717 | 0.724 |
49.5 | 0.511 | 0.522 | 0.541 | 0.56 | 0.579 | 0.597 | 0.61 | 0.622 | 0.639 | 0.656 | 0.674 | 0.691 | 0.71 | 0.728 |
50 | 0.514 | 0.524 | 0.535 | 0.554 | 0.574 | 0.593 | 0.611 | 0.624 | 0.636 | 0.653 | 0.67 | 0.688 | 0.705 | 0.724 |
50.5 | 0.514 | 0.527 | 0.538 | 0.548 | 0.568 | 0.589 | 0.607 | 0.625 | 0.638 | 0.651 | 0.668 | 0.685 | 0.702 | 0.72 |
51 | 0.522 | 0.535 | 0.548 | 0.559 | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.611 | 0.629 | 0.647 | 0.66 | 0.673 | 0.69 | 0.707 | 0.724 |
51.5 | 0.522 | 0.544 | 0.557 | 0.569 | 0.58 | 0.592 | 0.612 | 0.632 | 0.651 | 0.669 | 0.682 | 0.694 | 0.711 | 0.728 |
52 | 0.511 | 0.533 | 0.554 | 0.566 | 0.58 | 0.591 | 0.602 | 0.623 | 0.643 | 0.661 | 0.68 | 0.692 | 0.705 | 0.722 |
52.5 | 0.511 | 0.522 | 0.543 | 0.564 | 0.577 | 0.591 | 0.602 | 0.613 | 0.633 | 0.654 | 0.672 | 0.691 | 0.703 | 0.716 |
53 | 0.511 | 0.522 | 0.532 | 0.553 | 0.575 | 0.588 | 0.602 | 0.613 | 0.624 | 0.645 | 0.665 | 0.683 | 0.702 | 0.714 |
53.5 | 0.511 | 0.521 | 0.532 | 0.542 | 0.564 | 0.586 | 0.6 | 0.614 | 0.625 | 0.636 | 0.656 | 0.676 | 0.695 | 0.713 |
54 | 0.511 | 0.521 | 0.531 | 0.542 | 0.553 | 0.575 | 0.597 | 0.611 | 0.624 | 0.635 | 0.646 | 0.667 | 0.687 | 0.706 |
The following table shows the fair line after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Fair Line after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
Fair Line |
Points Purchased |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
33 | -109 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
33.5 | -109 | -119 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
34 | -108 | -117 | -128 | | | | | | | | | | | |
34.5 | -108 | -115 | -126 | -136 | | | | | | | | | | |
35 | -104 | -112 | -120 | -130 | -142 | | | | | | | | | |
35.5 | -104 | -108 | -116 | -124 | -136 | -149 | | | | | | | | |
36 | -104 | -108 | -113 | -121 | -130 | -142 | -155 | | | | | | | |
36.5 | -104 | -109 | -113 | -117 | -126 | -136 | -148 | -163 | | | | | | |
37 | -111 | -116 | -120 | -125 | -130 | -140 | -151 | -166 | -182 | | | | | |
37.5 | -111 | -123 | -128 | -133 | -139 | -145 | -156 | -169 | -186 | -205 | | | | |
38 | -105 | -117 | -129 | -135 | -141 | -146 | -153 | -165 | -178 | -196 | -217 | | | |
38.5 | -105 | -111 | -123 | -136 | -142 | -148 | -154 | -161 | -174 | -188 | -208 | -230 | | |
39 | -103 | -109 | -114 | -126 | -141 | -147 | -153 | -160 | -167 | -180 | -195 | -216 | -239 | |
39.5 | -103 | -107 | -112 | -118 | -131 | -146 | -152 | -159 | -166 | -174 | -188 | -204 | -225 | -250 |
40 | -107 | -111 | -114 | -120 | -127 | -141 | -157 | -165 | -172 | -180 | -188 | -204 | -221 | -245 |
40.5 | -107 | -115 | -119 | -122 | -129 | -136 | -152 | -170 | -178 | -186 | -194 | -203 | -221 | -241 |
41 | -109 | -117 | -126 | -129 | -134 | -141 | -149 | -167 | -187 | -196 | -205 | -215 | -225 | -245 |
41.5 | -109 | -119 | -128 | -137 | -141 | -146 | -155 | -163 | -183 | -206 | -216 | -227 | -238 | -250 |
42 | -103 | -112 | -122 | -131 | -141 | -146 | -151 | -159 | -168 | -189 | -213 | -223 | -234 | -246 |
42.5 | -103 | -106 | -115 | -126 | -135 | -145 | -150 | -155 | -164 | -174 | -195 | -220 | -231 | -243 |
43 | -108 | -111 | -114 | -124 | -136 | -146 | -157 | -163 | -168 | -178 | -189 | -213 | -241 | -253 |
43.5 | -108 | -116 | -119 | -122 | -134 | -147 | -158 | -171 | -177 | -183 | -194 | -206 | -233 | -265 |
44 | -107 | -115 | -124 | -127 | -131 | -144 | -158 | -170 | -184 | -190 | -197 | -209 | -223 | -253 |
44.5 | -107 | -115 | -123 | -132 | -136 | -140 | -154 | -169 | -183 | -198 | -205 | -213 | -226 | -241 |
45 | -107 | -115 | -123 | -131 | -142 | -146 | -151 | -166 | -182 | -197 | -214 | -222 | -230 | -246 |
45.5 | -107 | -114 | -122 | -131 | -141 | -152 | -157 | -162 | -178 | -197 | -213 | -232 | -241 | -250 |
46 | -105 | -112 | -120 | -128 | -138 | -149 | -160 | -166 | -171 | -188 | -208 | -226 | -246 | -256 |
46.5 | -105 | -110 | -118 | -126 | -135 | -145 | -157 | -169 | -175 | -180 | -199 | -221 | -240 | -262 |
47 | -108 | -113 | -119 | -127 | -136 | -146 | -157 | -170 | -184 | -190 | -196 | -217 | -241 | -263 |
47.5 | -108 | -116 | -121 | -127 | -137 | -146 | -158 | -170 | -184 | -199 | -206 | -213 | -237 | -264 |
48 | -108 | -117 | -125 | -131 | -138 | -148 | -159 | -172 | -185 | -201 | -219 | -226 | -234 | -261 |
48.5 | -108 | -117 | -126 | -135 | -142 | -150 | -161 | -173 | -187 | -202 | -220 | -240 | -249 | -258 |
49 | -105 | -113 | -122 | -131 | -142 | -149 | -157 | -169 | -182 | -196 | -213 | -232 | -253 | -263 |
49.5 | -105 | -109 | -118 | -127 | -137 | -148 | -156 | -165 | -177 | -191 | -207 | -224 | -245 | -268 |
50 | -106 | -110 | -115 | -124 | -135 | -146 | -157 | -166 | -175 | -189 | -203 | -220 | -239 | -262 |
50.5 | -106 | -111 | -116 | -121 | -132 | -143 | -154 | -167 | -176 | -186 | -201 | -217 | -236 | -257 |
51 | -109 | -115 | -121 | -127 | -132 | -144 | -157 | -169 | -184 | -194 | -205 | -222 | -241 | -262 |
51.5 | -109 | -119 | -126 | -132 | -138 | -145 | -158 | -172 | -186 | -202 | -214 | -227 | -246 | -268 |
52 | -105 | -114 | -124 | -131 | -138 | -145 | -151 | -165 | -180 | -195 | -212 | -225 | -239 | -260 |
52.5 | -105 | -109 | -119 | -129 | -137 | -144 | -151 | -158 | -173 | -189 | -205 | -223 | -237 | -252 |
53 | -104 | -109 | -114 | -124 | -135 | -143 | -151 | -159 | -166 | -181 | -199 | -216 | -235 | -250 |
53.5 | -104 | -109 | -114 | -118 | -129 | -142 | -150 | -159 | -166 | -175 | -191 | -209 | -228 | -249 |
54 | -104 | -109 | -113 | -118 | -124 | -135 | -148 | -157 | -166 | -174 | -183 | -200 | -220 | -240 |
The following table shows the probability of winning after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Probability of Winning after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
Fair Line |
Points Sold |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
33 | 0.478 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
33.5 | 0.478 | 0.457 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
34 | 0.482 | 0.46 | 0.44 | | | | | | | | | | | |
34.5 | 0.482 | 0.464 | 0.443 | 0.423 | | | | | | | | | | |
35 | 0.49 | 0.472 | 0.455 | 0.435 | 0.413 | | | | | | | | | |
35.5 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.463 | 0.446 | 0.424 | 0.402 | | | | | | | | |
36 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.453 | 0.435 | 0.413 | 0.391 | | | | | | | |
36.5 | 0.49 | 0.479 | 0.47 | 0.461 | 0.442 | 0.424 | 0.402 | 0.38 | | | | | | |
37 | 0.474 | 0.463 | 0.454 | 0.444 | 0.434 | 0.416 | 0.398 | 0.376 | 0.354 | | | | | |
37.5 | 0.474 | 0.448 | 0.438 | 0.428 | 0.418 | 0.408 | 0.39 | 0.372 | 0.35 | 0.328 | | | | |
38 | 0.487 | 0.461 | 0.436 | 0.426 | 0.416 | 0.406 | 0.396 | 0.378 | 0.36 | 0.338 | 0.316 | | | |
38.5 | 0.487 | 0.474 | 0.449 | 0.424 | 0.414 | 0.403 | 0.393 | 0.383 | 0.365 | 0.347 | 0.325 | 0.303 | | |
39 | 0.492 | 0.479 | 0.466 | 0.442 | 0.416 | 0.405 | 0.395 | 0.385 | 0.375 | 0.357 | 0.338 | 0.317 | 0.295 | |
39.5 | 0.492 | 0.484 | 0.472 | 0.459 | 0.433 | 0.406 | 0.396 | 0.386 | 0.376 | 0.366 | 0.348 | 0.329 | 0.308 | 0.286 |
40 | 0.482 | 0.474 | 0.467 | 0.454 | 0.441 | 0.415 | 0.388 | 0.378 | 0.368 | 0.358 | 0.348 | 0.329 | 0.311 | 0.289 |
40.5 | 0.482 | 0.465 | 0.457 | 0.45 | 0.436 | 0.423 | 0.397 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.312 | 0.293 |
41 | 0.478 | 0.46 | 0.443 | 0.436 | 0.428 | 0.415 | 0.401 | 0.375 | 0.349 | 0.338 | 0.328 | 0.318 | 0.308 | 0.29 |
41.5 | 0.478 | 0.456 | 0.439 | 0.422 | 0.414 | 0.406 | 0.393 | 0.38 | 0.353 | 0.327 | 0.317 | 0.306 | 0.296 | 0.286 |
42 | 0.493 | 0.471 | 0.449 | 0.433 | 0.415 | 0.407 | 0.399 | 0.386 | 0.373 | 0.346 | 0.32 | 0.309 | 0.299 | 0.289 |
42.5 | 0.493 | 0.486 | 0.464 | 0.443 | 0.426 | 0.408 | 0.4 | 0.392 | 0.379 | 0.365 | 0.339 | 0.313 | 0.302 | 0.292 |
43 | 0.482 | 0.474 | 0.467 | 0.447 | 0.424 | 0.406 | 0.389 | 0.381 | 0.373 | 0.359 | 0.346 | 0.32 | 0.293 | 0.283 |
43.5 | 0.482 | 0.463 | 0.457 | 0.45 | 0.427 | 0.405 | 0.387 | 0.369 | 0.361 | 0.353 | 0.34 | 0.327 | 0.3 | 0.274 |
44 | 0.483 | 0.465 | 0.447 | 0.44 | 0.433 | 0.41 | 0.388 | 0.37 | 0.352 | 0.344 | 0.336 | 0.323 | 0.31 | 0.284 |
44.5 | 0.483 | 0.465 | 0.448 | 0.431 | 0.423 | 0.416 | 0.394 | 0.371 | 0.354 | 0.336 | 0.328 | 0.32 | 0.306 | 0.293 |
45 | 0.483 | 0.466 | 0.449 | 0.432 | 0.414 | 0.406 | 0.399 | 0.377 | 0.354 | 0.336 | 0.319 | 0.311 | 0.303 | 0.289 |
45.5 | 0.483 | 0.466 | 0.45 | 0.433 | 0.415 | 0.397 | 0.389 | 0.382 | 0.36 | 0.337 | 0.319 | 0.302 | 0.294 | 0.285 |
46 | 0.487 | 0.471 | 0.455 | 0.438 | 0.421 | 0.402 | 0.384 | 0.377 | 0.369 | 0.347 | 0.325 | 0.307 | 0.289 | 0.281 |
46.5 | 0.487 | 0.475 | 0.459 | 0.443 | 0.426 | 0.408 | 0.39 | 0.371 | 0.364 | 0.357 | 0.334 | 0.312 | 0.294 | 0.276 |
47 | 0.482 | 0.469 | 0.457 | 0.441 | 0.424 | 0.407 | 0.389 | 0.371 | 0.353 | 0.345 | 0.338 | 0.316 | 0.293 | 0.275 |
47.5 | 0.482 | 0.464 | 0.452 | 0.44 | 0.423 | 0.406 | 0.388 | 0.371 | 0.352 | 0.334 | 0.327 | 0.319 | 0.297 | 0.275 |
48 | 0.48 | 0.462 | 0.444 | 0.432 | 0.42 | 0.403 | 0.386 | 0.368 | 0.351 | 0.332 | 0.314 | 0.307 | 0.299 | 0.277 |
48.5 | 0.48 | 0.46 | 0.442 | 0.425 | 0.413 | 0.4 | 0.383 | 0.366 | 0.348 | 0.331 | 0.312 | 0.294 | 0.287 | 0.279 |
49 | 0.489 | 0.469 | 0.45 | 0.432 | 0.414 | 0.401 | 0.389 | 0.372 | 0.355 | 0.337 | 0.32 | 0.301 | 0.283 | 0.276 |
49.5 | 0.489 | 0.478 | 0.459 | 0.44 | 0.421 | 0.403 | 0.39 | 0.378 | 0.361 | 0.344 | 0.326 | 0.309 | 0.29 | 0.272 |
50 | 0.486 | 0.476 | 0.465 | 0.446 | 0.426 | 0.407 | 0.389 | 0.376 | 0.364 | 0.347 | 0.33 | 0.312 | 0.295 | 0.276 |
50.5 | 0.486 | 0.473 | 0.462 | 0.452 | 0.432 | 0.411 | 0.393 | 0.375 | 0.362 | 0.349 | 0.332 | 0.315 | 0.298 | 0.28 |
51 | 0.478 | 0.465 | 0.452 | 0.441 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.389 | 0.371 | 0.353 | 0.34 | 0.327 | 0.31 | 0.293 | 0.276 |
51.5 | 0.478 | 0.456 | 0.443 | 0.431 | 0.42 | 0.408 | 0.388 | 0.368 | 0.349 | 0.331 | 0.318 | 0.306 | 0.289 | 0.272 |
52 | 0.489 | 0.467 | 0.446 | 0.434 | 0.42 | 0.409 | 0.398 | 0.377 | 0.357 | 0.339 | 0.32 | 0.308 | 0.295 | 0.278 |
52.5 | 0.489 | 0.478 | 0.457 | 0.436 | 0.423 | 0.409 | 0.398 | 0.387 | 0.367 | 0.346 | 0.328 | 0.309 | 0.297 | 0.284 |
53 | 0.489 | 0.478 | 0.468 | 0.447 | 0.425 | 0.412 | 0.398 | 0.387 | 0.376 | 0.355 | 0.335 | 0.317 | 0.298 | 0.286 |
53.5 | 0.489 | 0.479 | 0.468 | 0.458 | 0.436 | 0.414 | 0.4 | 0.386 | 0.375 | 0.364 | 0.344 | 0.324 | 0.305 | 0.287 |
54 | 0.489 | 0.479 | 0.469 | 0.458 | 0.447 | 0.425 | 0.403 | 0.389 | 0.376 | 0.365 | 0.354 | 0.333 | 0.313 | 0.294 |
The following table shows the fair line after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Fair Line after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
Fair Line |
Points Sold |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
33 | 109 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
33.5 | 109 | 119 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
34 | 108 | 117 | 128 | | | | | | | | | | | |
34.5 | 108 | 115 | 126 | 136 | | | | | | | | | | |
35 | 104 | 112 | 120 | 130 | 142 | | | | | | | | | |
35.5 | 104 | 108 | 116 | 124 | 136 | 149 | | | | | | | | |
36 | 104 | 108 | 113 | 121 | 130 | 142 | 155 | | | | | | | |
36.5 | 104 | 109 | 113 | 117 | 126 | 136 | 148 | 163 | | | | | | |
37 | 111 | 116 | 120 | 125 | 130 | 140 | 151 | 166 | 182 | | | | | |
37.5 | 111 | 123 | 128 | 133 | 139 | 145 | 156 | 169 | 186 | 205 | | | | |
38 | 105 | 117 | 129 | 135 | 141 | 146 | 153 | 165 | 178 | 196 | 217 | | | |
38.5 | 105 | 111 | 123 | 136 | 142 | 148 | 154 | 161 | 174 | 188 | 208 | 230 | | |
39 | 103 | 109 | 114 | 126 | 141 | 147 | 153 | 160 | 167 | 180 | 195 | 216 | 239 | |
39.5 | 103 | 107 | 112 | 118 | 131 | 146 | 152 | 159 | 166 | 174 | 188 | 204 | 225 | 250 |
40 | 107 | 111 | 114 | 120 | 127 | 141 | 157 | 165 | 172 | 180 | 188 | 204 | 221 | 245 |
40.5 | 107 | 115 | 119 | 122 | 129 | 136 | 152 | 170 | 178 | 186 | 194 | 203 | 221 | 241 |
41 | 109 | 117 | 126 | 129 | 134 | 141 | 149 | 167 | 187 | 196 | 205 | 215 | 225 | 245 |
41.5 | 109 | 119 | 128 | 137 | 141 | 146 | 155 | 163 | 183 | 206 | 216 | 227 | 238 | 250 |
42 | 103 | 112 | 122 | 131 | 141 | 146 | 151 | 159 | 168 | 189 | 213 | 223 | 234 | 246 |
42.5 | 103 | 106 | 115 | 126 | 135 | 145 | 150 | 155 | 164 | 174 | 195 | 220 | 231 | 243 |
43 | 108 | 111 | 114 | 124 | 136 | 146 | 157 | 163 | 168 | 178 | 189 | 213 | 241 | 253 |
43.5 | 108 | 116 | 119 | 122 | 134 | 147 | 158 | 171 | 177 | 183 | 194 | 206 | 233 | 265 |
44 | 107 | 115 | 124 | 127 | 131 | 144 | 158 | 170 | 184 | 190 | 197 | 209 | 223 | 253 |
44.5 | 107 | 115 | 123 | 132 | 136 | 140 | 154 | 169 | 183 | 198 | 205 | 213 | 226 | 241 |
45 | 107 | 115 | 123 | 131 | 142 | 146 | 151 | 166 | 182 | 197 | 214 | 222 | 230 | 246 |
45.5 | 107 | 114 | 122 | 131 | 141 | 152 | 157 | 162 | 178 | 197 | 213 | 232 | 241 | 250 |
46 | 105 | 112 | 120 | 128 | 138 | 149 | 160 | 166 | 171 | 188 | 208 | 226 | 246 | 256 |
46.5 | 105 | 110 | 118 | 126 | 135 | 145 | 157 | 169 | 175 | 180 | 199 | 221 | 240 | 262 |
47 | 108 | 113 | 119 | 127 | 136 | 146 | 157 | 170 | 184 | 190 | 196 | 217 | 241 | 263 |
47.5 | 108 | 116 | 121 | 127 | 137 | 146 | 158 | 170 | 184 | 199 | 206 | 213 | 237 | 264 |
48 | 108 | 117 | 125 | 131 | 138 | 148 | 159 | 172 | 185 | 201 | 219 | 226 | 234 | 261 |
48.5 | 108 | 117 | 126 | 135 | 142 | 150 | 161 | 173 | 187 | 202 | 220 | 240 | 249 | 258 |
49 | 105 | 113 | 122 | 131 | 142 | 149 | 157 | 169 | 182 | 196 | 213 | 232 | 253 | 263 |
49.5 | 105 | 109 | 118 | 127 | 137 | 148 | 156 | 165 | 177 | 191 | 207 | 224 | 245 | 268 |
50 | 106 | 110 | 115 | 124 | 135 | 146 | 157 | 166 | 175 | 189 | 203 | 220 | 239 | 262 |
50.5 | 106 | 111 | 116 | 121 | 132 | 143 | 154 | 167 | 176 | 186 | 201 | 217 | 236 | 257 |
51 | 109 | 115 | 121 | 127 | 132 | 144 | 157 | 169 | 184 | 194 | 205 | 222 | 241 | 262 |
51.5 | 109 | 119 | 126 | 132 | 138 | 145 | 158 | 172 | 186 | 202 | 214 | 227 | 246 | 268 |
52 | 105 | 114 | 124 | 131 | 138 | 145 | 151 | 165 | 180 | 195 | 212 | 225 | 239 | 260 |
52.5 | 105 | 109 | 119 | 129 | 137 | 144 | 151 | 158 | 173 | 189 | 205 | 223 | 237 | 252 |
53 | 104 | 109 | 114 | 124 | 135 | 143 | 151 | 159 | 166 | 181 | 199 | 216 | 235 | 250 |
53.5 | 104 | 109 | 114 | 118 | 129 | 142 | 150 | 159 | 166 | 175 | 191 | 209 | 228 | 249 |
54 | 104 | 109 | 113 | 118 | 124 | 135 | 148 | 157 | 166 | 174 | 183 | 200 | 220 | 240 |
The following table shows the probability of winning after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Probability of Winning after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Over.
Fair Line |
Points Sold |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
33 | 0.478 | 0.46 | 0.443 | 0.434 | 0.424 | 0.413 | 0.403 | 0.377 | 0.35 | 0.337 | 0.324 | 0.316 | 0.308 | 0.29 |
33.5 | 0.482 | 0.464 | 0.455 | 0.445 | 0.435 | 0.425 | 0.398 | 0.372 | 0.359 | 0.345 | 0.337 | 0.329 | 0.312 | 0.294 |
34 | 0.482 | 0.472 | 0.463 | 0.453 | 0.442 | 0.416 | 0.39 | 0.377 | 0.363 | 0.355 | 0.347 | 0.329 | 0.312 | 0.289 |
34.5 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.461 | 0.434 | 0.408 | 0.395 | 0.381 | 0.373 | 0.365 | 0.348 | 0.33 | 0.307 | 0.285 |
35 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.445 | 0.419 | 0.406 | 0.393 | 0.384 | 0.376 | 0.359 | 0.341 | 0.318 | 0.296 | 0.289 |
35.5 | 0.49 | 0.479 | 0.454 | 0.43 | 0.417 | 0.403 | 0.395 | 0.387 | 0.369 | 0.352 | 0.329 | 0.307 | 0.3 | 0.292 |
36 | 0.49 | 0.464 | 0.439 | 0.426 | 0.413 | 0.405 | 0.397 | 0.379 | 0.361 | 0.339 | 0.317 | 0.309 | 0.302 | 0.284 |
36.5 | 0.474 | 0.448 | 0.435 | 0.423 | 0.415 | 0.407 | 0.389 | 0.371 | 0.349 | 0.327 | 0.319 | 0.312 | 0.293 | 0.275 |
37 | 0.474 | 0.461 | 0.448 | 0.441 | 0.433 | 0.415 | 0.397 | 0.375 | 0.352 | 0.345 | 0.338 | 0.319 | 0.301 | 0.283 |
37.5 | 0.487 | 0.474 | 0.466 | 0.459 | 0.441 | 0.423 | 0.401 | 0.378 | 0.371 | 0.364 | 0.345 | 0.327 | 0.309 | 0.292 |
38 | 0.487 | 0.479 | 0.471 | 0.455 | 0.437 | 0.415 | 0.392 | 0.385 | 0.378 | 0.359 | 0.341 | 0.323 | 0.306 | 0.289 |
38.5 | 0.492 | 0.484 | 0.467 | 0.451 | 0.428 | 0.406 | 0.399 | 0.391 | 0.373 | 0.354 | 0.337 | 0.319 | 0.302 | 0.285 |
39 | 0.492 | 0.475 | 0.458 | 0.437 | 0.414 | 0.407 | 0.4 | 0.381 | 0.363 | 0.345 | 0.328 | 0.311 | 0.294 | 0.281 |
39.5 | 0.482 | 0.465 | 0.443 | 0.423 | 0.415 | 0.408 | 0.39 | 0.371 | 0.354 | 0.336 | 0.319 | 0.302 | 0.29 | 0.277 |
40 | 0.482 | 0.46 | 0.439 | 0.432 | 0.425 | 0.406 | 0.388 | 0.371 | 0.353 | 0.336 | 0.319 | 0.306 | 0.294 | 0.275 |
40.5 | 0.478 | 0.456 | 0.449 | 0.442 | 0.424 | 0.405 | 0.388 | 0.37 | 0.353 | 0.336 | 0.323 | 0.311 | 0.292 | 0.274 |
41 | 0.478 | 0.47 | 0.464 | 0.446 | 0.428 | 0.41 | 0.393 | 0.376 | 0.359 | 0.346 | 0.334 | 0.315 | 0.297 | 0.277 |
41.5 | 0.493 | 0.486 | 0.468 | 0.451 | 0.433 | 0.416 | 0.399 | 0.382 | 0.369 | 0.357 | 0.338 | 0.32 | 0.299 | 0.279 |
42 | 0.493 | 0.475 | 0.457 | 0.441 | 0.423 | 0.406 | 0.389 | 0.377 | 0.364 | 0.346 | 0.327 | 0.307 | 0.287 | 0.275 |
42.5 | 0.482 | 0.463 | 0.447 | 0.431 | 0.414 | 0.397 | 0.384 | 0.371 | 0.353 | 0.334 | 0.314 | 0.294 | 0.283 | 0.272 |
43 | 0.482 | 0.464 | 0.448 | 0.432 | 0.415 | 0.402 | 0.39 | 0.371 | 0.353 | 0.333 | 0.312 | 0.301 | 0.29 | 0.276 |
43.5 | 0.483 | 0.465 | 0.449 | 0.433 | 0.421 | 0.408 | 0.39 | 0.371 | 0.351 | 0.331 | 0.32 | 0.308 | 0.295 | 0.281 |
44 | 0.483 | 0.466 | 0.45 | 0.438 | 0.425 | 0.407 | 0.388 | 0.368 | 0.348 | 0.337 | 0.326 | 0.312 | 0.298 | 0.276 |
44.5 | 0.483 | 0.466 | 0.454 | 0.443 | 0.424 | 0.406 | 0.385 | 0.365 | 0.354 | 0.343 | 0.329 | 0.316 | 0.294 | 0.271 |
45 | 0.483 | 0.471 | 0.459 | 0.442 | 0.423 | 0.403 | 0.382 | 0.371 | 0.36 | 0.347 | 0.333 | 0.311 | 0.289 | 0.278 |
45.5 | 0.487 | 0.475 | 0.458 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.4 | 0.389 | 0.377 | 0.364 | 0.35 | 0.328 | 0.306 | 0.295 | 0.284 |
46 | 0.487 | 0.469 | 0.452 | 0.433 | 0.413 | 0.401 | 0.39 | 0.377 | 0.363 | 0.341 | 0.319 | 0.308 | 0.297 | 0.286 |
46.5 | 0.482 | 0.464 | 0.444 | 0.425 | 0.414 | 0.403 | 0.389 | 0.376 | 0.354 | 0.332 | 0.32 | 0.309 | 0.299 | 0.288 |
47 | 0.482 | 0.462 | 0.442 | 0.432 | 0.421 | 0.407 | 0.394 | 0.372 | 0.349 | 0.338 | 0.327 | 0.316 | 0.306 | 0.295 |
47.5 | 0.48 | 0.46 | 0.449 | 0.439 | 0.425 | 0.412 | 0.39 | 0.367 | 0.356 | 0.345 | 0.334 | 0.324 | 0.313 | 0.302 |
48 | 0.48 | 0.469 | 0.458 | 0.446 | 0.432 | 0.41 | 0.388 | 0.377 | 0.365 | 0.355 | 0.344 | 0.333 | 0.323 | |
48.5 | 0.489 | 0.478 | 0.465 | 0.452 | 0.43 | 0.408 | 0.397 | 0.386 | 0.375 | 0.364 | 0.354 | 0.343 | | |
49 | 0.489 | 0.476 | 0.463 | 0.442 | 0.42 | 0.409 | 0.398 | 0.387 | 0.376 | 0.366 | 0.355 | | | |
49.5 | 0.486 | 0.473 | 0.452 | 0.431 | 0.42 | 0.409 | 0.398 | 0.388 | 0.377 | 0.367 | | | | |
50 | 0.486 | 0.465 | 0.444 | 0.433 | 0.422 | 0.412 | 0.401 | 0.39 | 0.38 | | | | | |
50.5 | 0.478 | 0.456 | 0.446 | 0.435 | 0.425 | 0.414 | 0.403 | 0.393 | | | | | | |
51 | 0.478 | 0.467 | 0.456 | 0.446 | 0.436 | 0.425 | 0.414 | | | | | | | |
51.5 | 0.489 | 0.478 | 0.468 | 0.458 | 0.447 | 0.437 | | | | | | | | |
52 | 0.489 | 0.478 | 0.468 | 0.458 | 0.448 | | | | | | | | | |
52.5 | 0.489 | 0.479 | 0.469 | 0.459 | | | | | | | | | | |
53 | 0.489 | 0.479 | 0.469 | | | | | | | | | | | |
53.5 | 0.489 | 0.479 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
54 | 0.489 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
The following table shows the fair line after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Fair Line after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
Fair Line |
Points Sold |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
33 | 109 | 117 | 126 | 131 | 136 | 142 | 148 | 166 | 185 | 197 | 209 | 217 | 225 | 245 |
33.5 | 108 | 115 | 120 | 125 | 130 | 136 | 151 | 169 | 179 | 190 | 196 | 204 | 221 | 240 |
34 | 108 | 112 | 116 | 121 | 126 | 140 | 157 | 166 | 175 | 181 | 188 | 204 | 221 | 246 |
34.5 | 104 | 108 | 113 | 117 | 130 | 145 | 153 | 162 | 168 | 174 | 188 | 203 | 225 | 251 |
35 | 104 | 108 | 113 | 125 | 139 | 146 | 155 | 160 | 166 | 179 | 193 | 214 | 238 | 246 |
35.5 | 104 | 109 | 120 | 133 | 140 | 148 | 153 | 158 | 171 | 184 | 204 | 226 | 234 | 242 |
36 | 104 | 116 | 128 | 135 | 142 | 147 | 152 | 164 | 177 | 195 | 216 | 223 | 231 | 253 |
36.5 | 111 | 123 | 130 | 136 | 141 | 146 | 157 | 169 | 187 | 206 | 213 | 221 | 241 | 264 |
37 | 111 | 117 | 123 | 127 | 131 | 141 | 152 | 167 | 184 | 190 | 196 | 213 | 233 | 253 |
37.5 | 105 | 111 | 115 | 118 | 127 | 136 | 150 | 164 | 170 | 175 | 190 | 206 | 223 | 243 |
38 | 105 | 109 | 112 | 120 | 129 | 141 | 155 | 160 | 165 | 178 | 194 | 209 | 227 | 246 |
38.5 | 103 | 107 | 114 | 122 | 134 | 146 | 151 | 156 | 168 | 182 | 197 | 213 | 231 | 250 |
39 | 103 | 111 | 119 | 129 | 141 | 146 | 150 | 162 | 176 | 190 | 205 | 222 | 240 | 256 |
39.5 | 107 | 115 | 125 | 137 | 141 | 145 | 157 | 169 | 183 | 197 | 213 | 231 | 245 | 261 |
40 | 107 | 117 | 128 | 131 | 135 | 146 | 158 | 170 | 183 | 198 | 214 | 226 | 240 | 263 |
40.5 | 109 | 119 | 123 | 126 | 136 | 147 | 158 | 170 | 183 | 198 | 209 | 222 | 242 | 265 |
41 | 109 | 113 | 116 | 124 | 134 | 144 | 154 | 166 | 179 | 189 | 200 | 217 | 237 | 262 |
41.5 | 103 | 106 | 114 | 122 | 131 | 140 | 151 | 162 | 171 | 180 | 196 | 213 | 234 | 258 |
42 | 103 | 111 | 119 | 127 | 136 | 146 | 157 | 165 | 175 | 189 | 206 | 226 | 249 | 263 |
42.5 | 108 | 116 | 124 | 132 | 142 | 152 | 160 | 169 | 183 | 199 | 218 | 240 | 254 | 268 |
43 | 108 | 115 | 123 | 131 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 169 | 183 | 201 | 220 | 232 | 245 | 262 |
43.5 | 107 | 115 | 123 | 131 | 138 | 145 | 157 | 169 | 185 | 202 | 213 | 224 | 239 | 256 |
44 | 107 | 115 | 122 | 128 | 135 | 146 | 157 | 172 | 187 | 197 | 207 | 221 | 235 | 262 |
44.5 | 107 | 114 | 120 | 126 | 136 | 146 | 159 | 174 | 183 | 192 | 204 | 217 | 241 | 268 |
45 | 107 | 112 | 118 | 127 | 136 | 148 | 161 | 169 | 178 | 189 | 200 | 222 | 246 | 260 |
45.5 | 105 | 110 | 119 | 127 | 138 | 150 | 157 | 165 | 175 | 185 | 205 | 227 | 239 | 252 |
46 | 105 | 113 | 121 | 131 | 142 | 149 | 156 | 165 | 175 | 193 | 214 | 225 | 237 | 250 |
46.5 | 108 | 116 | 125 | 135 | 141 | 148 | 157 | 166 | 183 | 202 | 212 | 223 | 235 | 247 |
47 | 108 | 117 | 126 | 131 | 138 | 146 | 154 | 169 | 186 | 196 | 206 | 216 | 227 | 239 |
47.5 | 108 | 117 | 123 | 128 | 135 | 143 | 157 | 172 | 181 | 190 | 199 | 209 | 219 | 231 |
48 | 108 | 113 | 118 | 124 | 132 | 144 | 158 | 166 | 174 | 182 | 191 | 200 | 210 | |
48.5 | 105 | 109 | 115 | 121 | 132 | 145 | 152 | 159 | 167 | 174 | 183 | 191 | | |
49 | 105 | 110 | 116 | 126 | 138 | 145 | 151 | 158 | 166 | 174 | 182 | | | |
49.5 | 106 | 111 | 121 | 132 | 138 | 144 | 151 | 158 | 165 | 173 | | | | |
50 | 106 | 115 | 125 | 131 | 137 | 143 | 150 | 156 | 163 | | | | | |
50.5 | 109 | 119 | 124 | 130 | 136 | 142 | 148 | 155 | | | | | | |
51 | 109 | 114 | 119 | 124 | 130 | 135 | 141 | | | | | | | |
51.5 | 105 | 109 | 114 | 118 | 124 | 129 | | | | | | | | |
52 | 105 | 109 | 114 | 118 | 123 | | | | | | | | | |
52.5 | 104 | 109 | 113 | 118 | | | | | | | | | | |
53 | 104 | 109 | 113 | | | | | | | | | | | |
53.5 | 104 | 109 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
54 | 104 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Written by:
Michael Shackleford