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Betting College Football
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Introduction
The purpose of this page is to explain the various ways to bet on college football. I've provided my usual statistics and advice.
Averages
The following table may not be of any help in the sports books, but I thought it was an interesting way to compare college football to the NFL.Football Averages
| Statistic | College | NFL |
|---|---|---|
| Total points scored | 52.80 | 42.15 |
| Over/under total | 48.31 | 41.32 |
| Point spread | -5.40 | -2.45 |
| Home margin of victory | 5.68 | 2.66 |
| First downs | 39.49 | 37.64 |
| Rushing attempts | 77.15 | 55.21 |
| Rushing yards | 313.12 | 229.52 |
| Pass attempts | 62.34 | 66.44 |
| Pass yards | 438.52 | 430.63 |
| Interceptions | 2.06 | 2.02 |
| Kickoff return yards | 166.14 | 161.90 |
| Penalties | 12.81 | 12.43 |
| Penalty yards | 109.36 | 102.77 |
| Fumbles | 3.44 | 2.94 |
| Fumbles lost | 1.74 | 1.41 |
| Punts | 10.35 | 9.66 |
| Punt yards | 419.42 | 415.04 |
| Sacks | 4.13 | 4.54 |
| Sack yards | 27.66 | 29.18 |
| Quarter 1 points | 11.95 | 8.33 |
| Quarter 2 points | 15.39 | 12.94 |
| Quarter 3 points | 12.07 | 8.92 |
| Quarter 4 points | 13.30 | 11.75 |
Margin of Victory
The following table shows the count and frequency of each margin of victory.Margin of Victory
| Margin of Victory |
Games | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 413 | 3.35% |
| 2 | 327 | 2.65% |
| 3 | 1187 | 9.63% |
| 4 | 475 | 3.85% |
| 5 | 324 | 2.63% |
| 6 | 362 | 2.94% |
| 7 | 901 | 7.31% |
| 8 | 294 | 2.38% |
| 9 | 152 | 1.23% |
| 10 | 535 | 4.34% |
| 11 | 289 | 2.34% |
| 12 | 221 | 1.79% |
| 13 | 225 | 1.82% |
| 14 | 533 | 4.32% |
| 15 | 139 | 1.13% |
| 16 | 169 | 1.37% |
| 17 | 488 | 3.96% |
| 18 | 308 | 2.50% |
| 19 | 179 | 1.45% |
| 20 | 267 | 2.17% |
| 21 | 452 | 3.67% |
| 22 | 161 | 1.31% |
| 23 | 174 | 1.41% |
| 24 | 352 | 2.85% |
| 25 | 226 | 1.83% |
| 26 | 135 | 1.09% |
| 27 | 213 | 1.73% |
| 28 | 337 | 2.73% |
| 29 | 99 | 0.80% |
| 30 | 130 | 1.05% |
| 31 | 270 | 2.19% |
| 32 | 160 | 1.30% |
| 33 | 73 | 0.59% |
| 34 | 167 | 1.35% |
| 35 | 219 | 1.78% |
| 36 | 63 | 0.51% |
| 37 | 93 | 0.75% |
| 38 | 173 | 1.40% |
| 39 | 91 | 0.74% |
| 40 | 37 | 0.30% |
| 41 | 94 | 0.76% |
| 42 | 128 | 1.04% |
| 43 | 28 | 0.23% |
| 44 | 49 | 0.40% |
| 45 | 96 | 0.78% |
| 46 | 41 | 0.33% |
| 47 | 25 | 0.20% |
| 48 | 63 | 0.51% |
| 49 | 77 | 0.62% |
| 50 | 20 | 0.16% |
| 51 | 23 | 0.19% |
| 52 | 46 | 0.37% |
| 53 | 30 | 0.24% |
| 54 | 7 | 0.06% |
| 55 | 26 | 0.21% |
| 56 | 35 | 0.28% |
| 57 | 6 | 0.05% |
| 58 | 19 | 0.15% |
| 59 | 21 | 0.17% |
| 60 | 8 | 0.06% |
| 61 | 1 | 0.01% |
| 62 | 14 | 0.11% |
| 63 | 23 | 0.19% |
| 64+ | 38 | 0.31% |
| Total | 12331 | 100.00% |
The next table shows the top ten margin of victories, in order.
Top Ten Margin of Victories
| Rank | Margin of Victory |
Games | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 1,187 | 9.63% |
| 2 | 7 | 901 | 7.31% |
| 3 | 10 | 535 | 4.34% |
| 4 | 14 | 533 | 4.32% |
| 5 | 17 | 488 | 3.96% |
| 6 | 4 | 475 | 3.85% |
| 7 | 21 | 452 | 3.67% |
| 8 | 1 | 413 | 3.35% |
| 9 | 6 | 362 | 2.94% |
| 10 | 24 | 352 | 2.85% |
| Total | 5,698 | 46.21% |
Point Spread
The primary way to bet any football game is against the spread. The following table shows the probability of a win, loss, and tie, as well as the expected value according to all combinations of betting on a home/away and underdog/favorite. This table assumes the bettor is laying 11 to win 10, which is almost always the case.
Compare Online NCAAF Odds
American Football NCAAF
Later
Money Line
-145
126
Spread
-105
(-3.5)
-110
(3.5)
Featured Insight
Kansas State's strong offense may challenge Iowa State's defense. Watch for explosive plays. Consider recent form and home advantage in betting. Weather may influence play style.
Kansas Jayhawks
Fresno State Bulldogs
Money Line
-600
425
Spread
100
(-14)
-110
(13.5)
Featured Insight
Kansas Jayhawks have shown strong offensive play, but Fresno State's defense might pose challenges. Watch for Kansas’s passing game; if they break through, it could decide the match.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Money Line
-340
236
Spread
-110
(-8.5)
-110
(8.5)
Total
Featured Insight
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are showing strong offense this season, making them favorites against Sam Houston State Bearkats, who are struggling with their defense. Key player performances and turnover margins could be decisive.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Stanford Cardinal
Money Line
103
-136
Spread
-110
(2.5)
-110
(-2.5)
Featured Insight
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors utilize a potent offense, often relying on their quarterback's arm. Stanford's strength lies in a disciplined defense and strategic play-calling.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Money Line
210
-250
Spread
-105
(6.5)
-110
(-7)
Featured Insight
Cincinnati's solid defense challenges Nebraska's offensive depth. Expect a tight game with strategic plays. Betting on defense may favor Cincinnati slightly, but Nebraska's home advantage is significant.
Akron Zips
Wyoming Cowboys
Money Line
230
-330
Spread
-110
(9.5)
-110
(-9.5)
Featured Insight
The Wyoming Cowboys are favored over the Akron Zips due to their solid defense and home advantage. The Zips struggle on the road and have a weaker offense. Wyoming's consistent run game poses a challenge for Akron. Consider betting on Wyoming to cover the spread.
South Florida Bulls
Boise State Broncos
Money Line
250
-370
Spread
-110
(9.5)
-110
(-9.5)
Featured Insight
Boise State's strong offensive lineup and home-field advantage make them favorites over the South Florida Bulls. However, keep an eye on South Florida's dynamic quarterback who could surprise with big plays.
NC State Wolfpack
East Carolina Pirates
Money Line
-526
330
Spread
-110
(-12.5)
-110
(12.5)
Featured Insight
NC State Wolfpack appears strong in this matchup against East Carolina Pirates. Their solid defense and experienced quarterback give them an edge.
UCF Knights
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Money Line
-847
480
Spread
-110
(-16.5)
-110
(16.5)
Featured Insight
The UCF Knights are typically favored given their strong history and recruitment. Jacksonville State, though a rising team, may struggle against UCF's dynamic offense and solid defense. UCF's home advantage also plays a critical role.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Ohio Bobcats
Money Line
-481
310
Spread
-110
(-10.5)
-110
(10.5)
Featured Insight
Rutgers Scarlet Knights are favored in their matchup against Ohio Bobcats due to a robust defense and home-field advantage. Ohio struggles with their passing game, which might be a point of exploitation for Rutgers.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Money Line
-1299
600
Spread
-105
(-17.5)
-110
(17.5)
Featured Insight
Minnesota Golden Gophers are favored against the Buffalo Bulls due to their stronger roster and home-field advantage. Minnesota's defensive line is a key factor in the matchup, likely shutting down Buffalo's offensive attempts.
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Money Line
-1299
610
Spread
-110
(-17.5)
-105
(17)
Featured Insight
The Wisconsin Badgers, known for their strong defensive lineup and consistent running game, face the Miami (OH) RedHawks, who have shown resilience this season.
San Jose State Spartans
Central Michigan Chippewas
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-10.5)
-110
(10.5)
Total
Featured Insight
San Jose State Spartans have shown strong defensive skills but struggle offensively. Central Michigan Chippewas have a solid running game, which could exploit the Spartans' defense. Betting on Central Michigan might be wise given their recent form.
Charlotte 49ers
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Money Line
236
-340
Spread
-110
(9)
-104
(-8.5)
Featured Insight
Charlotte 49ers vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers presents a competitive matchup. Charlotte's offensive line seeks to improve against Appalachian's robust defense. The Mountaineers have a strong home advantage and a history of success against the 49ers.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Kennesaw State Owls
Money Line
-1263
603
Spread
-110
(-17.5)
-110
(17.5)
Featured Insight
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons, playing at home, are expected favorites against the Kennesaw State Owls. Wake Forest's strong offense and experience in the ACC should secure their advantage. Kennesaw State, transitioning from FCS to FBS, faces a tough challenge.
UNLV Rebels
Money Line
340
-526
Spread
-110
(13.5)
-110
(-13.5)
Total
Featured Insight
Sam Houston State Bearkats face a challenging matchup against the UNLV Rebels. The Rebels have shown a strong offensive lineup, making them favorites. The Bearkats, however, could surprise with their tenacious defense.
Money Line
-500
320
Spread
-110
(-10.5)
-110
(10.5)
Featured Insight
San Jose State's defense will be crucial against Central Michigan's agile offense. With both teams having mixed records, look for turnovers to play a decisive role.
Clemson Tigers
LSU Tigers
Money Line
-148
130
Spread
-110
(-3)
-110
(3)
Featured Insight
Clemson's strong defense faces LSU's explosive offense. Key players and turnovers could decide the game. Weather conditions and venue often influence play styles. Monitor injuries and betting line shifts.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Money Line
150
-173
Spread
-105
(4.5)
-110
(-4)
Featured Insight
Colorado Buffaloes face Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Buffaloes' dynamic offense against Jackets' resilient defense will be key. Keep an eye on turnovers and special teams to determine the outcome.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Texas Longhorns
Money Line
-149
130
Spread
-105
(-3)
-110
(3)
Featured Insight
Ohio State's strong defense could be the key against Texas' explosive offense. Look for Ohio's experience to play a pivotal role.
UCLA Bruins
Utah Utes
Money Line
160
-185
Spread
100
(4)
-105
(-4.5)
Featured Insight
UCLA Bruins vs. Utah Utes: Both teams have strong defenses. Look for a close game, possibly decided by turnovers and special teams plays.
Purdue Boilermakers
Ball State Cardinals
Money Line
-952
500
Spread
-110
(-16.5)
-110
(16.5)
Featured Insight
Purdue Boilermakers are favored against Ball State Cardinals, with their strong offense being a key factor. Ball State needs a tight defense strategy to combat Purdue's aerial attacks.
Virginia Cavaliers
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Money Line
-526
330
Spread
-110
(-12.5)
-110
(12.5)
Featured Insight
The Virginia Cavaliers face the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Virginia's defense has struggled, conceding numerous points per game. Coastal Carolina has a strong offensive lineup with a solid passing game.
Maryland Terrapins
Florida Atlantic Owls
Money Line
-952
510
Spread
-105
(-17)
-110
(16.5)
Featured Insight
Maryland's strong offense, led by quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, may challenge Florida Atlantic's defense significantly. The Owls need to tighten their defense to remain competitive. Home advantage and recent form favor Maryland.
Georgia Bulldogs
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-39.5)
-105
(38.5)
Featured Insight
The Georgia Bulldogs, a powerhouse in collegiate football, are favored against the Marshall Thundering Herd. Georgia's robust defense and seasoned offense typically make them formidable opponents.
Indiana Hoosiers
Old Dominion Monarchs
Money Line
-2273
790
Spread
-110
(-23.5)
-110
(23.5)
Featured Insight
The Indiana Hoosiers face the Old Dominion Monarchs in an intriguing matchup. Indiana boasts a solid defense, which could challenge Old Dominion's offense. However, Old Dominion's passing game might pose problems for Indiana.
Kentucky Wildcats
Toledo Rockets
Money Line
-526
340
Spread
-110
(-10.5)
-110
(10.5)
Featured Insight
Kentucky Wildcats, a stronger SEC team, face the MAC’s Toledo Rockets. Kentucky’s aggressive defense and strong home game performance make them favorites. However, Toledo’s spirited offense, led by a dynamic quarterback, could pose challenges.
Money Line
-1587
680
Spread
-110
(-17.5)
-110
(17.5)
Featured Insight
Michigan State Spartans are heavily favored against Western Michigan Broncos, backed by a strong defensive lineup. The Spartans' home-field advantage and superior talent give them the edge. Western Michigan aims to upset with an aggressive offensive strategy.
Michigan Wolverines
New Mexico Lobos
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-34.5)
-110
(34.5)
Featured Insight
The Michigan Wolverines, known for their strong defense and rushing game, are heavily favored against the New Mexico Lobos. The Wolverines' dominant roster and home advantage make them the clear favorites.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Nevada Wolf Pack
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-45.5)
-110
(45.5)
Featured Insight
Penn State, known for a strong defensive lineup, faces off against Nevada's Wolf Pack, which has historically struggled against ranked teams. Penn State's home-field advantage and depth make them favorites.
Money Line
-117
-113
Spread
-110
(-1.5)
-110
(1.5)
Featured Insight
Temple Owls have a strong record at home, giving them a potential edge over the UMass Minutemen. While UMass has shown some offensive improvements, their defense remains a concern.
Florida State Seminoles
Alabama Crimson Tide
Money Line
400
-429
Spread
-110
(13)
-110
(-13)
Featured Insight
Focus on Alabama’s strong defense and FSU’s offensive strategies. Weather and home advantage play crucial roles. Consider trends in recent matchups and current player performances.
Baylor Bears
Auburn Tigers
Money Line
120
-130
Spread
-105
(2.5)
-110
(-2.5)
Featured Insight
Baylor Bears face Auburn Tigers; expect a close game. Key players' performance critical. Watch for strategic plays. Weather may impact game dynamics.
Tennessee Volunteers
Money Line
-470
345
Spread
-110
(-12.5)
-110
(12.5)
Featured Insight
Tennessee Volunteers show strong defense and explosive offense against Syracuse. Consider betting on Tennessee's margins, but watch Syracuse's surprising plays. Weather conditions could impact performance.
Utah State Aggies
Money Line
-180
134
Spread
-110
(-3.5)
-107
(4)
Featured Insight
Utah State Aggies have a strong offensive lineup against UTEP Miners. The Aggies' quarterback shows consistency in throwing, which could be pivotal. UTEP's defense needs improvement to counter Aggies' aggressive play.
Arizona Wildcats
Money Line
-599
370
Spread
-110
(-13)
-110
(13)
Featured Insight
Arizona Wildcats have a strong offensive lineup, but Hawaii Rainbow Warriors' defense can be unpredictable. Look for Arizona to exploit passing plays. Hawaii's home advantage may be a factor, adding pressure to Arizona's defense.
Washington Huskies
Money Line
-1299
600
Spread
-110
(-18.5)
-110
(18.5)
Featured Insight
The Washington Huskies are favorites against the Colorado State Rams, boasting a strong offense led by their quarterback. Colorado State's defense will need to step up to contain Washington's passing game.
Georgia Southern Eagles
Money Line
-128
-103
Spread
-105
(-2.5)
-105
(2)
Featured Insight
The Fresno State Bulldogs face a challenging match against Georgia Southern Eagles. Bulldogs' strength lies in their robust defense, while the Eagles showcase an agile offense. Key players' performance will be pivotal.
Texas State Bobcats
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Money Line
-649
390
Spread
-110
(-14)
-110
(14)
Featured Insight
The Texas State Bobcats face the Eastern Michigan Eagles in this thrilling NCAAF matchup. Texas State's dynamic offense, led by a promising quarterback, looks to capitalize on Eastern Michigan's inconsistent defense.
Ole Miss Rebels
Georgia State Panthers
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-36.5)
100
(37)
Featured Insight
Ole Miss Rebels are heavily favored against Georgia State Panthers. With a strong offensive lineup, Ole Miss is expected to dominate. Georgia State's defense has been inconsistent, which may struggle against Ole Miss's high-tempo game.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Rice Owls
Money Line
-752
430
Spread
-110
(-14.5)
-110
(14.5)
Featured Insight
The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns show strong offensive play and consistency, making them a betting favorite. Rice Owls have improved defensive strategies but struggle against dynamic offenses.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Money Line
370
-599
Spread
-105
(13.5)
-110
(-13.5)
Featured Insight
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a strong record at home, while Southern Mississippi struggles against higher-tier opponents. Mississippi State's robust defense will likely stymie Southern Mississippi's offense.
USC Trojans
Missouri State Bears
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-32.5)
-110
(32.5)
Featured Insight
The USC Trojans have a strong offensive lineup, making them favorites against the Missouri State Bears. Missouri State will need a robust defense to counter USC's passing game.
Tulane Green Wave
Northwestern Wildcats
Money Line
-230
190
Spread
100
(-7)
-110
(6.5)
Featured Insight
In the matchup between Tulane Green Wave and Northwestern Wildcats, Tulane's robust offense and strong defensive lineup make them favorites. Northwestern, dealing with inconsistencies, faces a challenge.
Texas A&M Aggies
UTSA Roadrunners
Money Line
-1587
680
Spread
-110
(-21)
-105
(20.5)
Featured Insight
Texas A&M Aggies, playing in the SEC, have faced tougher competition, making them favorites against the UTSA Roadrunners. With a strong home record and a versatile offense, the Aggies are expected to cover the spread.
California Golden Bears
Money Line
-132
115
Spread
-105
(-2.5)
-110
(2.5)
Featured Insight
Oregon State Beavers vs. California Golden Bears will likely hinge on Oregon State's strong defense against Cal's offense. Cal's performance at home is a key factor, but Oregon State's recent form gives them an edge.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Virginia Tech Hokies
Money Line
-370
285
Spread
-110
(-9.5)
-110
(9.5)
Featured Insight
Expect a close matchup as both teams boast strong defenses. South Carolina's passing attack could be crucial. Monitor weather conditions, as they might affect game dynamics and betting strategies.
Miami Hurricanes
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Money Line
120
-140
Spread
100
(2.5)
-105
(-3)
Featured Insight
Miami's aggressive offense faces Notre Dame's strong defense. Key players will decide the close match. Betting odds favor Notre Dame but expect a competitive game.
North Carolina Tar Heels
TCU Horned Frogs
Money Line
105
115
Spread
105
(2.5)
-110
(-2.5)
Featured Insight
Consider the Tar Heels' strong offense against TCU's defense. Key players and home advantage might influence the outcome. Check the latest stats and weather conditions before placing bets.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Iowa State Cyclones face off against the Iowa Hawkeyes in a classic rivalry game. Iowa's strong defense is a key factor, often limiting opponents' scoring opportunities. Iowa State relies on a dynamic offense to outmaneuver defenses.
SMU Mustangs
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The SMU Mustangs vs. Baylor Bears match is thrilling for bettors. Both teams have strong offensive lineups, but Baylor's home-field advantage can't be overlooked. Recent performances hint at a high-scoring game.
Duke Blue Devils
Illinois Fighting Illini
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Duke's strong defensive performance could be pivotal against Illinois, who has struggled offensively. Key players for Duke include a solid secondary and a robust linebacker corps, which may give them an edge.
Missouri Tigers
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Missouri Tigers vs. Kansas Jayhawks game promises excitement as both teams have shown strong performances this season. Missouri has a strong defense, while Kansas boasts a high-powered offense.
Oklahoma Sooners
Money Line
Spread
-115
(-2)
-105
(2)
Total
Featured Insight
The Oklahoma Sooners and Michigan Wolverines are set for an exciting matchup. Oklahoma's offense is explosive, averaging 40 points per game, while Michigan's defense is one of the nation's best, allowing only 15 points per game.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Clemson Tigers are strong favorites in the matchup against Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets with a powerful offense and solid defense. Georgia Tech's inconsistency could be a disadvantage. Recent performances and head-to-head records favor Clemson.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(8.5)
-110
(-8.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The Georgia Bulldogs are a dominant force, especially at home, boasting a strong record against top-ranked teams. Tennessee Volunteers struggle on the road, and their defense may falter against Georgia's high-powered offense.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Pittsburgh Panthers
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The West Virginia Mountaineers face the Pittsburgh Panthers in a classic rivalry. Both teams show solid defense. Offensively, the Mountaineers depend on their run game, while the Panthers have a balanced attack.
Florida Gators
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-5)
-110
(5)
Total
Featured Insight
LSU Tigers and Florida Gators clash in a thrilling NCAAF matchup. LSU's dynamic offense faces Florida's resilient defense. The Tigers excel in aerial attacks but must contend with the Gators' strong secondary.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-7)
-110
(7)
Total
Featured Insight
Notre Dame's defensive strength faces a challenge with Texas A&M's dynamic offense, led by a versatile quarterback. While Notre Dame has a solid track record in key matchups, Texas A&M’s recent form is impressive.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-4)
-110
(4)
Total
Featured Insight
The Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators face off in a highly anticipated match. Miami's strong passing game will test Florida's secondary, while the Gators' defensive front aims to pressure Miami's quarterback.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
When the Indiana Hoosiers clash with the Illinois Fighting Illini, expect a tight matchup. The Hoosiers have shown strong defensive tactics, while the Illini hold a slight edge in offensive prowess. Weather conditions and home-field advantage could tilt the scales.
Oregon Ducks
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers clash is often intense. The Ducks usually have a strong offense, boasting quick plays and high scores, while the Beavers focus on a robust defense. Home advantage can play a crucial role.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Utah Utes and Texas Tech Red Raiders face off in an exciting NCAAF showdown. Utah, known for its strong defense and disciplined play, will rely on these strengths. Texas Tech brings an explosive offense to the field, posing challenges for Utah’s defense.
Money Line
129
-173
Spread
-110
(3)
-110
(-3)
Featured Insight
The Michigan Wolverines are favorites against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, boasting a strong defense and consistent offensive play. Nebraska struggles with turnovers, which could be exploited by Michigan.
Washington State Cougars
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Washington Huskies have shown consistent strength this season with a solid defense and high-scoring offense, making them favorites against the Washington State Cougars. The Cougars, while having an explosive offense, struggle defensively.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-4)
-110
(4)
Total
Featured Insight
The Georgia Bulldogs are favored against the Alabama Crimson Tide due to their strong defense and efficient offense. Key players like Georgia’s quarterback and the running back could dominate the game.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Arkansas Razorbacks face a challenging match against Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Despite strong performances, the Razorbacks are underdogs. Notre Dame's formidable defense and home advantage could be decisive. Razorbacks need to exploit any defensive lapses.
Money Line
Spread
-105
(-1.5)
-115
(1.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The Ole Miss Rebels face off against the LSU Tigers in a clash of SEC powerhouses. Watch for Ole Miss's potent offense, led by a dynamic quarterback. LSU's defense, though strong, may struggle against the Rebels' pace.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Washington Huskies face a tough challenge against the mighty Ohio State Buckeyes. With a strong offense led by dynamic quarterback play, Ohio State is a favorite. However, Washington's resilient defense could surprise.
Money Line
Spread
-115
(-5.5)
-105
(5.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The Penn State Nittany Lions face the Oregon Ducks in what promises to be an intense matchup. Penn State's strong defense will be crucial against Oregon's fast-paced offense.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Florida Gators and the Texas Longhorns are set for an exciting matchup in college football. The Gators have shown resilience with a sturdy defense, while the Longhorns boast a high-powered offense. Bettors should consider the contrasting styles of play.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
In the upcoming matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Clemson Tigers, expect a tightly contested game. The Tar Heels have a strong offense, while the Tigers boast a tough defense.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(7.5)
-110
(-7.5)
Total
Featured Insight
Florida State's strong offense may clash with Miami's improved defense. Expect a closely contested game influenced by turnovers and big plays. Watch for star QB performances and special teams' impact. Home advantage might play a role.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Notre Dame hosts Boise State in a high-stakes matchup. The Fighting Irish boast a strong defense, while Boise State relies on its explosive offense. Recent form favors Notre Dame with their consistent performance at home.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Alabama Crimson Tide is heavily favored against Vanderbilt Commodores. Alabama boasts a powerful offense and solid defense, while Vanderbilt struggles with consistency. Betting trends highlight Alabama's dominant performance in recent matchups.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Utah Utes, known for their strong defense, face Arizona State Sun Devils. Utah's recent performances suggest a strategic edge. Arizona State has a vulnerable defense, which Utah's balanced offense can exploit.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Georgia Bulldogs demonstrate superiority with a robust defense and dynamic offense. Auburn Tigers may struggle to break through Georgia’s solid line-up. Betting on Georgia is favorable, considering their current form.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Oregon's high-octane offense gives them an edge against Indiana’s struggling defense. The Ducks have versatile playmakers, making them difficult to defend. Indiana, however, might surprise with their resilience and strong aerial attack.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(1.5)
-110
(-1.5)
Total
Featured Insight
USC Trojans face a tough challenge against the Michigan Wolverines. USC's offense is powerful but must overcome Michigan's staunch defense. The Wolverines’ consistent performances make them slight favorites.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Ohio State Buckeyes are strong favorites against Illinois Fighting Illini, thanks to their superior offense and defense stats. Illinois struggles against highly-ranked teams, and playing in Ohio State’s home field makes their challenge harder.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-11.5)
-110
(11.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners face off in a heated rivalry. Texas’s strong defense will challenge Oklahoma’s explosive offense. Key players include Texas QB Quinn Ewers and Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel. This matchup often affects Big 12 standings.
Louisville Cardinals
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Miami Hurricanes face the Louisville Cardinals in a crucial NCAAF matchup. Miami boasts a strong offense led by their quarterback, while Louisville's defense has been solid this season. Key players for Miami will be tested against a resilient Louisville squad.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-12.5)
-110
(12.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers are both powerhouses in college football. Alabama's strong defense and seasoned offense give them a slight edge. Tennessee's dynamic playmakers can pose threats, but consistency is key.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The matchup between Arizona State Sun Devils and Texas Tech Red Raiders promises an intense battle. Both teams have shown offensive prowess, with Arizona State having a slightly better defensive record.
BYU Cougars
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The BYU Cougars and Utah Utes rivalry game promises excitement. Utah, known for their solid defense, has an edge. BYU's dynamic offense could be a challenge to contain. Watch for key player matchups. Weather may impact play; adjust bets accordingly.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Clemson Tigers, a powerhouse in NCAAF, face SMU Mustangs, known for their dynamic offense. Consider Clemson's solid defense as a key factor. SMU's explosive plays can challenge any team.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-9.5)
-110
(9.5)
Total
Featured Insight
In the NCAAF match, Georgia Bulldogs have a strong defense and a consistent winning record. Ole Miss Rebels are known for their dynamic offense but may struggle against Georgia's solid defensive unit.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Michigan Wolverines boast a strong defense and a formidable run game, making them a tough opponent for the Washington Huskies. Washington needs to improve its offensive consistency to challenge Michigan effectively.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Iowa Hawkeyes will face the Penn State Nittany Lions in a thrilling NCAAF matchup. Iowa's strong defense might clash with Penn State's dynamic offense. Watch for Penn State's home-field advantage at Beaver Stadium.
Money Line
Spread
-107
(-12.5)
-113
(12.5)
Total
Featured Insight
Notre Dame's strong defense faces a challenge against USC's explosive offense. USC's quarterback is leading one of the top offenses this season, but Notre Dame's defense is potent at home. Look for turnovers and defensive stops as potential game changers.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored in their matchup against the South Carolina Gamecocks, with a strong defense and powerful offense. Betting on Alabama might be wise due to their consistent performance in recent games.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(4)
-110
(-4)
Total
Featured Insight
The Kansas Jayhawks face off against the Kansas State Wildcats in an intense NCAAF rivalry. Betting insights suggest a competitive game, with Kansas State having a slight edge due to their robust defense.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-4.5)
-110
(4.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The LSU Tigers face a tough game against the Texas A&M Aggies. LSU's offense is explosive, led by a dynamic quarterback. Texas A&M boasts a solid defense, but has struggled on the road. Both teams have playoff aspirations, making this a high-stakes matchup.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(8.5)
-110
(-8.5)
Total
Featured Insight
Michigan Wolverines are the dominant team, with a strong defense and a high-scoring offense. Michigan State Spartans face challenges in consistency and will need a solid game plan to compete.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Utah Utes have shown a strong defense this season, ranking high in turnovers and sacks. Colorado Buffaloes struggle with consistency, especially on the offensive front. Utah's home advantage could be pivotal.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Kansas State's balanced offense and strong defensive line may give them an edge against Texas Tech. While Texas Tech excels in offensive playmaking, their defense has struggled against running attacks.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The NCAAF matchup between SMU Mustangs and Miami Hurricanes is expected to be thrilling. The Hurricanes boast a strong defense, while SMU's explosive offense is a force to reckon with.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-4.5)
-110
(4.5)
Total
Featured Insight
Ohio State and Penn State are set for a key matchup in college football. Ohio State's strong offense contrasts with Penn State's impressive defense. Watch for Ohio State's passing game, as it could be decisive.
Money Line
Spread
-115
(8)
-105
(-8)
Total
Featured Insight
The Florida Gators facing the Georgia Bulldogs is a classic SEC rivalry. Georgia has had a strong season with a solid defense. Florida has shown inconsistencies but can be unpredictable on offense.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-5)
-110
(5)
Total
Featured Insight
This clash between Alabama and LSU is set to be a high-stakes encounter. Alabama, with strong defense and dynamic offense, holds a slight edge. However, LSU's explosive plays and home advantage could turn the game.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Clemson Tigers and Florida State Seminoles face off in a classic rivalry. Clemson has struggled this season, while FSU is gaining momentum. Key players for Clemson include QB Cade Klubnik, while FSU relies on QB Jordan Travis.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
In the upcoming NCAAF game, Penn State Nittany Lions are favored against Indiana Hoosiers. The Lions' strong defense and home advantage give them an edge. Indiana will need to overcome their recent struggles to compete.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Clemson Tigers have a strong defense, but Louisville Cardinals' dynamic offense poses a challenge. Clemson's home advantage and recent form make them slight favorites.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-14)
-110
(14)
Total
Featured Insight
Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners are both powerhouse teams, making their clash eagerly anticipated. Alabama's robust defense and disciplined playstyle often give them the upper hand.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-2.5)
-110
(2.5)
Total
Featured Insight
Georgia Bulldogs have a strong defense and an efficient running game, making them favorites. The Texas Longhorns boast a potent offensive lineup but face challenges against Georgia's robust defense. Key players and turnover battles could decide the match.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Colorado Buffaloes are facing the Arizona State Sun Devils in a crucial matchup. Colorado's dynamic offense could exploit Arizona State's weaker defense, potentially leading to higher scores. However, Arizona State's home advantage can be a significant factor.
Money Line
Spread
-105
(-2.5)
-115
(2.5)
Total
Featured Insight
North Carolina boasts a strong offense led by an impressive quarterback, while Duke’s defense has struggled in key matchups. The Tar Heels have a solid home advantage, but Duke could capitalize on any turnovers.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers game is a thrilling matchup. Florida's strong offense led by their dynamic quarterback faces Tennessee's solid defense.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Utah Utes and Kansas State Wildcats are set for a thrilling NCAAF clash. Utah's strong defense could counter Kansas State's versatile offense. Betting strategies might favor Utah due to their recent form and home advantage.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Oregon Ducks possess a dynamic offense driven by a balanced attack, while USC Trojans lean heavily on their passing game. Betting on Oregon might be favorable given their recent form, especially if playing at home.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Analyzing the matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma shows a strong offense led by their quarterback. Missouri's defense will need to step up to contain them.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes matchup is poised to be a classic Big Ten battle. Nebraska's offense must contend with Iowa's strong defense, known for their ability to force turnovers.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Mississippi State Bulldogs face off against Ole Miss Rebels in a much-anticipated rivalry. Key aspects include Mississippi State's strong defense and Ole Miss's dynamic offense. Ole Miss Rebels have an edge with their home advantage and recent form.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Georgia Bulldogs are the heavy favorites against Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, largely due to their strong overall performance this season. Georgia’s defense is among the best in the nation, making it challenging for Georgia Tech to score.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-10.5)
-110
(10.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies showdown promises intense rivalry action. The Longhorns boast a robust offense, led by a skilled quarterback. Meanwhile, the Aggies bring a tenacious defense to the field, aiming to stifle their opponents.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(7.5)
-110
(-7.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The Auburn Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide rivalry brings intense action. Alabama often enters favored, boasting a strong roster and strategic edge. Auburn's tenacity and unpredictable playstyle can surprise even seasoned bettors.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(5.5)
-110
(-5.5)
Total
Featured Insight
In the South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Clemson Tigers matchup, Clemson's robust defense and high-scoring offense give them an edge. South Carolina will rely heavily on their quarterback to make significant plays. Trends show Clemson often excels in key rivalry games.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Kansas State Wildcats will face the Colorado Buffaloes in an exciting NCAAF matchup. The Wildcats have demonstrated strong defensive play this season, while the Buffaloes rely on their dynamic offense.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-10.5)
-110
(10.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The Florida Gators face the Florida State Seminoles in a highly anticipated matchup. The Gators are known for their strong defense, while the Seminoles boast a high-powered offense. Expect a clash of styles, with Florida aiming to control the game tempo.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Washington Huskies face Oregon Ducks in a key NCAAF matchup. Both teams have potent offenses and strong QB performances. Watch for high scoring as both defenses have shown vulnerabilities.
Money Line
144
-193
Spread
-110
(5.5)
-110
(-5.5)
Featured Insight
Michigan's strong defense challenges Ohio State's explosive offense. Key matchup: Michigan's pass rush against Ohio's quarterback. Weather may impact play. Ohio favored, but Michigan a formidable opponent.
Money Line
Spread
-110
(-7.5)
-110
(7.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins rivalry promises an exciting matchup. USC's potent offense contrasts with UCLA's strong defense, making for an intriguing clash. USC's quarterback play has been stellar, but UCLA's strategic gameplay could pose challenges.
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The NC State Wolfpack faces the North Carolina Tar Heels in a closely matched NCAAF clash. Both teams boast strong defenses and prolific offenses, promising an intriguing contest.
Navy Midshipmen
Army Black Knights
Money Line
Spread
-115
(-3.5)
-105
(3.5)
Total
Featured Insight
The Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights rivalry is intense. Historically, games are close, often decided by fewer than ten points, with a strong emphasis on defense.
Point Spread Bets
| Bet | Prob. Win | Prob. Loss | Prob. Tie | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All underdogs | 0.496298 | 0.487591 | 0.016112 | -0.036411 |
| All favorites | 0.487591 | 0.496298 | 0.016112 | -0.053033 |
| All home | 0.498338 | 0.485605 | 0.016057 | -0.032571 |
| All away | 0.485605 | 0.498338 | 0.016057 | -0.056878 |
| Home underdog | 0.505600 | 0.474971 | 0.019429 | -0.015335 |
| Home favorite | 0.494567 | 0.491155 | 0.014278 | -0.041549 |
| Away underdog | 0.491155 | 0.494567 | 0.014278 | -0.048062 |
| Away favorite | 0.474971 | 0.505600 | 0.019429 | -0.073808 |
Over-Under
The next table shows the possible outcomes and expected value of betting against the over/under line.Over/Under Bets
| Bet | Prob. Win | Prob. Loss | Prob. Tie | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 0.503232 | 0.483320 | 0.013447 | -0.025836 |
| Over | 0.483320 | 0.503232 | 0.013447 | -0.063850 |
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Money Line
The following table shows the number of games in my data at each point spread on the underdog, and the number of times the underdog won. It also shows my estimated probability of winning after smoothing out all the ups and downs. The right column shows the fair line based on the estimated probability of winning.Probability of Underdog Winning by Point Spread
| Spread | Wins | Games | Actual Probability |
Estimated Probability |
Fair Money Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42 | 84 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100 |
| 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 48.5% | 106 |
| 1 | 125 | 268 | 46.6% | 47.1% | 112 |
| 1.5 | 130 | 246 | 52.8% | 45.6% | 119 |
| 2 | 124 | 264 | 47.0% | 44.2% | 126 |
| 2.5 | 224 | 482 | 46.5% | 42.7% | 134 |
| 3 | 318 | 700 | 45.4% | 41.3% | 142 |
| 3.5 | 182 | 507 | 35.9% | 39.9% | 151 |
| 4 | 134 | 326 | 41.1% | 38.5% | 160 |
| 4.5 | 97 | 279 | 34.8% | 37.1% | 169 |
| 5 | 89 | 227 | 39.2% | 35.8% | 179 |
| 5.5 | 102 | 285 | 35.8% | 34.5% | 190 |
| 6 | 109 | 330 | 33.0% | 33.2% | 202 |
| 6.5 | 130 | 418 | 31.1% | 31.9% | 214 |
| 7 | 172 | 551 | 31.2% | 30.6% | 227 |
| 7.5 | 100 | 365 | 27.4% | 29.4% | 240 |
| 8 | 60 | 227 | 26.4% | 28.2% | 255 |
| 8.5 | 59 | 202 | 29.2% | 27.0% | 270 |
| 9 | 55 | 199 | 27.6% | 25.9% | 286 |
| 9.5 | 57 | 242 | 23.6% | 24.8% | 304 |
| 10 | 121 | 401 | 30.2% | 23.7% | 322 |
| 10.5 | 56 | 250 | 22.4% | 22.7% | 341 |
| 11 | 48 | 196 | 24.5% | 21.7% | 362 |
| 11.5 | 30 | 141 | 21.3% | 20.7% | 383 |
| 12 | 36 | 175 | 20.6% | 19.7% | 407 |
| 12.5 | 38 | 162 | 23.5% | 18.8% | 431 |
| 13 | 38 | 222 | 17.1% | 18.0% | 457 |
| 13.5 | 59 | 245 | 24.1% | 17.1% | 484 |
| 14 | 48 | 331 | 14.5% | 16.3% | 514 |
| 14.5 | 29 | 184 | 15.8% | 15.5% | 544 |
| 15 | 19 | 139 | 13.7% | 14.8% | 577 |
| 15.5 | 20 | 110 | 18.2% | 14.0% | 612 |
| 16 | 25 | 134 | 18.7% | 13.4% | 649 |
| 16.5 | 16 | 162 | 9.9% | 12.7% | 688 |
| 17 | 26 | 246 | 10.6% | 12.1% | 729 |
| 17.5 | 18 | 144 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 773 |
| 18 | 7 | 110 | 6.4% | 10.9% | 820 |
| 18.5 | 7 | 82 | 8.5% | 10.3% | 869 |
| 19 | 11 | 109 | 10.1% | 9.8% | 921 |
| 19.5 | 9 | 87 | 10.3% | 9.3% | 977 |
| 20 | 11 | 152 | 7.2% | 8.8% | 1,036 |
| 20.5 | 12 | 113 | 10.6% | 8.3% | 1,098 |
| 21 | 6 | 153 | 3.9% | 7.9% | 1,164 |
| 21.5 | 4 | 104 | 3.8% | 7.5% | 1,234 |
| 22 | 7 | 107 | 6.5% | 7.1% | 1,308 |
| 22.5 | 5 | 68 | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1,387 |
| 23 | 7 | 93 | 7.5% | 6.4% | 1,470 |
| 23.5 | 5 | 98 | 5.1% | 6.0% | 1,559 |
| 24 | 4 | 126 | 3.2% | 5.7% | 1,653 |
| 24.5 | 4 | 85 | 4.7% | 5.4% | 1,752 |
| 25 | 7 | 66 | 10.6% | 5.1% | 1,858 |
| 25.5 | 1 | 48 | 2.1% | 4.8% | 1,969 |
| 26 | 2 | 68 | 2.9% | 4.6% | 2,088 |
| 26.5 | 6 | 61 | 9.8% | 4.3% | 2,214 |
| 27 | 1 | 79 | 1.3% | 4.1% | 2,347 |
| 27.5 | 6 | 73 | 8.2% | 3.9% | 2,488 |
| 28 | 6 | 108 | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2,638 |
| 28.5 | 5 | 57 | 8.8% | 3.5% | 2,796 |
| 29 | 2 | 52 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2,965 |
| 29.5 | 1 | 45 | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3,143 |
| 30 | 1 | 50 | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3,332 |
| 30.5 | 3 | 47 | 6.4% | 2.8% | 3,533 |
| 31 | 2 | 54 | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3,745 |
To get the probability of a favorite winning, just take the difference from 100% of the underdog winning in the same game. For example, a 7-point underdog has a 30.6% estimated chance of winning. Thus, a 7-point favorite would have a 100%-30.6% = 69.4% chance of winning.
It should be mentioned that the estimated probability does not take into consideration key numbers. For example, the difference in probability of winning between a 2.5- and 3.5-point underdog would likely be more than the 42.7% - 39.9% = 2.8% suggested in the estimated probability column.
I also looked at this curve by whether it was a home or away underdog but did not find it statistically different enough to pay special treatment to.
The following graph illustrates the actual and estimated probabilities of winning.
Buying Extra Points
The following table shows the probability of winning, not counting ties, after getting an extra 0.5 to 2.5 points according to the fair spread. For example, you consider the fair spread on a team to be +3, but somebody will give you +3.5, then your probability of winning would be 53.42%.Probability of Underdog Winning by Point Spread
| Spread | 0.5 Points | 1.0 Point | 1.5 Points | 2.0 Points | 2.5 Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -21 | 0.520918 | 0.536281 | 0.551179 | 0.558373 | 0.565335 |
| -20.5 | 0.515827 | 0.531190 | 0.538615 | 0.545809 | 0.558769 |
| -20 | 0.515827 | 0.523484 | 0.530910 | 0.544301 | 0.557260 |
| -19.5 | 0.507889 | 0.515546 | 0.529368 | 0.542759 | 0.558504 |
| -19 | 0.507889 | 0.522142 | 0.535964 | 0.552234 | 0.567979 |
| -18.5 | 0.514684 | 0.528938 | 0.545731 | 0.562001 | 0.568052 |
| -18 | 0.514684 | 0.532002 | 0.548795 | 0.555047 | 0.561098 |
| -17.5 | 0.517841 | 0.535159 | 0.541612 | 0.547864 | 0.553831 |
| -17 | 0.517841 | 0.524496 | 0.530949 | 0.537114 | 0.543082 |
| -16.5 | 0.506856 | 0.513510 | 0.519874 | 0.526040 | 0.544503 |
| -16 | 0.506856 | 0.513418 | 0.519782 | 0.538860 | 0.557322 |
| -15.5 | 0.506761 | 0.513324 | 0.533015 | 0.552092 | 0.560656 |
| -15 | 0.506761 | 0.527067 | 0.546758 | 0.555606 | 0.564170 |
| -14.5 | 0.520920 | 0.541225 | 0.550359 | 0.559207 | 0.567110 |
| -14 | 0.520920 | 0.530338 | 0.539471 | 0.547638 | 0.555541 |
| -13.5 | 0.509703 | 0.519121 | 0.527551 | 0.535717 | 0.544988 |
| -13 | 0.509703 | 0.518395 | 0.526824 | 0.536404 | 0.545675 |
| -12.5 | 0.508955 | 0.517647 | 0.527535 | 0.537115 | 0.555027 |
| -12 | 0.508955 | 0.519152 | 0.529040 | 0.547548 | 0.565460 |
| -11.5 | 0.510505 | 0.520702 | 0.539805 | 0.558313 | 0.563415 |
| -11 | 0.510505 | 0.530205 | 0.549309 | 0.554580 | 0.559682 |
| -10.5 | 0.520296 | 0.539995 | 0.545437 | 0.550708 | 0.559247 |
| -10 | 0.520296 | 0.525907 | 0.531348 | 0.540171 | 0.548710 |
| -9.5 | 0.505781 | 0.511392 | 0.520499 | 0.529322 | 0.554459 |
| -9 | 0.505781 | 0.515172 | 0.524279 | 0.550252 | 0.575390 |
| -8.5 | 0.509675 | 0.519066 | 0.545876 | 0.571850 | 0.582682 |
| -8 | 0.509675 | 0.537321 | 0.564131 | 0.575324 | 0.586157 |
| -7.5 | 0.528483 | 0.556129 | 0.567682 | 0.578875 | 0.588874 |
| -7 | 0.528483 | 0.540396 | 0.551950 | 0.562281 | 0.572279 |
| -6.5 | 0.512274 | 0.524188 | 0.534852 | 0.545183 | 0.559015 |
| -6 | 0.512274 | 0.523271 | 0.533934 | 0.548227 | 0.562059 |
| -5.5 | 0.511329 | 0.522325 | 0.537078 | 0.551370 | 0.581534 |
| -5 | 0.511329 | 0.526542 | 0.541294 | 0.572461 | 0.602625 |
| -4.5 | 0.515673 | 0.530885 | 0.563056 | 0.594223 | 0.604564 |
| -4 | 0.515673 | 0.548847 | 0.581017 | 0.591702 | 0.602043 |
| -3.5 | 0.534178 | 0.567352 | 0.578381 | 0.589065 | 0.601917 |
| -3 | 0.534178 | 0.545551 | 0.556579 | 0.569858 | 0.582709 |
| -2.5 | 0.511717 | 0.523090 | 0.536796 | 0.550075 | 0.554541 |
| -2 | 0.511717 | 0.525851 | 0.539557 | 0.544172 | 0.548638 |
| -1.5 | 0.514561 | 0.528695 | 0.533459 | 0.538074 | 0.550925 |
| -1 | 0.514561 | 0.519473 | 0.524237 | 0.537516 | 0.550367 |
| 0 | 0.505061 | 0.519194 | 0.532901 | 0.543586 | 0.553926 |
| 1 | 0.514561 | 0.525934 | 0.536963 | 0.568130 | 0.598294 |
| 1.5 | 0.511717 | 0.523090 | 0.555260 | 0.586428 | 0.600260 |
| 2 | 0.511717 | 0.544891 | 0.577062 | 0.591354 | 0.605186 |
| 2.5 | 0.534178 | 0.567352 | 0.582104 | 0.596396 | 0.606395 |
| 3 | 0.534178 | 0.549390 | 0.564143 | 0.574474 | 0.584472 |
| 3.5 | 0.515673 | 0.530885 | 0.541549 | 0.551880 | 0.562713 |
| 4 | 0.515673 | 0.526669 | 0.537333 | 0.548526 | 0.559359 |
| 4.5 | 0.511329 | 0.522325 | 0.533879 | 0.545072 | 0.570209 |
| 5 | 0.511329 | 0.523243 | 0.534796 | 0.560770 | 0.585907 |
| 5.5 | 0.512274 | 0.524188 | 0.550998 | 0.576972 | 0.585510 |
| 6 | 0.512274 | 0.539921 | 0.566731 | 0.575553 | 0.584092 |
| 6.5 | 0.528483 | 0.556129 | 0.565236 | 0.574058 | 0.579160 |
| 7 | 0.528483 | 0.537874 | 0.546980 | 0.552252 | 0.557354 |
| 7.5 | 0.509675 | 0.519066 | 0.524507 | 0.529779 | 0.547691 |
| 8 | 0.509675 | 0.515286 | 0.520728 | 0.539235 | 0.557147 |
| 8.5 | 0.505781 | 0.511392 | 0.530496 | 0.549004 | 0.558275 |
| 9 | 0.505781 | 0.525481 | 0.544584 | 0.554164 | 0.563435 |
| 9.5 | 0.520296 | 0.539995 | 0.549884 | 0.559463 | 0.567367 |
| 10 | 0.520296 | 0.530492 | 0.540380 | 0.548547 | 0.556450 |
| 10.5 | 0.510505 | 0.520702 | 0.529131 | 0.537297 | 0.545861 |
| 11 | 0.510505 | 0.519197 | 0.527626 | 0.536475 | 0.545038 |
| 11.5 | 0.508955 | 0.517647 | 0.526781 | 0.535629 | 0.554092 |
| 12 | 0.508955 | 0.518373 | 0.527507 | 0.546584 | 0.565046 |
| 12.5 | 0.509703 | 0.519121 | 0.538813 | 0.557890 | 0.563857 |
| 13 | 0.509703 | 0.530009 | 0.549700 | 0.555866 | 0.561833 |
| 13.5 | 0.520920 | 0.541225 | 0.547589 | 0.553755 | 0.559806 |
| 14 | 0.520920 | 0.527482 | 0.533846 | 0.540098 | 0.546149 |
| 14.5 | 0.506761 | 0.513324 | 0.519777 | 0.526029 | 0.541775 |
| 15 | 0.506761 | 0.513416 | 0.519869 | 0.536138 | 0.551884 |
| 15.5 | 0.506856 | 0.513510 | 0.530304 | 0.546573 | 0.559533 |
| 16 | 0.506856 | 0.524173 | 0.540967 | 0.554358 | 0.567317 |
| 16.5 | 0.517841 | 0.535159 | 0.548981 | 0.562372 | 0.569334 |
| 17 | 0.517841 | 0.532095 | 0.545917 | 0.553110 | 0.560072 |
| 17.5 | 0.514684 | 0.528938 | 0.536363 | 0.543557 | 0.557525 |
| 18 | 0.514684 | 0.522341 | 0.529767 | 0.544200 | 0.558168 |
| 18.5 | 0.507889 | 0.515546 | 0.530443 | 0.544877 | 0.563338 |
| 19 | 0.507889 | 0.523251 | 0.538149 | 0.557225 | 0.575686 |
| 19.5 | 0.515827 | 0.531190 | 0.550880 | 0.569956 | |
| 20 | 0.515827 | 0.536132 | 0.555822 | ||
| 20.5 | 0.520918 | 0.541223 | |||
| 21 | 0.520918 |
A practical use for the table above is in buying an extra half point. Most casinos will give you an extra half point if you lay 120, instead of the usual 110. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected value off of the five best spreads to buy a half point off of. Assuming a fair spread, the house edge laying 110 is 4.76%, this is worth the price to buy the extra half point off of spread of 3, 7, 10, and 14 only.
Value of Buying a Half Point by Point Spread
| Spread | Prob. Win |
Expected Value |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 53.42% | -2.07% |
| 7 | 52.85% | -3.11% |
| 14 | 52.09% | -4.50% |
| 10 | 52.03% | -4.61% |
| 17 | 51.78% | -5.06% |
Teasers
Teasers are basically a sucker bet. Under the exact right circumstances, with generous odds, they can be a good bet. However, for recreational bettors picking teasers arbitrarily, they are an awful value.For those who don't know, a teaser is like a parlay, except in the case of college football the player gets 6 to 7.5 extra points per leg. For these extra points, the wins are significantly less than a parlay.
To begin my analysis, the following table shows the probability of winning each leg with 6 to 7.5 extra points and according to whether the player is teasing a side, under, over, or doing a "Wong" teaser, which I'll explain momentarily.
Probability of each Teaser Leg Winning
| Points | Side | Under | Over | Wong |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 65.39% | 65.39% | 63.31% | 71.57% |
| 6.5 | 66.49% | 66.47% | 64.34% | |
| 7 | 67.72% | 67.58% | 65.47% | |
| 7.5 | 68.87% | 68.63% | 66.67% |
Before going further, let me explain what a Wong Teaser is. As far as I know, the first time the idea was published was in Stanford Wong's book Sharp Sports Betting. Wong correctly noted that 3 and 7 were the two most common margins of victory in the NFL. He advised teasing over these two key numbers. It works only fair spreads of +1.5 to +2.5 and -7.5 to -8.5. For example, teasing a +2 underdog to +8, allowing the team to lose by a field goal or touchdown and still cover the spread.
While this could be done with any number of points in the teaser, it is only worthwhile with six-point teasers, due to the depressed payouts getting more than six points.
That said, the next table shows the expected value of six-point teasers by the various number of picks and pays I have seen and across the type of bet being teased.
Expected Value of 6-Point Teasers
| Legs | Pays | Side | Under | Over | Wong |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5 to 6 | -21.60% | -21.62% | -26.52% | -6.08% |
| 2 | 1 | -14.48% | -14.49% | -19.84% | 2.45% |
| 3 | 1.4 | -32.89% | -32.91% | -39.10% | -12.00% |
| 3 | 1.6 | -27.30% | -27.32% | -34.03% | -4.67% |
| 3 | 1.7 | -24.50% | -24.52% | -31.49% | -1.01% |
| 3 | 1.8 | -21.71% | -21.73% | -28.95% | 2.66% |
| 4 | 2.5 | -36.00% | -36.03% | -43.77% | -8.15% |
| 4 | 2.8 | -30.52% | -30.54% | -38.95% | -0.28% |
| 4 | 3 | -26.86% | -26.89% | -35.74% | 4.97% |
| 5 | 4 | -40.22% | -40.24% | -49.15% | -6.09% |
| 5 | 4.5 | -34.24% | -34.27% | -44.06% | 3.30% |
| 6 | 6 | -45.27% | -45.30% | -54.93% | -5.90% |
| 6 | 6.5 | -41.36% | -41.39% | -51.71% | 0.82% |
| 6 | 7 | -37.45% | -37.49% | -48.49% | 7.54% |
| 7 | 9 | -48.87% | -48.91% | -59.24% | -3.78% |
| 7 | 10 | -43.76% | -43.80% | -55.16% | 5.84% |
| 8 | 10 | -63.22% | -63.25% | -71.61% | -24.25% |
| 8 | 12 | -56.54% | -56.57% | -66.45% | -10.48% |
As you can see, there are a lot of very negative expected values in the table above. The few positive ones are for Wong teasers only and only under the most generous odds, which can be hard to find. The liberal pays with the positive expected value for Wong teasers can be found at Coast/Boyd casinos.
I should also state that there were only 1,780 games in my data that had a spread in the Wong teaser range. The 71.57% chance I show of a Wong teaser winning should be considered rather rough, with a standard deviation of 1.70%. Other research leads me to believe the probability of a Wong teaser winning any given leg is closer to 68.9%.
The next table shows the expected value for 6.5-point teasers. As mentioned before, Wong teasers are only good when buying six points, so that column is omitted from the 6.5, 7, and 7.5-point tables.
Expected Value of 6.5-Point Teasers
| Legs | Pays | Side | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 10 to 13 | -21.80% | -21.83% | -26.77% |
| 2 | 5 to 6 | -18.96% | -19.00% | -24.12% |
| 2 | 10 to 11 | -15.61% | -15.65% | -20.98% |
| 3 | 1.2 | -35.35% | -35.39% | -41.42% |
| 3 | 1.5 | -26.53% | -26.58% | -33.43% |
| 3 | 1.6 | -23.59% | -23.64% | -30.76% |
| 4 | 2 | -41.38% | -41.43% | -48.60% |
| 4 | 2.5 | -31.61% | -31.67% | -40.04% |
| 4 | 3 | -21.84% | -21.91% | -31.47% |
| 5 | 3.5 | -41.54% | -41.61% | -50.40% |
| 5 | 4 | -35.05% | -35.12% | -44.89% |
| 5 | 4.5 | -28.55% | -28.63% | -39.38% |
| 6 | 5 | -48.18% | -48.25% | -57.45% |
| 6 | 5.5 | -43.86% | -43.93% | -53.91% |
| 6 | 6 | -39.54% | -39.62% | -50.36% |
| 6 | 7 | -30.91% | -31.00% | -43.27% |
| 7 | 8 | -48.32% | -48.40% | -58.94% |
| 7 | 9 | -42.58% | -42.67% | -54.38% |
| 8 | 9 | -61.82% | -61.89% | -70.65% |
| 8 | 10 | -58.01% | -58.08% | -67.71% |
| 8 | 12 | -50.37% | -50.46% | -61.84% |
The next table shows the expected values for 7-point college football teasers.
Expected Value of 7-Point Teasers
| Legs | Pays | Side | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5 to 7 | -21.39% | -21.70% | -26.53% |
| 2 | 10 to 13 | -18.87% | -19.19% | -24.17% |
| 2 | 5 to 6 | -15.93% | -16.27% | -21.42% |
| 3 | 1 | -37.89% | -38.27% | -43.88% |
| 3 | 1.2 | -31.68% | -32.09% | -38.27% |
| 3 | 1.4 | -25.47% | -25.92% | -32.66% |
| 3 | 1.5 | -22.37% | -22.83% | -29.85% |
| 4 | 1.8 | -41.12% | -41.59% | -48.57% |
| 4 | 2 | -36.92% | -37.42% | -44.89% |
| 4 | 2.5 | -26.40% | -26.99% | -35.71% |
| 5 | 3 | -43.04% | -43.61% | -51.90% |
| 5 | 3.5 | -35.92% | -36.56% | -45.88% |
| 6 | 4 | -51.79% | -52.36% | -60.63% |
| 6 | 5 | -42.14% | -42.84% | -52.76% |
| 6 | 6 | -32.50% | -33.31% | -44.89% |
| 7 | 6.5 | -51.03% | -51.71% | -61.34% |
| 7 | 7 | -47.76% | -48.49% | -58.77% |
| 7 | 8 | -41.23% | -42.05% | -53.61% |
| 8 | 9 | -55.78% | -56.49% | -66.26% |
| 8 | 12 | -42.52% | -43.43% | -56.13% |
The next table shows the expected values for 7.5-point college football teasers.
Expected Value of 7.5-Point Teasers
| Legs | Pays | Side | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5 to 7 | -18.68% | -19.26% | -23.81% |
| 2 | 2 to 3 | -20.94% | -21.50% | -25.93% |
| 3 | 1.2 | -28.13% | -28.89% | -34.81% |
| 3 | 1.5 | -18.33% | -19.19% | -25.93% |
| 4 | 1.8 | -37.00% | -37.89% | -44.69% |
| 4 | 2 | -32.50% | -33.45% | -40.74% |
| 5 | 3 | -38.01% | -39.10% | -47.33% |
| 5 | 3.5 | -30.27% | -31.49% | -40.74% |
| 6 | 4 | -46.64% | -47.76% | -56.10% |
| 6 | 5 | -35.96% | -37.31% | -47.33% |
| 7 | 7 | -41.19% | -42.63% | -53.18% |
| 8 | 10 | -44.31% | -45.87% | -57.08% |
To conclude the topic of college football teasers, stay away from them with a 10-foot pole unless you are crossing both the 3 and 7 point margins of victory with a six-point teaser on every leg as well as getting the liberal Coast/Boyd casino odds.
Data
The data used in this analysis is from 12,231 college football games from 1996 to 2013. The reason I started in 1996 is that is when overtime rules were introduced to eliminate ties. The data was rather dirty, so I had to cut out a lot of games that had ridiculous information, like a point spread of -100, a negative over/under line, the sum of the points scored by quarter was less than the total points in the game, or the game ended in a tie. I'm sure there is still some bad data in there, but I believe the vast majority to be okay.
