Ask the Wizard #142

In my opinion New Years in Vegas is overrated. If you want to welcome the new-year standing shoulder to shoulder with thousands of other people on the Strip then you will succeed. However inside the casinos about the only difference is people wear silly hats. We locals tend to go nowhere near the Strip on December 31. I’m not an expert on the party scene but I suspect you can find that any time.

For the 2 to 1 bets, the largest sample size in which this is a good bet is 14 games. Picking randomly you would have a 39.5264% chance of picking 57% or better, or 8 or more right. You need to have better than a 33.3333% probability for it to be a good bet. 21 is close to fair, but the probability is slightly too small at 33.1812%. The larger the number of picks required the lower the required percentage should be. For example, if 1000 picks were required the greatest number required to have more than a 1/3 chance of winning would be 507. The probability of getting 507 or more right in 1000 picks is 34.05%.

Stanford Wong gives such a basic strategy in his book Basic Blackjack, see table 46. He also said that in 1995 the Bourbon Street casino in Vegas had a promotion in which every 50 minutes the dealer would expose both his cards for five hands. The player advantage during those was about 10%, according to Wong.

The only things that go into the model are scores and home field advantage. Sometimes I seek outside opinions on major injuries, such as Ben Roethlisberger in week 6, or New Orleans playing home games in San Antonio.

The reason the deuces wild game pays more is because a deuce is not normally as valuable as a seven. This is because there are more ways of making straights and straight flushes around a seven. So making deuces wild is a bigger change than making sevens wild. As I show in my section on Anything’s Wild under the same pay table making deuces wild has a return of 96.76%, while sevens wild is only 94.13%.

Tournament strategy is not my strongest area. However if a flush pays 3, which is usually the case, I would avoid the PairPlus unless you need a miracle in the last few hands. Otherwise the higher house edge and variance will probably grind you down. Stick to the ante bet when you need to make a move.

There is no particular place. You have to give the chips to the dealer and tell him to put them on the odds. For example assume you make a come bet and the next roll is a nine. The way I do it is I wait until I get the dealer’s attention, put the bet anywhere he can easily reach it, and say "odds on the nine."

Thanks. You probably sent this before week four, which was a bad week for me. Now, after five weeks my record is 17 and 13, for a 56.7% average, which is good but not great. I think that as a bonus to my newsletter readers I’ll give my thoughts on all the games.

It is hard to improve upon that. I’d give it a 10% probability. However I would concentrate on reeling that fish in as opposed to wondering if it will get bigger.