Ask the Wizard #139

I believe the baby’s mother. My advice is to get out of this mess and take some remedial English classes.

First, I think you should stay out of it. She seems to be looking at this as the better of two bad choices for her and her children, which is the best way to look at it. Without knowing the situation better I can’t make any predictions but I would let them work it out while you go on with your life.

Some of them I like more than others. My model creates what it estimates to be a fair spread in every game and I list the ones that have a disparity of more than a chosen number of points. Personally I bet more on the ones with the larger disparities. However until I have proven my picks are any good I think it would be pretentious to post degrees of confidence.

The probability of A given B is the probability of A and B divided by the probability of B. In this case the probability of rolling a 4 on the first die and then a total of 8 on the other two is (1/6)*(5/36) = 5/216. The probability of rolling any total of 12 with 3 dice is 25/216, as shown in my sic bo section. So the answer is (5/216)/(25/216) = 5/25 = 20%.

The probability that any number would not be hit in a two-year period could be closely approximated as 90*(1/ 1,707,460) = 1 in 18,972. The actual probability would be slightly less than that because I double counted two numbers being missed, which is very negligible. Of course the past down not matter in the lottery and every drawing has the same probability of picking the 53.

Some of them I like more than others. My model creates what it estimates to be a fair spread in every game and I list the ones that have a disparity of more than a chosen number of points. Personally I bet more on the ones with the larger disparities. However until I have proven my picks are any good I think it would be pretentious to post degrees of confidence.

I would just turn around and leave the room when he does that. If he follows you then leave the house until he has cooled off. If that doesn’t work I would throw that fish back in the sea. There is an endless supply of nice guys out there who would treat you like a queen who women usually ignore in favor of guys like yours.

Poker is a hard game to advise on because the behavior of other players is unknown. My model assumes all players stay in until the end of the hand, for the sake of simplicity. While I respect Phil’s opinion Get the Edge at Low-Limit Texas Hold’em by Bill Burton lists hands in three groups, and 7-7 is the lowest of pairs to play only in middle or late position. He says 6-6 should only be played in late position. In other words he doesn’t seem to think highly of 7-7 either.

Assuming no strategy changes for every extra 100 coins in the jackpot the return goes up by 0.044%. So the return with a 4400 coin jackpot would be 100.762% + 4*0.044% = 100.939%.

The expected loss per hand would be $5*0.0062 = 3.1 cents, assuming you play proper basic strategy, and that the dealer hits a soft 17, which is usually the case in $5 games. Assuming you lost exactly that amount per hand it would take 322,580 hands. However the actual number would be a little less because of bankroll volatility and you can’t play after you go broke. To make an educated guess I would say about 300,000 hands. At 60 hands per hour this would be 5000 hours, or two and a half years of full-time play.