Full Outcome PMF Distributions

Every probability the model can compute — visualised. The Joint Score PMF is the engine: a grid of P(Home goals = h, Away goals = a) for every possible regulation-time result. All other markets — 1X2, totals, BTTS, clean sheets — are derived exactly from this single distribution. Probabilities represent 90 minutes + stoppage time only; extra time and penalties are excluded.

PMF model · Regulation time only (90 min + stoppage) · Excludes ET & penalties · P(score) sums to 1.0 including tail mass · Not financial advice