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Last Updated: November 3, 2020

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Analysis and Betting Odds for the 2020 US Presidential Election

Introduction

As we are approximately a week away from the 2020 US Presidential Election now is a great time to analyze as well as review the betting odds for this upcoming election. Although a large portion of Americans have already voted by mail in ballots or early voting due to the safety concerns related to COVID – 19 or other issues, the official election day is Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020.

Breakdown of the Electoral College Voting Process

What these presidential elections end up coming down to is the United States Electoral College voting process. Each of the individual 50 states as well as the District of Columbia has a total number of electoral votes assigned to them totaling 538 electoral votes. It takes 269 electoral votes to tie and 270 to win the presidential election.

The majority of these presidential elections are ultimately decided by winning the important battle ground or swing states that are close in the overall popular vote of those individual states. For the quickly approaching 2020 US Presidential Election the swing states or in another words the states with the closest races right now include Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and others.

The Current Odds for the 2020 US Presidential Election

European Format

SPORTSBOOK                       BIDEN            TRUMP
PINNACLE                              1.50                 2.76
BET ANY SPORTS                 1.53                 2.65
BETFAIR                                 1.50                 2.98

 

American Format

SPORTSBOOK                       BIDEN            TRUMP
PINNACLE                               -200                 176
BET ANY SPORTS                  -190                 165
BETFAIR                                  -200                 198

Joe Biden has a 65 % probability of winning the election after squeezing out the juice and averaging the three sources featured above.

The table below indicates the probability of Donald Trump winning all of the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia. Due to the fact that the majority of the states are not very competitive Trump was either given a 0 % chance of winning or a 100 % chance of winning. The remaining states in which the overall popular vote will be close have been forecasted with the odds provided by Pinnacle Sports after squeezing out the juice.

Probability Table

 
State                Electoral Votes           Prob Trump    Expected Trump Votes
Alabama                     9                      100.0 %           9.00
Alaska                         3                      100.0 %           3.00
Arizona                       11                    43.6 %             4.80
Arkansas                     6                      100.0 %           6.00
California                    55                    0.0 %               0.00
Colorado                     9                      0.0 %               0.00
Connecticut                 7                      0.0 %               0.00
Delaware                     3                      0.0 %               0.00
District of Columbia     3                      0.0 %               0.00
Florida                         29                    55.8 %             16.19
Georgia                       16                    60.2 %             9.64
Hawaii                         4                      0.0 %               0.00
Idaho                           4                      100.0 %           4.00
Illinois                         20                    0.0 %               0.00
Indiana                       11                    100.0 %           11.00
Iowa                            6                      61.0 %             3.66
Kansas                        6                      100.0 %           6.00
Kentucky                     8                      100.0 %           8.00
Louisiana                    8                      100.0 %           8.00
Maine (1)                     1                      50.0 %             0.50
Maine (3)                     3                      0.0 %               0.00
Maryland                    1 0                    0.0 %               0.00
Massachusetts            11                    0.0 %               0.00
Michigan                     16                    28.1 %             4.50
Minnesota                   10                    27.2 %             2.72
Mississippi                  6                      100.0 %           6.00
Missouri                     10                    100.0 %           10.00
Montana                      3                      100.0 %           3.00
Nebraska (1)               1                      50.0 %             0.50
Nebraska (4)               4                      100.0 %           4.00
Nevada                        6                      30.5 %             1.83
New Hampshire           4                      0.0 %               0.00
New Jersey                  14                    0.0 %               0.00
New Mexico                 5                      0.0 %               0.00
New York                      29                    0.0 %               0.00
North Carolina             15                    47.7 %             7.16
North Dakota               3                      100.0 %           3.00
Ohio                             18                    68.2 %             12.27
Oklahoma                    7                      100.0 %           7.00
Oregon                           7                      0.0 %               0.00
Pennsylvania              20                    35.2 %             7.04
Rhode Island               4                      0.0 %               0.00
South Carolina            9                      100.0 %           9.00
South Dakota              3                      100.0 %           3.00
Tennessee                   11                    100.0 %           11.00
Texas                          38                    74.2 %             28.20
Utah                            6                      100.0 %           6.00
Vermont                      3                      0.0 %               0.00
Virginia                       13                    0.0 %               0.00
Washington                12                    0.0 %               0.00
West Virginia              5                      100.0 %           5.00
Wisconsin                   10                    31.1 %             3.11
Wyoming                    3                      100.0 %           3.00
Total                           538                                         227.12

Bettors Beware

As indicated in the table above Trump is predicted to win approximately 227 electoral votes and is expected to lose the 2020 US Presidential Election to Biden, but let’s not forget what happened back in 2016 Presidential Election in the United States of America. According to FiveThirtyEight Hillary Clinton was forecasted to collect 302.2 electoral votes while President Trump was projected to obtain 235 electoral votes prior to the election. Surprising to many Americans Trump ended up receiving 304 electoral votes while Clinton only managed to secure 227 electoral votes.

So, for the people gambling on this election I would prepare for the race to the White House to be much closer than what the preliminary indicators are suggesting. Although Biden has a much higher chance of winning the election to become the next president of the United States of America, I believe there is more value in wagering on Trump at the moment.

Importance of Voting

If you are an American who is currently registered to vote I highly encourage you to get out and vote on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 if you have not done so already. It is extremely important to get your voice heard now more than even, and these elections impact everyone in this great nation.


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