Super Bowl Experiment
Before I begin, I would like to remind you of something I said in the Feb. 1 newsletter.
“The going over/under line is 47.5. I like that. The difference between the actual line and my line is 4.7 points. That is enough for me to make a solid bet on the under. So, that is an official Wizard pick – under 47.5 points.“
You’re welcome!
I used to put a great deal of time and money into Super Bowl proposition bets. It seemed that after every year, after careful analysis of at least 100 common proposition bets and betting into them, I found that the vast majority were on events NOT to happen. One theory I developed that blindly betting any bet with the word “no” or “under” in the description would about break even. With a little shopping around, perhaps a profit could be made.
I put that theory to the test for the first time this Super Bowl. I went to the Rampart casino, which follows South Point lines, and bet on everything with the word “no” or “under.” $20 a bet. This came to 175 bets, which at $20 each was $3,500 bet on this experiment.
As I watched the close game unfold, I started to fear the game going into overtime after KC scored a touchdown in the 3rd quarter, putting the score at SF 10, KC 13. I felt a sense of relief when SF made the next score, a TD in the fourth quarter. Assuming they made the extra point, that would have made the score SF 17, KC 13. Late in the game, it would have been unlikely for a four-point margin to go into overtime. However, the worst thing imaginable happened, the absolute worst. The extra point attempt was missed. That put that game back at a 3-point margin: SF 16, KC 13. Had SF made that point, I think they would have won the game and I would done well with my bets. After the missed extra point attempt, KC score two field goals and SF one, putting the game into the dreaded overtime.
Why does this matter? Again, 100% of my bets were on things not to happen. Many were on total rushing or passing yards. More plays just increased those totals. Many were on counts of particular events, like field goals, interceptions, sacks, fumbles, particular players scoring touchdowns. If I counted correctly, there were 132 plays in the first four quarters. Overtime added 26 more. That is an extra 20% more plays.
Enough with the excuses. Here is a listing of all 175 bets made and how they did. I apologize for the many typos and abbreviations.
| Number | Description | Odds | W/L | Win ($) |
| 3030 | Total points under 35.5 | 475 | L | -20.00 |
| 3032 | Total points under 40.5 | 240 | L | -20.00 |
| 3034 | Total points under 56.5 | -320 | W | 6.25 |
| 3036 | Total points under 63.5 | -550 | W | 3.65 |
| 3038 | Total points by 49'ers in game un 24.5 | -120 | W | 16.65 |
| 3040 | Total points by Chiefs un 24 | -120 | L | -20.00 |
| 3042 | Total points in first half by 49'ers un 11.5 | 105 | W | 21.00 |
| 3044 | Total points by Chiefs in first half un 10.5 | -105 | W | 19.05 |
| 3048 | Safety -- NO | -1200 | W | 1.65 |
| 3050 | Overtime -- No | -1200 | L | -20.00 |
| 3052 | Successful two point converion -- NO | -320 | W | 6.25 |
| 3066 | Three unanswered scores -- NO | 145 | L | -20.00 |
| 3068 | Points scored in last two minutes of first half -- NO | 280 | L | -20.00 |
| 3072 | Shortest TD of game under 1.5 | -145 | L | -20.00 |
| 3074 | Longest TD of game under 39.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3084 | Game decided by 3 points? -- NO | -475 | L | -20.00 |
| 3086 | Will team to score first win -- NO | 150 | W | 30.00 |
| 3090 | Will roughing the passer be called in game? -- NO | -240 | W | 8.35 |
| 3092 | Defensive of special teams TD -- NO | -300 | W | 6.65 |
| 3100 | Will last play of game be QB rush? -- NO | 155 | W | 31.00 |
| 3102 | Will both teams have lead in the first half -- NO | -155 | W | 12.90 |
| 3106 | Team to score last wins -- NO | 200 | L | -20.00 |
| 3112 | Total interceptions under 1.5 | -125 | W | 16.00 |
| 3114 | Total fumbles lost in game un 1.5 | -240 | L | -20.00 |
| 3116 | Scoreless quarter -- No | -360 | L | -20.00 |
| 3124 | Missed extra point in game -- NO | -400 | L | -20.00 |
| 3128 | Total players to have pass completion un 2.5 | -270 | L | -20.00 |
| 3130 | Total punts un 7.5 | -155 | L | -20.00 |
| 3132 | Largest lead under 14.5 points | -150 | W | 13.35 |
| 3134 | Total net yards by both teams un 715.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3136 | Total combined TD's in game un 5.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3138 | Distance of first TD scored un 7.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3140 | Distance of last TD scored un 7.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3144 | Score in first 5:30 of game -- No | -140 | W | 14.30 |
| 3146 | Game tied after 0-0 -- NO | -105 | L | -20.00 |
| 3148 | Longest FG under 47.5 | -105 | L | -20.00 |
| 3150 | Shortest FG under 27.5 yards | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3152 | Both teams make 33+ yard FG -- NO | 120 | L | -20.00 |
| 3154 | Under 3.5 field goals | -140 | L | -20.00 |
| 3158 | Distance of first FG made under 36.5 | 100 | L | -20.00 |
| 3160 | Under 118.5 total FG yards | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3162 | Distance of last FG made under 37.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3164 | FG is first quarter -- No | 100 | W | 20.00 |
| 3166 | FG by either team in second quarter -- NO | 240 | L | -20.00 |
| 3168 | FG by either team in third quarter -- NO | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3170 | FG by either team in fourth quarter -- NO | 140 | L | -20.00 |
| 3198 | SF TD in first quarter -- NO | -120 | W | 16.65 |
| 3200 | SF TD in second quarter -- NO | 145 | L | -20.00 |
| 3202 | SF TD in third quarter -- NO | -120 | W | 16.65 |
| 3204 | SF TD in fourth quarter -- NO | 145 | L | -20.00 |
| 3206 | KC TD in first quarter -- NO | -140 | W | 14.30 |
| 3208 | KC TD in second quarter -- NO | 130 | W | 26.00 |
| 3210 | KC TD in third quarter -- NO | -120 | L | -20.00 |
| 3212 | KC TD in fourth quarter -- NO | 130 | W | 26.00 |
| 3214 | SF scores in every quarter -- NO | -230 | W | 8.70 |
| 3216 | KC scores in every quarter -- NO | -280 | W | 7.15 |
| 3218 | SF score a rushing TD -- NO | 245 | W | 49.00 |
| 3220 | Will KC score a rushing TD in game -- NO | 110 | W | 22.00 |
| 3222 | Will 49'ers score a rushing TD in first half -- NO | 115 | W | 23.00 |
| 3224 | KC score rushing TD in first half -- NO | -220 | W | 9.10 |
| 3226 | Total first downs by SF un 21.5 | -115 | L | -20.00 |
| 3228 | Total first downs by KC un 21 | -120 | L | -20.00 |
| 3230 | Total TD's by SF un 2.5 | 120 | W | 24.00 |
| 3232 | Total TD's by KC un 2.5 | 100 | W | 20.00 |
| 3234 | Net yards in game by SF un 366.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3236 | Net yards in game by KC un 361.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3238 | Rushing yards by SF un 129.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3240 | Rushing yards by KC un 106.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3242 | Total sacks by SF defense un 2.5 | -220 | L | -20.00 |
| 3244 | Total sacks by KC defense un 2.5 | -130 | W | 15.40 |
| 3246 | Num of 49'ers to have a rushing attempt under 4 | 110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3248 | Number of different Chiefs to have a rushing attempt un 4 | -115 | P | 0.00 |
| 3250 | Will 49'ers convert a 4th down (excludes penalties) -- NO | -105 | L | -20.00 |
| 3252 | Will KC convert a fourth down (excludes penalties) -- NO | 125 | L | -20.00 |
| 3254 | Total 49'ers to have a reception under 6 | 100 | L | -20.00 |
| 3256 | Total 49'ers to have a reception under 7.5 | 100 | L | -20.00 |
| 3262 | Will Purdy throw an interception -- NO | 120 | W | 24.00 |
| 3264 | Will Mahomes throw an interception -- NO | -115 | L | -20.00 |
| 3266 | Total completions by Purdy un 20.5 | 100 | L | -20.00 |
| 3268 | Total completions by Mahomes un 25.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3270 | Total passing yards by Purdy un 244.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3272 | Gross passing yards by Mahomes un 263.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3274 | Total pass attempts by Purdy un 29.5 | -105 | L | -20.00 |
| 3276 | Total pass attempts by Mahomes un 36.5 | 100 | L | -20.00 |
| 3278 | Longest completion by Purdy un 36.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3280 | Longest completion by Mahomes un 36.5 | -105 | L | -20.00 |
| 3282 | Total TD passes by Purdy un 1.5 | 100 | W | 20.00 |
| 3284 | Total TD passes by Mahomes un 1.5 | 130 | L | -20.00 |
| 3290 | Will Purdy (SF) throw a 1st qtr TD pass -- NO | -270 | W | 7.40 |
| 3292 | Will Purdy (SF) throw a 2nd qtr TD pass -- NO | -150 | W | 13.35 |
| 3294 | Will Purdy (SF) throw a 3rd qtr TD pass -- NO | -240 | W | 8.35 |
| 3296 | Will Purdy (SF) throw a 3rd qtr TD pass -- NO | -165 | L | -20.00 |
| 3298 | Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 1st qtr TD pass -- NO | -240 | W | 8.35 |
| 3300 | Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 2nd qtr TD pass -- NO | -130 | W | 15.40 |
| 3302 | Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 3rd qtr TD pass -- NO | -190 | L | -20.00 |
| 3304 | Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 4th qtr TD pass -- NO | -135 | W | 14.80 |
| 3306 | Distance of first TD pass by Purdy un 9.5 | 130 | L | -20.00 |
| 3308 | Distance of first TD pass by P. Mahomes un 9.5 | -125 | L | -20.00 |
| 3310 | Total rushing yards by B. Purdy (SF) un 11.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3312 | Total rushing yards by P. Mahommes (KC) un 25.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3314 | First rushing attempt by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 3.5 | 110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3316 | Longest rush by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 18.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3318 | Total rushing attempts by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 19.5 | -115 | L | -20.00 |
| 3320 | Total rushing yards by C McCaffrey (SF) un 94.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3322 | Total receiving yards by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 35.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3324 | Total receptions by C McCaffrey (SF) un 4.5 | 110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3326 | Will C. McCaffrey (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | 200 | L | -20.00 |
| 3328 | First rushing attempt by E. Mitchell (SF) un 2.5 | -105 | L | -20.00 |
| 3330 | Longest rush by E. Mitchell (SF) un 3.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3332 | Total rushing attempts by E. Mitchell (SF) un 1.5 | -115 | L | -20.00 |
| 3334 | Total rushing yards by E. Mitchell (SF) un 4.5 | -120 | L | -20.00 |
| 3338 | Will E. Mitchell (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -900 | W | 2.20 |
| 3340 | First rushing attempt by I. Pachero (KC) un 3.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3342 | Longest rush by I. Pacheco (KC) un 15.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3344 | Total rushing attempts by I. Pacheco (KC) un 15.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3346 | Total rushing yards by I. Pacheco (KC) un 69.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3348 | Total receptions by I Pacheco (KC) un 2.5 | 120 | L | -20.00 |
| 3350 | Total receiving yards by I. Pacheco (KC) un 16.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3352 | Will I. Pacheco (KC) score a TD in game -- NO | -105 | W | 19.05 |
| 3354 | First rushing attempt by C. Edwards-Helaire un 13.5 | -135 | W | 14.80 |
| 3356 | Total receptions by C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) un 1.5 | -240 | W | 8.35 |
| 3358 | Total receiving yards by C. Edwards-Helarie un 4.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3360 | Total rushing yards by C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) un 5.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3362 | Will C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) score a TD in game -- NO | -800 | W | 2.50 |
| 3402 | First reception by G. Kittle (SF) un 10.5 | -120 | W | 16.65 |
| 3404 | Total receptions by G. Kittle (SF) un 3.5 | 135 | W | 27.00 |
| 3406 | Total receiving yards by G. Kittle (SF) un 51.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3408 | Longest reception by G. Kittle (SF) un 21.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3410 | Will G. Kittle (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -190 | W | 10.55 |
| 3412 | First reception by D. Samuel (SF) un 9.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3414 | Total receptions by D. Samuel (SF) un 4.5 | 125 | W | 25.00 |
| 3416 | Total receiving yards by D. Samuel (SF) un 61.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3418 | Longest reception by D. Samuel (SF) un 21.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3420 | Will D. Samuel (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -150 | W | 13.35 |
| 3422 | First reception by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 12.5 | -105 | L | -20.00 |
| 3424 | Total receptions by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 4.5 | -150 | W | 13.35 |
| 3426 | Total receiving yards by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 61.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3428 | Longest reception by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 23.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3430 | Will B. Aiyuk (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -185 | W | 10.80 |
| 3444 | Total receptions by J. Jennings (SF) un 1.5 | -145 | L | -20.00 |
| 3446 | Total receiving yards by J. Jennings (SF) un 14.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3448 | Longest reception by J. Jennings (SF) un 12.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3450 | Will J. Jennings (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -750 | L | -20.00 |
| 3452 | First reception by T. Kelce (KC) un 8.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3454 | Total receptions by T. Kelce (KC) un 7.5 | -160 | L | -20.00 |
| 3456 | Total receiving yards by T. Kelce (KC) un 71.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3458 | Longest reception by T. Kelce (KC) un 21.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3460 | Will T. Kelce score a TD in game -- NO | 105 | W | 21.00 |
| 3462 | First reception by R. Rice (KC) un 8.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3464 | Total receptions by R. Rice (KC) un 6.5 | -115 | W | 17.40 |
| 3466 | Total receiving yards by R. Rice (KC) un 68.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3468 | Longest reception by R. Rice (KC) un 20.5 | -110 | W | 18.20 |
| 3470 | Will R. Rice (KC) score a TD -- NO | -165 | W | 12.10 |
| 3472 | Total receiving yards by J. Watson (KC) un 16.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3474 | Will J. Watson (KC) score a TD -- NO | -700 | W | 2.85 |
| 3476 | Total receiving yards by N. Gray (KC) un 13.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3478 | Will N. Gray (KC) score a TD -- NO | -1000 | W | 2.00 |
| 3502 | FG's by J. Moody (SF) un 1.5 | -110 | L | -20.00 |
| 3504 | Total kicking points by J. Moody (SF) un 7.5 | -135 | L | -20.00 |
| 3506 | Total FG's by Butker (KC) un 1.5 | 105 | L | -20.00 |
| 3508 | Total kicking points by H Butker (KC) un 7.5 | -120 | L | -20.00 |
| 3510 | Total punts by M. Wishnowsky (SF) un 3.5 | -120 | L | -20.00 |
| 3512 | Total punts by T. Townsend (KC) un 3.5 | 100 | L | -20.00 |
| 3514 | Longest punt by Wishnowsky (SF) under 57.5 | -115 | W | 17.40 |
| 3516 | Longest punt by T. Townsend (KC) under 56.5 | 100 | L | -20.00 |
| 3522 | Total solo & assisted tackels by D. Greenlaw (SF) un 7.5 | 100 | W | 20.00 |
| 3522 | Total solo & assisted tackels by D. Greenlaw (SF) un 7.5 | 100 | W | 20.00 |
| 3524 | Total solo & assisted tackels by N. Bolton (KC) un 8.5 | 105 | L | -20.00 |
| 3528 | Total solo & assisted tackels by F. Warner (SF) un 8.5 | -140 | L | -20.00 |
| 3530 | Total solo & assisted tackets by J. Reid (KC) un 5.5 | 125 | L | -20.00 |
| 3532 | Total tackles (solo + assisted) by J. Brown (SF) un 5.5 | 115 | L | -20.00 |
| 3534 | Total solo & assisted tackets by t. McDuffie(KC) un 4.5 | -115 | W | 17.40 |
| 3536 | Will T. McDuffie (KC) have an interception -- NO | -1000 | W | 2.00 |
| 3538 | Will C. Ward (SF) have an intercetion in game? -- NO | -800 | W | 2.50 |
| 3540 | Will M. Edwards have an interception in game? -- NO | -800 | W | 2.50 |
| 3542 | Will L. Sneed have an intercetion in game? -- NO | -750 | W | 2.65 |
| Total | -423.15 |
The lower right cell shows a loss of $423.15. That equates to 12.1% of money bet. To be honest, that wasn’t as bad as I was expecting. Next year I plan to repeat the experiment.
All the graded South Point/Rampart bets can be found at Wizard of Odds
Next week I plan to publish part 2 of the infamous poker dispute between Garrett Adelstein and Robbi Jade Lew.