Face Up Pai Gow Poker Progressive Jackpot at $3.8 Million.
I was planning to write about the Octoberfest this week, but I’m going to postpone that topic with news of an opportunity in Vegas with a 20.2% player advantage!
Most, if not all, of the Caesars properties in Las Vegas have a linked progressive in Face Up Pai Gow Poker. The mega jackpot, as of Tuesday, was over $3.8 million. The following image shows the full pay table.
| EVENT | PAYS | COMBINATIONS | PROBABILITY | RETURN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEVEN-CARD STRAIGHT FLUSH | 3,832,836 | 228 | 0.000001 | 5.669322 |
| FIVE ACES | 155,924 | 1,128 | 0.000007 | 1.141036 |
| ROYAL FLUSH | 3,595 | 26,092 | 0.000169 | 0.608458 |
| STRAIGHT FLUSH | 500 | 184,644 | 0.001198 | 0.598937 |
| FOUR OF A KIND | 375 | 307,472 | 0.001995 | 0.748019 |
| FULL HOUSE | 20 | 4,188,528 | 0.027173 | 0.543460 |
| LOSER | 0 | 149,434,988 | 0.969456 | 0.000000 |
| TOTAL | 154,143,080 | 1.000000 | 9.309231 |
The base game requires a minimum bet, ranging from $15 to $100, depending on the casino and table. The house edge in Face Up Pai Gow Poker is 1.81%. For example, the expected loss on the base game at a $15 wager is $15 * 1.81% = $0.27. It is a great value to get $4.31 on the side bet at a cost of $0.27 on base game.
Overall, here is the expected win per hand according to the bet amount in the base game:
| BASE BET | VALUE PER HAND |
|---|---|
| $ 15 | $ 4.04 |
| $ 25 | $ 3.86 |
| $ 50 | $ 3.41 |
| $ 100 | $ 2.50 |
If we assume 30 hands per hour and a $15 base game bet, that is an expected win of $121 per hour. The 20.12% player advantage I mentioned at the beginning is based on the ratio of the expected win of $4.04 to the combined total bet of $20.
However, none of that considers the large tax burden on such a jackpot nor the volatility. In fact, I find this play is only a good bet, according to the Kelly Criterion for bankroll growth, with a bankroll of about $500,000 at a $15 base game bet and $600,000 at $25.
I investigated this about 11AM on Tuesday. While the tables were crowded, I still found spots available at all bet levels, even at $15. I can confirm this is available at Caesars, the Cromwell, the Linq, Flamingo and Harrah’s. The minimums at Caesars were $50 and $100. At all other properties they were $15 and $25. I did not check any property south of Flamingo Blvd nor the Rio.
I love to share a good bet on a silver platter whenever I can. This is one of those rare opportunities when I can. If you hit the Mega jackpot, I am not too proud to accept tips.
Until next week, may the odds be ever in your favor.