Handicapping Super Bowl 60

This week we continue a long-standing tradition of handicapping the Super Bowl. However, before we get to that, I present the weekly logic puzzle.

You are with a unicorn and Pegasus. The unicorn lies on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesday and otherwise tells the truth. Pegasus lies on Thursdays, Fridays and Saturday and otherwise tells the truth.

Not knowing what day it is, you hear the following statements.

Unicorn, "Yesterday was one of my lying days."

Pegasus, "Yesterday was one of my lying days too."

What day is it?

Handicapping Super Bowl 60

It has been a Wizard of Odds newsletter tradition since Super Bowl 51 to analyze the point spread and over/under and give my bet suggestions. I believe my record is 8 wins and 2 losses.

During the 2025 regular season the Seattle Seahawks scored an average of 28.40 points per game and gave up 17.18. Meanwhile, the New England patriots scored an average of 28.82 and gave up 18.82.

My usual method calculates expected points scored as the average of the average points scored per game and points given up by the other team. Using this method would suggest the following total points per team:

Seattle: 23.62

New England: 23.00

However, Seattle faced better teams than New England. The “scoring margin” is a statistic the measures the average points a team wins by per game. A negative scoring margin indicates a net point losing team. On average, Seattle played teams with a scoring margin of -0.73 and New England of -4.09. That is a difference of 3.36 points. If we give half that margin to Seattle and subtract half from New England we get the following adjusted estimated points scored:

Seattle: 25.30

New England: 21.32

Total: 46.62

At the time of this writing, the going lines are New England +4.5 and total of 46.5.

I show Seattle will win by 3.98 with a total of 46.62. These are pretty close to the going lines. Thus, no official picks from me this year. If you held a gun to my head and told me to make a bet, I’d go with Patriots +4.5. However, that isn’t an official pick. Not enough to beat the vig.

In conclusion, I apologize for not having a pick this year. The market seems about right.

Logic Puzzle Answer

It is Thursday.

Logic Puzzle Solution

Let's look at the unicorn's statement first. It is consistent with the truthfulness of the unicorn only on Monday and Thursday.

Let's look at Pegasus' statement second. It is consistent with the truthfulness of the unicorn only on Thursday and Sunday.

The only day both creatures can make this statement is Thursday.