Handicapping Super Bowl 58

It seems to be an annual tradition that I make a Super Bowl prediction in the newsletter following theconference championship games.

Let me begin with the usual disclaimer that I don’t claim to be a handicapper and that my methodology is very simple. Using my method usually results in closely matching the point spread and over/under during the regular season. However, for the Super Bowl I often find disparities. I explain my method and historical results in my February 3, 2023 newsletter on Super Bowl 57.

Using my simple handicapping method previously mentioned, I predict that Kansas City will score 19.7 points and the 49’ers will score 23.1. That equals to the 49’ers winning by 3.4 points with total points scored of 42.8.

As I write this, on Jan. 30, most sportsbooks have the 49’ers as 1.5-point favorite. Given that I make the 49’ers a 3.4-point favorite, it would seem that SF -1.5 is a good bet. However, the difference between my line and the actual line is only 1.9 points. To be conservative, that is probably not enough to beat the 10% juice. So, I’m not going to make a pick against the spread if I have to lay -110. Personally, I will look for friends wanting to bet on Kansas City and make a straight even money bet at SF -1.5 if I can. Plus, I’m a California boy, and a little friendly wager on SF will help make the game more fun to watch.

The going over/under line is 47.5. I like that. The difference between the actual line and my line is 4.7 points. That is enough for me to make a solid bet on the under. So, that is an official Wizard pick – under 47.5 points. Make sure you get it at 47.5. Some books have the line at 47 even. 47 points is a common sum of points scored in the NFL, so it’s important to get 47.5 if betting the under.

I would like to repeat my disclaimer that I’m not a handicapper so take my advice with a big tablespoon of salt. If you do follow my advice, please do so in moderation.