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College Football Money Lines
Introduction
I rarely find what I believe to be a good bet on an underdog on the money line. The following chart shows the probability of winning by point spread, based on historical data (from 1983 to 2005).
The following table shows the actual data. The estimated probability of winning is based on smoothing out the ups and downs. The fair money line is based on the estimated probability of winning. This table does not factor in "key numbers" in the NFL. In other words, some margin of victories are much more likely than others, especially 3 and 7. It is a much bigger handicap to be given 3.5 points compared to 2.5, thus the 3.5-point underdog is going to have a significantly lower chance of winning compared to a 2.5-point underdog. I'll leave adjustment to the reader (sorry).
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football NFL
Today
Detroit Lions
Dallas Cowboys
Money Line
-185
735
⇗540.00
Spread
-110
(-3.5)
-110
(3.5)
Featured Insight
The Detroit Lions face the Dallas Cowboys in an exciting matchup. The Cowboys are favorites with their strong offense, but the Lions' improving defense could pose a challenge. Watch for key players like Dak Prescott and Jared Goff.
This Week
Atlanta Falcons
Seattle Seahawks
Money Line
278
-330
⇗10.00
Spread
100
(6.5)
-104
(-7)
Featured Insight
The Atlanta Falcons face the Seattle Seahawks in a thrilling NFL matchup. Both teams showcase strong offenses, but the Seahawks have the edge in defensive capabilities. Watch for the Falcons' road performance, as they've struggled away from home.
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Money Line
-250
⇗10.00
218
Spread
-105
(-5.5)
-110
(5.5)
Featured Insight
The Ravens and Steelers rivalry is intense. Ravens, led by Lamar Jackson, have a dynamic offense, while the Steelers, with their strong defense, play hard at home. Key players to watch are Ravens' tight end Mark Andrews and Steelers' wide receiver Diontae Johnson.
Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears
Money Line
-300
255
Spread
-115
(-6.5)
-104
(6.5)
Featured Insight
The NFL match between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears is a classic rivalry. The Packers have a strong offense led by their quarterback, while the Bears rely on a formidable defense.
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans
Money Line
-200
178
Spread
-105
(-4)
-110
(4)
Featured Insight
The Cleveland Browns face off against the Tennessee Titans in what promises to be an exciting matchup. The Browns’ key to victory lies in their strong defense, while the Titans will rely on their powerful rushing attack.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
Money Line
110
-128
Spread
100
(1)
-110
(-2)
Featured Insight
The Jacksonville Jaguars face the Indianapolis Colts in an exciting matchup. The Jaguars, with a strong offense, rely on their quarterback to lead against a Colts defense that has shown vulnerabilities.
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
Money Line
134
-148
Spread
-120
(3)
100
(-3)
Featured Insight
The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins clash in a highly anticipated NFL game. The Dolphins have shown strong offensive capabilities, led by a skilled quarterback. Conversely, the Jets' defense has been resilient but struggles against deep passes.
Minnesota Vikings
Washington Commanders
Money Line
-125
107
Spread
-110
(-2)
100
(1)
Featured Insight
In the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Washington Commanders, consider the Vikings' strong offense led by star players against the Commanders' improving defense. The Vikings have been consistent in scoring, making them slight favorites.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
Money Line
-435
350
Spread
-105
(-9)
-110
(8.5)
Featured Insight
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the New Orleans Saints in a classic NFC South matchup. Buccaneers have a strong passing game led by their QB, while the Saints rely on their defense.
Las Vegas Raiders
Denver Broncos
Money Line
320
-400
Spread
-110
(7.5)
100
(-7.5)
Featured Insight
In the matchup between the Raiders and Broncos, look out for the Raiders' strong offensive plays against the Broncos' defense, which has been inconsistent.
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams
Money Line
345
-410
Spread
-110
(8.5)
⇗5.00
105
(-9)
Featured Insight
The Arizona Cardinals face a tough challenge against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams' strong defense and strategic offense make them a formidable opponent. Watch for key players like Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp who have been performing consistently well.
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Money Line
-265
225
Spread
-110
(-5.5)
-108
(5.5)
Featured Insight
The Bills exhibit a strong offense, led by quarterback Josh Allen, but face a tough Bengals defense. The Bengals, with QB Joe Burrow, are gaining momentum. Consider the over on total points as both teams have high-scoring capable offenses.
Next Week
Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans
Money Line
-180
160
Spread
100
(-3.5)
105
(3)
Featured Insight
The Kansas City Chiefs are favorites against the Houston Texans due to their strong offensive lineup led by Patrick Mahomes. The Texans’ defense will be tested, and their offense must be more efficient to compete.
Los Angeles Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles
Money Line
126
-145
Spread
-105
(2.5)
-110
(-2.5)
Featured Insight
The Chargers vs. Eagles matchup features dynamic offenses led by quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. The Chargers' strong passing game contrasts with the Eagles' robust ground attack.
Money Line
-275
204
Spread
-110
(-6)
-110
(6)
Featured Insight
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Atlanta Falcons in a crucial matchup. The Buccaneers boast a strong offense led by a capable quarterback, while the Falcons are known for their resilience.
Money Line
-360
246
Spread
-105
(-7)
-110
(7)
Featured Insight
The Houston Texans face the Arizona Cardinals in a game where both teams aim to turn their seasons around. The Texans’ offense, led by a rejuvenated running game, could exploit the Cardinals’ defense, which has struggled against the run.
Money Line
119
-159
Spread
-105
(2.5)
-115
(-2.5)
Featured Insight
The Cincinnati Bengals face the Baltimore Ravens in what promises to be a high-stakes matchup. The Bengals have a strong offense led by their quarterback, while the Ravens' defense is formidable. Key players for Cincinnati are Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase.
New England Patriots
Money Line
-124
-106
Spread
-110
(-0.5)
-110
(0.5)
Featured Insight
The New England Patriots face the Buffalo Bills in a crucial matchup. The Patriots have struggled offensively and will need to improve to compete with the efficient Bills. Buffalo, led by quarterback Josh Allen, has a strong offense and solid defense.
Money Line
-441
295
Spread
-110
(-7.5)
-110
(7.5)
Featured Insight
The Chicago Bears face the Cleveland Browns with both teams eager to secure a victory. The Browns boast a robust defensive line, ready to challenge the Bears' offense. Chicago's offensive strength and tactical plays may give them an edge.
Money Line
-526
330
Spread
-110
(-9.5)
-110
(9.5)
Featured Insight
In the matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, consider the Jaguars' strong offense against the Jets' inconsistent defense. The Jaguars have been solid in recent games, while the Jets' offense struggles against well-ranked defenses.
Money Line
-232
170
Spread
-110
(-4.5)
-110
(4.5)
Featured Insight
Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers games are typically high-scoring. The Chiefs have a strong offense with Mahomes, but their defense can be inconsistent. The Chargers, with Herbert, have shown resilience. Recent matchups indicate close games.
Money Line
-1099
560
Spread
-110
(-12.5)
-110
(12.5)
Featured Insight
The Philadelphia Eagles have a strong offensive lineup this season, which might favor them against the Las Vegas Raiders. However, the Raiders' defense has been impressive, posing a challenge for the Eagles.
New York Giants
Money Line
-109
-122
Spread
-110
(2.5)
-110
(-2.5)
Featured Insight
The New York Giants take on the Washington Commanders in a potentially thrilling NFL matchup. The Giants' offense has shown resilience, but turnovers might be a concern.
Carolina Panthers
Money Line
116
-154
Spread
100
(2.5)
-115
(-2.5)
Featured Insight
Analyze key player performances for winning bets. The Saints' defense is formidable, causing trouble for opposing quarterbacks. Consider betting on fewer passing yards for Panthers' QB.
Money Line
-121
-109
Spread
-110
(1.5)
-110
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Denver Broncos face off against the Green Bay Packers. Denver's defense has struggled this season, giving the advantage to Green Bay's offense, which is known for its dynamic play.
Money Line
-204
151
Spread
-110
(-3.5)
-110
(3.5)
Featured Insight
The Seattle Seahawks face the Indianapolis Colts in an intriguing matchup. The Seahawks' strong passing game, led by their star quarterback, could exploit the Colts' secondary. Conversely, the Colts' ground game may challenge the Seahawks' defense.
San Francisco 49ers
Money Line
-1000
520
Spread
-110
(-12.5)
-110
(12.5)
Featured Insight
The San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans both showcase strong rosters with experienced quarterbacks. The 49ers leverage their strong defense, while the Titans rely heavily on their powerful running game led by Derrick Henry.
Next Month
Money Line
-184
137
Spread
-105
(-3.5)
-110
(3.5)
Featured Insight
The Steelers' defense is key, aiming to stifle Miami's explosive offense led by Tua Tagovailoa. Miami's strong home record adds advantage, but Pittsburgh's resilience and strategic plays could counter.
American Football NFL Super Bowl Winner
Later
Competitor/Team
Los Angeles Rams
Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
Detroit Lions
San Francisco 49ers
Houston Texans
Los Angeles Chargers
Chicago Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars
Dallas Cowboys
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Carolina Panthers
Miami Dolphins
Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons
Las Vegas Raiders
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets
New York Giants
Tennessee Titans
Washington Commanders
Cleveland Browns
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To find the fair money line on a favorite, just multiply by -1. For example, a 7-point underdog shows an estimated probability of winning of 30.2%, which corresponds to a fair money line of +231. Thus, a 7-point favorite would have a 69.8% chance of winning, for a fair money line of -231.
Probability of Winning in the NFL by Point Spread
| Spread | Wins | Loses | Actual Probability | Estimated Probability | Fair Money Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 472 | 944 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100 |
| 1.5 | 132 | 284 | 46.5% | 45.5% | 120 |
| 2 | 141 | 280 | 50.4% | 44.1% | 127 |
| 2.5 | 164 | 376 | 43.6% | 42.6% | 135 |
| 3 | 246 | 540 | 45.6% | 41.1% | 143 |
| 3.5 | 134 | 358 | 37.4% | 39.7% | 152 |
| 4 | 135 | 337 | 40.1% | 38.3% | 161 |
| 4.5 | 93 | 259 | 35.9% | 36.9% | 171 |
| 5 | 74 | 213 | 34.7% | 35.5% | 182 |
| 5.5 | 101 | 294 | 34.4% | 34.1% | 193 |
| 6 | 109 | 343 | 31.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
| 6.5 | 121 | 383 | 31.6% | 31.5% | 217 |
| 7 | 146 | 493 | 29.6% | 30.2% | 231 |
| 7.5 | 84 | 332 | 25.3% | 29.0% | 245 |
| 8 | 73 | 243 | 30.0% | 27.8% | 260 |
| 8.5 | 67 | 227 | 29.5% | 26.6% | 276 |
| 9 | 62 | 225 | 27.6% | 25.5% | 293 |
| 9.5 | 64 | 250 | 25.6% | 24.3% | 311 |
| 10 | 79 | 320 | 24.7% | 23.3% | 330 |
| 10.5 | 43 | 210 | 20.5% | 22.2% | 350 |
| 11 | 56 | 217 | 25.8% | 21.2% | 372 |
| 11.5 | 38 | 142 | 26.8% | 20.2% | 395 |
| 12 | 37 | 179 | 20.7% | 19.3% | 419 |
| 12.5 | 38 | 176 | 21.6% | 18.4% | 445 |
| 13 | 42 | 237 | 17.7% | 17.5% | 472 |
| 13.5 | 42 | 210 | 20.0% | 16.6% | 501 |
| 14 | 56 | 328 | 17.1% | 15.8% | 532 |
| 14.5 | 28 | 194 | 14.4% | 15.0% | 565 |
| 15 | 19 | 157 | 12.1% | 14.3% | 599 |
| 15.5 | 20 | 123 | 16.3% | 13.6% | 636 |
| 16 | 22 | 171 | 12.9% | 12.9% | 675 |
| 16.5 | 14 | 144 | 9.7% | 12.2% | 717 |
| 17 | 29 | 239 | 12.1% | 11.6% | 761 |
| 17.5 | 17 | 134 | 12.7% | 11.0% | 808 |
| 18 | 8 | 121 | 6.6% | 10.4% | 858 |
| 18.5 | 6 | 89 | 6.7% | 9.9% | 910 |
| 19 | 18 | 142 | 12.7% | 9.4% | 966 |
| 19.5 | 10 | 83 | 12.0% | 8.9% | 1,026 |
| 20 | 9 | 136 | 6.6% | 8.4% | 1,089 |
| 20.5 | 12 | 109 | 11.0% | 8.0% | 1,156 |
| 21 | 10 | 138 | 7.2% | 7.5% | 1,227 |
| 21.5 | 4 | 94 | 4.3% | 7.1% | 1,303 |
| 22 | 5 | 128 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 1,383 |
| 22.5 | 7 | 71 | 9.9% | 6.4% | 1,468 |
| 23 | 7 | 115 | 6.1% | 6.0% | 1,558 |
| 23.5 | 5 | 76 | 6.6% | 5.7% | 1,654 |
| 24 | 6 | 122 | 4.9% | 5.4% | 1,756 |
| 24.5 | 3 | 68 | 4.4% | 5.1% | 1,864 |
| 25 | 5 | 62 | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1,978 |
| 25.5 | 2 | 61 | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2,100 |
| 26 | 1 | 78 | 1.3% | 4.3% | 2,229 |
| 26.5 | 4 | 55 | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2,366 |
| 27 | 1 | 79 | 1.3% | 3.8% | 2,512 |
| 27.5 | 2 | 56 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2,666 |
| 28 | 6 | 93 | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2,830 |
| 28.5 | 2 | 41 | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3,004 |
| 29 | 1 | 52 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3,189 |
| 29.5 | 1 | 38 | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3,385 |
| 30 | 1 | 52 | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3,594 |
| 30.5 | 3 | 33 | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3,815 |
| 31 | 2 | 58 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4,049 |