On this page

College Football Money Lines

Introduction

I rarely find what I believe to be a good bet on an underdog on the money line. The following chart shows the probability of winning by point spread, based on historical data (from 1983 to 2005).

 

The following table shows the actual data. The estimated probability of winning is based on smoothing out the ups and downs. The fair money line is based on the estimated probability of winning. This table does not factor in "key numbers" in the NFL. In other words, some margin of victories are much more likely than others, especially 3 and 7. It is a much bigger handicap to be given 3.5 points compared to 2.5, thus the 3.5-point underdog is going to have a significantly lower chance of winning compared to a 2.5-point underdog. I'll leave adjustment to the reader (sorry).

Compare Online NFL Odds

nfl_icon.png American Football : NFL
This Week
Upcoming matches Game Money Line Spread Total Featured Insight
Thu Nov 21st 8pm Cleveland Browns - Pittsburgh Steelers BetOnline.ag

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20.
176
William Hill (US) -110 (3.5) Bovada

Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency

75% up to
$750

Players rated Bovada 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits.
-105 (37.5) ⇗10.00
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Carolina Panthers - Kansas City Chiefs MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
480
William Hill (US) -110 (11) Bovada

Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency

75% up to
$750

Players rated Bovada 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits.
-105 (43)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Chicago Bears - Minnesota Vikings William Hill (US) 162 BetUS

Sign Up Bonus

125% up to
$2500

Players rated BetUS 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
105 (3)
William Hill (US) -110 (39.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Washington Commanders - Dallas Cowboys BetOnline.ag

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20.
-525
BetUS

Sign Up Bonus

125% up to
$2500

Players rated BetUS 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
-105 (-10.5)
BetOnline.ag

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20.
-107 (45)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Indianapolis Colts - Detroit Lions BetMGM

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetMGM Casino NJ 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit: $10.   Plus, get a $25 Casino Bonus on the house. The casino Bonus received from this Promotion is subject to a wagering requirement. Wagering requirement contributions are based on the specific casino game being wagered on. Please see the Wagering Requirements section for more details. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. MI, NJ, PA or WV only. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable site credit, unless otherwise provided in the applicable Terms. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling Problem? 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV).
310
Bovada

Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency

75% up to
$750

Players rated Bovada 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits.
-105 (7)
William Hill (US) -110 (50)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Houston Texans - Tennessee Titans BetOnline.ag

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20.
-385
BetUS

Sign Up Bonus

125% up to
$2500

Players rated BetUS 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
105 (-9)
BetOnline.ag

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20.
-108 (40.5)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm Miami Dolphins - New England Patriots BetOnline.ag

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20.
-350
MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
-105 (-7.5)
William Hill (US) -110 (46)
Sun Nov 24th 1pm New York Giants - Tampa Bay Buccaneers BetUS

Sign Up Bonus

125% up to
$2500

Players rated BetUS 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
223
William Hill (US) -105 (6) William Hill (US) -110 (41.5)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Las Vegas Raiders - Denver Broncos BetUS

Sign Up Bonus

125% up to
$2500

Players rated BetUS 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
235
William Hill (US) -110 (6) William Hill (US) -110 (41)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Arizona Cardinals - Seattle Seahawks William Hill (US) -105 BetUS

Sign Up Bonus

125% up to
$2500

Players rated BetUS 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry.
-105 (0)
William Hill (US) -110 (47.5)
Sun Nov 24th 4pm Green Bay Packers - San Francisco 49ers BetMGM

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetMGM Casino NJ 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit: $10.   Plus, get a $25 Casino Bonus on the house. The casino Bonus received from this Promotion is subject to a wagering requirement. Wagering requirement contributions are based on the specific casino game being wagered on. Please see the Wagering Requirements section for more details. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. MI, NJ, PA or WV only. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable site credit, unless otherwise provided in the applicable Terms. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling Problem? 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV).
-125
William Hill (US) -105 (-2) William Hill (US) -110 (47.5)
Next Week
Upcoming matches Game Money Line Spread Total Featured Insight
Sun Nov 24th 8pm Los Angeles Rams - Philadelphia Eagles BetMGM

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetMGM Casino NJ 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit: $10.   Plus, get a $25 Casino Bonus on the house. The casino Bonus received from this Promotion is subject to a wagering requirement. Wagering requirement contributions are based on the specific casino game being wagered on. Please see the Wagering Requirements section for more details. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. MI, NJ, PA or WV only. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable site credit, unless otherwise provided in the applicable Terms. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling Problem? 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV).
130
BetOnline.ag

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20.
-101 (2.5)
Bovada

Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency

75% up to
$750

Players rated Bovada 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits.
-105 (49)
Mon Nov 25th 8pm Los Angeles Chargers - Baltimore Ravens William Hill (US) 130 MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
-115 (3)
Bovada

Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency

75% up to
$750

Players rated Bovada 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits.
-105 (51)
Thu Nov 28th 12pm Detroit Lions - Chicago Bears BetMGM

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetMGM Casino NJ 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit: $10.   Plus, get a $25 Casino Bonus on the house. The casino Bonus received from this Promotion is subject to a wagering requirement. Wagering requirement contributions are based on the specific casino game being wagered on. Please see the Wagering Requirements section for more details. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. MI, NJ, PA or WV only. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable site credit, unless otherwise provided in the applicable Terms. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling Problem? 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV).
-200
BetOnline.ag

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20.
100 (-10.5)
William Hill (US) -110 (48.5)
Thu Nov 28th 4pm Dallas Cowboys - New York Giants William Hill (US) -145 William Hill (US) -110 (-2.5) William Hill (US) -110 (39.5)
Thu Nov 28th 8pm Green Bay Packers - Miami Dolphins BetMGM

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetMGM Casino NJ 3.1 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit: $10.   Plus, get a $25 Casino Bonus on the house. The casino Bonus received from this Promotion is subject to a wagering requirement. Wagering requirement contributions are based on the specific casino game being wagered on. Please see the Wagering Requirements section for more details. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. MI, NJ, PA or WV only. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable site credit, unless otherwise provided in the applicable Terms. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling Problem? 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV).
-155
William Hill (US) -110 (-3.5) William Hill (US) -110 (47.5)
Fri Nov 29th 3pm Kansas City Chiefs - Las Vegas Raiders William Hill (US) -355 BetOnline.ag

Sign Up Bonus

100% up to
$1000

Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 3 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20.
100 (-12.5)
William Hill (US) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Minnesota Vikings - Arizona Cardinals MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
-208
William Hill (US) -110 (-3.5) William Hill (US) -110 (47)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Atlanta Falcons - Los Angeles Chargers MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
102
William Hill (US) -110 (1.5) William Hill (US) -110 (47)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Cincinnati Bengals - Pittsburgh Steelers MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
-132
William Hill (US) -110 (-1.5) William Hill (US) -110 (47.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Jacksonville Jaguars - Houston Texans MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
240
William Hill (US) -105 (6.5) William Hill (US) -110 (42.5)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm New England Patriots - Indianapolis Colts William Hill (US) 152 William Hill (US) 100 (2.5) William Hill (US) -110 (43)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm New York Jets - Seattle Seahawks MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
-124
William Hill (US) -110 (-1.5) William Hill (US) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 1st 1pm Washington Commanders - Tennessee Titans MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
-360
William Hill (US) -110 (-7) William Hill (US) -110 (44.5)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm Carolina Panthers - Tampa Bay Buccaneers MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
236
William Hill (US) -110 (6.5) William Hill (US) -110 (44)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm New Orleans Saints - Los Angeles Rams MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
110
William Hill (US) 100 (2.5) William Hill (US) -110 (46.5)
Sun Dec 1st 4pm Baltimore Ravens - Philadelphia Eagles MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
-159
William Hill (US) -105 (-3) William Hill (US) -110 (50.5)
Next Month
Upcoming matches Game Money Line Spread Total Featured Insight
Sun Dec 1st 8pm Buffalo Bills - San Francisco 49ers MyBookie.ag

Sign Up Bonus

50% up to
$1000

Players rated MyBookie 3.6 out of 5 Stars
Claim
New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50.
-179
William Hill (US) -110 (-3.5) William Hill (US) -110 (47)
Mon Dec 2nd 7pm Denver Broncos - Cleveland Browns William Hill (US) 135 William Hill (US) -110 (-6.5) William Hill (US) -110 (40.5)

To find the fair money line on a favorite, just multiply by -1. For example, a 7-point underdog shows an estimated probability of winning of 30.2%, which corresponds to a fair money line of +231. Thus, a 7-point favorite would have a 69.8% chance of winning, for a fair money line of -231.

 

Probability of Winning in the NFL by Point Spread

Spread Wins Loses Actual Probability Estimated Probability Fair Money Line
0 472 944 50.0% 50.0% 100
1.5 132 284 46.5% 45.5% 120
2 141 280 50.4% 44.1% 127
2.5 164 376 43.6% 42.6% 135
3 246 540 45.6% 41.1% 143
3.5 134 358 37.4% 39.7% 152
4 135 337 40.1% 38.3% 161
4.5 93 259 35.9% 36.9% 171
5 74 213 34.7% 35.5% 182
5.5 101 294 34.4% 34.1% 193
6 109 343 31.8% 32.8% 205
6.5 121 383 31.6% 31.5% 217
7 146 493 29.6% 30.2% 231
7.5 84 332 25.3% 29.0% 245
8 73 243 30.0% 27.8% 260
8.5 67 227 29.5% 26.6% 276
9 62 225 27.6% 25.5% 293
9.5 64 250 25.6% 24.3% 311
10 79 320 24.7% 23.3% 330
10.5 43 210 20.5% 22.2% 350
11 56 217 25.8% 21.2% 372
11.5 38 142 26.8% 20.2% 395
12 37 179 20.7% 19.3% 419
12.5 38 176 21.6% 18.4% 445
13 42 237 17.7% 17.5% 472
13.5 42 210 20.0% 16.6% 501
14 56 328 17.1% 15.8% 532
14.5 28 194 14.4% 15.0% 565
15 19 157 12.1% 14.3% 599
15.5 20 123 16.3% 13.6% 636
16 22 171 12.9% 12.9% 675
16.5 14 144 9.7% 12.2% 717
17 29 239 12.1% 11.6% 761
17.5 17 134 12.7% 11.0% 808
18 8 121 6.6% 10.4% 858
18.5 6 89 6.7% 9.9% 910
19 18 142 12.7% 9.4% 966
19.5 10 83 12.0% 8.9% 1,026
20 9 136 6.6% 8.4% 1,089
20.5 12 109 11.0% 8.0% 1,156
21 10 138 7.2% 7.5% 1,227
21.5 4 94 4.3% 7.1% 1,303
22 5 128 3.9% 6.7% 1,383
22.5 7 71 9.9% 6.4% 1,468
23 7 115 6.1% 6.0% 1,558
23.5 5 76 6.6% 5.7% 1,654
24 6 122 4.9% 5.4% 1,756
24.5 3 68 4.4% 5.1% 1,864
25 5 62 8.1% 4.8% 1,978
25.5 2 61 3.3% 4.5% 2,100
26 1 78 1.3% 4.3% 2,229
26.5 4 55 7.3% 4.1% 2,366
27 1 79 1.3% 3.8% 2,512
27.5 2 56 3.6% 3.6% 2,666
28 6 93 6.5% 3.4% 2,830
28.5 2 41 4.9% 3.2% 3,004
29 1 52 1.9% 3.0% 3,189
29.5 1 38 2.6% 2.9% 3,385
30 1 52 1.9% 2.7% 3,594
30.5 3 33 9.1% 2.6% 3,815
31 2 58 3.4% 2.4% 4,049