Path to Victory

Introduction

Path to Victory is a unique dice game that I noticed at the Light & Wonder booth at the 2025 Global Gaming Expo. It is difficult to compare to any other game, so please see the rules for how to play.

 

Rules

The following shows how the game is played. The player may bet on the possible game ending outcomes.

1. Two ordinary six-side dice are used.
2. A puck starts at a zero position on a layout numbered 0 to 14.
3. The two dice are rolled. The absolute difference between the two dice is noted. For example, if the dice rolled a 2 and 5, then the difference would be 3.
4. If the difference is zero, in other words a double was rolled, then the game shall be over.
5. Otherwise, the puck shall advanced on the layout the number of points from rule 3.
6. Otherwise, if after rule 5 the puck is in position 10 to 14, then the game shall be over.
7. Otherwise, if the puck is in position 1 to 9, then go to rule 3.

The following are the available bets on the final game outcome.

1. 1 — Game ends with puck at position 1 — Pays 20 to 1
2. 2 — Game ends with puck at position 2 — Pays 18 to 1
3. 3 — Game ends with puck at position 3 — Pays 17 to 1
4. 4 — Game ends with puck at position 4 — Pays 17 to 1
5. 5 — Game ends with puck at position 5 — Pays 18 to 1
6. 6 — Game ends with puck at position 6 — Pays 22 to 1
7. 7 — Game ends with puck at position 7 — Pays 22 to 1
8. 8 — Game ends with puck at position 8 — Pays 25 to 1
9. 9 — Game ends with puck at position 9 — Pays 25 to 1
10. 10 — Game ends with puck at position 10 — Pays 4 to 1
11. 11 — Game ends with puck at position 11 — Pays 7 to 1
12. 12 — Game ends with puck at position 12 — Pays 12 to 1
13. 13 — Game ends with puck at position 13 — Pays 25 to 1
14. 14 — Game ends with puck at position 14 — Pays 80 to 1
15. Path — Wins if the puck reaches position 10 to 14 — Pays 4 to 1 for reaching 14, 3 to 1 for reaching 13 and 1 to 1 for reaching 10-12.
16. Bust — Wins if double are rolled at any time — Pays 1 to 1 for any double except on the first roll, which results in a push.
17. Doubles — Game will ends on a specific double (1-1 to 6-6)

The following are the available bets on each roll of the dice.

1. Different of 0 — Pays 4 to 1
2. Different of 1 — Pays 2 to 1
3. Different of 2 — Pays 3 to 1
4. Different of 3 — Pays 4 to 1
5. Different of 4 — Pays 7 to 1
6. Different of 5 — Pays 15 to 1

Analysis

 

The following table shows the probability and return from all bets on the final game outcome.

Bet	Pays	Probability	Return
1	20	0.046296	-0.027778
2	18	0.049897	-0.051955
3	17	0.051926	-0.065329
4	17	0.051747	-0.068559
5	18	0.048633	-0.075978
6	22	0.041779	-0.039086
7	22	0.039579	-0.089692
8	25	0.037018	-0.037529
9	25	0.034320	-0.107689
10	4	0.190199	-0.049005
11	7	0.123090	-0.015282
12	12	0.072191	-0.061513
13	25	0.035219	-0.084302
14	80	0.011440	-0.073369
Path	Varies	0.432139	-0.030964
Bust	Varies	0.567861	-0.030945
Doubles	9	0.094643	-0.053565

 

The following table shows the probability and return from all single roll bets on the difference between the two dice.

Bet	Pays	Probability	Return
0	4	0.166667	-0.166667
1	2	0.277778	-0.166667
2	3	0.222222	-0.111111
3	4	0.166667	-0.166667
4	7	0.111111	-0.111111
5	15	0.055556	-0.111111

 

Path Wager Analysis

The following table shows the probability and contribution to the return of all possible outcomes of the Path wager. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 3.10%.

Event	Pays	Probability	Return
14	4	0.011440	0.045760
13	3	0.035219	0.105657
10 to 12	1	0.385480	0.385480
Bust	-1	0.567861	-0.567861
Total		1.000000	-0.030964

 

Bust Wager Analysis

The following table shows the probability and contribution to the return of all possible outcomes of the Bust wager. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 3.09%.

Event	Pays	Probability	Return
Doubles after first roll	1	0.401194	0.401194
Double on first roll	0	0.166667	0.000000
No bust	-1	0.432139	-0.432139
Total		1.000000	-0.030945

 

Written by: Michael Shackleford