Replay -- Craps Side Bet

Introduction

Replay is a craps side bet I spotted at the Boulder Station on September 16, 2010. It pays if the shooter makes the same point at least three times before sevening out.

Rules

The bet starts with a new shooter and ends with a seven-out. The following table shows the pay table. Wins are on a "to one" basis.

Replay Pay Table

Event	Pays
Point of 4 or 10 achieved four or more times	1000
Point of 5 or 9 achieved four or more times	500
Point of 4 or 10 achieved three times	120
Point of 6 or 8 achieved four or more times	100
Point of 5 or 9 achieved three times	95
Point of 6 or 8 achieved three times	70

Analysis

The following table shows my analysis of the Replay bet. The lower right corner shows a house edge of 24.81%.

Replay Return Table

Event	Pays	Probability	Return
Point of 4 or 10 achieved four or more times	1000	0.00003691863657	0.03691863656821
Point of 5 or 9 achieved four or more times	500	0.00020671490002	0.10335745001061
Point of 4 or 10 achieved three times	120	0.00052298052124	0.06275766254895
Point of 6 or 8 achieved four or more times	100	0.00069820960363	0.06982096036327
Point of 5 or 9 achieved three times	95	0.00179993294223	0.17099362951155
Point of 6 or 8 achieved three times	70	0.00429327448455	0.30052921391822
Loser	-1	0.99244196891176	-0.99244196891176
Total		1.00000000000000	-0.24806441599095

Methodology

Integral calculus was used to analyze this bet, thus the results accurate to as many decimal places stated. A random simulation was also done to confirm the results, which matched to within 0.03% of return.

I have a ten-page PDF document that details my analysis of the Replay bet.

Written by: Michael Shackleford

Wizard Recommends

On this page