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Bonus Craps Progressive
Introduction
The Bonus Craps Progressive is a craps side bet I noticed at the Stratosphere on November 22, 2021. It wins if the shooter rolls at least five unique totals before rolling a seven or repeating a number. While I noticed the side bet on a Crapless Craps game, it could work equally as well in conventional craps.
Rules
Following are the rules for Bonus Craps Progressive. For those already familiar with the All bet in Bonus Craps, note the addition of the rule that the shooter may not repeat a total already rolled.
- Two ordinary six-sided dice are used.
- The bet amount is a fixed $5.
- After betting is closed, the dice will be rolled until one of the following events occur:
- A total of seven is rolled.
- Any total is rolled twice.
- As the shooter rolls, the dealers shall make note of the totals rolled.
- When a bet-ending events occur, listed above, the dealer shall pay players according to number of rolls, not counting the bet ending roll. The pay table is shown below.
- The win for achieving every possible total, except seven, is progressive. The jackpot shall be shared between all players who made the bet.
The following is the pay table. Wins are on a "for one" basis.
Return Table
| Rolls | Pays |
|---|---|
| 10 | Jackpot |
| 9 | $1,500 |
| 8 | $250 |
| 7 | $50 |
| 6 | $25 |
| 5 | $10 |
Analysis
The following table shows the probability and contribution to the return for all possible outcomes, except the jackpot. The return is the ratio of the expected win to $5, the cost of the bet. All wins are on a "for one" basis.
The table shows us that before considering the jackpot, the player can expect to get back 45.99% of his original wager for all other wins.
Return Table
| Rolls | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ? | 17,500 | 0.000014 | ? |
| 9 | $1,500.00 | 270,200 | 0.000221 | 0.066202 |
| 8 | $250.00 | 1,971,130 | 0.001610 | 0.080491 |
| 7 | $50.00 | 9,057,545 | 0.007397 | 0.073973 |
| 6 | $25.00 | 29,509,650 | 0.024101 | 0.120503 |
| 5 | $10.00 | 72,679,275 | 0.059357 | 0.118714 |
| 4 or less | $0 | 1,110,934,764 | 0.907300 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 1,224,440,064 | 1.000000 | 0.459883 + ? |
The following table shows the expected return per $1,000 in the meter and breakeven jackpot (where the expected return is exactly 100%) according to the number of players making the bet (including yourself).
Jackpot
| Players | Value per $1,000 | Breakeven Meter |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.43% | $188,954.66 |
| 2 | 0.71% | $377,909.32 |
| 3 | 0.48% | $566,863.98 |
| 4 | 0.36% | $755,818.64 |
| 5 | 0.29% | $944,773.31 |
| 6 | 0.24% | $1,133,727.97 |
| 7 | 0.20% | $1,322,682.63 |
| 8 | 0.18% | $1,511,637.29 |
| 9 | 0.16% | $1,700,591.95 |
| 10 | 0.14% | $1,889,546.61 |
| 11 | 0.13% | $2,078,501.27 |
| 12 | 0.12% | $2,267,455.93 |