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Brog

Introduction

Brog is a novel casino game that can be found at the 7 Luck Casino in South Korea. It is said to be loosely based on the glass bridge game from the Squid Game. In Brog, instead of a glass bridge, the player must predict which of two cards in up to 2 to 4 rounds will be higher. One wrong guess and you're out.


Image source: Netflix

 

Rules

  1. The game uses a six-deck shoe or normal 52-card decks.
  2. The rank of the cards does not matter, only the suit.
  3. The rank order of the suits, from highest to lowest, is spades, diamonds, hearts, clubs.
  4. There are five betting opportunities as follows:
    • Round 1 — Player chooses Blue or Red
    • Round 2 — Player chooses Blue or Red
    • Round 3 — Player chooses Blue or Red
    • Round 4 — Player chooses Blue or Red
    • Option side bet — Player chooses Blue, Red or both
  5. The player must make equal bets on Rounds 1 and 2. Betting on rounds 3 and 4 are optional.
  6. If the player bets on Round 3 or Round 4, the wagers must equal those for Round 1 and 2.
  7. The Option is a side bet.
  8. After wagering is closed, the dealer will deal four cards each to a Blue side or Red side.
  9. Starting with round 1, the dealer will then turn over one card each from the Red side and Blue side.
  10. If the chosen side has, Red or Blue, the higher suit, then the player shall be paid the odds according to that Round as follows:
    • Round 1 — 1 to 1
    • Round 2 — 2 to 1
    • Round 3 — 5 to 1
    • Round 4 — 10 to 1
  11. In addition, winning bets on Rounds 1 to 3 shall advance to the next Round.
  12. If the chosen side has, Red or Blue, have the same suit, then the wager on that Round shall push, but the player will advance to the next level.
  13. If the chosen side has, Red or Blue, have the lower suit, then the wager on that Round shall lose as well as wagers on all subsequent levels.
  14. This process repeats until there is a loss or the player wins/ties all four rounds.
  15. The Option side bet also has Red and Blue sides. If all four cards in the chosen side are the same suit, the player wins and is paid 60 to 1. All other outcomes lose.

General Analysis

Each round has the following probabilities for a recreational player.

  • Win = 37.62%
  • Tie = 24.76%
  • Loss = 37.62%

 

Round 1 and 2 Analysis

 

Round 1 Round 2 Pays Probability Return
Win Win 3 0.141531 0.424592
Win Tie 1 0.093144 0.093144
Win Loss   0.141531 0.000000
Tie Win 2 0.093144 0.186288
Tie Tie 0 0.061300 0.000000
Tie Loss -1 0.093144 -0.093144
Loss   -2 0.376206 -0.752412
Total     1.000000 -0.141531

 

The expected loss if the players bets Round 1 and 2 only is 14.15% of one bet. Considering the player's total bet is two units, we divide by 2, to get a house edge of 14.15%/2 = 7.088%.

 

Round 1 to 3 Analysis

 

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Pays Probability Return
Win Win Win 8 0.053245 0.425958
Win Win Tie 3 0.035041 0.105124
Win Win Loss 2 0.053245 0.106489
Win Tie Win 6 0.035041 0.210248
Win Tie Tie 1 0.023061 0.023061
Win Tie Loss 0 0.035041 0.000000
Win Loss   -1 0.141531 -0.141531
Tie Win Win 7 0.035041 0.245290
Tie Win Tie 2 0.023061 0.046123
Tie Win Loss 1 0.035041 0.035041
Tie Tie Win 5 0.023061 0.115307
Tie Tie Tie 0 0.015177 0.000000
Tie Tie Loss -1 0.023061 -0.023061
Tie Loss   -2 0.093144 -0.186288
Loss     -3 0.376206 -1.128617
Total       1.000000 -0.166856

 

The expected loss if the players bets Round 1 to 3 is 16.69% of one bet. Considering the player's total bet is three units, we divide by 3, to get a house edge of 16.69%/3=5.56%.

 

Round 1 to 4 Analysis

 

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Pays Probability Return

The expected loss if the players bets Round 1 and 2 only is 14.15% of one bet. Considering the player's total bet is two units, we divide by 2, to get a house edge of 14.15%/2 = 7.088%.

 

Round 1 to 4 Analysis

 

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Pays Probability Return
Win Win Win Win 18 0.020031 0.360557
Win Win Win Tie 8 0.013183 0.105462
Win Win Win Loss 7 0.020031 0.140217
Win Win Tie Win 13 0.013183 0.171376
Win Win Tie Tie 3 0.008676 0.026028
Win Win Tie Loss 2 0.013183 0.026366
Win Win Loss   1 0.053245 0.053245
Win Tie Win Win 16 0.013183 0.210924
Win Tie Win Tie 6 0.008676 0.052055
Win Tie Win Loss 5 0.013183 0.065914
Win Tie Tie Win 11 0.008676 0.095434
Win Tie Tie Tie 1 0.005710 0.005710
Win Tie Tie Loss 0 0.008676 0.000000
Win Tie Loss   -1 0.035041 -0.035041
Win Loss     -2 0.141531 -0.283062
Tie Win Win Win 17 0.013183 0.224107
Tie Win Win Tie 7 0.008676 0.060731
Tie Win Win Loss 6 0.013183 0.079097
Tie Win Tie Win 12 0.008676 0.104110
Tie Win Tie Tie 2 0.005710 0.011419
Tie Win Tie Loss 1 0.008676 0.008676
Tie Win Loss   0 0.035041 0.000000
Tie Tie Win Win 15 0.008676 0.130138
Tie Tie Win Tie 5 0.005710 0.028549
Tie Tie Win Loss 4 0.008676 0.034703
Tie Tie Tie Win 10 0.005710 0.057097
Tie Tie Tie Tie   0.003758 0.000000
Tie Tie Tie Loss -1 0.005710 -0.005710
Tie Tie Loss   -2 0.023061 -0.046123
Tie Loss     -3 0.093144 -0.279433
Loss       -4 0.376206 -1.504823
Total         1.000000 -0.102277

 

The expected loss if the players bets Round 1 to 4 is 10.23% of one bet. Considering the player's total bet is four units, we divide by 4, to get a house edge of 10.23%/4=2.56%.

 

Option Analysis

 

The following is my analysis of the Option side bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 10.13%.

Event Pays Probability Return
Win 60 0.014733 0.883967
Loss -1 0.985267 -0.985267
Total   1.000000 -0.101300

Strategy

I recommend making the bet with the lowest house edge, which is all four rounds.

A very small cut in the house edge could be achieved by mixing up the sides bet on. This is because the effect of removal of low ranking suits on one side means there are more high ranking suits left. However, with six decks, the benefit is minimal.

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Written by: Michael Shackleford